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button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: Wall Street Needs A Presciption For Rehabilitation & Recovery Text-only
button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: One On One With GE, CEO, Jeffrey Immelt Text-only
button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: Consumers May Have To Spend The Economy Away From Recession Text-only
button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: Market Monitor-Larry Wachtel, Senior Vice President and Market Analyst for Prudential Securities Text-only
button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up Text-only
button.gif (507 bytes) 09/21/01: Market Stats Text-only
09/21/01: Wall Street Needs A Prescription For Rehabilitation & Recovery

SUSIE GHARIB: The Dow ends its worst week ever with another triple-digit loss. The blue chips dropped 140 points today, bringing their weekly point loss to a record 1369 points. The NASDAQ fell 47 today. It was another volatile day with huge price swings for the blue chips as investors pondered the implications of President Bush's address to the nation last night. Suzanne Pratt reports.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It was a bitter end to a brutal week on Wall Street, in fact, one of the worst weeks ever for stocks. Already nervous investors became even more uneasy after last night's speech from President Bush, stressing the need for US retaliation against last week's terrorist attacks. The concern is how a protracted military campaign will affect the US economy and corporate profits.

ROBERT SMITH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, T. ROWE PRICE GROWTH FUND: The magnitude of how much it went down is all driven by sentiment. At the moment people feel I think depressed about the fact that we're going to war and the fact that the economy is gonna be difficult. I think this depression has people you know, kind of seeing all the bad side of things.

PRATT: Also wrecking havoc on trading today was triple witching, the quarterly expiration of futures and options, which makes for volatile sessions even during the best of times. The Dow experienced several big swings throughout the day. Reassuring comments from General Electric briefly nudged the index into positive territory, but pessimism ultimately prevailed. For the week, the Dow has slid 14 percent. The NASDAQ has plunged 16 percent and the S&P 500 has slipped 12 percent. Despite the steep losses, some experts acknowledge that stocks are significantly oversold, and ripe for at least a temporary bounce.

BRIAN FINNERTY, MARKET STRATEGIST, C.E. UNTERBERG, TOWBIN: We're compressed down so hard that we're overdue for one of those pop-back type rallies and I think the first piece of good news will in fact trigger that. So, we're gonna start to see some things like that and I would think probably in the near future.

PRATT: NASDAQ investors, in particular, are in desperate need of a rally. While all of the major stock indexes have suffered this year, the NASDAQ Composite is off 42 percent since January and it's down a stunning f 71 percent from its March 2000 high. Suzanne Pratt, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.

 

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

 

09/21/01: One On One With GE, CEO, Jeffrey Immelt

SUSIE GHARIB: GE stock rose today on positive comments from the company's new CEO. Jeffrey Immelt told security analysts at a meeting in New York that GE is forecasting earnings growth of 11 percent this year and that's despite the weakening economy and expected losses from last week's terrorist attacks. When I talked with Immelt earlier today, I asked him what's going to drive that growth.

JEFFREY IMMELT, CHAIRMAN & CEO, GENERAL ELECTRIC: I'm not trying to paint anything being rosie. But GE's got a lot of diversity, and we have certain businesses that have been impacted by this. Our airline oriented businesses, our short cycle businesses have all been hurt. But the strength of GE is the diversity. Our power systems backlog is still very strong. Our medical backlog still very strong, our financial services are having a great year. And when you add that altogether and think about the various scenarios for 2002, we still think that in the environment we see today, which is very fluid, we can grow the company double digits.

GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, as you said, nobody knows what's going to happen. But if the United States goes to war, if we go into a very deep recession, will we still be talking about double digit earnings growth at GE?

IMMELT: I think the deep recession we've already planned for. I mean, again, I hope it doesn't happen and it doesn't need - you know, it can be managed. We can get through this. You can't look at all the vagaries of war and predict every circumstance. I'm not going to try to do that right now. What I try to give people a sense for today is, last Tuesday was an unmistakable tragedy, human tragedy and we as a country need to deal with it. But not everything, not every industry changed the last week. There's still lots of pockets of strength.

GHARIB: You acknowledge that the terrorist attack has impacted your airline, aircraft leasing, your jet engine business, your reinsurance business. How does that change the overall outlook for GE?

IMMELT: We can afford to take a long-term view on every business we're in. Our reinsurance business had done a great job of protecting itself but there was no protection against an incident like this. But it's still a good business and we'll get through it and we'll back up what needs to happen there. Our aircraft engines business, again the airline industry I think is core to our economy, but it will change. But look, we're dedicated to it for a long time. I mean one of the advantages of being a 102-year old company with lots of financial resources is, you can look at the stuff for the long term.

GHARIB: The consumer is a sizable part of GE capital and given the outlook for the economy, how's GE capital going to be affected?

IMMELT: You know, this our consumer oriented businesses grew 33 percent. We're counting on the consumer pulling back a little bit and we're saying next year those businesses will probably be impacted a little bit. The growth may be flat, up 10 percent. But delinquencies are still relatively low. The layoffs are going to have an impact but the consumer, particularly in the U.S., remains a very important part and is still spending money.

GHARIB: What about cost reductions at GE? What about the potential for layoff?

IMMELT: The businesses where our customers have been impacted like aircraft engines and things around the airlines are going to be impacted this year. Other businesses won't change. We don't do broad based head count or employment discussions. In GE we manage it business by business, town by town, factory by factory. Will it have some impact, yes, but it won't be across the entire company.

GHARIB: They say that out of crisis comes opportunity. Do you see any opportunities maybe for GE to make acquisitions?

IMMELT: Absolutely. I think when you look at GE today, we've got tremendous financial strength, $50 billion in cash flow. We're well positioned in a lot of industries, and as things become inexpensive, we're going to look very hard at making, taking some strategic bets.

GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, these terrible events from last week came on your second day as CEO. How did that change your priorities?

IMMELT: It means that I'm going to deal with the issues at hand. But I'm not going to change the agenda for the company. We're going to continue to grow the company. We're going to continue to make investments based on what I thought before this happened. Remember, when we talk about a slow economy, this economy was slow before this incident; we were already making plans for that. So, look, you deal with issues, those go to the top of the list, you deal with people, that goes to the top of the list, but our agenda for the company continues.

GHARIB: What keeps you up at night?

IMMELT: I only worry about those things I don't know. I understand all the issues that have already happened. I under the insurance issue. I understand the airline issue. It's just an uncertain time. But what gives me the ability to sleep is the fact that we've got such great people at this company.

GHARIB: Mr. Immelt, thank you very much for talking to "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT." Good luck to you.

IMMELT: Thanks.

 

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

 

09/21/01: Consumers May Have To Spend The Economy Away From Recession

SUSIE GHARIB: A new survey by the Conference Board shows that nearly half of all Americans think the attacks on the US will push the country into recession. As Diane Eastabrook reports, consumer spending is the key to whether or not that happens.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The consumer has been the one cylinder keeping the US economy in gear. But now there is concern consumer spending will also stall as the US wages war on terrorism.

UNNAMED CONSUMER: No extravagances, not even the Internet.

UNNAMED CONSUMER: I have to keep this economy going. So I'm doing my part.

EASTABROOK: After terrorists attacked New York and Washington last week, traffic fell off at stores across the nation because consumers were either too fearful to venture out or were at home watching events unfold on television. Sears (S) says on the day of the attacks, its same store sales fell 50 percent compared to the same period last year and ended the week at dismal levels. Wal-Mart (WMT) saw its sales sink 10 percent that Tuesday, but they improved by the weekend. And auto sales slumped roughly 25 percent on average for the week following the attacks. While many retailers say customers have been trickling back into stores this week, analysts doubt they will soon return to the levels they were at in early September.

NEIL STERN, RETAIL ANALYST, McMILLAN/DOOLITTLE: Consumer confidence was down before this event and I assume it will be down even farther. So yeah, now you combine this act with very real fears about losing people's jobs and I think that will have an impact on retail.

EASTABROOK: Many economists anticipate consumers will cut back further on spending over the next few months and that could deepen what some say is already a mild recession.

DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK ONE: This was an economy in some ways braced for the worst that wasn't occurring yet. Now the worse did occur-worse than anyone could imagine-and there will be repercussions to that. But the good news is that there is also a lot of stimulus, a lot of spending in the pipeline to get us to higher economic ground once we've gone through this horrible devastating period.

EASTABROOK: Despite all of the uncertainty, many economists are confident the U.S. economy and consumer will bounce back next year. The only question is when. Diane Eastabrook, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Chicago.

 

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

 

09/21/01: Market Monitor-Larry Wachtel, Senior Vice President and Market Analyst for Prudential Securities

PAUL KANGAS: My market monitor guest tonight, Larry Wachtel, senior vice president and market analyst for Prudential Securities, has 35 years of experience in the investment community, through recessions, wars, and other trying times. I'm glad you could be with us tonight, Larry. Welcome.

LARRY WACHTEL, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES: Thank you, Paul.

KANGAS: In your long career, have you seen anything comparable to current market condition?

WACHTEL: Well, the closest thing I would say was the crash of '87. But that was brought on by circumstances still to be determined, a strange crash. This was the direct result of that tragic event on the 11th of September. The magnitude of the decline, of course, one of the biggest declines in market history, but it came as a crescendo. It came after an 18-month, $6 trillion decline had already been in effect. So I look at this as the culmination of that bear market, rather than the new leg of a new bear market.

KANGAS: So I mean, does the current volatility after the plunge suggest that we are at the bottom, or close to it?

WACHTEL: Well, if you look at the sentiment indicators and if you look at the technical indicators, they would suggest an approximate bottom. The only thing is you have not made that final adjustment to the changed profitability. Two weeks ago the street was looking for fourth quarter profits to be flat to higher. Now they're looking for a 12 to 15 percent decline. The adjustment to that reality is the thing that brought us down so dramatically this week.

KANGAS: So what type of a recession are we going to see? A quick V bottom to it or is it going to be long and drawn out?

WACHTEL: No, it won't be V bottom, but it won't be long and drawn out either. I think the second quarter probably fringed on it. The third quarter will probably be a minus quarter and I think the fourth quarter will slowly begin to come out of it. So it'll be short-lived. But we've been discounting this for quite some time. We have been in a manufacturing recession for almost a year. This is simply morphing into the broader economy.

KANGAS: But considering the pending war or war-like condition that we're going to be in for some time, are the defense stocks the place to be, as far as investment strategy is concerned?

WACHTEL: My problem is that on the initial reaction, they shot up dramatically, and there will be a much more resources being brought to the defense industry. By a lot of these stocks reflected on the short term. We move to a psychological overweighting on the group, but we aren't able to really pull the trigger on specific stocks because they've run so quickly.

KANGAS: What are you doing? Are you buying anything, sitting on the sidelines waiting for even lower prices? What is your strategy?

WACHTEL: My strategy is to buy blue chip names, quality names, when they come into my buying range.

KANGAS: Give us some those names.

WACHTEL: OK. Pfizer at 35 in the low end of its trading range. Verizon (VZ) , the regional Bell company at $50. Microsoft having come from the mid 40s, to mid 70s to the high 40s, coming into my buying range. Wal-Mart, which will get the benefit of most of the consumer spending out of the tax rebate, down here at 44. And Citigroup which has really been decimated from 15 to 36 coming into my buying range. Quality names, they're going to work out for me long term. I'm not looking to trade them, I'm looking to position them, no matter what the averages are doing.

KANGAS: All right. As you mentioned before we got on the air, you think the market is in a convalescent period, but it's starting to sit up in bed, right?

WACHTEL: Right. It's starting to take some

nourishment, right.

KANGAS: OK. That's a very good analogy and I hope you're right. I hope we'll be walking down the hallway into higher ground before long.

WACHTEL: Thank you Paul.

KANGAS: Thank you very much for being with us Larry. My guest market monitor, Larry Wachtel, senior vice president and market analyst for Prudential Securities.

 

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

 

 

 

09/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: The stock market plunge, which erased 1229 points or 12 percent from the Dow Industrial Average in this week's first four days, extended into Wall Street's opening today as the threat of war and recession triggered still more selling from scared investors. To make matters worse, there was selling linked to expiring quarterly index futures and stock and index options, known as the triple witching. In a straight line decline after about 40 minutes of trading, the Dow tumbled 310 points or 3.7 percent while the NASDAQ Index was down 84 points or 5.7 percent. Then came a kind of a whiplash technical rebound which was helped along by the upbeat outlook from General Electric, which we'll have more on in just a moment.

By 10:45 a.m., the Industrial Average boomeranged back to post a 58-point gain and the NASDAQ cut its loss to only 17 points. That strength soon attracted more selling and the market went into another downward spiral which lasted until early afternoon when prices began to stabilize. Some bargain hunting and buying linked to triple witching enabled the Dow Industrial Average to finally cut its closing loss to 140.40 points. That's 1.7 percent, now stands at 8235.81. The Dow was down of course every day this week resulting in a record one week overall point loss of 1369.70. That's 14 ¼ percent. The NASDAQ Composite fell 47.74 today, ending at 1424.19. This week the Composite Index endured a tumultuous drop of 272.19 points. That's 16 percent, the third biggest percent loss on record.

Big board volume nearing Monday's record, 2.314. That's about the second record highest volume, I believe and then of course we see more than twice as much down volume as up volume.

Dow Transport Index managed to gain 21 points. The airlines were mixed fractionally, but the rails were the strength in the Transports.

Utility Index down 5.16.

The Closing Tick practically neutral at -56.

Standard & Poor's 500 down 18 3/4 points.

9 1/3 point drop in the 100.

The MidCap 400 off exactly 8 1/2 points.

Bridge Futures Price Index fell .54.

New York Stock Exchange Composite off almost 10 points.

Almost a 7 point drop in the Value Line.

Russell2000 Small Cap off 8 3/4 points.

And the broadly based Wilshire 5000 down a little over 172 3/4 points.

The bond market received support again from the continuing free fall in the stock market as nervous investors sought safe haven in debt securities, especially US Treasuries. More talk of recession was a plus of course, because it suggested further easing in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

At the close of trading, tax-free issues were little changed, but corporates were up about 3/8 of a point on average and Treasuries ended moderately higher across the board.

5-year notes rising 4/32.

The 10-year notes up 14/32.

30-year bond gained 17/32.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index was up ¾ of a point.

Today 140 point loss in the Dow makes it eight down sessions in a row and that hasn't happened since 1989. The broader market lower, 3 to 1 ratio of declines over advancers and only 24 new yearly highs, 805 new lows.

General Electric (GE) topped the active list on a very heavy 68.7 million shares, moving up $0.93 on that upbeat outlook.

Disney (DIS) rebounding $0.89 after down yesterday when the Bass Brothers had to sell 135 million shares to cover a margin call apparently.

EMC (EMC) down $1.47 on news the company plans to lay off 2400 people. That's 10 percent of the workforce. Also the company says it will not break even in the third quarter. I guess that means a loss.

AOL Time Warner Inc. (AOL), a $0.60 gain.

No change in Citigroup © today.

And then we see Pfizer (PFE) losing $0.74.

Followed by Compaq Computer (CPQ) up $0.14.

The NASDAQ Cubes (QQQ) down $0.78.

And Lucent Technologies (LU), a $0.44 drop.

AT&T (T), tenth in volume, lost $1.46.

Caterpillar (CAT) up $2.35. That was the biggest point gainer in the Dow Industrial Average, saw no specific news.

CVS (CVS), the big drug store chain, down $3.10. Company sees lower than expected third quarter earnings, $0.30, $0.32. The earlier projected for the company was $0.35 to $0.37 a share.

IBM (IBM) did not participate in the late improvement in the market, down $2.90 on the close.

JP Morgan (JPM) fell $0.74 after reporting third quarter earnings fell 43 percent from last year, $0.62 versus $1.09. And the company said the short-term outlook is decisively negative.

Nike (NKE) moved up 142. First quarter earnings $0.75, $0.02 better than the street expected, although down $0.02 from last year. First Boston did upgrade the stock from "hold" to "buy" though.

And Procter & Gamble (PG), the big point loser in the Dow, off $5.81. No specific news I saw.

Gucci Group (GUC) rising $14 a share on news that the European conglomerate Pinault-Printemps will get approval from the Dutch regulators to increase its stake in Gucci.

BJ Services, oil service stock, up $1.83 on reports of recent insider buying.

Fairchild Corporation (FA) down $1.07, big percentage loser. The fourth quarter came in with earnings of $0.02 versus a loss of $0.16 last year. But the company says order cancellations at Boeing (BA) and Airbus could hurt its business. It makes industrial fasteners.

Meristar Hospitality (MHX) losing $2.86 on news the company terminated its merger plan with FelCor Lodging (FCH).

Scor U.S. (SCO), this is a French-based reinsurance company and it notes an exposure to the attack on America> Loss coverages rising, could be 150 to $200 million. Standard & Poor's put the stock on the credit watch with negative implications.

Trenwick Group (TWK), this is another reinsurance firm. The company sees losses of about $50 to $75 million from the attack on America.

NASDAQ trading, a 47 ¾ point loss today. For the week it was down $2.72. I think that's the eighth worst point loss and it was the third worst percentage loss on the week. Trading volume heavy at 2.57 billion shares and much more than twice as many declines as advancers.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $1.05.

Followed by Intel (INTC) off $1.37.

$0.79 drop in Cisco Systems (CSCO).

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) fell $

 

 

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