SUSIE GHARIB: Wall Street struggled today, but investors were much calmer. Stocks bounced between positive and negative territory after yesterday's stinging sell-off. By the closing bell, the Dow was off 17 points, after a gain of about 100 points earlier in the day. Still, today's close is the lowest since December 1998. The Nasdaq fell 24 points. Erika Miller gets the forecast from some Wall Street pros.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Wall Street showed encouraging signs of stability despite a small late day sell-off. In fact, instead of being depressed, many market strategists were relieved that the decline wasn't deeper.

MARY FARRELL, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, UBS PAINE WEBBER: I think the message in today's trading is that it's much more rational trading. Yesterday we had the emotional trading, the panic selling at the open. But I think investors have had time to deal with some of the more rational facts.

MILLER: In another reassuring sign, trading volume returned to more normal levels after a record breaking session yesterday. Market strategists also found some comfort in the comeback of airline and retail stocks, sectors which were hit hard yesterday. But there were still plenty of industries registering deep losses. Health care, semiconductor and oil exploration stocks were among the biggest decliners and Wall Street strategist warn its still too early to say the market has bottomed.

FARRELL: I think it's very difficult to predict the future because there are so many things we don't know. We don't know what the U.S. response is going to be. That, in turn, will elicit another response.

MILLER: In addition to political unknowns, investors must grapple with economic uncertainty. Before the attack, many hoped the market would start to rally by the end of the year in anticipation of economic recovery in the first quarter of next year. Now experts say that looks increasingly unlikely. But many are still encouraging long-term investors to begin putting money back into stocks, especially in defensive areas.

PHIL DOW, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, DAIN RASCHER WESSELS: I think this is a great time for people to commit with confidence. I think the most attractive area right now is health care, principally leading with the pharmaceuticals then the medical device companies. Additionally, you want to look for other sectors where you might see strong demand and our guess is that companies like Comcast in the cable area are good buys and that people pay their cable bills on time. So we think that's probably a good one.

MILLER: Many investors are relieved that heavy market selling did not continue today. But analysts warn that volatility is likely to pick up as the rattled market reacts to any news on the economic, political or military fronts. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/18/01: The Government Prepares To Offer Financial Aid To The Transportation Industry

SUSIE GHARIB: Well, airline stocks recovered slightly today after yesterday's sharp sell-off. The Transportation Department said it was preparing a federal aid package for financially strapped carriers. The package could be cleared for takeoff as early as next week. Quinn O'Toole takes a closer look at the rescue package.

QUINN O'TOOLE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: About 80 percent of the planes are back in the air but the industry's problems are far from over.

LEO MULLIN, CEO, DELTA AIRLINES: We are in very urgent need of a financial infusion very, very quickly.

O'TOOLE: Airline executives made the rounds in Washington today hat in hand, looking for as much as $24 billion in assistance from the government.

MULLIN: Wherein we continue to put forward the strength of the airline industry such that it does not become a major economic casualty of the war.

O'TOOLE: And it is a dire situation. Total traffic has fallen by almost half. Industry revenue this month is expected to be off as much as 60 percent and more than 40 percent for the fourth quarter. Carriers have slashed schedules and laid off more than 26,000 workers. After hearing the industry's plea, Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta said there is no doubt the government will help.

NORMAN MINETA, TRANSPORTATION SECRETARY: To the extent that what happened on Tuesday has imposed a direct impact on the airlines, I think there is some recognition that at least from that perspective they've got to be made whole.

O'TOOLE: Administration, industry and congressional leaders are working out the specifics of an aid package. Analysts say it could include billions in government grants and loan guarantees to keep the airlines out of bankruptcy, some limit on liability for the damage to the World Trade Center building itself and an anti-trust exemption to allow airlines to talk to each other about scheduling and reconfiguring the system. Most airline stocks rose today, but analysts say even with help from the Feds, the industry will need a while to get back on its feet.

RAYMOND NEIDL, AIRLINE ANALYST, ABN AMRO: We've got to see what the trends are for people coming back. Right now the traveling public, not only in the U.S., but worldwide, is in a traumatic state and while they're in that state, it's going to be hard luring them back.

O'TOOLE: Industry and government leaders agree improving security is key to getting travelers back in the air. The industry wants the government to pick up that job and pick up the tab. Quinn O'Toole, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/18/01: The Market Forecast From Money Manager Mike Holland of Holland & Company

SUSIE GHARIB: Our guest tonight is optimistic about the outlook on the market. I spoke with money manager Mike Holland of Holland & Company early in the trading day. I began by asking him is the worst over?

MIKE HOLLAND, CHAIRMAN, HOLLAND & COMPANY: In a word, yes. Yesterday was the opportunity for the market to become unglued or not to work. In each case, in the first case of being unglued, there was all the sellers from overseas and nervous people here and people who legitimately had reason to sell for the previous four days and couldn't. The market handled that extremely well. Far more important to the marketplace was the fact that the market itself worked, thus instilling further confidence. Today, incredibly, the market this morning reversed the losses and went up two days into a recovery from a war zone experience.

GHARIB: Mike, do you think, then, that we have seen the capitulation that everybody has been talking about?

HOLLAND: Susie, that's a wonderful question and I'll tell you why it's one that people who have been in the business as long as I have, which is a long time, or longer who have been very successful have said to me they thought, we're going to say this in a word, that this was the bottom.

GHARIB: So you're-

HOLLAND: These people are too smart, by the way, to say of course, of course, of course. But these are very smart people who don't say things like that loosely.

GHARIB: But we have to talk about the economy a little bit here, too.

HOLLAND: Of course.

GHARIB: You're positive about the outlook for the markets, but there are so many economists who are saying we are in the midst of a recession now.

HOLLAND: This isn't, once again, the market takes in all of the factors all of the time. We have been in a recession. Jack Welch referred to it a year ago. This is no surprise. Eighteen months into a bear market and one year into a recession, some people at Jack Welch would opine. Having said that, we now have massive global financial stimulus. We have central banks led by the Federal Reserve here putting inordinate amounts of capital into the system, lowering interest rates dramatically. In addition, we've got fiscal stimulus. We are just beginning to see $40 billions of dollars. Many more billions are coming in.

GHARIB: I was talking to a market strategist who was saying the outlook for the market has less to do now with how the economy does or corporate earnings-

HOLLAND: Right.

GHARIB: -- and more to do with how the U.S. government responds to these terrorist attacks and how well they do or how poorly they respond.

HOLLAND: Precisely.

GHARIB: What do you think?

HOLLAND: I couldn't agree more and, in fact, one of the reasons the market went up today and did so well as it did yesterday was because the early indications-once again, the market focuses very quickly on what's going on-the early indications are the team that's in Washington is superbly handling what's going on. The team in New York has superbly handled the financial situation. The political and military situation, it looks in the early stages here that they're doing it all correctly.

GHARIB: I know you were in the market doing some buying and you've been buying AIG (AIG). Tell us what your thinking is there.

HOLLAND: This is, I am not doing things simply out of patriotism. I, like many other people in the marketplace, have been here forever, have said this probably was something that would occur near a bottom having had it occurred. And, in fact, prices when they went down the way they did yesterday, those of us who have been in the market a long time said the first thing for everyone who's listening, no one should panic. Do nothing out of panic, buy or sell. Do it out of a long-term investment program and so on. There were prices that were received yesterday and today, there were prices that I think are quite attractive. Could they go lower? Of course, and if they did, I'd buy more. But they're at levels, as Warren Buffett and Jack Welch said over the weekend, that when you see them at these levels, you should take advantage of it.

GHARIB: Mike, thank you very much for talking to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

HOLLAND: Thank you.

GHARIB: And we've been speaking with Mike Holland of Holland & Company.

09/18/01: The Insurance Industry Is Facing Big Losses Following The Attack

SUSIE GHARIB: It was another tough day for the insurance industry. The stocks of many insurers ended the day in negative territory. Those companies are beginning to pay out claims stemming from last week's terrorist attacks. But as Diane Eastabrook reports, it may take them several months to finish making payments.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The worst terrorist attack in history could cost the insurance industry upwards of $30 billion, double the losses it suffered from Hurricane Andrew. On the property/casualty side, Chubb (CB) is estimating its after tax losses at $200 million. CNA (CNA) is estimating $230 million in losses. Hartford Financial Group (HIG) says its losses will be near $450 million. And AIG (AIG) predicts its losses could top a half billion dollars. On the reinsurance side, loss estimates range from $400 million for G.E. Capital to $800 million for Swiss Re (SWCEY.OB) and more than $1 billion for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK). Insurance analyst Greg Peters says even though the insurance industry is sitting on $350 billion in cash reserves, additional catastrophes could threaten its financial stability.

GREG PETERS, INSURANCE ANALYST, RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES: What happens is that, you know, as these losses get reported and they start to erode at the capital base, the insurance industry, in order to remain financially strong and financially sound, you know, must make sure that it has enough capital sitting on its books in order to support, you know, the losses as they occur.

EASTABROOK: Credit rating Company Fitch says claims for business interruption and worker's compensation are still difficult to estimate. That is part of the reason the company may downgrade the credit ratings of some insurers later in the week. But Fitch stresses the industry overall remains strong.

JOHN BAREISS, INSURANCE DIRECTOR, FITCH: I think what we're taking a look at is that this will be an event from a perspective of the balance sheet, but it's not something where we are commenting on management competence or that they should not have had this type of exposure.

EASTABROOK: Analysts say last week's catastrophic events should allow insurance companies to reprice their products across-the-board and those higher premiums should result in better profits for insurers down the road. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/18/01: Commentary: Will The Economy Become A Casualty Of The War On Terrorism

PAUL KANGAS: Tonight's commentator has a few thoughts about America's new war on terrorism and its impact on the economy. Here's Charles Schultze, Senior Fellow of the Economic Study Program at the Brookings Institution.

CHARLES SCHULTZE, COMMENTARY: There have been many forecasts of immediate economic consequences from last week's terror attack. But let's think about longer-term effects. We've been told we face a long war. It won't be like the major wars of the past century, with all the action occurring far from home. The enemies who have just attacked us are smart, educated people whose hate of America and fanatic religious convictions drive them to plan months or years ahead for their own suicides in schemes to damage us. Don't assume we've seen the last of cleverly planned strikes. And if in the process of the war we attack several Middle East countries, the number of terrorists will multiply. Should the conflict produce a sustained interruption of oil supplies, the economic consequences could be severe. But unless they acquire weapons of mass destruction, future attacks by terrorists, while possibly terrible in terms of human trauma, local damage and disruptions to a few industries, are unlikely to do significant harm to the massive and flexible American economy. Consumers and investors may pull in their horns after this first attack, but over time they will go about their normal activities at work and at home. In 1944, the British continued about their work while rocket bombs were randomly destroying homes and businesses every day. Americans will be no less resolute. I'm Charles Schultze.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

09/18/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened modestly higher in a technical rebound from yesterday's massive sell-off. But after the Dow Industrial Average rose just 40 points and the Nasdaq Index gained only 10 points at the outset of trading, buyers were clearly disappointed and stepped away, sending the Dow to a 46 point loss just before 10:00 a.m., when the Nasdaq Index was down 2 points. The market's relatively narrow movement early on and the absence of any heavy follow through selling from yesterday gradually built up enough bullish confidence to get a mid-morning rally under way, with the hard hit airline stocks leading the upturn on the government's promise of financial aid. Other stocks that plunged yesterday, like the insurance and leisure related issues, joined in the upturn. By 1:30 this afternoon, the Industrial Average was sporting nearly a 100, or 1.1 percent gain. And the Nasdaq Index was up 16 points, or 1 percent. The rally was plagued by a decidedly negative 19 to 13 decline over advance ratio and volume was active but not awe inspiring. As a result, the market faded throughout the rest of the day and the Dow Jones industrial average stair stepped down to close with a loss of 17.30 points at 8903.40.

The Nasdaq Index came in with a loss of 24.47, ending at 1555.08.

Big board volume simmered down a lot from yesterday's record 2.36 billion down to 1.67 billion today and a lot more down volume than up volume, however.

The Dow Transport Index off over 54 1/2 points. It dropped over 400 yesterday.

The Utility Index off exactly 2 3/4 points.

But the Closing Tick was neutral, +36.

The Standard & Poor's 500 off just over 6 points.

A little over a 2 1/4 point drop on the S&P 100.

The 400 off just over 7 1/4 points.

And the Bridge Futures Price Index down 2.83.

And now we see a loss of 3 2/3 in the New York Composite.

The Value Line off just over 5 1/2.

The Russell 2000 Small Cap off just over 6 points.

And now the broadly based Wilshire 5000 off 74 1/3 points.

Bond prices showed some firmness early today in reaction to the report that August consumer prices rose a mere 1/10 percent, as lower gasoline, tobacco and air fare prices offset higher medical costs. This market began to sell off, however, on growing concern about mounting government costs due to the attack on America, which could heat up inflation. Some investors may also be selling bonds these days to switch into stocks, which have fallen sharply. In any case, Tax Free and Corporates lost 3/8 to 5/8 of a point, on average.

And the Treasury Market was down across-the-board.

The Five Year Notes losing 6/32.

The Ten Year Notes down 27/32.

And the 30 Year Bond down 1 29/32.

Even though we didn't see a sharp rebound following yesterday's massive sell-off, it was heartening to see some stability return to the market, the Dow off only 17.30 after being up 100 at mid session. The broader market lower by a 19 to 12 margin. As you see, that was certainly disappointing, but not that bad. 29 new yearly highs as against 350 lows. That's not much of a surprise.

GE (GE) for the second day running topped the active list, today on 35 million shares, down another $1.30. The stock dropped $4.20 yesterday after the company said its reinsurance unit's loses will cut third quarter earnings by $0.04 a share down to $0.33.

EMC (EMC) fell $0.85.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) moved up $0.45. The Kauffman Brothers Brokerage upgraded its rating on AOL from "accumulate" to "buy."

Disney (DIS) down another $0.85 after dropping $4.33 yesterday.

American Express (AXP) fell $2.87. After the market closed yesterday, AXP warned its third quarter earnings will fall below the $0.38 per share Wall Street estimate.

Southwest Air (LUV) down $0.01. It was down sharply yesterday.

Pepsico (PEP), sort of a save haven play, up $1.60.

Nokia (NOK) down $0.22. It gained $1.69 yesterday.

Compaq Computer (CPQ) down $0.23 and tenth in volume.

Lucent Technologies (LU) moving up $0.19.

Best Buy (BBY) gained $1.37. The company reported second quarter earnings, $0.39, a $0.01 above the Street estimate and well up from last year's $0.33. Same store sales in the period up 2.8 percent. The company is estimating a two percent rise in the third quarter same store sales.

Golden West Financial (GDW) gained $1.32 after announcing it'll buy back up to 10 percent of its outstanding shares. And the Jeffries Brokerage upgraded it from "accumulate" to "buy."

Haliburton (HAL) down $2.15. J.P. Morgan downgraded it from "long-term buy" to just a "market performer."

IBM up $3.06, the best point gainer in the Dow.

Lowes Companies gained $0.53. At one stage it was as high as $31.50 today. That was just after Alex Brown Brokerage upgraded it from "buy" to a "strong buy."

And Wal-Mart (WMT) doing well, with a gain of $1.35. A.G. Edwards upgraded it from "hold" to "accumulate."

AMR rebounding $2. Of course, the stock plunged 39 percent, or $11.70, yesterday. But at least a decent rebound.

And Delta Airlines (DAL), same story. Delta was down 44 percent yesterday. It dropped $16.61 then and rebounding $2.28.

AutoZone (AZO) had a good day, rising $4.01. The company says it's estimating its fourth quarter earnings will come in around $1.07 a share, $0.07 above the Street estimate, and sales will be up about 10 percent.

Salton (SFP), one of the big losers. This company manufactures George Foreman electric grills and products like that. First Union today downgraded it from "buy" to "market perform."

Grant Prideco (GRP), this is an oil service company, down $2.03. J.P. Morgan downgraded it from "buy" to "market perform," as it did with a number of oil service stocks because of valuation risks.

And Penton Media (PME) down $1.44. First Union downgraded it from "strong buy" to "buy." The company's products include trade magazines and trade shows. And how do people get to trade shows? They fly. So the current conditions could hurt attendance.

Nasdaq, a loss of just about 24 ½ points in the Composite Index. Trading volume way down from yesterday