SUSIE GHARIB: A new yearly low for the NASDAQ: it's now at 2735, down 45 percent from its high. A steep sell-off in tech stocks pulled the NASDAQ down by 145 points. The losses on the Dow were less dramatic, off 38. Investors are beginning to worry about the possibility of a recession, and today's economic news reinforced those fears. Durable goods orders fell 5 1/2 percent in October, more than double what was expected, and a big reversal from September's gain of 2.4 percent. But economists put the news in perspective.

WILLIAM DUDLEY, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, GOLDMAN SACHS: It's one month, and if you took the headline number you know, at face value, 5.5 percent decline, you'd be pretty darn nervous. I don't think the report you know, tells you that the economy is collapsing; but it's just another building block you know, in the wall, saying, hey, this economy has slowed down a lot over the last few months.

GHARIB: Adding to the anxiety about the economy: new evidence that consumers are not as optimistic. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 133 1/2 , its lowest point since October of 1999. Economists were looking for that Index to be up to 138. The report showed that while consumers felt good about current economic conditions, they were becoming more nervous about the future outlook for the economy.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/28/00: Should The Next President Be Active In The Economy Or Just Sit On The Sidelines?

PAUL KANGAS: Dealing with those economic jitters will be one of the next president's top challenges. Slower growth may tempt the new occupant of the Oval Office to take strong action. But as Darren Gersh reports, economists say, whoever wins the White House may be better off waiting and watching for a while.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: For the last four years, the economy has been zipping along like this, growing at 4 or 5 percent, "speeding," some would say. But for the next few years, economists predict growth will feel more like this: slower, and from the Federal Reserve's point of view, safer, with less risk of inflation. But compared to the recent past, budget expert, Rudolph Penner says, the economy will feel sluggish, creating a challenge for the next president.

RUDOLPH PENNER, BUDGET ANALYST, URBAN INSTITUTE: It will be a lot lower than what we've experienced in the last four years. So even though it is a goal of the Fed to slow things down, I'm afraid the next president will probably be criticized for it.

GERSH: The consensus forecast calls for growth of around 3 percent next year. But even at that rate, economists say unemployment and inflation are likely to creep higher. So the next president may be tempted to buy some economic insurance, stimulating the economy with more spending or large tax cuts. But that might be a mistake. The best course, some analysts say, for the next president, may be, to do nothing.

MICHAEL PRELL, FMR. FEDERAL RESERVE ECONOMIST: I think we've seen already evidence that inflationary pressures are present, and I think those pressures need to be relieved, lest we run into a more unstable economic situation down the road.

GERSH: But some economists already fear the Federal Reserve has overshot, and is in danger of forcing the economy into a recession. Should that happen, the next president may want to move quickly.

PENNER: I think then, there will be a very strong justification for cutting taxes. After all, our fiscal situation is so good right now with huge surpluses, we can easily afford a tax cut if we need one.

GERSH: The next president will certainly have plenty of money to do whatever he wants. Next January, the Congressional budget office is expected to raise its estimate of the budget surplus yet again, by hundreds of billions of dollars. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/28/00: Strategies To Survive Economy Uncertainty

SUSIE GHARIB: Clearly this is a gut wrenching time for investors. They are facing the possibility of the first down year for the Dow in a decade. What moves should investors be taking right now? Joining me to answer that question is Ned Riley, Chief Investment Strategist of State Street Global Advisers and he joins us live from Boston. Nice to see you, Ned. We've got lots to talk about.

NED RILEY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS: Good evening, Susie.

GHARIB: Well, you know, more and more we are hearing that the economy is headed for serious downturn, some people are saying maybe even a recession. How should investors be factoring that into their investment strategies?

RILEY: Well, that's a great question, Susie, and I think one of the answers to that is simply try to avoid some of the Wall Street noise because unfortunately there is always a perfect inverse correlation between what Wall Street is saying and what actually happens. As we saw last year, there was tremendous exuberance in the market and most of the people were buying stocks and they were buying them and inflating them to very high levels. This year, and particularly this period of time, we're in what I call a capitulation stage, which is the antithesis of last year, and Wall Street now is giving up the ghost in terms of the economy, profits and the technology sector in general. So for the average investor I would say look at your overall asset allocation strategy make sure you're well diversified in your portfolio. A lot of people got caught with just holding technology stocks and they should look at other sectors like health care, financial services, consumer non-durables. They should also not to try to time the market, Susie. A lot of people think that there are geniuses in Wall Street that can time the bottoms and tops. There is no such thing as a genius that can really call that bottom or top.

GHARIB: I see. All right, you were telling me, let's talk about asset allocations. You were telling me that for your portfolios you pretty much haven't changed your asset allocations -- 60 percent in stocks, 30 percent in bonds and the rest of it in cash. Now, don't you think, though, that given the uncertainty about the direction of this economy, even if you're not talking recession, that maybe investors should sell their losing stocks and take the tax losses, raise their cash levels a little bit and just sit it out and see what's going to happen?

RILEY: Well, it's a great question and I would answer it this way, by saying everybody's got to make their own individual decisions. This is a good opportunity to try to look at gains in your portfolio and maybe jettison those stocks that don't have great fundamentals and kind of offset the gains. Secondarily, I'd recommend that people look at horizons longer than maybe the next three to six months. They should be making their decisions for the next three to five years. But the most important thing, Susie, I think, is to make sure people how much risk they have in their portfolio. This may be a great opportunity to actually increase exposure to those areas that people hadn't been invested in before.

GHARIB: Like-

RILEY: -- like technology.

GHARIB: All right, like tech-all right, are you buying technology right now?

RILEY: I'm looking at some stocks right now that probably nobody would have considered-well, I wouldn't have considered three or six months ago.

GHARIB: Like what?

RILEY: Well, I think some of the box manufacturers, the Dell Computers (DELL) of the world. I think if you take a look at it a Dell as an example, here's a company that's finally selling at a multiple that's below the S&P 500. It has a growth in earnings per share projected of about 20 to 25 percent and it was a darling and now everybody on Wall Street really doesn't like the stock.

GHARIB: Ned, what else do you like among the tech stocks because we see a lot of these bargains but then as cheap as they are, they keep going lower.

RILEY: Well, they go lower, but there's the old saying you must average down sometime in a market and not try to time that bottom. I think some of the software manufacturers, the leaders like a Microsoft (MSFT) looks pretty good today. I would also recommend that people look at some of the router companies, the infrastructure builders, what I call the pick and shovel manufacturers not necessarily the deliverers of the product themselves. But remember to stay diversified.

GHARIB: OK.

RILEY: Health care is another group I like, too.

GHARIB: All right, name one or two there that you like.

RILEY: Well, the health care stocks, I like Merck (MRK). I like Pfizer (PFE). I like J&J (JNJ). I also like an Irish drug company called Elan (ELN). But I always say stay diversified no matter what sector you're invested in.

GHARIB: OK. All right, thank you very much. You've given us a lot to think about. I said we had a lot to talk about.

RILEY: Thank you, Susie.

GHARIB: We've been speaking with Ned Riley of State Street Global Advisors.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/28/00: Investing Overseas May Put Your Finances In Troubled Waters

SUSIE GHARIB: Not only were U.S. socks hit hard today, so were the financial markets overseas. In fact, many world markets are posting big declines for the year. But American investors are still putting their money in international mutual funds. As Erika Miller explains, fund managers still see good investment opportunities outside the U.S.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It's been a rough year for investors in U.S. stocks, but it's been even rougher for those who put their money overseas. While the average U.S. stock mutual fund is down about five percent this year, non-U.S. equity funds have slipped 15 percent. But that under performance hasn't stopped money from flowing into mutual funds investing overseas. Americans have poured almost $60 billion in new money into foreign funds this year compared to less than $10 billion last year. Experts attribute much of the interest to the success of international investing last year. In 1999, the average foreign fund returned 48 percent, double the performance of the average domestic stock fund. Experts say another reason more Americans are investing abroad is the NASDAQ's poor performance, as investors look to put money elsewhere. But some fund managers still predict overseas investing will ultimately pay off.

JEFFREY RUSSELL, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SMITH BARNEY INTERNATIONAL GROWTH FUND: I think now is an excellent time for investors to be considering an overseas investment. The foreign markets have been especially weak this year combined with weak foreign currencies and as a result international stocks priced in dollars have been down quite significantly this year.

MILLER: As for where to look for opportunities, many pros still like Europe, even though the weak Euro has made shares there less attractive. They say the region's economy is undergoing dramatic transformation, which will ultimately help profits.

RUSSELL: In Europe, we clearly see a movement towards corporate restructuring and corporate governance much more in line with the successful recasting that the U.S. has gone through in the last 10 to 15 years.

MILLER: But analysts warn it won't necessarily be smooth sailing overseas. For example, if the price of oil continues to rise, it could accelerate inflation. That risk is especially true for Japan, which is trying to keep its fragile economic recovery on course. But experts say Japanese shares are cheap and any international portfolio should have some exposure there.

JEFFREY MOLITOR, PORTFOLIO REVIEW DIRECTOR, VANGUARD GROUP: Japan is one market where it's, there's a very sharp workforce, there are great companies there and they've shown a great ability to export terrific products around world.

MILLER: Just how well international markets perform in the coming year is also tied to stock market returns here in the U.S. Money managers say if the U.S. economy falters, stock markets around the world are likely to suffer. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



11/28/00: Commentary: The Sport Of Shopping

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator suggests instead of wishing people a happy holiday this season, you might encourage them to shop till they drop. Here's Todd Buchholz, author of "Market Shock," to explain.

TODD BUCHHOLZ, COMMENTARY: I was in Italy last week for Thanksgiving. When talk turned away from the U.S. election, it turned to sports, and in Europe, soccer is king. What is our national sport, my host wondered? Baseball? After all, Babe Ruth's records are falling. How about golf, riding the back of tiger Woods? No, I reported. Our national sport is shopping. Every weekend American families pile into the minivan for destination shopping, you know, those outlet malls that sprung up outside of every town in America offering designer labels for less. In Virginia, buses of shopping tourists stream down Route 95 to a place called Potomac Mills, one of the state's most popular tourist attractions, drawing in nearly as many visitors as historic Williamsburg. It's fashionable, of course, for pundits to sneer at fashion shopping, to condemn consumerism as wasteful, self-indulgent, shallow. Surely the Pilgrims, dressed for Thanksgiving in black suits and buckled hats, didn't waste money worrying about spring fashions. And yet, hordes of shoppers may very well save us from a potential recession in the months ahead. With the stock market pummeled since election day and businesses warning of slowing profits, consumers will determine whether the U.S. economy picks up again or stumbles towards an economic slump. And that's why, as we head into the holiday season, give at least two cheers to the shoppers, the Santas and the revelers, as they wait in line to wrap boxes and tie ribbons, for if they sit this year out, we won't have a very happy new year. I'm Todd Buchholz.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.  The program is transcribed by FDCH. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc., Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




11/28/2000: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street's blue chip stocks opened modestly higher today, partly because that larger than expected decline in October durable goods orders, coupled with that drop in consumer confidence, boosted hopes that such signs of a slowing economy might prompt the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy. At 10:00 this morning then, the Dow Industrial Average posted a 37-point gain. The NASDAQ Index, however, was moving to the downside again, on concern that a slowing economy would put a sizable dent in tech company earnings. So by 10:30 a.m., the Composite Index was down nearly 41 points. Downside pressures intensified on the NASDAQ market for the rest of the morning, as sellers continued to wring out the excesses in many of the high price earnings issues in the high-tech sector, and this acted as a drag on the blue chips as well. Halfway through the noon hour, the Dow was down 10 1/4 points, but the NASDAQ Index was down 101 1/2 points. This same pattern - where the weak tech sector undermined the blue chips - prevailed throughout the rest of the trading session. So the Dow Industrial Average ended with a modest loss of 38.49 at 10,507.58. And in today's 124-point trading range, the Industrial Average closed down 106 points from the best level of the session. The NASDAQ Composite continued to deteriorate, closing down 145.51 points at 2734.98. In its 157-point trading range, the Composite Index settled just a fraction above its absolutely worst level of the day.

Big board volume moved above a billion shares, well up from yesterday's pace. About a 4 to 3 margin of down volume over up volume.

The Dow Transport Index down 28 1/3 points.

But the Utility Index had a good day, rising 3.61.

The Closing Tick neutral, at +14.

Standard & Poor's 500 down nearly 13 points.

The 100 lost 6 1/3.

MidCap 400 off 12.16.

Bridge Futures Price Index down 1.61.

New York Stock Exchange Composite off a little over 2 1/2.

Nearly an 8-point drop on the Value Line Index.

The Russell2000 Small Cap Index off 12 2/3 points.

And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 off 196 1/4 points.

The bond market had several factors going its way today, including those declines in durable goods orders and consumer confidence, which made the case for the Federal Reserve easing interest rates more probable. Another plus was over a $1 per barrel drop in New York January oil futures. Add to that a fair amount of safe-haven buying prompted by the nasty downturn in the NASDAQ market, and it was no surprise to see tax-free and corporate issues end with 1/8 to ¼ point gains. While the Treasury market did even better than that.

The 5-year notes moving up 8/32.

The Bellwether 10-year note up 10/32, bringing the yield down to 5.59 percent.

And the 30-year bond rose 9/32.

The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index up 4.44.

The blue chips held up fairly well considering what happened on the NASDAQ market today, down 32 1/2 on the Dow. But the broader market definitely lower. For every 11 stocks on the up side, 16 on the down side. Only 95 new highs for the year, 107 new lows.

Lucent Technologies (LU) for the fifth consecutive trading session topped the active list today on nearly 21 million shares, down $0.88. That is a new yearly low.

Compaq Computer (CPQ) fell $1.71. Salomon Smith Barney made some bearish comments on the personal computer sector. But Compaq said it's comfortable with its inventory levels.

AT & T (T) down $0.19. A new president, as you just heard, David Dorman.

General Electric (GE) edged up $0.69.

Chase Manhattan (CMB) down $1.38. Salomon Smith Barney cut fourth quarter and year 2001 estimates on Chase but Alex Brown says this weakness is a buying opportunity in the stock.

Citigroup up $0.19.

Texas Instruments (TXN), the weak high tech sector, down $3.75.

America Online (AOL) dropped $3.41. The Federal Trade Commission today delayed for the second time its decision on whether or not to block AOL's proposed buyout of Time Warner (TWX).

Nortel Networks (NT) dropped $2.13.

And Nokia (NOK) was tenth in volume, down $1.69.

Calpine (CPN) moved up $1.44. The stock will be added to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after the close of trading this Thursday.

Guidant (GDT) moved up $2.81. The ABN AMRO Brokerage upgraded the stock from "hold" to "buy."

Intimate Brands (IBI) losing $1.50. Bank America downgraded the stock from "buy" to just a "market perform" rating.

Lehman Brothers (LEH) moved up $1.19 after Goldman Sachs upgraded it from a "market performer" to a "market outperformer."

And Quaker Oats (OAT) coming alive, up $3.44 after renewed takeover speculation after the company was left at the altar by both Coca Cola (KO) and Danone (DA). But some think there are other suitors out there, especially because Quaker Oats' Gatorade sales have been so brisk.

And then Triton Energy (OIL) up $1.19. The company says oil production has begun at its Ceiba Field in Equatorial Guinea.

Veritas (VTS), one of the biggest percentage gainers of the day, up $4.44. First quarter earnings turnaround, earnings of $0.18 versus a loss of $0.02 in the same period last year. Revenues up a massive 62 percent. Incidentally, those earnings were $0.03 better than the Street estimated.

M&T Bank (MTB) moved up $5.13. This stock was added to the Standard & Poor's Midcap 400 Index after the close of trading today. So index fund buyers helped the stock.

AnnTaylor Stores (ANN) one of the biggest percentage losers, down $7.88. The Robertson Stephenson Brokerage downgraded the stock from "buy" to just "long-term attractive" and also cut fourth quarter earnings estimates.

Another retailer doing poorly, Pier 1 Imports (PIR) lost $2. The company's November same sales were up - same-store sales were up seven percent but the Robertson Stephens Brokerage here again said that's not as good as expected.

Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) down $5.38.

And KEMET (KEM) down $4.56. Both stocks were downgraded from "buy" to just "near term neutral" by the Merrill Lynch Brokerage.

The NASDAQ trading, a loss of 145 1/2 points, a new low for the year, as you heard. Trading volume moved up on the sell-off, 10 stocks higher for every 28 lower.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $3.69.

Cisco (CSCO) down just $0.25.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) fell well over $17 a share.

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) dropping nearly $7.

Intel (INTC) off $1.91, fifth in volume.

PMC Sierra (PMCS) dropped $5.81. Lehman Brothers made some cautious comments about that company. Broadcom (BRCM) off another $12.50. It dropped $19.50 yesterday when Salomon Smith Barney lowered its price target from $300 to $200 a share and today Broadcom also said it's going to buy privately-held VisionTech for eight million Broadcom shares.

Brocade Communications (BRCD) down $28 a share.

JDS Uniphase (JDSU) dropped just $1.97.

CIENA (CIEN) off $13.44.

Catapult Communications (CATT) up $2.31. The