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10/11/01: Wall Street Rallies
Despite Retailers |
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10/11/01: The Market Outlook
From Robert Doll of Merrill Lynch |
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10/11/01: "America Rebuilds"-How
Rural America Is Recovering |
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10/11/01: Commentary: AT&T
Refuses To Disconnect At Home |
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10/11/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street
Wrap Up |
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10/11/01: Market Stats |
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| 10/11/01:
Wall Street Rallies Despite Retailers
SUSIE GHARIB: On the one-month anniversary of the terrorist attacks, Wall Street
fought back with a rally. The NASDAQ rose 75 points, closing above its pre-September
11 level. The Dow gained 170 points. Investors were encouraged today by upbeat
earnings news from General Electric (GE), E*TRADE (ET) and Genentech (DNA) . The
rally came in spite of bleak sales figures from the nation's largest retailers.
As Suzanne Pratt reports, consumers are still wary about opening up their wallets.
LINDA KRISTIANSEN, RETAIL ANALYST, UBS WARBURG: Apparel has been the weakest
categories almost well, for most of the year, and since September 11th, it's declined
even further. It's a very postponable, discretionary purchase, and that's really
what drives the department store business.
PRATT: Discounter Wal-Mart (WMT), however, was the one major bright spot. Because
shoppers were stocking up on basics last month, its sales surged 6.3 percent.
And experts say the disparity between value-oriented chains and department and
specialty stores is likely to get even wider this year as shoppers hunt for bargains
amid a backdrop of uncertain economic conditions.
ROBERT BUCHANAN, RETAIL ANALYST, AG EDWARDS: That's a chasm obviously between
the haves and the have-nots and we think that chasm is probably going to grow
the worse the situation becomes. And we do see the situation deteriorating some
in the near term.
PRATT: Even though September sales were the weakest in nearly two decades,
analysts weren't completely disheartened about the future. They point out that
purchases did pick up in September as the month progressed, and some are even
suggesting that holiday sales might be a pleasant surprise, especially because
Americans used tax rebate checks to pay off debt.
KRISTIANSEN: I think Christmas probably won't be hurt that much by debt repayment;
comparisons are easy, energy prices are down, people aren't traveling as much.
So, for lots of reasons, I think Christmas, while not one of our better Christmases,
will also not be quite as bad as maybe the initial expectation was.
PRATT: Even before retailers get to the holidays, they will first have to survive
third quarter reporting season. Experts say profits for the sector are likely
to be weak, hurt by razor-thin margins. Suzanne Pratt, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT," New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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10/11/01: The Market
Outlook From Robert Doll of Merrill Lynch
SUSIE GHARIB: Our guest tonight is "cautiously optimistic," saying
Wall Street is in the late stage of a bear market. He is Robert Doll, president
and chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch investment advisors. He oversees
$525 billion in assets. He joins us live from Princeton, New Jersey. Hi, Bob.
ROBERT DOLL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MERRILL LYNCH ASSET MGMT: Good evening
Susie.
GHARIB: Well, Bob, we have had rallies; we have had sell-offs. America is in
a war. How are you investing all of these portfolios in this climate?
DOLL: Well, volatility is the watch word. We've seen it (INAUDIBLE) from the
last couple days on the upside. I suspect we're going to getting more of it Susie,
in both directions. We've have had a wonderful rally. NASDAQ as you point out,
above the pre attack levels. I think we can get lulled into thinking that it's
all over on the down side. We still have some bad fundamentals to report.
GHARIB: So what's your strategy in this market?
DOLL: Balanced, diversified, dollar cost averaging. Four letter words from
the late 1990s, but it's working in this environment. We think that investors
should be patient. Trying to buy them when they're down and trim them when they're
up we think makes a lot of sense. That obviously is hard to do, to pick the bottoms
and the tops, but it's going to be a trader's sort of market where stocks have
wide moves within an overall range of perhaps the Dow 8,000, the Dow 10,000.
GHARIB: That's quite a range. Investors have been conditioned to some degree
in the past that when there were crises in the market, they would buy on the dips.
But this crisis is quite different. What advice to you give?
DOLL: Well, thankfully we've had some policy working in our favor, monetary
and fiscal policy that will get the economy going. In the meantime, as you point
out, we don't know who the enemy is necessarily, we don't know where they're located.
So a quick win like we've had in other conflicts is much more difficult. I think
that raises a big time question mark about the market that's going to be with
us for some time, and that's why we talk about this volatile trading range.
GHARIB: Bob, today we had some encouraging news on the earnings front, but
we know that this earnings season is going to be pretty nasty. How are you factoring
in earnings reports that are going to be coming out into your investment decisions?
DOLL: Well, there's no question earnings won't be good this quarter. They won't
be good next, that is, the fourth quarter when it's reported in January, as lots
of CEOs write off the kitchen sink, if you will. The analysis has to be what will
earnings look like next year, a new base, and what will growth rates be off that?
That's a very difficult analysis but we think that's what the market is beginning
to pay attention to.
GHARIB: So with that as a backdrop, then, if an investor has some new money,
what would be some of the stocks that you think would be good long-term holds
at this point?
DOLL: Well, I would go with the names that are still showing the earnings.
We've had a run in cyclicals of late, but I think the companies that are showing
earnings now still will be OK.
GHARIB: Like which companies?
DOLL: Philip Morris (MO) would be an example, good cash flow, earnings and
dividends growth. Washington Mutual (WM) in the S&L area, the largest thrift
in the country benefiting from the acquisition of Dime Savings recently. And Tenants
Healthcare in the health care segment. Hospitals where they have some unit growth
and improving balance sheet and actually, believe it or not, some pricing power.
GHARIB: OK. Well, thank you very much for those suggestions. And we really
appreciate your talking to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
DOLL: Thanks, Susie.
GHARIB: We've been speaking with Robert Doll of Merrill Lynch.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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10/11/01: "America Rebuilds"-How Rural
America Is Recovering
SUSIE GHARIB: Very respectable gains. Confidence is difficult to measure and
once lost hard to rebuild. But one month after the worst terrorist attacks in
history, many economists say restoring confidence is the crucial factor in determining
how fast the American economy recovers. Tonight Darren Gersh looks at how confidence
in one small city, Hagerstown, Maryland, is coming back, as we continue our series
America Rebuilds.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Like much of the country,
the people of Hagerstown, Maryland are still shocked and saddened by the attacks
of September 11. But one month later there is another feeling here, surprise.
Surprise that for all the uncertainty, business is coming back. Derek Hamilton
says sales at this family owned Nissan dealership are just getting back to normal.
DEREK HAMILTON, SALES MANAGER, HAMILTON NISSAN: It was very difficult for the
first couple of weeks because we were in flux and you don't know what was going
to go-you don't know what's going to go on. And we're just like a consumer, you
kind of back off. But then there were bargains in the marketplace. That really
helps, bargains to be bought.
GERSH: Wholesale prices on used cars fell five percent after the attacks and
Hamilton started buying. Salespeople were excited to have more cars to sell. Now
zero interest rate financing is bringing in customers. Later this month, Hamilton
is planning a customer appreciation night to introduce the 2002 Altima. Through
it all, Derek Hamilton says one thing sustained his confidence.
HAMILTON: Faith. Faith in the sense that we're in a rural area with a lot of
people commuting. They need to buy cars. I am in the greatest business in the
world because everyone needs to buy a car. And it's just a matter of time before
people have to come back and have to buy cars.
GERSH: Before the attacks of September 11, there was a sense here that the
economy was just about to turn the corner. Now many business owners say that recovery
has been pushed back by six months to a year as confidence rebuilds. Bill Sanders
is CEO of specialty stairway maker Duvinage. For the last six months, large manufacturers
in the Hagerstown area have been laying off workers and Sanders was alarmed as
orders dried up after the 11th.
BILL SANDERS, CEO, DUVINAGE CORPORATION: After that we thought oh goodness
gracious, you know, this is it. You know, we're really going to be in the state
of a recession. However, within two weeks we've seen our orders come back up to
levels that are higher than what they were prior to September the 11th.
GERSH: After the attacks, this former marine says he got aggressive with his
sales force. The company is stressing on time delivery and immediate response
on requests for pricing. Duvinage is expanding into hot markets in Colorado, southern
California and Florida. Sanders now believes the company will squeeze out its
first profit in 10 years. But he is still not satisfied with the company's four
month backlog of orders.
SANDERS: To be 100 percent back to normal, have a year backlog. Then I'm saying
boy, this is where I want to be. This is great. Realistically, I don't see that
happening for at least a year.
GERSH: At Corsi's Pizza, take out business is up as more people stay home and
watch the news. But businessmen who used to come in twice a week are now packing
their own lunch.
TONY BOWERS, CHEF, CORSI'S PIZZA: There's a lot of hesitation, a lot of hesitation
on spending the money. I notice it mainly during the lunch hour. They're just
not out spending their money.
GERSH: Other more expensive restaurants in Hagerstown have been hurting since
the attacks, but Bowers says overall his business is steady and he expects things
to pick up during the Christmas season. The food is cheap and good, but in uncertain
times customers are also looking for something else, a sense of community.
BOWERS: It's a family restaurant and we've been here so long people like to
come in and they feel a little more comfortable here.
GERSH: It's the same story down the street from Corsi's at Krumpe's Donuts.
Co-owner Rudy Krumpe says customers were stunned for a day or two, but quickly
came back. Donuts as good as these are hard to resist.
RUDY KRUMPE, CO-OWNER, KRUMPE'S DO-NUT SHOP: When the economy gets slow, people
can still afford to buy a donut. You can buy a dozen donuts and still have a nice
snack for the whole family.
GERSH: The world has changed since September 11, but people in Hagerstown say
life and business must go on. They are determined not to let terrorists stop this
nation or its economy. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Hagerstown, Maryland.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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10/11/01: Commentary: AT&T Refuses To Disconnect
At Home
SUSIE GHARIB: In tonight's commentary, AT&T (T) is persistent, especially
when it comes to its troubled At Home (ATHM) unit. Here's Allan Sloan, Wall Street
Editor of "Newsweek" magazine.
ALLAN SLOAN, COMMENTARY: One of the things they taught us in kindergarten was
if you don't succeed, try, try again. That's what AT&T is doing with a company
called At Home. At Home carries broadband services that AT&T offers its cable
TV customers and AT&T is now trying for the third time to get At Home right.
The first time was in 1998. AT&T paid around $1 billion for voting control
of the company, which is publicly traded stock. But AT&T had trouble with
two other of At Home's other shareholders. So early this year, AT&T made its
second try. It paid those holders $3.4 billion to get full operating control.
And then things got worse. At Home was such a turkey that it filed for bankruptcy.
That gobbled up AT&T's investment. But AT&T is nothing if not persistent.
It's making its third try. It's offering $307 million for the At Home assets it
needs. To be fair, AT&T has plenty of company in embarrassing telecom investments.
Verizon (VZ) paid $14 a share for a big piece of Metromedia Fiber (MFNX). Last
week, it agreed to put in more money as part of a rescue plan. The stock's value,
$0.54. The buyout firm of Forstmann, Little & Company has a similar problem
with one of its holdings, XO Communications (XOXO). But when it comes to sheer
dollars and sheer embarrassment, AT&T's investment in At Home is the industry
leader. But miracles do happen. Its first two investments didn't work. Maybe the
third time will be the charm. I'm Allan Sloan.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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10/11/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened sharply higher today in an extension
of yesterday's wide-ranging rally which resulted in gains of 188 points for the
Dow and 56 points for the NASDAQ Index. Solid advances in most European markets
for the second straight day added to bullish enthusiasm, as did the continuing
success of US air strikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan. By 10:00 this morning,
the Dow jumped to a 155-point or 1.6 percent gain. NASDAQ was up 51.5 points,
or 3.2 percent. Those good earnings reports from General Electric, E*TRADE and
Genentech helped the early rally keep its legs throughout the morning, and so
did a growing confidence that the nation was getting back on track after the terrorist
attacks exactly one month ago. Just before noontime then, the Industrial Average
was up a hefty 186 points, or 2 percent. NASDAQ posted a 58-point rise or 3.6
percent. As the market's strength continued unabated for the second day on good
volume and impressive breadth, short covering purchases by scared bears especially
in the NASDAQ market kept prices buoyant right to the closing bell. The Dow Industrial
Average ended with a gain of 169.59 points, or 1.8 percent. It now stands at 9410.45,
about 200 points below its pre-attack level. The NASDAQ Index today up 75.2, or
4.6 percent, ending at 1701.47, just above its pre-attack level.
Volume picked up on the rally impressively to 1.666 billion shares and a lot
more up volume than down volume, about 2 1/2 times.
The Dow Transport Index had a big day, up nearly 86 1/4 points.
Utilities edged up only .09.
The Closing Tick still fairly bullish at +559.
Standard & Poor's 500 up nearly 16 1/2 points.
An 8 2/3 point rise in the 100.
The MidCap 400 up just about 10 points.
And the Bridge Futures Price Index up 1.11.
A gain of nearly 6 points in the New York Composite.
Value Line rising nearly 9 points.
And the Russell2000 Small Cap up 9 1/3 points.
Broadly based Wilshire 5000 up 171 1/3 points.
Bond prices were weak for the third straight session as buyers stayed on the
sidelines awaiting some sizable new Treasury debt offerings. The market was also
hurt by some selling from investors who wanted to shift funds into the rejuvenated
stock market. Another negative was a much larger than expected drop of 67,000
in the number of new weekly jobless benefit claims, which suggested an improving
economy.
Tax-free and corporates fell 3/8 to 1/2 point on average and the Treasury market
closed moderately lower across the board.
5-year notes dropping 9/32.
10-year notes down 16/32.
30-year bond dropped 20/32.
And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index off 8.62.
Looking at the market overall, the Dow had another good day, up nearly 170
points or 1.8 percent. And the advance/decline ratio impressive at 19 to 11, advances
over declines. 77 new yearly highs; only 26 new lows.
EMC (EMC) topped the active list on 27.6 million shares, rising $1.08. That's
a good percentage move. The data storage sector was strong today after Brocade
Communications issued an upbeat outlook on revenues.
NorTel Networks (NT) edged up $0.12 a share.
Then GE (GE) a $1.04 gain. That certainly helped the Dow with those earnings
right in line with expectations.
Lucent Technologies (LU) moved up $0.23.
Then Citigroup doing well, up $1.44.
Nokia (NOK) edged up $0.36.
Texas Instruments (TXN) coming alive with a gain of $2.30.
And Pfizer (PFE) down $0.93.
AOL Time Warner (AOL) gained $1.57.
And The Gap (GPS), tenth in volume, edged up $0.15.
Accenture Limited (ACN) rose $1.49. Fourth quarter operating earnings out today,
$0.12, a $0.01 above the Street estimate and that was on a respectable 11 percent
increase in revenues.
Allstate (AL), however, down $3.43. The company sees its third quarter earnings
coming in around $0.53 to $0.57. The Street was expecting $0.64 and last year
the company earned $0.72 in that period.
Federated Department Stores (FD) up $2.12. September same store sales fell
13 percent, but that was not as bad as expected.
Ford Motor (F) down $0.13. The company is cutting its fourth quarter dividend
by 50 percent all the way from $0.30 down to $0.15, but that was widely expected,
actually. C.S. First Boston issued a "buy" on Ford's stock.
News Limited (NWS) up $1.88. Chairman Rupert Murdoch said that the company
has weathered the impact of the attack on America quite well and it's better positioned
than its competitors to make a solid recovery.
And then 3M (MMM) up $4.30, was the biggest point gainer in the Dow Industrial
Average today.
Hangar Orthopedic Group (HGR) gained $1.26, the big percentage gainer on the
big board. First Boston issued, or I should say upgraded it from "hold"
to "buy."
Corning (GLW) up $1.38. It was a good day for fallen angels, especially in
the high tech arena.
E-Trade Group (ET), the online broker, up $1.19. Third quarter earnings came
in at $0.03, up from $0.02 a year ago despite a 14 percent drop in revenues. The
company said cost cutting is paying off and it expects fourth quarter earnings
to rise to $0.04. The original estimate was $0.02.
Talbots (TLB), another department store, up $3.95. The news here, the company
sees third quarter earnings of $0.57, a $0.01 above the Street estimate, and it
sees fourth quarter around $0.52 to $0.54.
Americredit (ACF) tumbling $8.50. First quarter earnings were higher, $0.88
versus $0.51. But the Robertson Stevens and U.S. Bank Brokerage both downgraded
it on concern about consumer credit quality.
And British Telecomm (BTY) dropping $5.32 on a disappointing four percent rise
in new subscribers.
NASDAQ trading, a big gain of nearly 75 1/4 points. That is a move. And the
volume's big, too, at 2.5 billion shares. And the advance/decline ratio very good,
better than 2 to 1 in favor of advancers.
Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, up $0.81.
And then the titans come alive again, Intel (INTC) up $1.45.
Cisco (CS |
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