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09/21/01: Wall Street Needs A
Presciption For Rehabilitation & Recovery |
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09/21/01: One On One With GE,
CEO, Jeffrey Immelt |
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09/21/01: Consumers May Have
To Spend The Economy Away From Recession |
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09/21/01: Market Monitor-Larry
Wachtel, Senior Vice President and Market Analyst for Prudential Securities |
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09/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street
Wrap Up |
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09/21/01: Market Stats |
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| 09/21/01: Wall
Street Needs A Prescription For Rehabilitation & Recovery
SUSIE GHARIB: The Dow ends its worst week ever with another triple-digit loss.
The blue chips dropped 140 points today, bringing their weekly point loss to a
record 1369 points. The NASDAQ fell 47 today. It was another volatile day with
huge price swings for the blue chips as investors pondered the implications of
President Bush's address to the nation last night. Suzanne Pratt reports.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It was a bitter end to
a brutal week on Wall Street, in fact, one of the worst weeks ever for stocks.
Already nervous investors became even more uneasy after last night's speech from
President Bush, stressing the need for US retaliation against last week's terrorist
attacks. The concern is how a protracted military campaign will affect the US
economy and corporate profits.
ROBERT SMITH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, T. ROWE PRICE GROWTH FUND: The magnitude of
how much it went down is all driven by sentiment. At the moment people feel I
think depressed about the fact that we're going to war and the fact that the economy
is gonna be difficult. I think this depression has people you know, kind of seeing
all the bad side of things.
PRATT: Also wrecking havoc on trading today was triple witching, the quarterly
expiration of futures and options, which makes for volatile sessions even during
the best of times. The Dow experienced several big swings throughout the day.
Reassuring comments from General Electric briefly nudged the index into positive
territory, but pessimism ultimately prevailed. For the week, the Dow has slid
14 percent. The NASDAQ has plunged 16 percent and the S&P 500 has slipped
12 percent. Despite the steep losses, some experts acknowledge that stocks are
significantly oversold, and ripe for at least a temporary bounce.
BRIAN FINNERTY, MARKET STRATEGIST, C.E. UNTERBERG, TOWBIN: We're compressed
down so hard that we're overdue for one of those pop-back type rallies and I think
the first piece of good news will in fact trigger that. So, we're gonna start
to see some things like that and I would think probably in the near future.
PRATT: NASDAQ investors, in particular, are in desperate need of a rally. While
all of the major stock indexes have suffered this year, the NASDAQ Composite is
off 42 percent since January and it's down a stunning f 71 percent from its March
2000 high. Suzanne Pratt, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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09/21/01: One On One With GE, CEO, Jeffrey Immelt
SUSIE GHARIB: GE stock rose today on positive comments from the company's new
CEO. Jeffrey Immelt told security analysts at a meeting in New York that GE is
forecasting earnings growth of 11 percent this year and that's despite the weakening
economy and expected losses from last week's terrorist attacks. When I talked
with Immelt earlier today, I asked him what's going to drive that growth.
JEFFREY IMMELT, CHAIRMAN & CEO, GENERAL ELECTRIC: I'm not trying to paint
anything being rosie. But GE's got a lot of diversity, and we have certain businesses
that have been impacted by this. Our airline oriented businesses, our short cycle
businesses have all been hurt. But the strength of GE is the diversity. Our power
systems backlog is still very strong. Our medical backlog still very strong, our
financial services are having a great year. And when you add that altogether and
think about the various scenarios for 2002, we still think that in the environment
we see today, which is very fluid, we can grow the company double digits.
GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, as you said, nobody knows what's going to happen. But if
the United States goes to war, if we go into a very deep recession, will we still
be talking about double digit earnings growth at GE?
IMMELT: I think the deep recession we've already planned for. I mean, again,
I hope it doesn't happen and it doesn't need - you know, it can be managed. We
can get through this. You can't look at all the vagaries of war and predict every
circumstance. I'm not going to try to do that right now. What I try to give people
a sense for today is, last Tuesday was an unmistakable tragedy, human tragedy
and we as a country need to deal with it. But not everything, not every industry
changed the last week. There's still lots of pockets of strength.
GHARIB: You acknowledge that the terrorist attack has impacted your airline,
aircraft leasing, your jet engine business, your reinsurance business. How does
that change the overall outlook for GE?
IMMELT: We can afford to take a long-term view on every business we're in.
Our reinsurance business had done a great job of protecting itself but there was
no protection against an incident like this. But it's still a good business and
we'll get through it and we'll back up what needs to happen there. Our aircraft
engines business, again the airline industry I think is core to our economy, but
it will change. But look, we're dedicated to it for a long time. I mean one of
the advantages of being a 102-year old company with lots of financial resources
is, you can look at the stuff for the long term.
GHARIB: The consumer is a sizable part of GE capital and given the outlook
for the economy, how's GE capital going to be affected?
IMMELT: You know, this our consumer oriented businesses grew 33 percent. We're
counting on the consumer pulling back a little bit and we're saying next year
those businesses will probably be impacted a little bit. The growth may be flat,
up 10 percent. But delinquencies are still relatively low. The layoffs are going
to have an impact but the consumer, particularly in the U.S., remains a very important
part and is still spending money.
GHARIB: What about cost reductions at GE? What about the potential for layoff?
IMMELT: The businesses where our customers have been impacted like aircraft
engines and things around the airlines are going to be impacted this year. Other
businesses won't change. We don't do broad based head count or employment discussions.
In GE we manage it business by business, town by town, factory by factory. Will
it have some impact, yes, but it won't be across the entire company.
GHARIB: They say that out of crisis comes opportunity. Do you see any opportunities
maybe for GE to make acquisitions?
IMMELT: Absolutely. I think when you look at GE today, we've got tremendous
financial strength, $50 billion in cash flow. We're well positioned in a lot of
industries, and as things become inexpensive, we're going to look very hard at
making, taking some strategic bets.
GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, these terrible events from last week came on your second
day as CEO. How did that change your priorities?
IMMELT: It means that I'm going to deal with the issues at hand. But I'm not
going to change the agenda for the company. We're going to continue to grow the
company. We're going to continue to make investments based on what I thought before
this happened. Remember, when we talk about a slow economy, this economy was slow
before this incident; we were already making plans for that. So, look, you deal
with issues, those go to the top of the list, you deal with people, that goes
to the top of the list, but our agenda for the company continues.
GHARIB: What keeps you up at night?
IMMELT: I only worry about those things I don't know. I understand all the
issues that have already happened. I under the insurance issue. I understand the
airline issue. It's just an uncertain time. But what gives me the ability to sleep
is the fact that we've got such great people at this company.
GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, thank you very much for talking to "NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT." Good luck to you.
IMMELT: Thanks.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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09/21/01: Consumers May Have To Spend The Economy
Away From Recession
SUSIE GHARIB: A new survey by the Conference Board shows that nearly half of
all Americans think the attacks on the US will push the country into recession.
As Diane Eastabrook reports, consumer spending is the key to whether or not that
happens.
DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The consumer has been
the one cylinder keeping the US economy in gear. But now there is concern consumer
spending will also stall as the US wages war on terrorism.
UNNAMED CONSUMER: No extravagances, not even the Internet.
UNNAMED CONSUMER: I have to keep this economy going. So I'm doing my part.
EASTABROOK: After terrorists attacked New York and Washington last week, traffic
fell off at stores across the nation because consumers were either too fearful
to venture out or were at home watching events unfold on television. Sears (S)
says on the day of the attacks, its same store sales fell 50 percent compared
to the same period last year and ended the week at dismal levels. Wal-Mart (WMT)
saw its sales sink 10 percent that Tuesday, but they improved by the weekend.
And auto sales slumped roughly 25 percent on average for the week following the
attacks. While many retailers say customers have been trickling back into stores
this week, analysts doubt they will soon return to the levels they were at in
early September.
NEIL STERN, RETAIL ANALYST, McMILLAN/DOOLITTLE: Consumer confidence was down
before this event and I assume it will be down even farther. So yeah, now you
combine this act with very real fears about losing people's jobs and I think that
will have an impact on retail.
EASTABROOK: Many economists anticipate consumers will cut back further on spending
over the next few months and that could deepen what some say is already a mild
recession.
DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK ONE: This was an economy in some ways braced
for the worst that wasn't occurring yet. Now the worse did occur-worse than anyone
could imagine-and there will be repercussions to that. But the good news is that
there is also a lot of stimulus, a lot of spending in the pipeline to get us to
higher economic ground once we've gone through this horrible devastating period.
EASTABROOK: Despite all of the uncertainty, many economists are confident the
U.S. economy and consumer will bounce back next year. The only question is when.
Diane Eastabrook, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Chicago.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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09/21/01: Market Monitor-Larry Wachtel, Senior Vice
President and Market Analyst for Prudential Securities
PAUL KANGAS: My market monitor guest tonight, Larry Wachtel, senior vice president
and market analyst for Prudential Securities, has 35 years of experience in the
investment community, through recessions, wars, and other trying times. I'm glad
you could be with us tonight, Larry. Welcome.
LARRY WACHTEL, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES: Thank you, Paul.
KANGAS: In your long career, have you seen anything comparable to current market
condition?
WACHTEL: Well, the closest thing I would say was the crash of '87. But that
was brought on by circumstances still to be determined, a strange crash. This
was the direct result of that tragic event on the 11th of September. The magnitude
of the decline, of course, one of the biggest declines in market history, but
it came as a crescendo. It came after an 18-month, $6 trillion decline had already
been in effect. So I look at this as the culmination of that bear market, rather
than the new leg of a new bear market.
KANGAS: So I mean, does the current volatility after the plunge suggest that
we are at the bottom, or close to it?
WACHTEL: Well, if you look at the sentiment indicators and if you look at the
technical indicators, they would suggest an approximate bottom. The only thing
is you have not made that final adjustment to the changed profitability. Two weeks
ago the street was looking for fourth quarter profits to be flat to higher. Now
they're looking for a 12 to 15 percent decline. The adjustment to that reality
is the thing that brought us down so dramatically this week.
KANGAS: So what type of a recession are we going to see? A quick V bottom to
it or is it going to be long and drawn out?
WACHTEL: No, it won't be V bottom, but it won't be long and drawn out either.
I think the second quarter probably fringed on it. The third quarter will probably
be a minus quarter and I think the fourth quarter will slowly begin to come out
of it. So it'll be short-lived. But we've been discounting this for quite some
time. We have been in a manufacturing recession for almost a year. This is simply
morphing into the broader economy.
KANGAS: But considering the pending war or war-like condition that we're going
to be in for some time, are the defense stocks the place to be, as far as investment
strategy is concerned?
WACHTEL: My problem is that on the initial reaction, they shot up dramatically,
and there will be a much more resources being brought to the defense industry.
By a lot of these stocks reflected on the short term. We move to a psychological
overweighting on the group, but we aren't able to really pull the trigger on specific
stocks because they've run so quickly.
KANGAS: What are you doing? Are you buying anything, sitting on the sidelines
waiting for even lower prices? What is your strategy?
WACHTEL: My strategy is to buy blue chip names, quality names, when they come
into my buying range.
KANGAS: Give us some those names.
WACHTEL: OK. Pfizer at 35 in the low end of its trading range. Verizon (VZ)
, the regional Bell company at $50. Microsoft having come from the mid 40s, to
mid 70s to the high 40s, coming into my buying range. Wal-Mart, which will get
the benefit of most of the consumer spending out of the tax rebate, down here
at 44. And Citigroup which has really been decimated from 15 to 36 coming into
my buying range. Quality names, they're going to work out for me long term. I'm
not looking to trade them, I'm looking to position them, no matter what the averages
are doing.
KANGAS: All right. As you mentioned before we got on the air, you think the
market is in a convalescent period, but it's starting to sit up in bed, right?
WACHTEL: Right. It's starting to take some
nourishment, right.
KANGAS: OK. That's a very good analogy and I hope you're right. I hope we'll
be walking down the hallway into higher ground before long.
WACHTEL: Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: Thank you very much for being with us Larry. My guest market monitor,
Larry Wachtel, senior vice president and market analyst for Prudential Securities.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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09/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: The stock market plunge, which erased 1229 points or 12 percent
from the Dow Industrial Average in this week's first four days, extended into
Wall Street's opening today as the threat of war and recession triggered still
more selling from scared investors. To make matters worse, there was selling linked
to expiring quarterly index futures and stock and index options, known as the
triple witching. In a straight line decline after about 40 minutes of trading,
the Dow tumbled 310 points or 3.7 percent while the NASDAQ Index was down 84 points
or 5.7 percent. Then came a kind of a whiplash technical rebound which was helped
along by the upbeat outlook from General Electric, which we'll have more on in
just a moment.
By 10:45 a.m., the Industrial Average boomeranged back to post a 58-point gain
and the NASDAQ cut its loss to only 17 points. That strength soon attracted more
selling and the market went into another downward spiral which lasted until early
afternoon when prices began to stabilize. Some bargain hunting and buying linked
to triple witching enabled the Dow Industrial Average to finally cut its closing
loss to 140.40 points. That's 1.7 percent, now stands at 8235.81. The Dow was
down of course every day this week resulting in a record one week overall point
loss of 1369.70. That's 14 ¼ percent. The NASDAQ Composite fell 47.74 today, ending
at 1424.19. This week the Composite Index endured a tumultuous drop of 272.19
points. That's 16 percent, the third biggest percent loss on record.
Big board volume nearing Monday's record, 2.314. That's about the second record
highest volume, I believe and then of course we see more than twice as much down
volume as up volume.
Dow Transport Index managed to gain 21 points. The airlines were mixed fractionally,
but the rails were the strength in the Transports.
Utility Index down 5.16.
The Closing Tick practically neutral at -56.
Standard & Poor's 500 down 18 3/4 points.
9 1/3 point drop in the 100.
The MidCap 400 off exactly 8 1/2 points.
Bridge Futures Price Index fell .54.
New York Stock Exchange Composite off almost 10 points.
Almost a 7 point drop in the Value Line.
Russell2000 Small Cap off 8 3/4 points.
And the broadly based Wilshire 5000 down a little over 172 3/4 points.
The bond market received support again from the continuing free fall in the
stock market as nervous investors sought safe haven in debt securities, especially
US Treasuries. More talk of recession was a plus of course, because it suggested
further easing in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
At the close of trading, tax-free issues were little changed, but corporates
were up about 3/8 of a point on average and Treasuries ended moderately higher
across the board.
5-year notes rising 4/32.
The 10-year notes up 14/32.
30-year bond gained 17/32.
And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index was up ¾ of a point.
Today 140 point loss in the Dow makes it eight down sessions in a row and that
hasn't happened since 1989. The broader market lower, 3 to 1 ratio of declines
over advancers and only 24 new yearly highs, 805 new lows.
General Electric (GE) topped the active list on a very heavy 68.7 million shares,
moving up $0.93 on that upbeat outlook.
Disney (DIS) rebounding $0.89 after down yesterday when the Bass Brothers had
to sell 135 million shares to cover a margin call apparently.
EMC (EMC) down $1.47 on news the company plans to lay off 2400 people. That's
10 percent of the workforce. Also the company says it will not break even in the
third quarter. I guess that means a loss.
AOL Time Warner Inc. (AOL), a $0.60 gain.
No change in Citigroup © today.
And then we see Pfizer (PFE) losing $0.74.
Followed by Compaq Computer (CPQ) up $0.14.
The NASDAQ Cubes (QQQ) down $0.78.
And Lucent Technologies (LU), a $0.44 drop.
AT&T (T), tenth in volume, lost $1.46.
Caterpillar (CAT) up $2.35. That was the biggest point gainer in the Dow Industrial
Average, saw no specific news.
CVS (CVS), the big drug store chain, down $3.10. Company sees lower than expected
third quarter earnings, $0.30, $0.32. The earlier projected for the company was
$0.35 to $0.37 a share.
IBM (IBM) did not participate in the late improvement in the market, down $2.90
on the close.
JP Morgan (JPM) fell $0.74 after reporting third quarter earnings fell 43 percent
from last year, $0.62 versus $1.09. And the company said the short-term outlook
is decisively negative.
Nike (NKE) moved up 142. First quarter earnings $0.75, $0.02 better than the
street expected, although down $0.02 from last year. First Boston did upgrade
the stock from "hold" to "buy" though.
And Procter & Gamble (PG), the big point loser in the Dow, off $5.81. No
specific news I saw.
Gucci Group (GUC) rising $14 a share on news that the European conglomerate
Pinault-Printemps will get approval from the Dutch regulators to increase its
stake in Gucci.
BJ Services, oil service stock, up $1.83 on reports of recent insider buying.
Fairchild Corporation (FA) down $1.07, big percentage loser. The fourth quarter
came in with earnings of $0.02 versus a loss of $0.16 last year. But the company
says order cancellations at Boeing (BA) and Airbus could hurt its business. It
makes industrial fasteners.
Meristar Hospitality (MHX) losing $2.86 on news the company terminated its
merger plan with FelCor Lodging (FCH).
Scor U.S. (SCO), this is a French-based reinsurance company and it notes an
exposure to the attack on America> Loss coverages rising, could be 150 to $200
million. Standard & Poor's put the stock on the credit watch with negative
implications.
Trenwick Group (TWK), this is another reinsurance firm. The company sees losses
of about $50 to $75 million from the attack on America.
NASDAQ trading, a 47 ¾ point loss today. For the week it was down $2.72. I
think that's the eighth worst point loss and it was the third worst percentage
loss on the week. Trading volume heavy at 2.57 billion shares and much more than
twice as many declines as advancers.
Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $1.05.
Followed by Intel (INTC) off $1.37.
$0.79 drop in Cisco Systems (CSCO).
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) fell $ |
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