SUSIE GHARIB: A nail-biting day on Wall Street and all around the country. The outcome of the presidential election is still too close to call. And a recount of votes in Florida is underway tonight. This uncertainty and confusion added up to negativity on Wall Street. The Dow fell 45 points and the NASDAQ plunged almost 200. We have two reports this evening, looking at the political and market implications. We begin in Washington, with Darren Gersh.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Texas governor, George W. Bush said he expected that ballots in Florida will be recounted by tomorrow afternoon, and he would then officially become president-elect Bush. And he sought to bring the country together.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America has a long tradition of uniting, once elections are over. Secretary Cheney and I will do everything in our power to unite the nation.

GERSH: But if it comes down to absentee ballots, the vote-counting in Florida may stretch to ten days. The vice president said, given what's at stake, he wanted to make sure the job was done right.

U.S. VICE PRES. AL GORE, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What is at issue here is the fundamental fairness of the process as a whole; because of what is at stake, this matter must be resolved expeditiously, but deliberately and without any rush to judgment.

GERSH: With so much up in the air, sleep-deprived political analysts in Washington were working the phones today, fielding calls from investors. Their conclusion: if, as it now appears, Bush prevails, he will not have a mandate for major changes in Social Security, taxes or Medicare, because of the way he won.

GREG VALLIERE, POLITICAL ANALYST, SCHWAB WASHINGTON RESEARCH: It looks like Bush probably will eke out a win when all is said and done, but you have got to say that it could be viewed as a tainted victory for him. He didn't win the popular vote. There's a real question about the voting in Florida, and for years and years to come, this may be viewed as a tainted election.

GERSH: With Republicans losing seats in the House, and the Senate perhaps headed towards a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans, analysts say Bush's only option may be to focus on popular issues, like a prescription drug benefit for seniors. But even that could be difficult.

JOAN WOODWARD, POLITICAL ANALYST, GOLDMAN SACHS: There is bipartisan support in the Congress. The question is: is there enough votes for the way Bush wants to do it?

GERSH: You could say the real winner in Washington is Alan Greenspan. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have secured a clear mandate, leaving the Fed chairman a freer hand to manage the nation's economy. Darren Gersh, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: This is Scott Gurvey on Wall Street. The markets wanted to react to the election today. But with the election in doubt, so, too, was the proper reaction strategy. The results: low volume, volatility and most trading decisions being made without regard to last night's lack of results.

DOUGLAS CLIGGOTT, EQUITIES STRATEGIST, J.P. MORGAN SECS.: Most people that are involved in the market today are probably assuming Mr. Bush wins. And I think there's so much uncertainty that you, you almost had to assume lower-than-normal volume.

GURVEY: The Dow rose above the 11,000 mark before pulling back to close with a loss. Dow winners for the day were stocks thought to benefit from a Bush victory. Merck (MRK) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in the medical sector; Philip Morris (MO) in tobacco; ExxonMobil (XOM) in energy. Microsoft (MSFT) was strong at the open. The thought here is that a Bush administration will be far more likely to reach a settlement in the Microsoft antitrust case. But Microsoft turned negative as the NASDAQ malaise took control of the market. Fear of future earnings for technology companies proved stronger than any election optimism. The NASDAQ dropped more than 5 percent. The closeness of the election, for both president and Congress, is expected to be a long-term positive for the markets. Investors believe few radical changes in spending and taxing programs will be possible in the gridlock that will result.

RONALD HILL, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN: The obvious reaction there was probably nothing really major or punitive is going to happen against the pharmaceutical and health care industry. So the big winner today in the market were pharmaceutical stocks, HMO stocks, hospital management stocks, because they have been spared sort of a legislative drubbing, I think, given the results here.

GURVEY: Also heard on the Street today, concerns that recounts and lawsuits may delay the process of electing a president for a considerable period of time. That would most certainly unsettle the markets. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/08/00: Election 2000 The Analysis Of The Outcome

SUSIE GHARIB: With the outcome of the most hotly contended presidential race in 124 years still up in the air, what does all this mean for the stock market and the economy? I have two guests with me here in New York City to talk about this, Phil Orlando, Chief Investment Officer of Value Line Asset Management and David Jones, Chief Economist of Aubrey Lanston and also a highly respected Fed watcher. And welcome this evening, gentlemen, to you both.

PHILIP ORLANDO, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, VALUE LINE ASSET MANAGEMENT: Nice to be with you.

DAVID JONES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUBREY G. LANSTON: Thank you.

GHARIB: Phil, let me start with you, I mean this thing could take a long time, beyond just the recount till tomorrow. With that kind of uncertainty hanging over the market, what does that mean for the outlook of the stock market?

ORLANDO: The market hates uncertainty and you're exactly right, it's going to take at least until tomorrow night for the recount to take place. The absentee ballots may be another 10 days. And the Electoral College, which is going to meet some time in the first half of December, isn't necessarily emboldened to vote exactly the way the popular vote went. So we may not know who the President of the United States is-

GHARIB: So what happens to trading in this time period?

ORLANDO: Well, I think what may just happen is we tread water, hopefully, and we don't collapse in the interim. But it's certainly going to be a lot of uncertainty over the next four weeks.

GHARIB: David, we don't know who the next president's going to be, but we do know the results from Congress and Congress does not have a broad mandate, even though there's a tip towards the Republicans. How might that gridlock impact the economy?

JONES: Well, let's start with where the economy is. As was hinted at in the earlier package, it's slowing down and stocks have already weakened and we have rising oil prices. So the new president, whomever it may be, will face an economy that looks very much different than we saw during the Clinton administration already, third quarter growth 2.7 percent, down from 5.6 in the second quarter. So we have to say that this is the starting point for the new president and then the issue is what can be done with a Congress as evenly divided.

GHARIB: But what happens to all the proposals for tax cuts, Social Security or spending programs of Gore, whichever candidate finally makes it, not going to happen?

JONES: It will be difficult. Odds are if it is Bush, he has the quality of being able to reach across the aisle and get some kind of bipartisan support, at least based on his record in Texas. So it may be that if we have a Bush presidency, stocks will do better because he's pro-business, the bond market will do worse because something in the form of a tax cut, maybe modified greatly, will go through. And maybe the dollar will strengthen. One thing that happened overnight that gave us a hint here, if we do resolve this issue sooner rather than later, hopefully, would be the dollar. The dollar strengthened when it looked like Bush was going to be president. When it went the other way the dollar weakened. So that's an important consideration globally.

GHARIB: One thing we did see is the market seemed to be behaving as if it was going to be a Bush victory. We saw HMO stocks, pharmaceutical stocks, tobacco stocks all rallying today. Are these opportunities that investors should jump in now?

JONES: Certainly I'm always in favor of buying good blue chip stocks at depressed prices and we have that situation now. I think to some degree, though, with the energy and health care sector, to a large degree you have the market reacting to the fact that we ended up with very narrow Republican majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives. So even if Mr. Gore ends up emerging victorious, a lot of the proposals that he wanted may not see the legislative light of day. So the market viewed that as a positive.

GHARIB: Phil, you told me that you were not doing any buying, you were just watching the markets today. But for investors, what advice would you give them what should they do in this interim indecisive period?

ORLANDO: Certainly I would not be a major seller into this. I would be looking to buy good quality companies that look like they're being oversold by the market.

GHARIB: Like?

ORLANDO: Well, certainly in the technology sector today there were a lot of good companies getting hit and a lot of the optical companies like Corning (GLW), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), PMS, Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS), companies like that were just getting trashed and they're getting to be extraordinarily attractive regardless of who wins the presidency.

GHARIB: Back to the economy, one of the points that came out in our reporting today was that maybe the most powerful winner in all this is Alan Greenspan. Let's say Bush wins. What kind of relationship might he have with Greenspan?

JONES: Well, let's think back to Bush's father when he was President. It was not a good one. A Republican administration, a Republican Fed Chairman, a lot of friction. The Fed criticized, was criticized in public by the previous Bush administration. One could conceive of a situation where difficulties again arise, particularly if a tax cut of some form is moved through. Let's say it starts to reduce the surplus, lessen fiscal restraint, Chairman Greenspan could turn around, this will be some time out in the future, and increase monetary restraints. So that would mean higher rates and even slower growth in the economy.

GHARIB: Not uplifting for the economy or for the markets. Real quickly, given all the indecision of this bizarre situation, given the gridlock in Congress, who would be better for the market than the economy, a President Bush or a President Gore, in a word?

JONES: Bush definitely, for stocks particularly.

ORLANDO: Bush would be much better for the economy and for the financial markets.

GHARIB: Well, we have some agreement here, at least on that. Thank you gentlemen so much for joining us on NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. And my guests this evening, Phil Orlando of Value Line Asset Management and David Jones of Aubrey Lanston.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




11/08/2000: What's Next For Small Caps?

PAUL KANGAS: Once all the election hoopla dies down, Wall Street will once again turn its attention to what really drives the markets-earnings. Joining us now from St. Louis to talk about what might be ahead for small cap stock earnings is Tom Wolfe, Equities Reporter for BridgeNews. And, Tom, welcome.

TOM WOLF, EQUITIES REPORTER, BRIDGENEWS: Good to be here, Paul.

KANGAS: Tell us how the trend for fourth quarter small cap earnings is shaping up.

WOLF: Well, we're definitely seeing a slowdown in the smaller companies. As of October 1st, analysts were saying that the S&P 600 Small Cap Index was supposed to go up about 33 percent from the fourth quarter a year ago. Today that's down to 24 percent.

KANGAS: What seems to be the major problem here?

WOLF: Well, we've got higher interest rates, higher oil prices and a slowing economy that are contracting sales and earnings.

KANGAS: How is that reflecting? Into what type of small cap firms, which might be experiencing the worst problems with regard to those issues?

WOLF: Well, probably the biggest slowdown has been in the technology sector. Analysts were projecting at one time a 94 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter and now that's down to 54 percent.

KANGAS: Oh, boy, that's quite an impact. How about those that are experiencing the best growth? What kind of small cap issues?

WOLF: Well, the basic growers are confined to the energy sector. We're seeing 400 to 500 percent growth rates in that area. Of course, that's against weak comparisons a year ago.

KANGAS: OK, so that makes it really look good, doesn't it?

WOLF: Right.

KANGAS: But the major problems, other than high energy prices and interest rates, anything else reflecting? Are these stocks reflecting the bad news?

WOLF: Well, there's been a slowdown in the technology sector in terms of Internet companies and emerging telecoms. They're drastically reduced their spending, some of them because they've had to. They just can't borrow any more money. Some of it has to do with the slowdown in semiconductor chip demand.

KANGAS: OK, so anyway, any brighter scenario for the first quarter of next year?

WOLF: Well, right now we're still seeing the effects of interest rate ripple through the economy and I think it's going to take another two or three quarters for that to be fully reflected.

KANGAS: All right, Tom. Thanks very much. We appreciate it.

WOLF: Thanks.

KANGAS: My guest, Tom Wolf, Equities Reporter for BridgeNews.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




11/08/2000: "Money File"- Charitable Stock Options

SUSIE GHARIB: In the money file tonight, making the world and your tax return a better place. Here's John Waggoner, Mutual Fund Columnist for "USA Today."

JOHN WAGGONER, MUTUAL FUND COLUMNIST, USA TODAY: How would you like to be able to lose weight and still be able eat an entire fried ox every night? Or pay down your credit card bills while spending like a drunken sailor? Well, unfortunately, some things really are too good to be true. But you can make the world a better place and reduce your taxes at the same time. Here's how. Let's say you invested in a stock mutual fund 10 years ago. If it's the average fund, a $2,000 investment is now worth $9,500. Sell those shares now and you'll owe a 20 percent tax on your gains, about $1,500. But let's say you had wanted to give this money to charity. If you sell the shares, pay the taxes and give the proceeds to charity, you'd be able to give them about $7,000. That's not bad. But there's a better way. Instead of selling your shares, give them to charity. You'll be able to deduct the full market value of the shares and you won't owe a penny in capital gains tax. Sound too good to be true? It's not. The IRS lets you deduct the current market value of the shares you give to charity without paying any capital gains taxes. What's the catch? None. But start now, not a week before new year's. Funds or brokerages can sometimes get backed up. If you run into a problem, it's nice to have a few weeks to spare. Start the ball rolling by calling your charity and asking for instructions. They'll be glad to help. You'll dodge a big tax bill and you'll make the world a better place. Heck, that's better than a fried ox dinner any day. I'm John Waggoner.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post-broadcast. The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date.

The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT.

Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.

©2000 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




11/08/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: The stock market actually opened modestly higher today, despite the news that the election outcome was in serious dispute. In early trading, the Dow Industrial Average rose as much as 38 points; the NASDAQ Index edged up 11 points. The uncertainty over the recounting of votes in Florida sent the tech sector spiraling lower, but investors sought the safety of stocks in the energy, tobacco and drug areas. And that helped the Dow move steadily to a 41-point gain by noontime while the tech-laden NASDAQ Index fell to an 82-point loss. The rally in blue chips was gradually undermined in afternoon trading by a steepening sell-off in the NASDAQ high-tech market. At the close, the Dow Industrial Average was down 45.12 at 10,907.06. In today's 99-point trading range, the Dow closed down 95 points from the best level of the session. The NASDAQ Composite tumbled 184.09 points to 3231.70. In its 198-point trading range, the Composite Index settled right near its worst level of the day.

Big board volume up 15 million shares from where it stood yesterday. And down volume exceeded up volume by about a 4 to 3 ratio.

The Dow Transport Index was up exactly 6.5 points.

Utility Index edged up .82.

The Closing Tick slightly bearish at -148.

Standard & Poor's 500 down just over 22.5 points.

Almost a 13-point drop in the 100.

The MidCap 400 off 5.69.

The Bridge Futures Price Index edged up .44.

New York Stock Exchange Composite down nearly 2 3/4.

Almost a 3 1/4-point drop on the Value Line.

Russell2000 Small Cap Index fell 5 1/3 points.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 off nearly 250 1/4 points.

Bond trading was very quiet today, largely because of the still-undecided presidential election. The bright spot of the day was a warm reception for the Treasury's $8 billion offering of 10-year notes which were priced to yield a lower-than-expected 5.865 percent. Safe haven buying in reaction to the high-tech sell-off also helped tax-free and corporate issues close up 1/8 point on average, while the Treasury market was mostly higher as well.

No change at all on the 5-year note.

But the 10-year note edged up 3/32, with the yield at 5.86 percent.

And the 30-year bond up 9/32.

While the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index gained 2.62.

Given the aura of great uncertainty on Wall Street today, the blue chip Dow Industrial Average gave a fairly good accounting of itself, down just a modest 45 points, 4/10 of a percent. The broader market lower by a 14 to 13 margin and yet almost 50 more new highs than new lows for the year. AT & T (T) topped the active list, losing $0.44 on 16.6 million shares. The company is planning the sale of major non-strategic assets and will use the proceeds to cut its massive $62 billion debt load.

Corning (GLW) down $6.75, hurt in that high tech sell-off.

Pfizer (PFE) moved up $0.56 even though a British court has ruled that one of the company's patents on Viagra is invalid.

Lucent Technologies (LU) fell $0.06.

Nortel Networks (NT) dropping $0.63, fifth in volume.

Merck (MRK) up $3.94. Lehman Brothers increased earnings estimates and upgraded the stock from "outperform" to "buy." The whole drug group did well today.

America Online (AOL) fell $1.31.

Citigroup down $1.69. Financials a little on the weak side.

Philip Morris (MO) moved up $1.44. The company said it expects to meet 2000 year earnings estimates.

And then EMC (EMC) down $8.94 in the weak high tech sector.

Amdocs Limited (DOX) down $2.06 among widely held issues. This company is into billing services software. After the close, the company reported fourth quarter earnings $0.25, a penny above Street estimates and way up from $0.15 last year.

ExxonMobil (XOM), the strong energy group, up $1.69.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) fell $3.38 in the weak financials.

Lehman Brothers (LEH) down $3.81. Bear Stearns cut earnings estimates.

And Morgan Stanley (MWD) fell $3.56 after Bear Stearns downgraded the stock from "attractive" to just "neutral."

Target Stores (TGT) was up $1.75. Morgan Stanley added this stock to its "buy" list. It has a 12 month target of $35 a share.

GenRad (GEN), the best percentage gainer we have here, up $1.50. The company makes electronic test equipment and it sees 2001 revenue growth averaging 15 to 20 percent.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) up $2.69. Third quarter earnings up 12 percent, $0.43, up from last year's $0.36. And Abercrombie is comfortable with Wall Street earnings estimates of $0.84 a share for the fourth quarter.

British Energy (BGY) moved up $1.13. The company promised higher future dividends despite reporting a first half loss today.

Analog Devices (ADI) second day in a row the big percentage loser, down another $7 after tumbling $8 yesterday on a Standard & Poor's downgrade from "buy" to just "accumulate."

Salton (SFP) down $2.75 despite higher first quarter earnings, $1.35, way up from $0.95. The stock has been rising in anticipation. So a little profit taking. Also, the company cited concerns by retailers that Christmas sales may be less than merry.

And SafeGuard Scientifics (SFE) down $1.69. It's a high tech incubator. It owes a lot of those stocks and, of course, hurt by today's sell-off in that sector.

NASDAQ trading a loss of 184 points or nearly 5 1/2 percent on the Index. Volume down about 22 million shares from yesterday. 13 stocks higher for every 24 lower.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $1.06.

Followed by Broadcom (BRCM), off another $24.69 after tumbling $42.50 yesterday on a W.R. Hambrecht downgrade.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell $4.63.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) down $11.13.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) dropped $22.50.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) off $5.63.

PMC-Sierra (PMCS) off $19.19.

Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) down $7.56.

CIENA (CIEN) off $13.38.