PAUL KANGAS: New York oil prices gushed higher today, hitting a 10-year intra-day high and ignoring OPEC's decision to raise output by 800,000 barrels a day. Many oil analysts and traders were looking for a bigger production hike than that, saying only an increase in the million-barrel-per-day range would begin to cool prices. But OPEC oil ministers meeting in Vienna yesterday said the 3 percent production increase would be enough to quell rising oil prices, and a decline in prices should be seen within three weeks. New York crude settled up $1.51 at $35.14 a barrel today, and some traders think oil prices will continue to soar.

BRIAN HAND, INDEPENDENT OIL TRADER: I think we're going over $40. If everything stays the same, I think we'll go right over $40 a barrel. You have to figure, I came down here over 20 years ago and the price of crude oil was $31 then; I don't see any reason why we can't go over 40, 20 years later. Adjusted for inflation, crude oil is cheap.

KANGAS: Meanwhile, OPEC's president says a possible world production crisis is on the horizon as many OPEC members are close to their maximum output levels, now.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


09/11/2000: Oil Prices & Interest Rates Slow The Economy

SUSIE GHARIB: Skyrocketing oil prices have been slowing down the American economy, but that's only one factor. Higher interest rates and disappointing stock prices have also cooled things down. Suzanne Pratt takes a look at the pieces of this complicated economic puzzle.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Ask anyone on Wall Street, why the economy has been slowing? They will point to higher interest rates. Since June of last year, the Federal Reserve has raised rates by 1.75 percent. In that same time, the nation's gross domestic product slipped from a hefty annual rate of more than 8 percent, to its recent level of about 5 percent. What's more, some economists are now forecasting growth has slowed even further in the current quarter to the healthier rate of about 3 percent. While the Fed may deserve much of the credit for reigning in the economy, experts say there are other factors at work. At the top of the list: the erosion of the "wealth effect," that was created by the bull market.

STEPHEN SLIFER, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: The stock market has obviously flattened out, sort of, I guess over the last several months. It's really dropped sharply, and it's been kind of bouncing. Kind of looks like we're going to have a year where equity prices might be up 10 or 15 percent, as opposed to 30-plus, and I think that is having an effect on the consumer and his willingness to spend.

PRATT: Some economists estimate lackluster stock prices; if they continue, could trim GDP by as much as a full percentage point. And while it's difficult to quantify, most agree the full impact has still not been felt. Escalating energy costs are also helping to slow growth. Economists say higher prices at the gasoline pump, and for heating oil, are acting as a tax on consumers and businesses.

JOSHUA FEINMAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE ASSET MGMT.: The first thing that happens is, you see that your purchasing power - as a household or as a business, as a consumer of oil - has been eroded, and therefore, it reduces your ability to buy other things.

PRATT: Feinman says if oil prices remain around $30 a barrel this year, they could shave as much as a 0.5 a percentage point off of growth over the balance of 2000, and into next year. But others downplay the effect of rising oil prices. They argue the U.S. economy is far less oil-dependent today than it was in the 1970's.

MARILYN SCHAJA, SR. ECONOMIST, DONALDSON, LUFKIN & JENRETTE: It's not as big a danger as it had been years ago, and you know I suspect that on the margin, it's causing some slowdown, but not yet to a major degree.

PRATT: The same could be said for the stronger dollar, which started to firm up, especially against the euro in the last few months. A stronger dollar could act to restrain net exports. But most economists agree the dollar hasn't been strong enough, long enough, in the right regions of the world, to do any real damage.

SLIFER: Trade, as a percent of our economy, is 15 percent. All of our trade is 15 percent of GDP. Trade with Europe is about 15 or 20 percent, of the 15 percent. It's small.

PRATT: A flat stock market, higher oil prices, and a stronger dollar, can all act as helping hands to the Fed. But experts say, because they're so unpredictable, they can't be counted on to do the Fed's work for it. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/11/2000: The FTC Takes Aim At The Entertainment Industry's Violent Ways

PAUL KANGAS: The entertainment industry is under the gun tonight. The Federal Trade Commission says movie, music and game makers routinely target children under 17 with violent material. And as Stephanie Woods reports, investigators found documents that show the industry knows exactly what it's doing.

STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The scenes are bloody and violent and the Federal Trade Commission says movie and game makers are aggressively and pervasively marketing these types of products to children as young as 10. The Clinton administration today put the entertainment industry on notice to stop the practice.

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Something has to be done. You can't make a mockery of a system that you say has integrity. They say these rating systems mean something. They can't turn around and advertise to people that shouldn't see this stuff.

WOODS: Citing industry documents, federal investigators say entertainment companies are knowingly violating their own ratings systems when they sell their products and the FTC study shows 80 percent of R rated movies are marketed to the under 17 crowd. And 70 percent of electronic games with a mature rating are aimed at kids. The Interactive Digital Software Association, which represents game makers, says it's committed to ensuring members comply with the rating system but the Motion Picture Association would not comment and it abruptly canceled an afternoon news conference. Movie studio executives are also steering clear of Washington. They are refusing to testify at a Senate hearing to be held by John McCain later this week.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, CHAIRMAN, COMMERCE COMMITTEE: Obviously the FTC report is a very serious indictment of what they've been doing. But if they don't wish to come, that's something that they will decide. I harbor no ill will.

WOODS: Analysts say the political jawboning is unlikely to hurt the bottom line of the entertainment industry, but some analysts worry it may not stop here.

JILL KRUTICK, MEDIA ANALYST, SALOMON SMITH BARNEY: But if there are certain restrictions on how movies can be advertised and where they can be advertised, you know, what time they can be advertised on television, I mean that could have some implications for the movie companies, but by and large a hit movie is a hit movie.

WOODS: The politicians seem to think they've got a hit with the issue of Hollywood violence aimed at kids. Even both presidential candidates agree the entertainment industry needs to clean up its act. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/11/2000: Commodities Outlook & Analysis

PAUL KANGAS: Even if oil prices should top out and move lower as OPEC production increases, one expert who believes other major commodity prices may soon be headed higher is Kevin Pendley, Bureau Chief for BridgeNews in Chicago. Welcome, Kevin.

KEVIN PENDLEY, CHICAGO BUREAU CHIEF, BRIDGENEWS: Good evening, Paul.

KANGAS: Which other commodities do you feel are due to rise in price and why?

PENDLEY: Well, I think the big market to watch in the next few weeks is the grains market. I think if the energy market is ready to pass the baton on as far as leadership, I think grains are the ones to watch. Grains make up about 17 percent of the CRB and as such, if they start to roll, then they could really carry the CRB on to the next level.

KANGAS: So you think that will be the next big gainer. How about some secondary movers?

PENDLEY: Well, I've been watching the copper market with interest. If you've watched it a little bit, Paul, you notice it's at multi-year highs and if the Industrial portion of the commodity business starts to pick up steam, a lot of times that's a precursor to some of the more finished issued goods taking off.

KANGAS: Well, palladium and platinum have been strong, have they not?

PENDLEY: Absolutely. Those have been two of the strong markets within the metals contingent. Interestingly, the precious metals segment really hasn't done much but most of the fault there lies with the strong dollar.

KANGAS: So a weakening dollar would be good for the precious metals?

PENDLEY: Absolutely. You know, in a way would it obviously help all commodity markets because it would increase purchasing power for foreign nations. But it's been a particular drag on silver and gold.

KANGAS: Right. Well, now, getting back to the grain commodity and the possible increase in price, that would be great for the farmers for a change.

PENDLEY: Well, they're coming off some really tough years. I think if you remember right last year we saw commodity prices at 24 year lows. So the levels we're coming from in the commodities markets is an extreme. You'll see that the CRB quietly is at two and a half year highs this week but it's not the kind of move that makes people sit back and say oh, inflation is at our doorstep.

KANGAS: But would strong grain prices necessarily be bearish for the stock market?

PENDLEY: I don't think so. I think that we're at a point in history where you could see a lag before you'd start to say oh my gosh, the bond market has to go lower, yields have to go higher. So I think it's going to take time to make that crossover.

KANGAS: So not necessarily bearish?

PENDLEY: Not in the short term.

KANGAS: All right, Kevin, thanks very much for being with us.

PENDLEY: Thanks, Paul.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/11/2000: Silicon Wadi-Part 1: High Tech Israel

SUSIE GHARIB: When it comes to high tech, most people think of Silicon Valley in California. But high tech activity is spreading worldwide and right now one hotbed of development is Israeli. In fact, Israeli leads the world in high tech start ups per capita. Young Israelis take skills they learned in the military into the private sector and that's why Israeli is being called the Silicon Wadi after the Arabic word for a stream that flows in the desert. Tonight, in the first of a three part series, Jack Kahn looks at the impact of Israel's high tech boom.

JACK KAHN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Israel has always been a contrast between the old and the new and now the past is meeting the future here in the town of Rosh Haayin, where many of Israel's high tech companies are setting up shop. Here, as all over the country, new office buildings are going up daily to meet the demands of a booming high tech industry involved in almost everything from wireless communications to biotech. But even as the needed square footage is being built, Israel's Silicon Wadi may soon be facing a more difficult shortage, this time involving a lack of qualified workers. Already, Israeli newspapers are full of help wanted ads for engineers and other technical positions. And besides the competition between local companies, American high tech firms are also on the prowl, recruiting for their U.S. operations, where they already employ 7,500 Israeli high tech workers. It's a situation that has some in the industry worried.

LEOR MALAYAN, VICE PRESIDENT, COMPUGEN: Mathematicians, those unique people that understand both biology and mathematics and computer science and other exact science disciplines are very rare across the world, in Israel as well.

KAHN: But while some fear a brain drain in the making, others see some positives for the local industry if Israeli high tech workers find jobs abroad.

KOBY HUBERMAN, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, NICE SYSTEMS: I think that the fact that people are going abroad and learn and get some significant exposures to other cultures, other business environments, is a real advantage. Now if they come back and they are looking for exciting jobs and exciting quality of life, which I believe will be the case going forward as well, then the experience that they bring from abroad is tremendously valuable for the companies here.

KAHN: Many of Israel's other businesses have begun to import workers from Southeast Asia, so it's possible that the next wave of high tech workers here could come from places like India. Jack Kahn, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Rosh Haayin, Israel.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


09/11/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened modestly lower today with over a 3-point loss in IBM (IBM) acting as a drag on the Dow Industrial Average. Big Blue's weakness was in reaction to a cut in third- and fourth-quarter earnings estimates by Goldman Sachs. That helped push the tech-laden NASDAQ Index down nearly 60 points by 10:00 a.m., although the Dow, after being down 25 points at the outset, trimmed its deficit to only 8 points by 30 minutes into the trading session, thanks to a 5-point jump in J.P. Morgan (JPM) stock on renewed takeover speculation. A "buy" recommendation on Wal*Mart (WMT) gave the Dow an additional boost as morning trading continued, while the financial sector firmed up on news that Goldman Sachs was buying out the big specialist firm, Spear Leeds, about which we'll have details in a moment. At noontime, the Industrial Average posted a 59-point gain; while the NASDAQ Index was down about one point. Another spike up in oil futures, despite the OPEC production boost, coupled with renewed worries about third-quarter earnings, set off persistent selling for the rest of the session, and the Dow Industrial Average ended with a loss of 25.16 at 11,195.49. In today's 147-point trading range, the Dow closed down about 91 points from the best level of the session; up 56 1/2 points from the low of the day. The NASDAQ Composite fell 82.06 points, ending at 3896.35. In its 128-point trading range, the NASDAQ Composite settled 112 points below its best level of the day; up only 15 points from the worst level of the session. Big board volume trimmed down considerably - almost 60 million shares fewer than Friday. About a 4-to-3 ratio of up volume over down volume.

The Dow Transport Index down just over 41 1/2 points.

But look at this Utility Index, up another 9 1/3 points at a new record high. Duke Energy (DUK) was the big gainer, and that stock has gone from 45 to about 83 just this year.

The Closing Tick just modestly bullish at +141.

Standard & Poor's 500 up - or down 6 2/3.

A little over 4 3/4-point drop in the 100.

But the MidCap 400 managed to gain 0.87.

And the Bridge Futures Price Index up 1.15.

New York Stock Exchange Composite gained just over a point and a half.

Just a fractional rise in the Value Line.

Russell2000 Small Cap Index down a little over 2 points.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 off 54 1/3 points.

The bond market failed to rally today after Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president, Robert McTeer said the United States' economy is likely to slow, and that it is possible that oil prices have reached their peak. The problem appeared to be a still-heavy schedule of corporate debt offerings, and caution ahead of reports on August wholesale and consumer prices due out later in the week. Of course, that late spike-up in oil futures also helped push tax-free and corporate issues to 1/8- and 1/4-point closing losses, which is about what the Treasury market did, too.

5-year notes losing 4/32.

Bellwether 10-year note down 8/32, with the yield up to 5.77 percent.

30-year bond dropped 12/32.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index off just a little bit over 4 3/4 points.

The Dow did not have a great day, especially in the afternoon. It ended with a loss of 25 points. But the broader market stayed higher by a 15 to 13 margin, interestingly, and 208 new yearly highs against only 42 new lows. Topping the active list, Nortel Networks (NT) on 21.3 million shares, down $4.00. The Canadian Stock Exchange Index was down 1 1/4 President Clinton today and of course the telecom group was weak overall.

Lucent Technologies (LU) off $1.88.

Micron Technology (MU), weak chip sector, down $3.56.

General Electric (GE) dropped $0.25.

But Nokia (NOK) bucked the overall trend with a small gain of $0.13.

Compaq Computer (CPQ) losing $0.69.

Pfizer (PFE) up $0.31.

AT&T (T) gained $0.38.

And then Citigroup rising $0.63, 10th in big board volume.

Texas Instruments (TXN) down $0.56.

Chevron (CHV) up $2.63. First of all, a rumor was making the rounds the company may be in merger talks with Phillips Petroleum (P). And on top of that, the ABN Amro Brokerage had positive comments about Chevron.

Goldman Sachs (GS) up $7.31, very positive reaction to the company's $6.5 billion stock buyout of Spear Lees that you just heard about.

IBM (IBM) down $4.75 after Goldman Sachs cut those third and fourth quarter earnings estimates. The stock traded as low as $123.94.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) up $5.00 even on those persistent takeover rumors. Some say that Deutsche Bank is interested.

Sears (S) up $0.50 a share. The company has elected Allen Lacy as its new president and CEO, succeeding Arthur Martinez.

And then Wal-Mart (WMT) up $2.25 after Bank America issued a "buy" recommendation and has a $62.00 a share target.

Mikasa (MKS) doing very well today, up $6.31. It's a designer and marketer of dinnerware and crystal stemware. This company is going to be acquired by J.G. Durand Industries for $16.50 even.

JLK Direct Distribution (JLK) having a good day, up $2.38. It's in the tool supply business and Canametal will acquire it, will acquire all the shares of JLK it doesn't already own for $8.75 each.

Brown and Brown (BRO) up $3.19. This is the country's number ninth largest insurance broker and it's up on news it's going to buy Rideman Corporation, the 26th largest U.S. insurance broker. But the terms were not disclosed today.

Centex (CTX), the home builder, up $2.00 a share. The company is increasing its own fiscal year 2001 earnings estimate by $0.25 to $0.50 a share above its old projection of $3.75 a share.

LaBranche & Company (LAB) down $4.06. That stock has been sharply higher after recent takeover speculation but Friday Salomon Smith Barney also downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral." Could be some carryover selling.

And Millennium Chemicals (MCH) down $1.16. Salomon Smith Barney downgraded this from "outperform" to just "neutral."

NASDAQ trading, a loss of just over 82 points in the Index, over two percent. Trading volume down a touch from Friday, 15 stocks higher for every 24 lower.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) down $2.69. They did hit the high techs.

Juniper (JNPR) off $14.56.

CIENA (CIEN) dropping $15.63.

Sun Micro (SUNW) down $5.50.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) lost $4.56.

Intel (INTC) down $0.69.

Oracle (ORCL) dropped $3.13.

Microsoft (MSFT) off only $0.50.

Commerce One (CMRC) bucked the trend, up $3.75. Prudential