SUSIE GHARIB: Another yearly low for the NASDAQ. It is now at 2871, a level not seen since October 1999. The Dow was up more than 100 points in early trading, but by the close, rose only 32 points. It is now exactly two weeks since election day, and still no victor in the presidential race. That uncertainty, plus worries about earnings and the economy, are making it difficult for the market to hold onto any gains. Suzanne Pratt reports on the outlook.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Wall Street has been searching high and low for a stock market rally, but so far, none has materialized. With the presidential election still unresolved and corporate profits under growing pressure, experts say investor sentiment remains decidedly negative.

ALFRED GOLDMAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, A.G. EDWARDS: The number one concern and the reason for the stiff correction we've had, really since March of this year, has been concern that the Fed has stepped too aggressively on the brakes, and that we're not going to have a soft landing but a hard landing, and thus earnings per share are going to drop precipitously.

PRATT: That nasty negative sentiment has resulted in what could be the worst year for equities in a decade. All of the major Indexes are off sharply since January, although the tech-heavy NASDAQ has registered the steepest loss amid concerns about upcoming earnings. Still, most experts agree once the outcome of the election is known, stocks will probably stage a rally.

GOLDMAN: I think the market will be higher between now and into January, and then the mood surrounding the Fed's next step will probably take over. I think it will be a fairly broad advance, and then get more selective as we get into January.

PRATT: Others think any election-induced rally will be short-lived, and some worry that a continuous stream of revenue warnings will ultimately push tech stocks even lower.

RICHARD MCCABE, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, MERRILL LYNCH: My concern is that when that year-end or early new year rally is over, a lot of stocks, particularly those in the technology sector, may weaken again and have another phase of decline in late winter and spring, before a really strong final bottom is eventually reached.

PRATT: Just how long any post-election rally will last may depend a lot on timing. In just a few weeks, companies will begin issuing warnings about fourth-quarter earnings, and experts say we should look for a lot more downgrades. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/21/00: The Search For The Great Tech Stock Rebound

SUSIE GHARIB: So is Wall Street ever going to get that post election rally or even a year end rally? Joining me live now to answer those questions, Vince Farrell, Chief Investment Officer of the New York money management firm Spears Benzak Salomon and Farrell, and Josh Feinman, Chief Economist Deutsche Asset Management. Nice to have you gentlemen here with us. Vince, the question then investors all want to know is when are we going to get this rally, when are my tech stocks going to bounce back and you're telling me those are all the wrong questions to ask.

VINCE FARRELL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SPEARS, BENZAK, SALOMON & FARRELL: Those are the wrongs questions because you're wishing for something that may not be. You might have a year end rally. But I don't think it holds. You know, since the NASDAQ peaked early in the year, it's down 40 percent, and we've had 10 five-percent up days and each time we said oh, good, it's over. But it wasn't over. So I think you're really whistling in the dark to try to hope for one of, a big rally. I think individual stocks will bottom and we'll be OK.

GHARIB: One of the things, Josh, that I keep hearing from economists and from stock market strategists is that we have to start - the markets seem to be telling us that you've got to take seriously the possibility of a hard landing in the economy. Do you agree with that?

JOSHUA FEINMAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT: Well, those risks are growing. I mean, the economy is slowing down. It's slowing down because financial conditions have tightened and because oil prices are high and it's cutting into purchasing power. Now, my own hunch is that this is just going to lead to a moderation in the economy, not a real hard landing. But with oil prices staying high and with financial conditions continuing to deteriorate, the risks of something worse are growing.

GHARIB: All right, and some of those other things that could be worse, the other words we're hearing a lot: stagflation, slow growth with inflation - not a good combination - and recession.

FEINMAN: Yeah, well, the stagflation certainly isn't a good combination and the fact is underlying inflation is creeping up a little. We still have very, very tight labor markets. That could continue for a while, even as growth comes off the boil. And though the recession I don't see in the near term outlook, the risks of it are larger than they were a few months ago.

FARRELL: So, Susie, if you have those risks, it's going to be very hard for stocks to do significantly better because you have to clarify how real those risks are.

GHARIB: So what should investors be doing with their portfolios? I mean let's say you've got some tech stocks in there and you've got a, you know, a diversified portfolio. What do you do?

FARRELL: Well, if you have a diversified portfolio, you're probably OK. It's like having a diversified list of money managers, you have some growth, some value. You've got to live through some pain. If you own what you believe to be world class companies, Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Cisco (CSCO), et cetera et cetera .

GHARIB: Even though they're being cut in-half?

FARRELL: Even though they're all being cut in half. The fact is, they have been cut in half. They're where they are and I wouldn't abandon those. Now, you're still going to have the occasional Lucent (LU), that even though it gets cut in half, will get cut in half again. But if you own a diverse -

GHARIB: Do you buy these or do you just-now I'm not talking about Lucent particularly, but do you buy these stocks?

FARRELL: Not at these prices, no. I think you buy tech stocks, in my opinion, if you have a multiple on the tech stock that is about the same as a market multiple and where the growth rate is going to be above what you think the market will grow at, which might be hopefully nine or 10 percent. And that's a good combination with very little risk.

GHARIB: Let me get back to some of the other questions about the economy and the stock market. Let's say that the Federal Reserve does cut interest rates, which has been a lot of the speculation, some time early next year. Will that help the economy and will that help stock market?

FEINMAN: I think you need to be a little careful what you wish for if you're the stock market for a Fed rate cut, because you might get it. It's the circumstances -

GHARIB: Isn't that I good thing?

FEINMAN: Well, it would be, but under what circumstances would the Fed cut? They would likely cut only if they saw economic activity really starting to unravel and that, of course, wouldn't be so good for stocks. So, you know, a more moderate slowdown in the economy maybe doesn't get you Fed rate cuts but doesn't hit profits so hard might actually be a little better for the stock market.

GHARIB: Market reaction to that?

FARRELL: If you get a rate cut, the financial stocks will act very well because they always love rate cuts. I agree with Josh. The rest of the market, if the circumstances were that the economy was slowing so much, a lot of stocks would not do well. But I think the scenario that you paint either way is very good for financial stocks, which is our biggest position.

GHARIB: Real quickly, we just have 30 seconds. Any bright spot in everything that's going on right now in the market and the economy?

FEINMAN: I think there are still signs that the tech revolution, in terms of productivity gains, efficiency gains, still has further to defuse through the economy.

FARRELL: Maybe one of these guys won't get elected president.

GHARIB: All right, we'll leave it there. It's, you know, exactly two weeks from election day. We never got that post election rally, if ever.

FEINMAN: No end in sight.

GHARIB: Thank you so much.

BOTH: Thank you.

GHARIB: Nice talking to both of you. My guests tonight, Vince Farrell of Spears, Benzak, Salomon and Farrell, and Josh Feinman of Deutsche Asset Management.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/21/00: Next Stop...China For UPS

SUSIE GHARIB: A big win for UPS (UPS) tonight. United Parcel has tentatively won the majority of the coveted new U.S.-China air routes created by a bilateral aviation agreement. The company says the six weekly flights could add at least $100 million in revenues to the bottom line over the next year. Those flights are scheduled to begin next April. UPS Chairman Jim Kelly says it's welcome news.

JIM KELLY, CHAIRMAN & CEO, UPS: Well, it's going to be a great deal for our business. We're very excited about the announcement. We think the DOT certainly has recognized the role that express carriers play in global trade and we're looking forward to serving China and being the fourth carrier to have the rights to land there.

GHARIB: UPS wasn't the only winner. A few flights also went to United Airlines (UAL), Northwest Airlines (NWAC) and FedEx (FDX).

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/21/00: Preparing For College: Part 2: The Payment Plan

SUSIE GHARIB: College tuition and fees have almost doubled in the past decade. So it's not surprising that the size of financial aid packages is often a top criteria for students when they select a school. Nationally, about half of all students get some sort of aid. Tonight in the second part of our special series, Preparing For College, Erika Miller looks at some of the options.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: For many students, college is as much about bucks as it is about books.

CLAIRE FELDER, SOPHOMORE, BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY: I was worried, you know, if I was going to be able to pay for it, if I was going to get a scholarship or if I'd have to take out loans. And I didn't know if I wanted to place that burden on myself or my family.

ERROL BAKAL, SOPHOMORE, UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA: $35,000 a year for four years, it adds up. It's a big decision of how you're going to pay for it. Are you going to take out loans? I mean, money causes a lot of anxiety for a lot of people.

MILLER: Luckily for Claire, Errol and thousands of other students, there is a wide range of tuition assistance available, ranging from loans to grants to scholarships. About 70 percent of all financial aid comes from the government. One of the most common student aid programs is the Stafford loan, which is made to graduate and undergraduate students. If the family can demonstrate financial need, the government will subsidize the loan by paying the interest while the student is in school. Otherwise, the student will be liable for interest from day one. The loan rate is variable, but won't top 8 ¼ percent. Students with exceptional financial need may also be eligible for the government's Perkins loans, which have an interest rate of five percent. The maximum loan amount is $4,000 a year for undergraduates. Parents can also borrow money from the federal government under the PLUS loan program. Plus stands for Parent Loans for Undergraduate Students. The loans are unsubsidized. The interest rate fluctuates, but is capped at nine percent. The yearly borrowing limit is the total costs of college, including living expenses, minus other financial aid. The federal government also offers Pell grants for undergraduate study, which are not repaid. The awards are based on need and range from $400 to several thousand dollars a year. State governments have their own aid programs, as do most colleges.

DAVID CHARLOW, DIR. OF UNDERGRADUATE FINANCIAL AID, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: Typically, the schools that are the most expensive are also the schools that award the most financial aid. So families should try not to get that sticker shock and pursue financial aid to see what it would cost after being awarded financial aid.

MILLER: There are also thousands of scholarships available from private sponsors. Most are awarded based on some criteria like need or merit. One myth about financial aid is that the schools have a specific cutoff point for aid based on income or assets.

KAL CHANEY, PRESIDENT, CAMPUS CONSULTANTS: Some people have heard if you make $40,000, $50,000, $75,000, you can't get any aid. There are some families with incomes over $100,000, sometimes even $150,000, that do get aid. So its important that you don't assume you make too much, you have too much in assets and its totally hopeless.

MILLER: If you don't receive enough financial aid to be able to afford the college of your choice, you may be able to negotiate. Experts say it helps if you can show a better aid package from another school. Another strategy is to try and convince officials that they overlooked some expenses. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/21/00: Commentary: Presidential Budgeting Plans

SUSIE GHARIB: Whoever eventually makes it to the White House in January will have to deal with budgets for at least the next four years. Tonight's commentator has some thoughts on how the next president should handle them. Here's Charles Schultze, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

CHARLES SCHULTZE, COMMENTARY: Despite the bitterness of the current election fight, we may get a large bipartisan package of tax cuts and spending increases next year. Early in the year the Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office will issue new projections of the 10 year budget surplus. Their forecasts will start from the base of a higher than expected GDP for this year and the continued strong growth of productivity has raised the consensus estimate of the economy's growth potential. Accordingly, the forecasts of federal revenues will be boosted substantially. Even after subtracting the large spending increases and possibly a modest tax cut that will be enacted this year, the new president and Congress will be handed a surplus forecast larger than the sizable one they already anticipated. That will invite a budget compromise with big tax cuts for Republicans and spending increases for democrats. While the tax cut and the overall budget package would be larger under a President Bush, the budget surplus would be whittled way down even under a President Gore. But some time after the year 2020, rising Social Security benefits and soaring Medicare costs will begin to eat into the overall surpluses and ultimately convert them to big deficits. We should not squander those near term surpluses, but preserve most of them to retire debt, thereby strengthening the budget and the economy to meet the long-term challenges. I'm Charles Schultze.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




11/21/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: The stock market opened with a little technical rebound from yesterday's steep sell-off as the Dow rose 18 points at the outset of trading, while the NASDAQ Index bounced back 44 points. Those modest advances were clearly disappointing in the wake of yesterday's triple-digit closing losses, so the buying quickly faded. And by 10:30 this morning, the Dow fell to a two-point loss; the NASDAQ Index was up only 9 ½ points. The market turned very choppy after Lucent Technologies (LU) surfaced with more concerns about revenues, although some bargain buying did help to prevent a major sell-off. Halfway through the noon hour, the Dow managed to post nearly a 40-point gain; the NASDAQ Index was up 17 1/2 points. The market's upturn faltered slightly in afternoon trading as buyers simply seemed to lack conviction as evidenced by a persistently negative advance-decline ratio. The Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to salvage a closing gain of 31.85 points putting it at 10,494.50. In today's 154-point trading range, the Dow closed down 74 points from the best level of the session; up 79 points from the low of the day. The NASDAQ Composite came in with a loss of 4.19 at 2871.45. In its nearly 77-point trading range, the Composite Index settled 50 points below its best level of the day; up 27 points from its worst level of the day.

Big board volume moved above a billion shares, well above it, 1.18 billion. Nicely ahead of yesterday's pace. But about 43 million more shares of down volume than up volume.

The Dow Transport Index up 56 points.

Utility Index fell 7 1/10.

And the Closing Tick rather bullish at +491.

Standard & Poor's 500 up nearly 4 3/4 points.

3 2/3-point rise in the 100.

The MidCap 400 gained just over 1 3/4 points.

The Bridge Futures Price Index down .38.

New York Stock Exchange Composite edged up .89.

A loss of 1.88 in the Value Line Index.

Russell2000 Small Cap off nearly 3 1/2.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 hardly moved at all, but it was up 0.1 point.

The bond market edged slightly lower early today because safe haven buying was absent as the stock market headed higher. The report of a 15 percent rise in the U.S. September trade deficit to a record $34 1/4 billion had little negative impact because it suggested that Americans are spending more abroad than at home, and that could cool the U.S. economic growth and put the Fed in an easing mode. A slight drop in oil prices also helped tax-free and corporates close up about 1/8-point on average, and helped the Treasury market end on a fairly firm note.

5-year notes edging 1/32 higher.

A 4/32 gain in the 10-year note.

And the 30-year bond up 11/32 with the yield at 5.73 percent.

The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index up 3.86.

The Dow Industrial Average a slight winner today, up nearly 32 points, not to impressive after yesterday's steep fall, however. And there we see the persistently negative broader market. Declines outpaced advancers again, 75 new highs and 120 new lows for the year.

Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the active list on a heavy 41 1/2 million shares, down $3.38 after the company says due to a revenue recognition problem regarding $125 million of improperly recorded sales, fourth quarter earnings may be cut by $0.02 a share.

Nortel Networks (NT) bucking the overall trend, up $2.94. After the close yesterday, it was reported the company was confident it'll meet fourth quarter revenue and earnings projections and today First Boston Brokerage rated the stock a "strong buy."

Seagate Technology (SEG) down $7. It's being privatized by Veritas (VRTS) and the stock is very volatile during the process.

Citigroup down $0.25. Associates First Capital (AFS) shareholders approved Citicorp's takeover of that corporation.

AT & T (T) down $0.44.

LSI Logic (LSI) lost $5.81. Its CFO, Douglas Norby has resigned to become CFO of privately-held, Novalux.

America Online (AOL) down $4.09. Merrill Lynch made some cautious comments about the Internet group.

GE (GE) moving up $0.69.

Merrill Lynch (MER) itself down $1.50. Goldman Sachs removed Merrill Lynch stock from its private client "advisory list." It traded as low as $56.69 during the day.

And Medtronic (MDT), 10th in volume, was up $1.56.

Agilent Technologies (A) up $4. As we reported, after the close yesterday, the company in with fourth quarter earnings, $0.69, $0.13 above Street estimates, doing well today.

Boeing (BA) was the biggest point gainer in the Dow, up $3.06. First Boston issued a positive report on the whole defense group.

Deere & Company (DE) up $3.06. Fourth quarter earnings of $0.30, that's versus a loss of $0.13 a year ago, although those earnings were $0.09 below the Street estimate. But the company is upbeat on the 2001 outlook.

IBM (IBM) the biggest point loser in the Dow, off $4.75.

As was Omnicom Group (OMC). Omnicom downgraded by Morgan Stanley from "strong buy" to just "outperform."

And PepsiCo (PEP) moved up $1.50 on news the company plans to buy back up to $4 billion worth of its stock over the next three years.

Coca-Cola Enterprises (KO) up $2.44, one of the few good percentage gainers. The Alex Brown Brokerage began covering the stock with an "outperform" rating.

Buckeye Technology (BKI) the big loser percentage wise. It's in the cellulose business. The company sees second quarter earnings 10 to 15 percent below last year's $0.44 a share.

Royal Group Technologies (RYG), this is the Canadian building products firm, down $3.88. Fourth quarter earnings Canadian $0.57, down from $0.58 last year despite a 15 percent rise in revenues.

Dean Foods (DF) down $6.03. The company sees second quarter earnings of $0.65 to $0.68 a share, well down from the $0.82 Street estimate.

Neiman-Marcus Group (NMGA), the A stock down $6.44. The company sees a steeper than expected decline in its November sales.

And Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) losing $7.25. Merrill Lynch downgraded this stock from "accumulate" to just "near term neutral."

NASDAQ trading, a loss of 4.19 in the Index, volume just a touch above yesterday's pace. Fourteen stocks up for every 24 down.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) with a gain of $2.44 topped the active list.

Sun Micro (SUNW) up $3.50.

But Juniper Networks (JNPR) fell $8.31.

And Microsoft (MSFT) edging up $0.56.

Veritas Software (VRTS), which is in the process of taking Seagate (SEG) private, down $9.94.

Intel (INTC) up $1.50.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) gained $1.81.

Oracle (ORCL) down $0.88.

Brocade Communications (BRCD) up $1.06.

And then QUALCOMM (QCOM), 10th in NASDAQ volume, was up $2.88.

New Era of Networks (NEON), a major loser, down nearly 53 percent. Soundview Financial downgraded the stock from "strong buy" to just a "hold" due to softer than expected license sales.

Puma Technology (P