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10/30/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street got another reminder today that the economy is facing
a tough time and it didn't like what it heard. A new report shows consumer confidence
in October at its lowest point in more than seven years. The Conference Board's
figures show a huge slide from September, off more than 10 points. Analysts say
that drop-off is troublesome.
MAUREEN ALLYN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ZURICH SCUDDER INVESTMENTS: Consumer confidence
just plunged and I think we all knew people were going to be feeling uncomfortable,
but the suddenness and the steepness of the fall suggests that there's been a
real change in the climate. It's really chilly out there.
KANGAS: The stock market was already down before that consumer confidence report
was released and the bad news triggered another wave of selling, which sent the
Dow Industrial Average tumbling to a 171 point loss by 11:00 a.m., while the NASDAQ
Index fell 44 points. The steep sell-off finally attracted some bargain hunting
as morning trading continued, but the buyers were very cautious after old stalwarts
like Philip Morris (MO) and McDonald's (MCD) weakened after getting brokerage
downgrades. Reports of additional anthrax victims was another negative. Nevertheless,
the Dow managed to trim its deficit to 98 points by 2:00 this afternoon and the
NASDAQ Index was off only 14 points. The rebound attempt had no staying power
and sellers regained dominance for the rest of the session. The Dow Industrial
Average fell to a closing loss of 147.52 points, putting it at 9,121.98. The NASDAQ
Composite Index ended with a loss of 32.11 at 1667.41.
Big board volume moved up on the sell off, 1.3 billion shares and five times
as much down volume as up volume. We haven't seen it that bad in a long time.
Transports Index down nearly 23 3/4 points.
Utility Index fell just over 4 points.
The Closing Tick just modestly bearish at -214.
Standard & Poor's 500 off 18 1/2 points.
A little over an 8 1/4 point drop in the 100.
The MidCap 400 fell just over 8 1/2 points.
Bridge Futures Price Index edged up the smallest of fractions.
New York Stock Exchange Composite off 9.11.
A 6 3/4 point drop in the Value Line.
Russell2000 off a little over 6 1/2 points.
And the broadly based Wilshire 5000 dropped 171 3/4 points or 1.7 percent.
Bond prices rallied for the fifth straight session today, driving short-term
yields to 20 year lows. The market again benefited by safe haven buying prompted
by that big drop in consumer confidence which fueled hopes for another rate cut
by the Fed next week. Jitters over Argentina's debt problem also brought in buyers
as did growing anthrax fears.
Tax free and corporate issues rose 1/4 to 1/2 point on average and the Treasuriy
market closed nicely higher.
5-year notes up 12/32.
10-year notes rose 18/32.
And then the 30-year bond up 29/32.
While the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index gained just a little
over 7 1/2 points.
The market was in a different kind of soup for the second day running, triple
digit losses in the Dow Industrial Average, 147 ½ points. And for every 9 stocks
up, 21 were lower. Only 28 new yearly highs as against 90 new lows.
Enron (ENE) topped the active list once again, today on 42.7 million shares.
That's a 19 percent drop. Yesterday, of course, Moody's cut some of the company's
debt ratings and the stock has been down every day since October 16, when it reported
a third quarter loss.
CVS (CVS), the big drugstore chain, down $7.27. That's a 23 percent drop. Third
quarter earnings lower, $0.30 versus $0.36 a year ago. The company sees fourth
quarter earnings even lower, $0.23 to $0.28 versus the $0.39 Wall Street estimate.
Anthem (ATH) went public today and did very well in this kind of a market.
This is a health insurance company. 48 million shares offered at a price of $36,
opened at $40.50 and it closed right at the height of the day, $40.90.
EMC (EMC) down $0.95. IBM (IBM) appears to be making inroads in storage products
to compete with EMC.
AOL Time Warner (AOL) down $0.58, fifth in volume.
Citigroup down $0.80.
And then General Electric (GE) lost $1.09.
McDonalds (MCD) dropping $1.29. Bank America cut McDonald's' 2002 earnings
estimates from $1.50 down to $1.45. First Boston and Alex Brown Brokerages also
cut earnings estimates for next year.
Motorola (MOT) fell $0.81.
AT&T (T), tenth in volume, lost $0.03 a share.
Fluor (FLR) down $4.19. And after the market closed, the company reported a
third quarter loss of $0.68 a share versus a loss of only $0.17 in the fourth
quarter a year ago. That's the best quarter to compare it with since they changed
to a calendar accounting year.
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) up $1.26. Third quarter earnings were down 32 percent,
$0.34 versus $0.47 last year. But that was $0.01 above the Wall Street estimate.
Philip Morris (MO), a big Dow stock, losing $1.98. Goldman Sachs removed it
from its "recommended" list, now just rates it a "market outperformer."
Procter & Gamble (PG) had a good day, the big gainer in the Dow, one of
only two. IBM (IBM) was the other one, and it gained only $0.03. But Procter &
Gamble had third quarter earnings of $0.96 a share, $0.02 above the Street estimate.
Serono SA (SRA), this is the Swiss biotech firm, down $1.41. Third quarter
earnings lower than expected, $0.10 versus $0.13 last year.
And then SuperValue (SVU), the big drug-the big grocery store chain, down $1.96
on news the company plans to raise $185 million through the sale of zero coupon
convertible notes, representing some earnings dilution.
Royal Caribbean (RCL), the cruise ship owner, up $1.28, one of the best percentage
gainers. Third quarter earnings came in at $0.82, down from $1.04 last year. But
that was $0.10 better than the Wall Street estimate.
Newmont Mining (NEM), the gold stock, up $1.36. Yesterday it had third quarter
earnings out, $0.11, $0.07 above the Street estimate. Today Prudential upgraded
it from "sell" to "hold" and of course the Argentine crisis,
the instability is helping gold stocks these days.
The big loser, Rehabcare (RHB), tumbling $13.70. Third quarter earnings $0.44,
up from $0.36. But the company sees fourth quarter lower than the third, down
around $0.41 to $0.42. Merrill Lynch downgraded it from "buy" to "accumulate."
The stock traded as low as $23.
IT Group (ITX) in the waste management services field, down $1.29. A third
quarter loss reported today of $0.05 a share versus earnings of $0.21 and revenues
fell 4.2 percent. Standard & Poor's says "avoid" this stock.
Hispanic Broadcasting (HSP) down $2.11. Third quarter earnings $0.08, down
from last year's $0.12. Revenues dropped three to five percent.
And Dycom Industries (DY) off $1.29. It sees first quarter earnings of only
$0.13 to $0.15, about $0.05 to $0.07 below Wall Street expectations.
NASDAQ trading, a 32 point loss in the Index. Volume moved higher on the sell-off.
12 stocks up for every almost 23 down.
Microsoft (MSFT) fell $0.76, topping the active list.
Cisco (CSCO) up $0.15.
Intel (INTC) dropped $0.64.
QUALCOMM (QCOM) losing $3.61. First Boston cut 2002 estimates by $0.12, down
to $1.10 for QUALCOMM.
eBay (EBAY) managed to gain $0.89 after several days of losses.
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