SUSIE GHARIB, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone. Another warning from a high-tech titan: Dell Computer told analysts at a big meeting in Texas today that its fourth-quarter per-share earnings could be one to two cents below estimates; but, it's still on target with the third quarter. Warnings like this, and earlier from Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL) and Priceline (PCLN) have slammed the NASDAQ. Is the worst over? Scott Gurvey takes a look.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The tech-heavy NASDAQ turned positive today, but the 2 percent rally fell far short of erasing the damage of the last few days. Some of the tech sector's biggest stars have been clobbered, as earnings warnings poured in. Computer hardware stocks have fallen amid concerns about the personal computer market. Computer software stocks have followed suit, as several companies warned of slower revenue growth than Wall Street had expected. Semiconductor stocks posted mixed results. Companies primarily making microprocessors have done poorly, while those producing specialized components used in communications and data transmission have done well. Analysts think the worst of the sell-off may be over.

BRIAN FINNERTY, NASDAQ TRADER, C.E. UNTERBERG, TOWBIN: I would think Friday would be - that's probably going to be the last day that you're going to see any more pre-announcements, or "confessions" as we call them; and I think that you're very close to the end of this bad news. The market right now, the NASDAQ market, it's trying to make a bottom in here.

GURVEY: Investors have been hoping that, for some time. Some individual portfolios have taken a real beating, and some Wall Streeters say, the fear typical of a market bottom is beginning to surface. The NASDAQ Composite is now down 13 percent for the year, and 30 percent below its all-time high, set back in March.

DAVE POWERS, SR. TECHNOLOGY ANALYST, EDWARD JONES: I think in order for technology to turn higher, two things need to happen. One, the companies that report third-quarter earnings in the next couple of weeks, have got to come out with good news - not only about the third quarter; but also about the fourth quarter. And secondly, it would help that if we could get some you know better factors driving the macro economic environment. If we could get oil prices easing and the Euro to strengthen, that would certainly help things as well.

GURVEY: That may be difficult to achieve, especially if we get more announcements like Dell Computer's talking down expectations for the fourth quarter. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


10/04/2000: What's Ahead for The Markets?

SUSIE GHARIB: Paul, our guest tonight says that the stock market will continue to struggle in the months ahead. Joining me live now is Mike Holland, chairman of Holland & Company, his investment firm, here in New York City. Great to see you again.

MICHAEL HOLLAND, CHAIRMAN, HOLLAND & COMPANY: It's really good to be here; thank you.

GHARIB: What's going on with the market? We had this warning from Dell. We've heard from Apple, Intel. I mean, how much more of this are we going to have to get?

HOLLAND: I think we probably have some more going through the end of the year. What Dell said tonight after the close, Susie, was very important because Dell has been such an upbeat positive part of this market; ever since really the meltdown in 1998. What they indicated tonight was they have slow revenues. Europe is slow for them. OfficeMax (OMX) earlier in the day - a much smaller company, but yet another barometer of what's going on in revenues in retail sales, slowing. The Federal Reserve's six interest rate increases have had an effect, combined with the energy price increase - consumers are spending less in Europe than the U.S. and in Asia.

GHARIB: All right, so what's the message here? I mean, how are investors supposed to interpret all of this? Is this good or bad?

HOLLAND: Well, it's good. I'll be Pollyanna here for a second and say that the Federal Reserve is out of the picture in terms of raising rates. I think their next move will be to decrease rates, and I hope it happens sooner rather than later. I think that we'll continue to have growth around the world, but it'll be at a more subdued pace. So the market is repricing assets a little bit, as a result of that. I think that most of the damage, for a lot of great companies, has already been done.

GHARIB: All right. So, when are we going to see a rally in the markets?

HOLLAND: I think between now and the end of the year, companies like - and I'm going to pick out three: Hewlett-Packard (HWP), Intel and Microsoft (MSFT). Three great companies that have been really bashed by this market. In the case of Microsoft, down by more than one-half. I think stocks like that, between now and year-end, trading at very reasonable multiples, will be substantially higher. But I think that a number of companies in this slowing growth environment will continue to be punished by the market.

GHARIB: Will continue to -

HOLLAND: To be punished, if they bring surprises. We'd look at stocks like AT&T and Lucent (LU) which have dramatically disappointed. They are companies that they're going to have to prove to the market that they can do better in the future.

GHARIB: All right. So what is an investor to do? Let's say you're a long-term investor.

HOLLAND: Right.

GHARIB: You have some money. Should you put it to work in the market and buy some of these stocks that have been beaten down? Or should you wait?

HOLLAND: I would absolutely begin buying. Those three companies I mentioned, for example, three world-class franchises. You can buy companies, like that, that have been trading at very reasonable multiples. Intel, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, IBM (IBM). You can then buy, in addition to that, I think Treasury bonds are very interesting.

GHARIB: Short term?

HOLLAND: Short and intermediate, and even zero-coupon. You can - the government guarantees us four times our money on zero - for your children, when they're going to go to college - four times your money. You put in a dollar, they are going to guarantee you four in 20 years - or, 25 years. So you can get over 6 percent in the shorter term. You can get four times your money in the longer term.

GHARIB: OK. We're running out of a little time here. All right. Investors: looking at their stock portfolios; the elections coming up. When they go into the voting booth, how are they going to vote, do you think? What is the impact of all of the stock market sideways' movement going to have on the election?

HOLLAND: People generally avoid that question, and I'm not going to avoid it. If the NASDAQ is down dramatically, between now and November, I think it's not good for the incumbent. I think that if the market stays flat here, I think it would be a little bit of a non-event. If the market's up, it's good for the incumbent. I think it's very straightforward. The market is going to matter this time, more than it ever has before, because more than half the people who vote, own stocks. And that's the first time in U.S. history.

GHARIB: All right. You talked about interest rates, real quickly. You said that it would be nice to see an interest rate cut. We got no indication of that from the Fed yesterday.

HOLLAND: All they have to do is stop looking at these reams of numbers they get, generated by bureaucrats. Look at what companies are telling them, like Dell, Intel, OfficeMax. Things are slowing down worldwide. They can't raise prices. There's no inflation. We have slowing growth.

GHARIB: All right. thank you so much.

HOLLAND: Thank you, Susie.

GHARIB: I love having you on the program. And we've been speaking with Mike Holland of Holland & Company.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

10/04/2000: AT&T Can't Seem to Ring Up Profits

SUSIE GHARIB: AT&T's (T) stock rose $0.56 to $29.69 today. But the stock is still in the dumps, about half of what it was earlier this year. It's considering ways to change that. But as Stephanie Woods reports, AT&T has little room to maneuver.

STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: AT&T is in a tough spot. Startups and established companies alike are eating away at its market share. At the same time investors are growing impatient for its stock to rebound.

DWIGHT ALLEN, CONSULTANT, DELOITTE & TOUCHE RESEARCH: They are constantly being told by Wall Street that it's not happening fast enough and the prospects aren't sufficiently good to make it worthwhile anyhow.

WOODS: Analyst Rob Gensler calls it the earnings trap.

ROB GENSLER, TELECOM ANALYST, T. ROWE PRICE: Your shareholders want earnings, but the real reality for strategic imperative is you need to cannibalize your own businesses.

WOODS: AT&T has been reluctant to do that, instead keeping its price structure intact and its margins the largest in the industry. But that has left the company vulnerable to lower cost rivals. To boost its prospects, AT&T is reportedly considering spinning off its consumer long distance business. It is also considering buying wireless company Nextel (NXTL) and strengthening its ties with British Telecom (BTY).

GENSLER: And the board has the dilemma of do they do what could be a near term fix, i.e. breaking the company up and doing a sum of the parts that some would argue could get the stock into the low 40's. But then again if you did that, are you really helping any of those businesses strategically? I would argue you're not, you're hurting them.

WOODS: And even if AT&T does go for a quick fix, many analysts don't expect it will change the company's fortunes overnight.

MEL MARTEN, TELECOM ANALYST, EDWARD JONES: You have to remember that this is a very big company and there is no magic bullet for AT&T here that's going to turn the company around in the next three months.

WOODS: AT&T wouldn't comment for this story. Analysts say all the speculation around the company isn't doing much to boost investor confidence and may even make it harder for management to make the tough choices. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


10/04/2000: A Preview of September's Employment Report

PAUL KANGAS: Friday's upcoming September employment report will no doubt receive some close scrutiny for signs of a slowing economy after the Federal Reserve voted yesterday to keep interest rates unchanged again.

Joining me now to look into what we might expect is Mark Serlin, economist with BridgeNews in Washington. Welcome back, Mark.

MARK SERLIN, ECONOMIST, BRIDGENEWS: Hi, Paul.

KANGAS: What should we be looking for in this jobs report?

SERLIN: Well, right off the bat we know that more census workers are going to be coming off government payrolls. So that means attention should immediately focus on private. At the same time, we know there is about 75,000 strikers coming back. So the thing to look at is private payrolls, subtracting out 75,000.

But the most important part of the report, I think, is going to be the work week. We've seen a very sharp contraction in the work week lately.

KANGAS: Yes, you predicted that on your last visit with me. Yeah.

SERLIN: Yeah, and it has been trending lower and if it continues to do so, it's going to be of major concern. As the data stand right now, it looks like the quarterly growth rate in total hours worked for the third quarter could actually be negative. That's a major sign that economic activity is slowing.

KANGAS: But yesterday the Fed warned the labor market is tight, isn't that right?

SERLIN: It did and the labor marked is tight in the sense that the unemployment rate is still very low. But there is other measures of labor market tightness, the labor force participation rate, the employment to population ratio. Both of those measures have come way off their cycle highs.

KANGAS: OK.

SERLIN: That suggests that while the labor market is tight, it's not as tight as it was before.

KANGAS: Now, I know you look at something called the diffusion indices. What are they and why should we look at those?

SERLIN: It's a measure that shows how broad based any gains are. If payrolls are up a lot but the increase in payrolls is concentrated in one industry, it's of less significance than if payrolls are up a lot and the gains are broad based.

KANGAS: OK.

SERLIN: So the diffusion index will show how broad based any payroll job gains are.

KANGAS: Mark, how realistic is the Fed's warning yesterday that another rate hike just might be necessary because of the tight labor market and so forth?

SERLIN: It's a legitimate concern. Oil prices are going up. The main thing is will the increase in energy prices prompt an increase in inflation expectations? If there is evidence to show that that is becoming the case, then the Fed will continue to tighten. But you have to remember, the Fed is in, you know, the central bank business and their job is to be vigilant on inflation. So you would expect them to come out with comments like that.

KANGAS: All right. Interesting, Mark. Thanks very much. We appreciate your thoughts.

SERLIN: Thank you.

KANGAS: My guest, Mark Serlin, economist with BridgeNews.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



10/04/2000: "Money File" - The Price of Online Investing Fraud

SUSIE GHARIB: In the money file tonight, when it comes to online investing, does crime pay? Tonight's commentator suggests that it might. Here's Charles Jaffe, Personal Finance Columnist for the "Boston Globe."

CHARLES JAFFE, PERSONAL FINANCE COLUMNIST, "BOSTON GLOBE": A few weeks ago the Securities and Exchange Commission declared open season on online investors. It happened when the nation's main regulatory agency settled a fraud case against a 15-year-old New Jersey boy who used his computer to play pump and dump. The kid hyped stocks with bogus data posted under a flurry of screen names then captured quick profits by selling to the suckers he helped create.

The SEC made the kid pay back $270,000 in profits from trades made after he disseminated false information. The problem is that the agency didn't pursue all of the kid's suspect trades. As a result, the boy kept more money than he gave back, leaving the public with the message that crime pays. Even if the SEC catches you in the act, there is a good chance the agency will cut a deal that lets you keep a tidy profit. That the kid not only profited, but is being treated by some people as a precocious enterprising new economy hero shows that stock fraud is considered a victimless crime. It's not.

The victims are ordinary investors who fail to live by buyer beware, letting their guard down and trading on impulse or taking advice that they have not checked out completely. Everyone knows better than to make those mistakes yet real people keep getting suckered. With the SEC's message that crime pays you can expect these kinds of frauds to get worse. That means you are a target. Protect yourself because no one else out there can do it as well as you. I'm Charles A. Jaffe.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.


10/04/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened widely mixed today, with more earnings warnings in the tech sector sending the NASDAQ Index down another 42 points by 10:30 a.m. on top of yesterday's sharp 113-point tumble; while the blue chips attracted renewed demand as the Dow Industrial Average rose 90 points an hour into the trading session. Low price-earnings multiples and optimism about steady earnings improvement continue to bolster the blue chips for the rest of the morning. But the tech stocks joined the upturn as bargain hunters moved in, following a 9 percent drop in the NASDAQ Index in just the three previous trading days. By 1:00 p.m. then, the Industrial Average moved to a 101-point gain, and the NASDAQ was up 28 1/2 points. The tech sector took the spotlight away from the blue chips in afternoon trading, and the Dow Industrial Average slowly faded a bit to close up 64.74 at 10,784.48. In today's 137-point trading range, the Dow closed down 65 1/2 points from the best level of the session, and up 71 points from the low. The NASDAQ Composite managed a gain of 67.27 at 3523.10. In its 150-point trading range, the Composite Index settled only 9 1/2 points below its very best level of the day, and up 140 1/2 from the low.

Big board volume today moved above 1.1 billion shares. Nicely higher than yesterday. And up volume exceeded down volume by a rather slim margin, maybe about 45 million shares.

The Dow Transport Index up nearly 62 points. The airlines rallied on lower oil prices.

The Utility Index however under the brunt of profit-taking, down 11 1/4.

The Closing Tick practically neutral at +24.

Standard & Poor's 500 up 7.86.

Exactly a 4-point gain in the 100.

The MidCap 400 edged up .77.

And the Bridge Futures Price Index rose .58.

Just over a 1/2 point gain in the New York Stock Exchange Composite.

Value Line rising just over 2 points.

Little over 2 3/4-point run-up in the Russell2000 Small Cap Index.

And the Broadly-Based Wilshire 5000 up 87.18 points.

The bond market was still on the defensive today because of the Fed's warnings yesterday that it was still on inflation alert. Many analysts were expecting a more neutral stance. The report that August new factory orders jumped a stronger-than-expected 2 percent was another negative, and the market also lacked safe-haven buying because of the nice rally in stocks, especially the NASDAQ.

Tax free and corporate issues closed down only 8s though, and the Treasury market mostly lower; but not big drops.

A 4/32 loss in the 5-year note.

10-year note down 9/32, with the yield up to 5.90 percent.

No change at all on the 30-year bond.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index fell about 3 1/4 points.

It was one of those rare days of late when both the blue chip Dow and the NASDAQ markets closed nicely on the up side, the Industrial Average up 64 3/4 points. But the broader market actually lower by a 15 to 13 margin; 58 new yearly highs, 83 new lows.

Lucent Technologies (LU) on 18.1 million shares topped the active list, moving up $2.88.

EMC (EMC) fell $1.25. It traded as low as $.86. The only news I saw, the chairman has filed to sell 2.1 million EMC shares.

Firstar (FSR) down $2.25. You just heard the story, going to be acquiring U.S. Bancorp, and that stock rose $1.81 to $25. That deal is worth a little over $25 in Firstar stock.

Nortel Networks (NT) was up $1.44. Of course yesterday First Boston repeated a "strong buy."

Xerox (XRX) falling to another low, down $0.25 and fifth in volume.

Citigroup (C) fell $2.

Guidant (GDT), a major loss of $11.81. The company predicting lower than expected third quarter revenues of $600 million. But the company did today get FDA marketing approval for its new coronary stent system. Customers apparently had been holding off buying the old stent system to await the approval of the new and now that's happened.

AT & T (T) up $0.56. May be spinning off that long distance business.

Computer Associates (CA) up $3.56. The company sees second quarter earnings coming in at $0.50 to $0.54, not as bad as generally expected, although below the Street consensus of $0.56 and First Boston today did maintain a "buy" rating so the stock ended in the plus column.

Pfizer (PFE) was down $1.44, 10th in volume.

Agilent Technologies (A) rising $4.50. The company announced a major advancement in its chip technology.

Delta Air (DAL) rising $2.06. Of course, oil in New York dropped over $0.65 a barrel.

And then Fox Entertainment Group (FOX) dropping $1 after Morgan Stanley Brokerage downgraded it from "strong buy" to just "outperform."

Intimate Brands (IBI) up $2 a share. September same store sales rose a respectable 10 percent.

Micron Technology (MU) up $3.88. Now, after the close, the company did report fourth quarter earnings of $1.20 a share. That's way up from the Street estimate of only $0.96. And in after hours trading, Micron stock was just above $47 a share.

Tribune Company (TRB) down $4.56. Morgan Stanley downgraded it from "outperform" to just "neutral."

Quantum Hard Disk Drive Group (HDD), you just heard the story. It's going to be acquired, the disk drive unit, by Maxtor for about 1 1/2 shares of Maxtor. It works out to about $14 a share in value.

China Mobile HK Limited (CHL) up $5.06. Vodafone (VOD) says it's going to invest $2.5 billion in this company. They are in an alliance.

Arrow Electronics (ARW) had a good day, up $4.13. The company sees third quarter earnings exceeding the second quarter's $0.85 a share and it'll exceed it by at least 15 percent so a nice move there.

Saga Systems (AGS) the big percentage loser of the day, down $2.56. The company sees lower than expected third quarter earnings of only $0.02 to $0.04. The company blames the fact that several deals failed to close before the end of the quarter.

Minerals Technologies (MTX) down $8.19. The company sees lower than expected third quarter earnings of $0.72 a share. The Street was looking for $0.82.

And Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) down $2.77. This company says this year's earnings will be below last year's $2.68 a share.

NASDAQ trading, a gain of just about 67 1/4 points. Volume over 2.1 billion shares, very active day. About 19 stocks up for every 21 down.

Oracle (ORCL) topped the active list. It was down $1.38 on the close, but it hit a low of 60 1/2 in the morning so it did make a very impressive comeback.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) up $3.08.

Microsoft (MSFT) fell $1.13.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) rising $2.31.

Intel (INTC) was up $1.69, fifth in NASDAQ dollar volume.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) up over $6.50.

A similar gain in JDS Uniphase (JDSU).

Ariba (ARBA) snapping back sharply, up $17.28.

SDL (SDLI) had a good day, too, up $20.

And then Dell Computer (DELL) down $0.38 on the regular close. But in after hours trading it was just bel