SUSIE GHARIB: Stocks on Wall Street continue their steady climb higher today. The Dow rose 36 points and the NASDAQ added 42, staying above the 4,000 level. But, investors gave Bausch & Lomb a black-eye today. The stock of the contact lens maker dropped $20, or more than 35 percent. The sell-off came on news of an earnings warning: full-year earnings will be much lower than expectations, somewhere in the range of $2.69 to $2.72. Analysts were expecting $3.15. The company also fired its president. It blames all this on slower growth in vision care, pricing pressures, supply problems, and a weak euro. But analysts say the problems at Bausch & Lomb run deeper than that.

JOANNE WUENSCH, V.P., ING BARINGS: I don't think that there will be one quick fix. I think this will be a period of time that we'll see it evolve over. What I'm really looking for is a plan on how to attack it, so that we have measurable periods that we can say, "they promised that they would do this, and guess what? This is what has been done." They need to rebuild the business and rebuild the credibility.

GHARIB: Wuensch downgraded Bausch & Lomb today from buy to "hold." She says she's taking a wait- and-see attitude on the stock.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


08/24/2000: The Business Of Weather Forecasting

SUSIE GHARIB: Residents of Florida are breathing a little easier tonight, now that what used to be Hurricane Debby, is just rainy weather over Cuba. But for days, South Floridians watched the storm, and they weren't alone. As Darren Gersh reports, predicting the weather is becoming a big business.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Just the threat of a hurricane was enough to send homeowners in south Florida to the hardware store. Oil companies with operations in the Gulf of Mexico were also on alert, but they could do more than just watch Debby on television. All week, energy companies have been calling here, to Earthsat, one of a growing number of private weather forecasters, for specific information about how the storm might affect their rigs. Earthsat CEO, Douglas Hall says private weather forecasting is a $250 million business.

DOUGLAS HALL, CEO, EARTHSAT: When we've talked to chief financial officers and made some sales' pitches, the chief financial officers tell us that, in many cases, weather is either their number-one risk factor, or in the top-two or -three.

GERSH: Demand for private weather forecasts is booming, as companies, cities, and even amusement parks have all come to realize that the weather is one of the greatest risks they face. Even a little rain can pour red ink on the bottom line. The National Weather Service has focused much of its effort on predicting dangerous weather, like hurricanes or tornadoes. So private companies are filling a need for more targeted forecasts. Most government forecasts are updated every 12 hours, but private companies provide the hourly updates needed, for example, to predict demand for electricity. Forecasts can also be weighted by population or geography. Prompted by deregulation, utility companies like PG&E (PCG) have become big weather customers

SARAH BARPOULIS, SR. VP, TRADING, PG&E ENERGY TRADING-POWER: Weather is, is probably "the" most critical variable to how we manage our portfolio on a short-term basis. And accurate timely weather data can mean millions of dollars a year to an energy corporation.

GERSH: Thanks to more powerful computers and better satellite imagery, weather forecasts of up to 10 days are now more accurate. But longer-range forecasts that would be most useful to businesses are another matter.

PAUL KNIGHT, METEOROLOGIST, PENN STATE UNIVERSITY: There's no question that the forecast in the period from 10 to 20 days is still experimental. But there'senough skill being demonstrated, especially towards the outlier events - that is, the unusual events that it's worth the gamble. Now it doesn't always work out, but, you know, that's how it goes in the financial world, too.

GERSH: But it is becoming increasingly clear that for many businesses, an accurate weather forecast can help with another important forecast: earnings. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

08/24/2000: Is It Time To Take Stock In Latin America?

SUSIE GHARIB: Also In Washington today, Mexico's new president, Vicente Fox met with President Clinton and Vice President Gore. Topping the agenda: Fox's plan for open borders between Mexico and the United States. But beyond that, experts say that Fox's presence means that political stability for Mexico and improved investment prospects there. Suzanne Pratt takes a closer look at Mexico and Latin America's growing popularity with American investors.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The election of opposition candidate, Vicente Fox is considered "proof" that modern democracy can exist in Mexico. And with it comes at least the perception of a stable political situation, one that should give international investors greater confidence. But beyond politics, experts say Mexico's robust economy and better-than-ever inflation is another reason U.S. investors should begin to take a closer look, south of the border.

GEOFFREY DENNIS, LATIN AMERICA EQUITY STRATEGIST, SALOMON SMITH BARNEY: You're probably going to get some sort of a rally in the Mexican market as you go into the fall because this is also set against the background where the economy is quite strong, and I think once you get into the third-quarter results' season as well, that should fire up a bit of interest in the Mexican market, also.

PRATT: The outlook for Mexico's stock market may be greatly improved. But so far this year, it's meant nada, or nothing, in returns. On a year-to-date basis, and in dollar terms, the Mexican market is down about 9 percent, while neighbors Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Peru haven't fared much better. But most experts agree the investment climate may soon improve dramatically for Brazil. In fact, most say right now Brazil may be even more attractive than Mexico. That's because Latin America's other big economy may be at its best in decades. For Latin American strategist Todd Edwards, Brazil is his top pick.

TODD EDWARDS, EQUITY STRATEGIST, BBVA SECURITIES: It's a pretty amazing story really and has surprised everyone by how great it has been. The economy is growing faster than everyone expected. Inflation is coming down much faster than anyone ever anticipated.

PRATT: For Latin America's smaller, more anemic economies, the outlook is far less rosy, in part because political turmoil overrides investment prospects and also because of a loss of liquidity in capital markets.

DENNIS: That's a real vicious circle because once liquidity levels decline, investors seem to want to be less and less involved in the market because obviously low liquidity represents a certain amount of risk if you can't sell the stocks you own when you want to.

PRATT: In order for U.S. investment dollars to flow into Latin America, experts say conditions here in the U.S. also need to be just right. Those include a soft landing for the U.S. economy and less volatility for U.S. stocks. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

08/24/2000: Prime Mover: Kenneth Westrick, CEO New Focus

SUSIE GHARIB: New Focus (NUFO) is focusing on the lucrative Internet fiber optics market. It makes the equipment for next generation optical networks. Its President and CEO is Kenneth Westrick. The company has been in business for 10 years, but it's still losing money. But investors still cheered when New Focus came public in May. The stock was priced at $20 a share and shot up to $51 the first day. In tonight's prime movers segment, Donald van de Mark of Myprimetime.com asks Westrick why New Focus went ahead with its IPO when many high tech companies were running scared.

KENNETH WESTRICK, PRESIDENT & CEO, NEW FOCUS: We'd always believed that we were building New Focus really for long term success and perhaps in some ways, in a perverse way, it was actually a very attractive environment for us because we were able to go on the road and I think distinguish ourselves, because it really is only the strongest companies that can go out in this kind of environment. And so I think our philosophy of building for the long term really came into play and frankly we probably got a little bit more attention than we would have being one of the few companies out there.

DONALD VAN DE MARK, MYPRIMETIME.COM: Your stock has enjoyed, at least for now anyway, a meteoric rise. There's a lot of expectations about this end of the high tech world, optical components. How fast can you grow?

WESTRICK: The industry is growing generally 100 percent a year and a company like New Focus, still being a small company focused on leading edge products that enable next generation optical networks, really has, in many ways, unlimited growth. So, you know, where we can take it, we'll see, but we are experiencing very rapid year over year growth.

VAN DE MARK: What do you make of valuations that are given companies like yours, sometimes even 50 times revenues for companies like yours?

WESTRICK: Valuations are always kind of a difficult subject, meaning that it's really, in my mind, up to Wall Street to sort out what a company like New Focus and other companies are worth. What we try to do here is just really focus on the long term, build value over the next years and I think that valuations will sort out. Clearly there's a lot of expectations of fiber optics companies. It comes back to the fact that the demand for bandwidth for the Internet is really insatiable. And so to the extent that companies like New Focus can deliver important components to the infrastructure, then investors get pretty excited about that.

VAN DE MARK: At what stage does the demand from the Internet stop being insatiable?

WESTRICK: Not for the foreseeable future. It just seems that when any of us, be it at home or at work, get more bandwidth, well, we want even more. So really we don't foresee a slowdown in the exponential growth.

VAN DE MARK: One thing that your competitors have done is that they've used their highly valued stock prices as a takeover currency. Could you comment on your willingness to buy other companies?

WESTRICK: What we've said is that, you know, the first order of business at New Focus is to work on building more product, to build out our manufacturing capacity, to work on automation and so on and so forth. So I think first we would look for investments in those areas that would actually help us to do that. Having said that, though, we certainly do have a currency where we could go out in the future and acquire companies and, as any other company in this space, we hear of various opportunities to do that and we look at them. We don't have any specific plans, but we do, of course, consider such things.

VAN DE MARK: Thank you very much for joining us.

WESTRICK: Certainly.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

08/24/2000: Commentary: Fear Of The Fed

SUSIE GHARIB: Investors on Wall Street seem to think that the Federal Reserve is finished raising rates, at least for the short term. But tonight's commentator isn't so quick to agree with that. Here's Alice Rivlin, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and former Co-Chair of Federal Reserve.

ALICE RIVLIN, COMMENTARY: One might think that having passed up their opportunity to raise interest rates on Tuesday, the members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee could take a long vacation and resurface around Christmas for another look at the economy. But don't count on it. It is by no means certain that the economy has settled onto a slower growth path or that inflation has died a timely death. Manufacturing continues strong and exports are rising. Consumers are ebullient and investment is flourishing. Companies are still complaining about how hard it is to find workers. With new technology still rolling out and optimism high, an economic rebound in the fall or winter shouldn't be counted out. Moreover, there's the oil price pushing up and the risk that factors counteracting wage and price increases, especially surging productivity growth and the strong dollar, may not continue to be so spectacularly helpful. If another interest rate increase seemed clearly warranted by October, would the Fed hold off because there happened to be an election? I doubt it. This FOMC is a dedicated bunch who see their role as keeping the economy on track without paying politics much mind. If they thought action were needed, I'd expect them to take it on the grounds that the country deserves their best judgment, whatever the political calendar. I'm Alice Rivlin.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


08/24/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: After a shallow opening sell-off which sent the Dow Industrial Average down some 20 points and the NASDAQ Index off only about seven, stocks on Wall Street stabilized and then began to firm up, thanks in part to a higher bond market and a growing conviction that interest rates will hold steady, at least for the rest of the year. With many investors away on summer vacations, trading volume was quite light, making the possibility of a strong rally rather remote. So any vivid moves in stocks were specific-company-related, such as that big drop in Bausch & Lomb shares. As a result, the Dow really had to struggle to post just a 20-point gain by midday, when the NASDAQ Index was up 26 points. Summer doldrums or not, the market added to its gains throughout slow afternoon trading, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a gain of 38.09 at 11,182.74. In today's nearly 78-point trading range, the Industrial Average closed down 15 points from the best level of the session, and up nearly 63 points from the low of the day. The NASDAQ Composite climbed 42.27 points, ending at 4,053.28. And in its 51-point range, the Composite Index settled about 49 points above its low of the session.

Big board volume 824 million shares. That's down about 40 million from yesterday's pace. And 10 million more shares of down volume than up volume.

The Dow Transport Index was up nearly 11 1/2 points making comeback from yesterday's sharp drop.

The Utility Index which hit a high yesterday down 5.70. A little profit-taking in that group.

The Closing Tick just modestly bullish at +135.

Standard & Poor's 500 up 2.34.

And in a statistical oddity, as they say, the S&P 100 also up 2.34.

The MidCap 400 hit a record high, as indicated by the asterisk, with that gain of 3 2/3 points.

The Bridge Futures Price Index edged up 0.63.

New York Stock Exchange Composite down 0.28.

But the Value Line up 1 2/3 points.

And almost a 5 1/2-point run-up on the Russell2000 Small Cap.

And the Wilshire 5000 up 47.66.

After the close, the Federal Reserve reported in the week ending August 14, the M-2 money supply fell $4.2 billion.

Laying a solid foundation for a firm bond market today was the report of a record 12.4 percent tumble in July durable goods orders. That was largely due to a sharp drop in aircraft orders. But it was still somewhat of a confirmation that the economy is slowing. Strong buying from foreign investors was a booster, as was a 49-cent-per-barrel drop in New York October oil futures.

Although tax free and corporate issues showed little change on the day, the Treasury market was modestly higher across the board.

The 5-year notes edging up 1/32.

The 10-year notes up 2/32, with the yield at 5.72 percent.

And the 30-year bond, a gain of 8/32.

The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index gained almost 3 points.

It looks like today it was the shareholders that raised most of the dough. Let's have a look at that Dow, up 38.09 and the advancing issues beat out the decliners by, oh, about 54 issues, a very narrow advance/decline ratio; 66 new yearly highs, 47 new lows.

Lucent Technologies (LU) on 14.6 million shares topped the active list, down $0.38.

Then Texas Instruments (TXN) continuing higher, up $1.69 today.

General Electric (GE) hit a new high, up $1.19.

Nokia (NOK) losing $0.44.

Motorola (MOT) dropped $1.00 exactly, fifth in volume on the big board.

Boeing (BA) had a good day, up $3.06 after the First Boston Brokerage said to increase positions in the stocks of aircraft manufacturers.

There we see Bausch & Lomb (BOL) tumbling 20. It traded as low as $34.81 on that earnings warning and the firing of its president.

America Online (AOL) a $2.00 gainer.

AT&T (T) was up $0.44.

And AT&T Liberty Media (LMG.A) down $0.56.

Amerada Hess (AHC) down $3.31 after Lehman Brothers downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral."

And Chevron (CHV) down $2.13, getting a downgrade from Morgan Stanley from "outperform" to just "neutral."

Computer Sciences (CSC) up $3.75. PaineWebber sees strong growth for the outlook in this company and rates it a "buy."

General Motors (GM) moved up $3.94, the best point gainer in the Dow. The only news I saw is Chief Financial Officer Michael Lausch is retiring as of September 1st.

International Rectifier (IRF) gained $2.94. The stock is going to be added to the Standard & Poor's Midcap 400 Index after the close next Wednesday. It'll replace Consolidated Paper (CDP).

And Maytag (MYG) moving up $3.69. The company reportedly is in talks to be acquired by Sweden's Electrolux (ELUX).

Stifel Financial (SF) up $1.88. Spokesman link the strength to consolidation in the financial services industry. He cited as an example today the fact that Advest (ADV) has agreed to be acquired by Money Group.

Celera Genomics Group (CRA) up $12.31. Renewed buying in the biotech sector very evident today.

And Doncasters PLC (DCS), a British firm, up $2.00. It's largest shareholder, Catoma Capital Partners , is urging the company to find a buyer, wants it to sell out.

Rent Way (RWY) next to Bausch & Lomb (BOL) was the biggest percentage loser after that, down $4.50. It's in the appliance rental business and the company did not return our calls.

Lamson and Sessions (LMS) dropped $2.75 on news the Gabelli Investment Group cut its stake from 10.1 percent down to 8.7 percent.

And Cooper Companies (COO) losing $3.25. Obviously, a negative reaction to the drop in Bausch & Lomb because this is also a company in the contact lens business, a sympathetic reaction.

NASDAQ trading, a gain of a little over 42 1/4 points. Volume up a bit from yesterday, 21 stocks higher for every 17 lower.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) topped the active list, down $0.69.

Intel (INTC) off $0.38.

And then Oracle (ORCL) up $1.81.

Broadcom (BRCM) had a decent day, up $3.70.

Microsoft (MSFT) edged up only $0.38, fifth in volume.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) gained $1.06.

Yahoo! (YHOO) a $6.00 gain.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) rose $2.13.

And then CIENA (CIEN) up $6.81 and sellers leveled the next level by $49.81. That's a 54 percent drop today. Lehman Brothers downgraded the stock from "buy" to just "neutral" on concern the company's large