| 11/20/00:
The Road To The White House Detours At Florida's Supreme Court
SUSIE GHARIB: A new yearly low for the NASDAQ: it closed
well below the psychologically important 3000 level. More downgrades on high-profile
tech stocks dragged the NASDAQ down by 151 points, or 5 percent. The Dow also
posted a triple-digit loss: 167 points. Wall Street's pessimistic mood continued
about the outlook for earnings, the economy and the presidential election. Today,
the Florida Supreme Court heard arguments from both the Gore and Bush camps. Here's
Darren Gersh with the latest.
UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: Hear ye, hear ye, hear ye. The Supreme
Court of the great State of Florida is now in session.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: After
the formalities, the state's chief justice raised an issue he would return to
again and again: what was the deadline for making sure Florida's vote counted
in the electoral college?
CHARLES WELLS, CHIEF JUSTICE, FLORIDA SUPREME COURT: What's
the date, the outside date that we're looking at, in which puts Florida's votes
in jeopardy?
UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: December 12, your honor.
GERSH: Certainly markets would not welcome the idea of waiting
three more weeks for a winner. Analysts say the political uncertainty gives investors,
spooked by today's wave of downgrades in the tech sector, another reason to keep
their money in their pockets.
LESLIE ALPERSTEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST, WASHINGTON ANALYSIS:
The political uncertainty is encouraging investors, especially institutional investors,
to just hold off until they have a little bit more visibility on when this presidential
election is going to be decided; and that's creating an illiquid situation in
the market.
GERSH: Attorneys for Governor Bush and Florida's secretary
of state argued the court would have to rewrite Florida's election laws, if it
decided to allow the manual recounts to proceed.
JOSEPH KLOCK, COUNSEL, FLORIDA SECRETARY OF STATE: You're
going to have to do away with the secretary's discretion, and then the court enters
the great universe of "chad" to decide, on the record you have, whether
or not two corners are enough, or three corners are enough
GERSH: But time and again the justices pointed out that
previous cases required the court to err on the side of counting votes, whenever
possible.
MAJOR HARDING, JUSTICE, FLORIDA SUPREME COURT: And even
though the voter did not follow the instruction, but you can tell the intent of
the voter from that ballot, that that vote has to be counted.
GERSH: Which is why attorneys for the vice president argued
the recounts should continue.
DAVID BOIES, GORE CAMPAIGN ATTORNEY: This is a process,
that if people will simply get out of the way and let it continue, can be done
in a matter of days.
GERSH: A court ruling could come in the next few days, but
the legal maneuvering may turn out to be moot. So far, the hand recounts have
not turned up enough votes for the vice president to beat Governor Bush's 930-vote
lead. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
11/20/00: The Possible "Earthlink" To The AOL/Time
Warner Merger
PAUL KANGAS: America Online (AOL) and Time Warner (TWX)
say the completion of their merger will be delayed. The delay will let regulators
scrutinize a deal Time Warner announced today, letting Internet service provider
EarthLink (ELNK) use its high speed cable lines. As Stephanie Woods reports, it's
a key concession.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:
EarthLink is America Online's largest competitor. Letting EarthLink sell Internet
service over Time Warner's high speed cable lines is a major step toward getting
regulators to OK the AOL-Time Warner deal.
GARRY BETTY, CEO, EARTHLINK: It gives us sufficient margin
on the access side. It allows us to set our own retail prices. It allows for consumer
choice. When they are wanting to get high speed access over cable, they don't
have to just take what the cable company wants to provide them.
WOODS: Time Warner is also negotiating with Juno (JWEB)
and Microsoft's (MSFT) MSN on similar deals. The EarthLink agreement is expected
to be the model to satisfy regulators at the Federal Trade Commission.
SUSAN LYNNER, SR. POLICY ANALYST, PURDENTIAL WASHINGTON
RESEARCH: They want the AOL-Time Warner combination to sign up at least three
independent ISPs in fairly short order. Well, one of those berths is taken. So
the competition for the extra two seems to me now to be pretty fierce.
WOODS: Both America Online and Time Warner's stocks have
been under pressure since the marriage was announced in January. Analysts say
it will stay that way until the deal is finally done. AOL and Time Warner have
insisted all along that the merger will close in the fall. But today the companies
say that won't happen until late this year or early next.
ULRIC WEIL, SR. TECHNOLOGY ANALYST, FRIEDMAN, BILLINGS,
RAMSEY: People simply no longer know what to believe. It's almost like the election,
what do you believe? And so now, you know, they've gone to, AOL has gone to the
well so often with their assurances that people now say, yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's
just wait and see until you pull it off completely.
WOODS: It won't be until the middle of the next year before
Time Warner starts to offer AOL service on its high speed cable lines. Part of
the deal with EarthLink means AOL won't get a head start over competitors. Stephanie
Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
11/20/00: View From A Bridge-Investment Outlook
SUSIE GHARIB: As we've been reporting, it was a brutal day
for the market. There's a lot weighing on investors as they try to figure out
what their next move should be. So let's get the view from the Bridge, our roundtable
discussion at BridgeNews. On our panel tonight, Deborah Lagomarsino on monetary
policy, Michael Kahn on the market, and our special guest, Sherry Cooper, Chief
Global Economist at Harris Bank. Michael, the NASDAQ got slammed today. How much
lower is it going to go?
MICHAEL KAHN, CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BRIDGENEWS: We still
have a little more on the down side. I'm looking at some single percentage type
number, going to about low 2700 area. There's a trend line there that us technicians
like to follow. So, a little more damage to be done.
GHARIB: Not the kind of trend investors want to hear about.
Sherry, glad to have you on the program with us. They say that the stock market
is an indicator of how the economy is going to go six to nine months. Is the economic
recovery in trouble?
SHERRY COOPER, CHIEF GLOBAL ECONOMIST, HARRIS BANK: Well,
it is. I'm not expecting recession but we certainly are seeing a slowdown now.
There has been a substantial slowing in consumer spending as well as in business
activity. Manufacturing, especially basic industries, is already in recession.
So the economy is not looking anywhere near as positive as it once was.
GHARIB: Deborah, I've been hearing other economists talking
the way that Sherry has been and they are talking more and more about a rate cut
some time early next year. What are you finding?
DEBORAH LAGOMARSINO, MONETARY POLICY REPORTER, BRIDGENEWS:
Well, when you look at the statement from the November 15th meeting, they certainly
gave the indication they expect growth is going to slow to below trend in the
near term. That paves the way, really, for possibly for them to shift to a neutral
bias, which means they see the risks as balanced, possibly as soon as the December
meeting or even early next year. But I'm hearing a rate cut is still a little
ways off. The Fed's going to want to see more signs the economy is slowing, the
unemployment rate is still very low, the job market is still very tight. They're
going to want to see that loosen up a little bit before they move.
GHARIB: What about this ongoing election mess? To what extent
is that going to influence what the Fed should or shouldn't do?
COOPER: Well, it certainly does change sentiment. I mean
people are just stunned by this and they're not doing anything. So investors have
just moved to the sidelines and business activities are going slow as a result
of it. I think ultimately the Fed will probably have to ease sooner rather than
later.
GHARIB: Well, but given this scenario, Michael, any chances
of a year end rally?
KAHN: Well, this issue of the uncertainty of the election
certainly has put a damper on the market. The market hates uncertainty. But I
think this coverage is so widespread and everybody is looking at it, that the
rally may have already been factored into things and we may not get that big pop.
The bounce, yes, big pop I don't know.
LAGOMARSINO: I would add one thing in terms of the election.
The fact that the race is so close, even though we don't yet know who the victor
is and the fact that the Republicans won by such a narrow margin in Congress,
it will be tough for either of these candidates to get through their tax cut plan
or spending increase plan, which people were expecting could have been more stimulating
for the economy. So in terms of the Fed, that takes on a potential stimulative
force down the road.
GHARIB: What impact does all this have on the dollar? It's
held up pretty well, Sherry.
COOPER: Remarkably so. I mean wouldn't you think foreigners
would be very nervous about putting money into our country right now? I think
the dollar probably is going to soften and that's going to be further negative
activity for our bond and stock markets and that's bad for the consumer. The NASDAQ
is down 40 percent from its peak. People are not feeling as flush as they did
last Christmas.
LAGOMARSINO: And the Fed said in the minutes of its October
meeting that if the dollar were to possibly weaken, this would intensify their
concerns about inflation because the dollar's strength has really helped keep
a lid on inflation recently.
KAHN: And charts are definitely looking at a top in the
dollar right now.
GHARIB: All right, let's go back to technology. It was the
engine for our economic boom. It's been slowing down. Is the slowdown temporary
or is it longer term?
COOPER: Well, I think over the very long-term the technology
sector will continue to grow rapidly. But over the near term we're starving the
technology sector of what it needs most, and that's capital, cheap capital. The
IPO market is dead. The junk bond market is dead. And banks themselves are making
it tougher to borrow money. So we are going to see continued slowing.
GHARIB: So just to wrap it up, let's find out what the three
of you will be monitoring over the next couple of weeks. Michael, you start us
off.
KAHN: We're just going to be watching to see if we get any
kind of leadership in the stock market other than, say, utilities and real estate
investment trusts. We need to see something emerge as a leader before the rest
of the market can follow.
GHARIB: Deborah?
LAGOMARSINO: Retail sales to consumer, does the slowdown
continue? And number two, Greenspan speaks in early December. What does he have
to say about all this?
GHARIB: Sherry?
COOPER: I'm going to watch commodity prices. The softening
in commodity prices outside of energy foreshadowed the slowdown in the global
economy.
GHARIB: All right, thank you very much, Deborah and Michael
from Bridge, and our special guest, Sherry Cooper of Harris Bank. ]
COOPER: Thank you.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
11/20/00:Preparing For College-Part 1: Campus Studies
SUSIE GHARIB: The calendar says November, but if you have
children who are seniors in high school, now is the time to start thinking about
sending them to college next fall. Higher education is a good investment, but
it's expensive. Tonight we begin a special series of reports on preparing for
college. Diane Eastabrook kicks it off with a look at the academic factors to
consider.
DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT:
Grinnell College in central Iowa isn't much larger than a lot of high schools.
It has roughly 1,300 students, but Grinnell is often listed as one of the nation's
best liberal arts colleges. Here, students like Ben Morgan have the opportunity
to work one on one with professors on independent study projects.
BEN MORGAN, STUDENT: You almost feel like a lot of people
would have to go to a graduate setting to get this kind of like close attention
or training.
EASTABROOK: Academic experts say two hallmarks of a good
college are small class sizes and professors who actually teach undergraduates,
rather than spend full time on research. Grinnell has tried to incorporate both.
RUSSEL OSGOOD, PRESIDENT, GRINNELL COLLEGE: That's what
our stock in trade is. All of our introductory courses are 20 people, roughly,
or less. In a large research university you'll find introductory classes taught
by wonderful people that are 600, 900, 250, maybe 100 if you're lucky.
EASTABROOK: But some research universities do offer smaller
faculty led courses. Northwestern University, just outside of Chicago, is one
of them. With 16,000 full and part time students, Northwestern is considered one
of the top national universities. Unlike students at small liberal arts colleges,
Northwestern students can receive a more focused education.
REBECCA DIXON, ASSOCIATE PROVOST, NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY:
You have the great variety at a university of our size and you also have the advantage
to change your mind. If you started out in arts and sciences but you prefer to
switch to electrical engineering or switch to another field, then you have it
there. You don't necessarily have to change institution in order to find that
advantage.
EASTABROOK: While liberal arts colleges and universities
may differ in size and mission, the really good ones share the same qualities.
Here are some questions prospective students should ask. What is the class ranking
of high school students accepted? What is the dropout rate among freshmen? What
is the percentage of students who graduate? Does the school offer career counseling
throughout the student's tenure or only during his or her senior year? Loren Pope,
who has researched colleges for more than 35 years, says students sometimes offer
the best insight into a school.
LOREN POPE, DIRECTOR, COLLEGE PLACEMENT BUREAU: Go into
the cafeteria. Sit down at lunchtime at a table where six or eight kids are sitting
and for openers ask them what are the chief gripes around here? Why do people
leave? If you came back here five years from now, would you have good enough friends
on the faculty that you might have dinner or spend a night at a faculty member's
home?
EASTABROOK: Pope says perhaps the best way to judge a college
or university is by the kind of people it turns out, not by the kind of people
of people it takes in. The success students achieve upon graduation may ultimately
determine the true value of their education. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT, Grinnell, Iowa.
GHARIB: And if you'd like more information about selecting
a college, be sure to watch NBR's special Thanksgiving night program, How To Find
the Right College and Pay For It.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should
not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc.
11/20/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened broadly lower
today, partly because of that uncertainty over what the Florida Supreme Court
would decide about the vote recount. But the technology stocks were badly undermined
after the Morgan Stanley Brokerage cut its price target for Cisco (CSCO) stock
from 90 down to $75 per share, while downgrading Juniper Networks (JNPR) as well
as Redback Networks (RBAK). By 10:30 this morning, the Dow Industrial Average
was down 99 points, and the NASDAQ Index posted a 113 ¾-point loss. The market
continued to lose ground for the rest of the morning and through mid-session,
suffering from a buyers' boycott and further weakness in high-tech favorites,
like Oracle (ORCL) which fell over $4 on news its executive vice president, Gary
Bloom is leaving to become CEO of Veritas Software (VRTS). At 1:30 this afternoon,
the Dow was off 162 points; the NASDAQ Index was down nearly 156. As investors
focused on the proceedings in the Florida Supreme Court, the market showed little
further change for the rest of the session, and the Dow Industrial Average closed
with a loss of 167.22, that's 1.6 percent; now stands at 10,462.65. In today's
180-point trading range, the Dow closed down 167 points from the best level of
the session; only up 13 points from the low. The NASDAQ Composite tumbled 151.55
ending at 2875.64. In its 167-point trading range, the Composite settled only
15 points above its worst level of the session.
Big board volume down considerably from Friday at 953 3/4
million shares. No contest between up and down volume. About 400 million more
of the down variety.
The Dow Transport Index down nearly 21 1/2.
Utility Index lost only .89.
And the Closing Tick just mildly bearish at -179.
Standard & Poor's 500 off 25 1/10 points.
Just over a 15-point on the 100.
The MidCap 400 off 11.82.
Bridge Futures Price Index rose exactly one point.
New York Stock Exchange Composite off nearly 9 1/2.
6 2/3-point drop in the Value Line.
Russell2000 Small Cap off 12 1/3 points.
And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 down 298.61, or 2.4
percent.
The growing election anxiety led more investors into the
bond market today, especially after Lehman Brothers Brokerage recommended using
any cash on hand to buy quality debt securities. The market also benefited from
the continuing downward spiral in the stock market as buyers sought a safe haven
for their money.
As a result, tax-free and corporate issues closed with gains
of 1/8 to 1/4 point on average.
And the Treasury market also ended with moderate gains across
the board.
5-year notes up 4/32.
The Bellwether 10-year note up 8/32, bringing the yield
down to 5.67.
30-year bond up 11/32.
And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index up
almost 2 1/2 points.
Let's review that Dow Industrial Average, off 167 1/4 points
or 1.6 percent. Almost twice as many decliners as advancers. Only 68 new yearly
highs and 127 new lows.
Nortel Networks (NT) for the fifth consecutive session topped
the active list today on 23 1/4 million shares, up $1.19, a little rebound after
losing 66 percent of its value over the last six weeks. And after the close, NorTel
also said it's confident it will achieve fourth quarter revenue and earnings projections.
AT & T (T) down $0.69, a new low for the year.
GE (GE) lost $1.81.
Lucent Technologies (LU) down $0.25.
Citigroup, weak financials, down $2 a share.
America Online (AOL) dropped $2.47.
Texas Instruments (TXN) off $1.44. Lehman Brothers cut earnings
estimates on that stock.
Coca-Cola (KO), there you see it, down $4.88 on the talk
with Quaker Oats and also Salomon Smith Barney downgraded Coke's stock from "buy"
to just "outperform."
Compaq Computer (CPQ) lost $0.65.
And Tyco International (TYC) fell $1.88 even though Merrill
Lynch named it a focus one stock. It's just that kind of a market.
Agilent Technologies (A) down $2.75. But after the close,
fourth quarter earnings came in at $0.66, up from last year's $0.39, and $0.13
above the Street estimate. In after hand recounts trading, Agilent was as high
as $46.13 a share.
ALCATEL (ALA), the big French telecommunications company,
caught on the high tech downdraft, off $5.75.
Gateway (GTW) down $3.53. The Wit SoundView Brokerage downgraded
the stock from "buy" to just a "hold."
General Motors (GM) one of the major casualties in the Dow,
off $4.31. The company says its fourth quarter vehicle sales will drop four to
seven percent from last year. Alex Brown Brokerage cut fourth quarter earnings
estimates by $0.10, down to $1.65 a share.
Hanson PLC (HAN), the big international building materials
conglomerate, off $1.38. The company sees 2000 year profits below last year's.
And then Wellpoint Health (WLP) off $8 a share after the
Prudential Securities Brokerage downgraded it from "strong buy" to just
a "hold."
Old Kent Financial (OK), you heard about earlier, getting
a buyout bid that's worth about $34.32 in stock of Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
today. It's about .74 shares of Fifth Third.
And McMoran Exploration (MMR) up $1.10. The company announced
a natural gas discovery near Eugene Island, 25 miles off the Louisiana coast in
the Gulf of Mexico.
Teradyne (TER) up $3.06. It's going to buy back up to 10
million of its own shares.
Humana (HUM) the big percentage loser, off $2.63. Prudential
Securities cut this from a "strong buy" to just a "hold."
And Avnet (AVT) off $4.75. At the company's annual shareholders
meeting today in New York, CEO Roy Vallee guided second quarter earnings estimates
lower, from $0.85 to as low as $0.75, he said, if the current conditions continue.
It's a major semiconductor distributor.
And Celera Genomics Group (CRA) down $7, caught in that
biotech sell-off today.
NASDAQ trading, a loss of 151 1/2 points or five percent.
This Index is now down 43 percent from its March 10th record high at 5,048. Trading
volume down about 40 million shares from last Friday. And look at this, only 956
up, 2,946 on the down side.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) down $32.50 a share. Morgan Stanley,
as I mentioned, downgraded "strong buy" to just "outperform."
Microsoft (MSFT) losing $1.88.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) down $1.50.
And then Sun Micro (SUNW) off $7.69.
Oracle (ORCL) lost $4.06. Gary Bloom, Executive V.P. going
to Veritas (VRTS), as I mentioned.
JDS Uniphase (JDSU) fell $5.56.
SDL (SDLI) off $15.44.
A $0.38 drop in Intel (INTC), they introduced a new chip,
incidentally.
And Brocade Communications (BRCD) off $31.75.
Ariba (ARBA) off $8.69, 10th |