SUSIE GHARIB: Triple trouble tonight: the Dow falls 160 points; the euro hits a new all-time low against the dollar; and oil prices hit a new 10-year high. Oil is still the biggest inflation "wild card." And today, oil prices went wild, gushing $1.85 to a fresh high of 35.92 a barrel. That high comes just days after OPEC said it would raise production by 800,000 barrels a day, a move seen as too little/too late, by most oil traders. The spike in oil prices also has President Clinton concerned.

WILLIAM J. CLINTON, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We just have to watch this. The OPEC announcement, and the actions that have been taken since then, are not enough, I think, for the market to fully sort out what it's going to do. But I assure you, I'm spending a lot of time on it, and I will do everything I can to minimize the impact of - and the adverse impact, on the American people.

GHARIB: Meanwhile, there was a positive impact on the American people last month when it came to gasoline prices.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


09/15/2000: Gas Prices Bring The CPI Down

SUSIE GHARIB: The consumer price index fell in August, the first time that's happened in 14 years. The CPI fell 0.1 percent, mainly because of a temporary, unexpected drop in gasoline prices. Core inflation edged up 0.2 percent, but analysts expect the headline inflation number to tick higher next month as a result of higher oil prices. Still, they see no cause for alarm.

JOHN RYDING, SR. ECONOMIST, BEAR STEARNS: When we get the September data, I think we'll see the 0.1 percent decline be reversed, and we'll see probably something like a 0.4 percent increase in the CPI for September. And so the two figures taken together will look much more like a trend reading.

GHARIB: Longer term, Ryding and the analysts at Bear Stearns expect oil prices to fall.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/15/2000: The Euro Drops To A New Low

PAUL KANGAS: For now, sky-high oil prices are a factor in the continuing weakness in the euro. Today, it closed at .8540, a fresh low for the currency. In its 20-month lifetime, the euro's value has shrunk by more than 25 percent. From Paris, Paul Miller looks at the reasons for the currency's slide, and its prospects for recovery. PAUL MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: French taxi drivers, truckers and farmers demonstrated against high fuel prices, made even higher by a declining euro, since oil products are priced in dollars. Suddenly, the euro's weakness against the dollar is serious business. For months, Europeans who saw their exports booming didn't mind the weak euro; but now, there are worries about inflation.

NIELS CHRISTENSEN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SOCIETE GENERAL: Yeah. In - in a situation where oil prices are surging higher, the euro is weak; so we are bound to have very strong imported inflation in the zone.

MILLER: Keeping inflation down is the primary goal of the European Central Bank. It could raise interest rates and risk slowing the economy. It could also try to intervene in the currency markets, to boost the euro and relieve inflationary pressures.

CHRISTENSEN: The market is saying, well, next step must be intervention. And then the market wants to see some action from the central banks.

MILLER: Europe's politicians have begun talking about the need for a stronger euro. But there are no demands for ECB intervention, which is considered risky.

HERVE GOULLETQUER, ECONOMIST, CREDIT LYONNAIS: Because it will be the first intervention made by the ECB, it has to be a success. And so today it is not so sure. So it explains why the ECB is so cautious.

MILLER: And there is a growing sense here that strengthening the euro is difficult as long as the American economy is outperforming Europe and attracting investment. Europe's economy is considered to have structural weaknesses, including its workforce and the unwillingness of governments to cut taxes that pay for extensive social programs. The structural weaknesses of the Eurozone are partly political. There is one currency, but 11 countries, and little common identity. The euro was supposed to foster a common identity. Analysts say it could have the opposite effect if it drops sharply.

GOULLETQUER: If we have a sort of collapse because the euro is very big economic crisis; yes, it will have some pessimistic implications for the unification of Europe.

MILLER: A crash is considered unlikely. Intervention by the ECB is uncertain. Analysts say the more likely scenario is a currency that settles at a relatively low level against the dollar.

CHRISTENSEN: It's positive for the economy with the increase in the competitiveness. So, I would say longer term, as long as the inflation rate can be kept down, it would be positive for the European economy.

MILLER: For now, Europe is focused on the rising price of oil and other goods, and not the value of what is proving to be a quite common currency. Paul Miller, for NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Paris.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/15/2000: Is Windows ME Right For You?

SUSIE GHARIB: Our next story is about me. I'm speaking here about Windows M.E. This is Microsoft's (MSFT) latest computer operating system and you can expect to find it on any new personal computer that you'll buy in the months ahead. Scott Gurvey reports.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: At road shows around the world, Microsoft has been showing off Windows M.E., short for Millennium Edition. This is Microsoft's consumer operating system, the successor to Windows 98. It includes several new features in the multimedia category including a video editor and a hi-fi player for music. It also has features designed to make home networking simpler and make the entire system more reliable.

TOM LAEMMEL, PRODUCT MANAGER, MICROSOFT: My mother is crazy about the P.C. health features that just make using the P.C. easier and more stable. I kind of like the digital media things, playing with music, playing with video and playing with pictures on your P.C.

GURVEY: Windows M.E. is already showing up on computers being sold for home and home office use. But analysts say there is little in this release to encourage a Windows 98 user to spend the $50 required to upgrade an existing system.

ART RUSSELL, TECHNOLOGY ANALYST, EDWARD JONES: I don't think its going to have a material impact on Microsoft's financial condition. Certainly, it brings some new functionality that new P.C. buyers are going to appreciate some of the new functionality in this product, but it's going to have a very minimal impact on their bottom line.

GURVEY: Some of the new features in Windows M.E. can replace commercial products on the market from third party suppliers. Microsoft argues that it is simply giving consumers more for their money. But some critics charge that this is bundling, similar to Microsoft's strategy that got it sued by the Justice Department on anti-trust charges.

BRIAN LIVINGSTON, AUTHOR, "WINDOWS ME SECRETS": I think that Microsoft is trying to do something in Windows M.E. very similar to what they were just found guilty of in Windows 98, which is giving away products free in Windows that hurt competition from other companies.

GURVEY: This is expected to be the last Microsoft operating system that can trace its lineage all the way back to the original DOS, released in 1982. The next Microsoft consumer system, code named Whistler, is about to enter the beta test process. It is based on the new business system, Windows 2000. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


09/15/2000: Market Monitor- James Dines, Editor, "The Dines Letter"

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is James Dines, Editor and Publisher of the widely followed "Dines Letter." Welcome back, Jim.

JAMES DINES, EDITOR, "THE DINES LETTER": Oh, good to talk to you again, Paul.

KANGAS: You were one of the first market gurus to recommend buying Internet stocks and on your last visit with us last November, you equated the Net to the creation of libraries after the Dark Ages. You also warned the stocks would have short term setbacks and we sure got a beauty this past spring. Did the severity of the sell-off in Internet stocks make you less bullish on that group?

DINES: The truth is that last November I said there would be a tremendous rise in the market spearheaded by the Internets to a top in the spring. That top has happened and I think that we are now in a very bearish situation with the high technology sector and I don't like the semiconductor stocks especially. But what's happened, and this is, that was a pretty daring prediction that came true, but what's happening now is something even more subtle. I think you're getting a shift in leadership in the market. One of the theories in my book, mass psychology, was the Dines Sector Analysis Theory, which says that markets move in groups of groups. I think we are now entering an energy market. And this, for example, the strength in the utility sector, the oil and gas, of course, but also the fuel cell group and the batteries, platinum and palladium and catalytic converters and also even in some petroleum and we've just added the uranium stocks. So this is a whole sector movement and I think you're getting a shift of leadership here.

KANGAS: All right, so the Internet is no longer your favorite, quite clearly.

DINES: Not for the moment, but the Internet, of course, will grow enormously. I was in very early, as you know. We took huge profits out of it.

KANGAS: Not as good as they could have been because the stock orders, of course, threw you out of there, but well below the highs. But you still got mostly out with profits.

DINES: Well, getting several hundred percent is good enough for me. It could have been more, but, you know, I'm glad we-you know, out of the 11 stocks that I mentioned last time on your show, nine came out in profit. Some of them were hundreds of percent so-

KANGAS: Yeah? You had some good ones. You had a couple of real clinkers in there like Medaconsult . That didn't do too well and I don't think you were stomped out of that.

DINES: No.

KANGAS: But you had some great ones that you came out beautifully, CMGI (CMGI) --

DINES: Exactly.

KANGAS: -- and Safeguard Scientific (SFE) --

DINES: Right.

KANGAS: -- stopped out with big profits.

DINES: Right. Right.

KANGAS: What kind of leadership in this new group of energy stocks, what are your favorites?

DINES: Right now in the oil I would like, I would recommend Exxon (XOM) and Enron (ENE) and Phillips (P) are my favorites right now in that group. But I would, we're now readying a whole study in the "Dines Letter" on this whole energy sector. If my theory is right, you see, Paul, my original bisignal at 796 on the Dow back on 15 June '82, has triggered what I've been calling the mother of all bull markets.

KANGAS: Right.

DINES: And I don't see it ending as of today any way, and as such we have had a number of these sector shifts. If we are now in an energy market, then that explains why the utilities stock average has gone through the roof.

KANGAS: Right.

DINES: But there will come a time for the father of all bear markets, every issue, I have a trigger point below which I would not tolerate a decline where you get stomped out of the market, and, again, I've said this last time I was on your show, every time I've been on, I'm very concerned about a currency crisis. We've been bearish on the Euro since it was $1.17. It's crashing to new lows here and the morons running the central banks don't understand that when they dump the gold backing their currency, that's why the currency is down.

KANGAS: Well, the market overall, give us your medical checkup on that. Is it healthy or not?

DINES: It's healthy. I'm bullish on the market. I think this is a good time to make money. You've got to get in early.

KANGAS: OK, in what, though? We only have a minute left. In what?

DINES: OK. The stocks I'd buy, of course I'd recommend Stillwater (SWC) again. There are only five-

KANGAS: Palladium.

DINES: Palladium and North American Palladium (PDL) also. Second, I'd recommend Geron Corp. (GERN). Since 1985 we have been predicting the discovery of the genetic secret of physical immortality by 2005. Third, I'd recommend Andrx (ADRX), another biotech. They're a generic prilosec , which is the world's largest selling drug. It comes off Aster Zeneca's patent next year. Redif.com because I'm very bullish on India. And finally "The Dines Letter's" four horsemen of the Internet, those are the four Internet stocks we are holding no matter what, one of them I'll share that one with you, is CMGI.

KANGAS: OK.

DINES: If you want more on that get that from my Website, dinesletter.com. But these are the stocks that I would recommend.

KANGAS: We have time for a one word answer. Buy bonds now, yes or no?

DINES: We've been bullish on bonds since July. It's in an up trend and until we give a sell signal, we are looking for higher bonds.

KANGAS: OK. So I guess the answer is yes.

DINES: Yes.

KANGAS: Thanks very much, Jim.

DINES: My pleasure.

KANGAS: My guest James Dines, Editor and Publisher of "The Dines Letter."

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/15/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street showed little positive reaction to the oil-induced decline in the consumer price index early today because energy costs are now much higher than they were last month; and what's more, investors are now focusing on an increasing number of earnings' shortfalls due to the slowing economy. As a result, the Dow Industrial Average, after rising only about 20 points at the outset of trading, fell to a 22-point loss by 10:30 this morning, and the NASDAQ Index posted a 72-point deficit as the tech sector was undermined by a drop in Oracle's (ORCL) stock, whose good earnings late yesterday were overshadowed by disappointing sales of application software. The market showed little overall change from its early level during the rest of the morning, but took a turn for the worse in early afternoon, when at 2:00 p.m. the Dow posted a 65-point loss and NASDAQ Index down almost 84 points. Higher oil futures and selling linked to the September quarterly expiration of futures and stock and index options hit the blue chips hard in late trading, and the Dow Industrial Average tumbled to a closing loss of 160.47 points, or 1 1/2 percent, putting it at 10,927 even. The Dow only rose once this week and had a net overall loss of 293.65 points; that's 2.6 percent. The NASDAQ Composite fell 78.63 today to end at 3835.23. But for the week, the Index rose twice, fell three times, had a net overall loss of 143.18 points; that's 3.6 percent on the down side.

Big board volume heavy, probably partly due to the triple-witching 1.234 billion shares. And about a 7-to-4 ratio of down volume over up volume.

The Dow Transport Index off just over 34 points.

But, look at this, the Utility Index again at a record high, with a gain of nearly 6 points.

And the Closing Tick +1. I guess we'll call that, neutral.

Standard & Poor's 500 down just over 15.

9 1/2-point drop on the 100.

The MidCap 400 off nearly 4 1/4 points.

The Bridge Futures Price Index down exactly 1/2 point.

New York Stock Exchange Composite off exactly 5 points.

A loss of 3.88 in the Value Line.

Russell2000 Small Cap off 8 1/3.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 down nearly 160 3/4 points.

After yesterday's steep losses in longer-term debt instruments changed the bond market's inverted yield curve back to the norm, where short-term yields are smaller than longer term. That trend steepened today as August's benign inflation data triggered buying, which sent short-term rates to nine-month lows, while higher oil prices raised longer-term inflation fears, and selling in long bonds boosted their yields to two-month highs.

At the close then, tax free and corporates were down 3/8 to 1/2 point on average. And the Treasury market ended on a mixed note.

A little gain of 2/32 in the 5-year note. Short-term stuff.

But a 12/32 loss in the 10-year note.

And the 30-year bond down another 1 5/32 with the yield all the way up to 5.90 percent.

The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index fell just over 12 points.

A lot of negative factors hurting the blue chips today, including the triple witching and higher oil prices. But there were just a lot of sellers around today and the Dow Industrial Average ended with a loss of a little over 160 points. And we see a rough time, perhaps, Monday with follow-through selling. I don't-there we go. Now we have some graphics. That'll help. As you can see, the broader market is- for every 17 down there were only about 11 up and 149 new highs, 74 new lows for the year.

Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the active list on 23.6 million shares, down $0.13.

But Xerox (XRX) up $1.81 and it traded as high as $18.38. Now, Jean Marshall's Inside Wall Street column in the new "Business Week" magazine reports that Hewlett-Packard (HWP) or Canon (CAJ) or maybe some other parties might be interested in making a buyout bid for Xerox and some say that it could fetch anywhere from $30 to $35 a share.

GE (GE) down $2.00 a share today.

Nortel Networks (NT) edging up $0.94.

No change in AT&T (T), fifth in volume.

Chase Manhattan (CMB) lost $1.19.

Micron Technology (MU) off $3.56 in a weak high tech group.

Citigroup lost $0.81.

Pfizer (PFE) down $0.06.

But ExxonMobil (XOM) up $3.75 and most of these oil stocks did well because of the high price today.

Allstate (ALL) was up $1.50 after a J.P. Morgan Brokerage upgraded it from "market perform" to "buy."

Delta Air (DAL) down $1.44, weak airline group because of the spike up in oil prices, obviously.

Kerr-McGee (KMG) up $1.69. The company's China Petroleum unit has been awarded an exploration block in China's Bohai Bay .

Cadence Design (CDN) rose $1.50. Goldman Sachs added this stock to its "recommended" list.

And Hewlett-Packard (HWP) down $3.06.

And J.P. Morgan (JPM) losing $6.06, two of the biggest losers in the Dow, and that cost the Dow 54 points, those two losses there alone.

Key3Media Group (KME) up $1.38. The S.G. Cowan Brokerage began covering the stock with a "strong buy" today.

McDermott International (MDR) up $1.19. The company's an offshore oil and gas services firm. I guess we can figure out why that was strong.

Unova (UNA) was down $2.44. The company is in industrial automation services and the company said its second half revenues will be below the break even point.

Metals USA (MUI) down $1.19. This company sees a third quarter profit but only about a nickel or less and the Street was looking for $0.26 a share.

Pentair (PNR) down $7.69. The company expects lower than expected third quarter earnings in the $0.25 to $0.30 range. The Street was expecting $0.50 a share. The company blames unsatisfactory performance of its tool and equipment operation. Standard & Poor's and Piper Jaffrey both downgraded the stock.

Auto parts maker ArvinMeritor (ARM) down $2.38. The company sees fourth quarter earnings $0.40 to $0.45. The Street was estimating $0.60.

NASDAQ trading, a loss of 78.63 and volume up a touch from yesterday's pace, 14 stocks higher for 24 lower.

Oracle (ORCL) topped the active list, down $6.63. Wall Street not happy with the company's applications software sales.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) gained $1.50, bucking the trend.

But a $2.11 drop in Intel (INTC).

Microsoft (MSFT) down $1.63.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) fell $3.31, fifth in volume.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) down $4.44.

QUALCOMM (QCOM) gained $3.63.

CIENA (CIEN) managed a $6.19 advance.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) up $2.81.

But Dell Computer (DELL) fell $0.88, 10th in dollar volume on NASDAQ.

Electric Fuel (EFCX) had a good day, up $2.19. The company won a f