SUSIE GHARIB: On Wall Street today, all the arrows pointed down. Earnings jitters pulled down the Dow by 39 points, and whacked the NASDAQ by about 120. The arrows were also down in the oil markets. Oil futures plunged almost $2 to below $34 a barrel. That was an upbeat reaction to comments from a key OPEC minister, ahead of this Sunday's meeting of oil-producing nations. As Darren Gersh reports, it looks like OPEC will pump more crude, but it might be too little to impact oil prices.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Today, oil traders finally got the message. OPEC is serious about pumping more oil to meet rising worldwide demand.

VAHAN ZANOYAN, CEO, PETROLEUM FINANCE CO.: Finally, there are some signals from the price hawks in OPEC that even they would not oppose a production increase to kind of bring some moderation to these prices.

GERSH: When they meet in Vienna, Sunday, OPEC oil ministers are expected to push official production up by as much as 700,000 barrels a day; but cheating by OPEC members is widespread, and the real amount of oil pumped could be much more. This isn't an act of energy kindness. Analysts say, OPEC nations are acting to maintain their market share.

ZANOYAN: A lot of them start to worry that this has gone too far; it is not sustainable. When prices go to this extent, then it will trigger a lot of new investment in the industry, and it will eventually have to bring more oil on the market from other producers.

GERSH: But at least one analyst is suggesting oil supplies may have already turned. According to Bear Stearns' energy analyst, Fred Leuffer, Asia has rebuilt its oil inventories, and OPEC has been increasing production throughout the year. Leuffer says there is now a lot of oil on the ocean, headed for the United States. That's why he predicts prices are headed for a sharp fall.

FRED LEUFFER, SR. ENERGY ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: As OPEC raises production at this meeting, and maybe even at follow-up meetings, they'll end up oversupplying the market, and the price of oil will decline faster and further than most people expect today.

GERSH: With oil inventories at a 24-year low, and oil tankers running at capacity, other analysts disagree. They argue with winter heating oil season looming, the United States needs a lot of oil here, now; but it may not get here for months.

ZANOYAN: So, when will that oil get here? Will it get here in time for refiners to refine and store heating oil, so that we will totally avoid any chance of heating oil shortages this winter? My answer is, no.

GERSH: But that answer may not be acceptable in an election year. If heating oil is in short supply, expect pressure to grow here to tap the strategic petroleum reserve. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


09/08/2000: Earnings Warnings Spook Wall Street

SUSIE GHARIB: Earnings warnings jolted Wall Street again today. And it looks like we're seeing more and more of these warnings, and they're coming earlier and earlier each quarter; but is that really true? Here's what Scott Gurvey found out.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Didn't we just get off this ride? Once again, the market tumbles; and fears of weak earnings get the blame. But the earnings season is more than a month away. It is the pre-season warnings that have Wall Street concerned. Among others, chemical giant, DuPont (DD); automotive supplier, TRW (TRW); semiconductor equipment maker, SpeedFam-IPEC (SFAM); and specialty retailer, CSK Auto (CAO) have all warned in the last few days. They joined Circuit City (CC) in putting investors on notice. There is a sense that companies are issuing warnings, earlier and earlier. Some analysts say the firms are trying to reduce the volatility of their shares.

PETER CARDILLO, DIR. OF RESEARCH, WESTFALIA INVESTMENTS: Companies have learned in the past that, you know, they need to be open with Wall Street and to avoid any major surprises. It's better to take the hard dose of medicine before, and let investors know that they are going to miss their quarter; and so that the impact is somewhat softer than it would normally be.

GURVEY: Higher interest rates as a result of Fed policy; a stronger dollar compared to European currencies; and higher energy prices, are all seen as acting to reduce corporate profits. First Call reports Wall Street analysts are pointing toward an earnings growth rate of 19 percent for the third quarter. That's lower than the previous two quarters, but still well-above the long-term average of 7 percent. Still, so far, Wall Street analysts have not made significant reductions to their third quarter earnings estimates, indicating they have not seen anything unexpected in the pre-announcements to-date.

CHUCH HILL, DIR. OF RESEARCH, FIRST CALL: The thing that I think, perception-wise, is influencing it is, that in the first quarter of this year, we had far less negative pre-announcements than usual; we had somewhat less negative than usual in the second quarter. But, you know, at least up until the last week or couple weeks, we seemed to be on-track with the sort of the normal number of negative pre-announcements.

GURVEY: Warnings tend to accelerate as the quarter draws to an close, and the market goes down in their wake. Then it tends to rally as the actual numbers come in. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/07/2000: Investing In The Fortune E-50 Index

SUSIE GHARIB: Chicago's futures exchanges have found a way to lure in bigger volumes of customers by using smaller contracts. The mini contracts are popular with small investors who want to gamble on futures and options but don't have the money to make big bets. Diane Eastabrook has details.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Big time investors buying and selling cattle and corn may have built Chicago's futures markets, but small time high tech investors are whisking them into the 21st century. The Fortune E50 Index is the newest contract at the Chicago mercantile exchange and the CME's latest attempt to reel in small investors hoping to fatten their portfolios with high tech stocks. The Index is comprised of Internet companies and the hardware and software firms that help build them.

SCOTT GORDON, CHAIRMAN, CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE: I envision that not only will E50 do very well, but it will further support what we already know to be the case, which is there is demand out there for these products.

EASTABROOK: Retail investors, especially those that trade online, are the fastest growing segment of the Merc's business. That is why the exchange is trying to develop more products with smaller price tags to attract them. Last month trading volume for the Merc's E-Mini NASDAQ 100 Index was nearly triple that of its larger NASDAQ contract and compared to August of last year trading volume for the E-Mini was up more than 900 percent. Across town, the Chicago Board Options Exchange is taking a cue from the Merc. In mid-August, the CBOE began trading options on a mini NASDAQ contract one tenth the size of its popular NASDAQ 100 Index. The mini NASDAQ contract became the third most actively traded contract for the month.

ERIC HENSCHEL, TRADER, CBOE: We have seen a lot more business from some smaller customers and some medium sized customers trading. And every day we see more and more.

EASTABROOK: Exchange officials say they might develop more mini index products if this current crop continues to be successful. Diane Eastabrook NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Chicago.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/08/2000: "Market Monitor"- John Murphy, President, MurphyMorris.com

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is John Murphy, one of wall Street's best known technical analysts and the President of MurphyMorris.com . And welcome back, John.

JOHN MURPHY, PRESIDENT, MURPHYMORRIS.COM: Thanks for inviting me back, Paul.

KANGAS: As you well know, the stock market has been showing unusual divergences between the blue chip and the tech laden NASDAQ sectors recently. Is this of some significance, John?

MURPHY: I think it is. Actually, I think it's a good sign. It really started back in the spring when the NASDAQ came under pressure. What we've seen is kind of a subtle rotation away from the technology stocks toward the broader market or the old economy stocks and that's where we've seen most of the improvement. In fact, the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index, for example, just set a record high and the S&P is very close to its old high. So I think we've seen money moving into the older economy stocks and in particular some of the more defensive areas of the market.

KANGAS: Well, as we know, the tech sector was really slammed this week and we're back below 4,000 on the NASDAQ Index. Are we getting near a buying point for some of these hard hit techhies?

MURPHY: Well, I think the semiconductor pullback this week has a lot to do with it. Paul, I think we're probably putting in a short-term top here, and not just in the techs, but in the market in general. Part of it is purely technical. The market has gotten very over bought and we're beginning to see a pick up in our volatility readings and also we've entered that dangerous time period of September which may also cause some nervous selling. So I suspect the market is going to be choppy probably through the rest of this month. But I do agree that any decent setbacks at this point during this month probably represent buying opportunities.

KANGAS: What would be some of your favorite stocks in the tech stocks that have been hit?

MURPHY: Well, I like IBM (IBM). In fact, that's probably my favorite stock at this particular point. Some of the others are Compaq Computer (CPQ), for example, Apple Computer (AAPL), even Oracle (ORCL). These are stocks that I think have shown good relative strength and I think on dips, I think those are some of the technical stocks I'd be looking at.

KANGAS: In other words, don't buy them yet but wait for a little further weakness and buy them when they make an obvious turnaround and maybe pay more but at least you know the direction is in your favor?

MURPHY: Absolutely.

KANGAS: All right. Now, you know, the last time you were with us, late March, the Dow was 10,921. You were selectively bullish. You liked some of the financials like State Street, Chubb (CB), Marsh McLennan (MMC). They've all done well. Are you in still or out of those?

MURPHY: Oh, very definitely. That has been our favorite sector. We go with the market. We go with where the relative strength is. The financial stocks and the utilities have been the strongest sector of the market and that's where we have made most of our money over the summer. And even today, Paul, the financial stocks just went through the roof today. The utilities set a new high. I think there is a message in there somewhere, but we do like those financial stocks.

KANGAS: How about the oils? I mean we're seeing all these 10 year highs in the futures. Are the oil stocks attractive to you?

MURPHY: Well, we have liked the oil stocks for a year, on a very short-term basis, though. We did see heavy profit taking today. There is an OPEC meeting coming up over the weekend. I think we saw a lot of profit taking not just in oil but in the oil stocks. Even on pullbacks I still tend to like those oil stocks.

KANGAS: How about some of the fallen angels in the blue chip sector, you know, like a Proctor & Gamble (PG)? Any interest there?

MURPHY: Well, some of the stocks that we've been looking at in the blue chip area, a stock like Coca Cola (KO), for example, has come down. It's testing its 200 day moving average. In the drug area, we kind of downgraded the drugs about a month ago but they're down to levels that are beginning to look a little better, American Home Products (AHP), Pfizer (PFE), stocks like that. We're beginning to do a little nibbling in the drug group.

KANGAS: OK. Fair enough. What would you absolutely avoid from the technical standpoint here?

MURPHY: Well, since we're somewhat negative on the economy at this point, we're staying away from the basic industry and the economically sensitive stocks. We've also been out of the retail sector since the spring and I know they had a good bounce this week, but we're not ready to commit to that group. So we kind of stay away from those groups that really need a strong economy to do well. Those are the groups that we tend to stay away from. The groups that we like are those interest rate sensitive areas like the ones I've already mentioned, the financials and the utilities.

KANGAS: It sounds like you would like bonds at this level?

MURPHY: Yes, we do. This is the first time bonds have outperformed stocks in 10 years. That normally happens during a period of economic slowing which we are seeing at this point. So, yes, we do like bonds.

KANGAS: Excellent. Thanks so much for being with us again, John.

MURPHY: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: My guest, John Murphy, the President of MurphyMorris.com.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/08/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened moderately lower today, as earnings warnings or brokerage downgrades involving companies like TRW (TRW) and Honeywell (HON) set a rather bearish tone at the outset of trading. At 10:30 a.m., the Industrial Average with a 45-point loss, almost matched yesterday's 50-point decline; and the NASDAQ Index gave back 80 points of Thursday's 85-point rise. Stocks continued under selling pressure throughout the rest of the morning, as investors began to doubt whether the Federal Reserve really can achieve a soft landing in the economy, and despite today's easing in oil prices, there were still growing concerns that they might remain high enough to undermine the nation's economy. At noontime, the Dow fell to a 60-point deficit; the NASDAQ Index posted a loss of nearly 82 points. Persistent selling in the tech sector, especially semiconductor stocks, pushed the NASDAQ Index lower all throughout the afternoon; but, firming bond prices seemed to help the Dow Jones Industrial Average trim its closing loss to 39.22 points, putting it at 11,220.65. In this abbreviated trading week, the Dow rose twice, fell twice, and had a net overall loss of 18.13 points. The NASDAQ Composite today was down 119.94 points at 3978.41. And for the week overall, this Index rose once, but fell three times and had a net overall loss of 255.92 points; that's 6 percent to the downside. Big board volume today trimming off about 15 million shares from yesterday's pace. Almost a 5-to-4 down volume over up volume ratio.

The Dow Transport Index down a little over 11 points.

But the Utility Index, once again, hit another record high, up 10.14.

The Closing Tick just modestly bullish at +374.

Standard & Poor's 500 off just over 8 points.

Just over a 5-point drop on the 100.

And the MidCap 400 losing nearly 4 1/2.

The Bridge Futures Price Index edged up 0.43.

New York Stock Exchange Composite gained almost 1/4 of a point.

Value Line down 2 3/4 points.

Russell2000 Small Cap off 7.12.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 down a little over 105 points.

The bond market staged a rebound from three straight days of losses, as buyers moved in on the belief that the sell-off had been overdone. The fundamental booster, of course, was that nearly $2 per barrel drop in oil futures, but all the talk about generally high energy costs causing perhaps a hard landing in the U.S. economy was also a plus, because if that happened, the Federal Reserve would certainly bring down interest rates. At the close, tax free and corporates were up an 1/8-point on average. And the Treasury market closed modestly higher as well.

2/32-gain in the 5-year note.

The 10-year note up 5/32, with the yield at 5.74 percent.

30-year bond gained 6/32, with the yield at 5.70.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index was up 3.11.

Well, it was kind of a low pressure sell-off on the blue chip sector today, the Dow losing only 39.22, the broader market lower by about a 15 to 13 margin; 147 new highs for the year; only 46 new lows.

Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the active list on a little over 15 million shares, down $0.94.

Nortel Networks (NT) dropped $5.00. That's in reaction to a "Wall Street Journal" article today suggesting the major telecom customers may cut their spending.

Citigroup rebounding $1.44 after weakness on news it's going to pay a lot of stock to buy Associates First Capital (AFS).

First Data (FDC) down $2.69. The Morgan Stanley Brokerage downgraded it from "strong buy" to just "out perform."

AT&T (T) losing $0.31, fifth in big board volume.

Texas Instruments (TXN) in the weak high tech sector down $3.38.

But Associates First Capital (AFS) up $1.19. That Citigroup stock deal worth pretty close to $40 a share.

Compaq Computer (CPQ) down $0.13.

And then Motorola (MOT) fell $1.38.

And 10th in volume was Pfizer (PFE), losing $0.25 a share.

ALLTEL (AT) up another $2.63 after gaining over $1.50 yesterday on the company's forecast of a 12 to 16 percent earnings growth rate in the next two years.

Honeywell International (HON) down $2.31. UBS Warburg Brokerage thinks the company may have difficulty in meeting third quarter Wall Street earnings estimates.

Kellogg (K) moved up $1.75.

And Quaker Oats (OAT) gained $5.06. Vague merger rumors between these two emerged today but neither company would comment.

Sun Life Financial (SLC), that's the Canadian life insurance company, down $1.25. PaineWebber downgraded it from "attractive" to "neutral."

And then TRW (TRW), as I mentioned earlier, down $1.44. The company itself lowered its third quarter earnings estimates by $0.19 to $0.24 a share.

Burlington Coat Factory (BCF) one of the big percentage gainers, up $2.13 today. The company's stock will be added to the Standard & Poor's Small Cap 600 Index after the close next Tuesday. It'll be replacing Primark (PMK) and of course today we saw index fund buying.

Quiksilver (ZQK) up another $2.88 after gaining $3.25 yesterday on higher third quarter earnings. And today the Webb Bush Morgan Brokerage repeated a "buy" recommendation with a target of $27 a share.

Kellwood Company (KWD) up $1.00. It plans to buy back up to 10 percent of its stock. The company's into manufacturing of women's apparel.

Wolverine World Wide (WWW) shoe maker down $2.94. The company sees third quarter sales growth of only single digits and earnings around $0.28 a share, the same as a year ago. Bank America Brokerage downgraded it from "buy" to "market perform."

National Discount Brokers Group (NDB) plunging nearly $8.00 a share. The company's first quarter, it says it's going to have a loss of $0.06 to $0.09 versus Street earnings estimates of $0.09 a share.

And Univision Communications (UVN) down $5.44. There's concern about TV Azteca (TZA) entering the U.S. Spanish language television market. Could be some tough competition.

NASDAQ trading down nearly 120 points today, off about 256 points or 6.6 percent for the week. Trading volume down a touch from yesterday, about 15 stocks up for every 25 down.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) hard hit today, down $17.25.

And then Cisco Systems (CSCO) dropped $2.38.

A $0.75 drop in Microsoft (MSFT).

Intel (INTC) was off $2.06.

Yahoo! (YHOO) fell $2.81, fifth in NASDAQ dollar volume.

WorldCom (WCOM) lost $0.63.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) dropping $3.19.

Commerce One (CMRC), the only gainer in