10/11/00: Earnings Warnings Rock Wall Street
SUSIE GHARIB: Wall Street got whiplash today. Tech and Internet
stocks were hammered again in a day of wild trading swings, dragging the NASDAQ
to its lowest point since January; then bouncing back a bit, closing down 72 points.
The Dow tumbled 110. Once again, investors are jittery about earnings, warnings
and the outlook for big-name tech stocks. Here's Scott Gurvey with more.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: he
NASDAQ really took it on the chin today. The sell-off began early, and at one
point, the Composite tested the low setback in May. That low held, and the average
recovered. Still, the NASDAQ Composite is down 22 percent for the year, and 37
percent below the record set in March. Market watchers say investors are breaking
down under the load of multiple worries: a slowdown in growth, leading to a slowdown
in earnings, as well as external factors. The sentiment is as gloomy as many have
seen for years.
ASH RAJAN, SR. MARKET ANALYST, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES: We
are factoring an absolutely horrible and horrendous earnings visibility in the
third and fourth quarter with a kind of multiple compression that we've seen in
the market. So all I'm saying is, even if we get a halfway decent third quarter
with a fairly decent guideline for the fourth, we jump, we jump back. But the
question is: what's going to give that rally legs is if we also put Band-Aids,
or good Band-Aids, on oil and currency in Europe.
GURVEY: One bright spot in the gloom has been the drug sector.
Badly beaten down in recent years, analysts say today this sector can provide
what the tech sector can not.
COREY DAVIS, ANALYST, CHASE H&Q: There's a lot of certainty
in the drug stocks in a quarter where you have got a lot of uncertainty in the
tech stocks. So a couple of high-profile misses. Companies like Yahoo! (YHOO)
and Lucent (LU), you've got absolutely none of that in the drug sector. The fundamentals
are fantastic. You've got both certainty here and now, as well as out two years.
People are convinced that drug stocks can continue to grow.
GURVEY: The reason for that is stable long-term demand due
to an aging population, and new research in genomics and other developments bringing
many new drugs to market. Chase H&Q likes, in particular, Schering-Plough
(SGP). The analysts point to new formulations of "about to go off patent"
drugs, like Claritin, and Glaxo (GLX) - SmithKline (SBH) which will be neck-and-neck
with Pfizer (PFE) once the merger is complete. Tomorrow, investors can look forward
to earnings reports from General Motors (GM) and J.P. Morgan (JPM), among others.
Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
10/11/00: Europe Says Yes To AOL/Time
Warner Merger
SUSIE GHARIB: You've got approval, that's what the European
Commission told America Online (AOL) and Time Warner (TWX) today. The panel gave
the OK for the $129 billion deal after Time Warner abandoned its joint venture
with EMI and AOL agreed to sever ties with German media group Bertelsmann . But
as Stephanie Woods reports, those concessions don't address concerns by regulators
here in the U.S. about open access to the Internet.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ORRESPONDENT: If
you subscribe to Time Warner's high speed Internet service, you get Time Warner
owned Roadrunner as your Internet service provider. Once the merger with America
Online takes place, customers will get AOL. AOL and Time Warner say they will
open their network to other Internet service providers. But Earthlink (ELNK),
the second largest provider of Internet service, says Time Warner hasn't lived
up to its promise.
DAVID BAKER, VICE PRESIDENT, EARTHLINK: And they've been
offering, "offering" access to unaffiliated companies such as ours and
many other ISPs on terms that are so lopsided that, as a practical matter, we
are unable to offer service on their system.
WOODS: Companies like Disney (DIS) are worried AOL/Time
Warner will use its clout in the market to favor its own content, say CNN over
ABC news. Disney points to Time Warner's move this spring to take ABC off some
cable systems as evidence that trend has already started.
PRESTON PADDEN, EXEC. VP/GOVT. RELATIONS, THE WALT DISNEY
COMPANY: There are already competitive problems posed by AOL and there are already
competitive problems posed by Time Warner. But those problems have been manageable.
You allow this merger to take place, this unprecedented aggregation of market
power, and you've got something the likes of which we've never seen before.
WOODS: Regulators are negotiating with America Online and
Time Warner to legally bind them to open networks. Analyst Paul Glenshur says
what they agree to could impact the entire cable industry.
PAUL GLENCHUR, ANALYST, SCHWAB CAPITAL MARKETS: The real
concern within the investment community is to what extent will the upside in the
cable industry be limited because the government is beginning to set the terms
for negotiations for access arrangements.
WOODS: Regulators have threatened to block the merger if
an agreement can't be reached. Still, the companies say they are on track to close
their deal this fall. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line
post broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted
at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do
not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
10/11/00: CEO For The New Economy: Roger Siboni, CEO,
Epiphany
PAUL KANGAS: Shares of Epiphany (EPNY) lost ground again
today. The Internet software company is one of Wall Street's more erratic stocks.
The chief executive officer of E.piphany is in the spotlight tonight as we continue
our special business week CEOs for the new economy. Suzanne Pratt spoke with Roger
Siboni about the stock and asked when the company might be profitable.
ROGER SIBONI, CEO, Epiphany: We don't forecast things like
that, but I can say that the Street and the analysts that follow us expect us
to be profitable by the end of next year and we're comfortable with where the
Street is.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: I
believe your earnings are going to be out, your third quarter earnings are due
out on October 19th. The Street has you at a loss of $0.32. Are you comfortable
with those estimates?
SIBONI: Well, we're in our quiet period right now, so we
really can't comment on our earnings or results. But what I will say is, I think
that we've been demonstrating since we've gone public a great track record of
growth and a good sense of building the right kind of capital position so that
we have real long term staying power.
PRATT: Your stock is one of the most volatile on Wall Street.
I looked at the chart yesterday and it was pretty scary-IPO at $16, high of over
$300, now in the $70's. In the last month, it's lost a lot of ground. Where do
you see E.piphany valued at?
SIBONI: I think in terms of the sector we're in, even through
the ups and downs we've performed fairly well on a comparative basis. You know,
it's so hard, and I talk to our employees about this all the time, as well, when
you try to run your company based on stock pressure evaluation, you're only going
to drive yourself crazy and drive your employees crazy. We kind of run by a philosophy
that we have to deliver against expectations, keep our customers satisfied and
grow and build our company around a few core values. And if we do that over time
the stock price will take care of itself.
PRATT: What other company is a good peg, do you think, for
your valuation or for valuation?
SIBONI: It's kind of interesting, rather than pick a company,
I'd kind of say that we fit enter a category of ECRM or CRM companies. And those
companies include commerce server companies like Art Group (ARTG) or Vignette
(VIGN). It includes sales force automation companies like Siebel. It includes
e-mail companies, e-mail handling companies like Cona . So we tend to trade in
that pack, in that group of companies. And it's interesting, we've all kind of
shared the same ride, although I think more rest recently the market is beginning
to differentiate amongst companies and on a relative basis, you know, I think
we're rewarding companies that are, you know, building their companies on fundamentals.
PRATT: Epiphany has been rather acquisitive in the past.
What are your plans going forward in terms of future acquisitions?
SIBONI: Well, when we look at our technology footprint,
we're always thinking about how can we improve the customer experience. And we'll
look at things like understanding the customer, marketing to the customer, servicing
and supporting that customer and ultimately selling to that customer. And when
you look at those problems, we ask ourselves, can we build the best technology
or can we find it somewhere. And we're pretty open to that. We're not in love
with our own technology. We're focusing on what technology will solve the problem
best. That means that we're constantly evaluating build or buy.
PRATT: Thank you for joining us, Roger Siboni of Epiphany.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line
post broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted
at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do
not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
10/11/00: The Presidential Elections & The Economy
SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight Americans will get their second chance
to watch the two major presidential candidates debate. Whoever moves into the
White House in January will have an impact on the economy, which will impact the
Federal Reserve. Joining us now from Washington, D.C. to talk about this is Ed
Kean, Chief Financial Correspondent of BridgeNews. Ed, would there be a big difference
in monetary policy between a Bush presidency and a Gore presidency?
ED KEAN, CHIEF FINANCIAL CORRESPONDENT, BRIDGENEWS: Well,
I think the outcome would depend not only the outcome of the presidential election
but also what happens in the Congressional elections. Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan has made it clear that his preference is to allow the budget surpluses
to run. So if you have a situation where one party controls not only the White
House, but both Houses of Congress, I think that would generate concern in the
bond market that the next president and the next Congress would pursue a much
more expansionary budget policy. And I think that would concern the Federal Reserve.
KANGAS: So much for the budget surplus, in other words.
KEAN: Correct.
KANGAS: Yeah.
KEAN: I think actually the bond market probably would prefer
a continuation of divided government, because they think that neither party would
be able to gain an upper hand to push through either their big tax cuts or their
big spending programs.
KANGAS: In other words, gridlock is good?
KEAN: Gridlock is very good for the bond market is the way
one bond market analyst I spoke to today put it.
KANGAS: Ed, is the stock market's recent downturn, especially
the NASDAQ, giving us a clue as to who is going to win the presidency?
KEAN: Well, the stock market has been sliding now for several
weeks and during that time the polls have swung back and forth between Gore and
Bush. So I suspect that the, that it's not giving us a clue about that, that it
may be more telling us about that there's some uneasiness about the uncertainty
about who who's going to win the election. But it seems that the stock market's
decline has been more driven by concern about corporate earnings. I also suspect
that this rise in, this persistent rise in oil prices has something to do with
it, too.
KANGAS: Good point. Very good. Thanks very much for being
with us, Ed.
KEAN: Thank you.
KANGAS: My guest Ed Kean, Chief Financial Correspondent
of BridgeNews.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
10/11/00: "Money File"-Is Now The Time To Sell
Your Stock?
SUSIE GHARIB: If you've watched the markets head south over
the last few months, you might be wondering if it's time now to buy. But tonight's
money file commentator suggests it might be time to sell. Here's Brooke Stephens,
author of "Talking Dollars and Making Sense."
BROOKE STEPHENS, AUTHOR, "TALKING DOLLARS AND MAKING
SENSE": OK, admit it, you're getting scared as you watch your favorite blue
chips doing a slow slide into negative territory. And that tech stock portfolio
which had you dreaming of early retirement is now producing some sleepless nights,
as even the biggies like Intel (INTC) warn of disappointing earnings. With the
NASDAQ down 33 percent since its March peak, you're asking the second hardest
question every investor faces-is it time to sell. That depends on why you bought
the stocks in the first place. Did you invest for retirement or college tuition
which are more than 10 years away? Then if you own good quality stocks that are
temporarily depressed, just ride it out and hang on for recovery. The longest
down cycle in stock market history was the 34 months following the '29 crash,
which was follow by 12 years of growth. If you're too nervous to ride it out,
did you set a target price for profits when you bought the stock? Some experts
say you should maintain a stop loss order with your broker to sell anything that
drops more than 10 percent from your purchase price. But that's not possible with
mutual funds. If a capital loss will give you a much needed tax break this year,
then dump the dogs and take the write off. Remember, you can always buy back in
at a later date if you don't mind paying hefty commissions for the round trip
experience. It all comes back to the first question every investor should ask-why
did you buy this investment? Only you can answer that. I'm Brooke Stephens.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
10/11/00: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street's blue chip Dow Industrial Average
opened modestly higher today, posting a 31.5-point gain at 10:00 a.m. and a little
technical rebound from its 260-point, or 2.4 percent drop in the previous four
sessions. The NASDAQ Index however, fell nearly 40 points at the outset, reflecting
continuing investor disappointment with the high-tech earnings outlook after Motorola
(MOT), Lucent and Yahoo! all presented lower-than-expected growth projections
late yesterday. Even General Electric's (GE) report today of a 20 percent jump
in third-quarter earnings couldn't stop an all-embracing market sell-off over
the next hour, as the NASDAQ Index with a 115-point loss at 11:00 a.m. hit its
lowest level of the year; and by 11:30 a.m., that plunge helped send the Dow to
a 151-point deficit. Afternoon trading finally brought some buyers out of the
sidelines, and although they were not particularly aggressive, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average did manage to cut its closing loss to 110.61 points, or 1.1 percent. It
now stands at 10,413.79. In today's 216-point trading range, the Industrial Average
closed down 153 points from the best level of the session, and up 63 points from
the low. The NASDAQ Composite ended with a loss of 72.05, at 3168.49. In its 155-point
trading range, the Composite Index has settled 90 points below its best of the
day; up 65 points from the low of the session.
Big board volume heavy, nearly 1.4 billion shares, well
up from yesterday; and about looks like a 2 1/2 to 1 ratio of down volume over
up volume.
The Dow Transport Index losing nearly 51 3/4 points.
Utilities, however, up 1.61.
The Closing Tick practically neutral at -56.
Standard & Poor's 500 lost nearly 22 1/2 points.
13 2/3-point drop in the 100.
The MidCap 400 off 6 2/3.
And the Bridge Futures Price Index rose 1.26.
New York Stock Exchange Composite almost a 10-point loser.
A 6-point drop in the Value Line.
Russell2000 Small Cap Index losing nearly 7 points.
And the Broadly-Based Wilshire 5000 off just over 214 1/2
points.
As has been the case so often recently, the bond market
moved in the opposite direction of stock prices today because when equities tumble,
investors look for safe haven in the debt market. The severe sell-off in NASDAQ
around mid-session sent low risk highly-liquid short-term Treasuries high enough
to cut their yields to 11-month lows. The late rally in stocks, however, weighed
on bonds, resulting in practically no closing changes in tax free and corporates.
While the Treasury market ended narrowly mixed.
The 5-year notes edging 1/32 higher.
As did the 10-year notes, with the yield at 5.78 percent.
30-year bond down 5/32. There's your mixture.
And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index gained
nearly 2 points.
Another day decidedly on the down side, although stocks
did recover rather nicely late in the day. The Dow still down 110.61 or 1.1 percent
and over 1,000 more declining issues than gainers on the big board. Only 42 new
yearly highs, 205 new lows.
Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the active list on a massive
71.2 million shares, the stock losing 32 percent of its value with that loss of
over $10, of course, in the wake of yesterday's earnings warning.
Motorola (MOT) down $4.94. That's a drop of nearly 19 percent,
despite earnings in line after the close yesterday. But those growth projections
disappointing.
Texas Instruments (TXN) down $1.63.
Nortel Networks (NT) lost $2.38 even though Salomon Smith
Barney repeated a "buy" recommendation today.
Citigroup, in a weak financial sector, down $1.56.
AT & T (T) lost $1.63, a new low for the year.
Nokia (NOK) nearing a new low with that loss of $1.94.
America Online (AOL) fell $2.36.
And General Electric (GE), despite reporting third quarter
earnings of $0.32, up from last year's $0.27 and in line with estimates on an
18 percent jump in revenues, the company also said it's comfortable with 2000
earnings estimates on the Street of $1.27 a share, still down $1.50.
No change in EMC (EMC), which was 10th in volume.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down $0.50 on the regular trading,
but it moved up as high as $23.50, maybe a little better than then, after hours.
The company after the final bell reported third quarter earnings $0.64, up from
$0.62, the Street estimate of $0.62. Last year it lost money, actually. Burlington
Resources (BR) rising $2.50. The story here, the Goldman Sachs Brokerage upgraded
it from "market outperform" to a "trading buy." Of course,
the company's in the oil and natural gas business.
Conoco (COCB) up $1.88. The company says one of its exploratory
wells off the coast of Vietnam is actually producing over 17,000 barrels a day.
Delphi Auto Systems (DPH) up $1. The company out today with
third quarter earnings, $0.26 a share, in line with Street estimates and up from
$0.24 a year ago.
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD) rose $3. The company says
total net trading revenues from global high yield bonds operations are positive
year-to-date and that pretty well refutes the recent argument that the company
has been experiencing huge losses.
And UAL (UAL), in a weak airline group, down $1.19.
Watson Wyatt & Company Holdings (WW), this company's
involved in staffing and personnel consulting, and it went public today. 5.6 million
shares offered at $12.50. The stock opened at $14.88 and the high of the day $16.44.
It closed very close to the high.
Barr Laboratories (BRL) up $8.13 after Buckingham Research
Brokerage issued a "strong buy."
Lone Star Technologies (LSS) rose $5.85. The Dane Rauscher
Brokerage repeated a "strong buy" there.
Scientific-Atlanta (SFA), one of the big percentage losers,
down $8.25 in sympathy with the other high tech sell-off stocks.
And then Alaska Air Group (ALK) losing $3.44. The company
sees lower than expected earnings in the third quarter of $0.50 to $0.70. The
First Call estimate was $1.26.
Benchmark Electronics (BHE) lost $5.19 in sympathy with
Lucent (LU) but the Stephens Brokerage (ph) says that drop is unwarranted and
repeated a "buy."
NASDAQ trading, a loss of 72 points in the Index. Look at
that volume, 2.32 billion shares, the fourth highest on record. For every 12 stocks
up, 27 down.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) topped the active list, moving up $0.06.
But Intel (INTC) was down $2.19.
Sun Micro (SUNW) fell $1.31.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) edged up $0.06.
Yahoo! (YHOO) dropping $17.31.
And then JDS Uniphase (JDSU) off $4.75.
Microsoft (MSFT) bucked the overall trend, up $1.19.
Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) down nearly $11.
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