SUSIE GHARIB: It's official: the US Economy is in recession. That's the word today from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official scorekeepers of US expansions and contractions. The panel of economists certified that the recession actually began in March, ending a decade of expansion. We have two reports: details of the panel's findings, and a closer look at the early returns from the first few days of the holiday shopping season. We begin with Darren Gersh in Washington.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It was September 11 and its aftermath that convinced the National Bureau of Economic Research that the economy has tipped into recession. But one member of the panel that officially dated this downturn says the terrorist attacks did not cause the recession.

JEFFREY FRANKEL, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH: This economic downturn has been led by business investment, particularly the information technology sector, and it has been accompanied by quite a dramatic loss of consumer confidence and business confidence. So I would say that is kind of the driving force of the recession.

GERSH: Industrial production peaked in September of 2000 and has since fallen close to 6 percent. NBER. says the recession began in March 2001 when employment turned down. Even so, economists say there are many reasons to expect this recession will be a mild one.

JOEL PRAKKEN, CHAIRMAN, MACROECONOMIC ADVISERS: A lot of people still at work, and their wages are going up. Their wages go further because prices are low, particularly energy prices. The Fed is cutting interest rates, so car loans, mortgage rate loans are down, and the federal government is pouring money into the system by cutting taxes and increasing spending.

GERSH: But President Bush today stepped up pressure on Democrats to make sure the federal government delivers the economic jolt the markets are expecting.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I hope Congress moves quickly on an economic stimulus package. The Senate needs to get a bill and get it into conference so we can resolve differences, and I can sign it before Christmas.

GERSH: So far, neither Democrats nor Republicans have shown much willingness to compromise. There is also growing optimism in financial markets that firming retail sales and consumer confidence show the economy may have already hit bottom. Analysts say all of that may make Congress less desperate to pass a stimulus package.

NANCY ROMAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, G-7 GROUP: Anyone who hasn't priced in some risk that this whole fiscal package blows up should take another look.

GERSH: While markets may see signs the recession is ending, politicians focus on the number of people losing their jobs. And firms usually don't start hiring until a recovery is well under way.

TOM GALLAGHER, POLITICAL ANALYST, ISI GROUP: So you can have a statistical recovery, a literal recovery in the economy, but if the unemployment rate is rising, voters don't feel it, and ultimately that is what politicians are responding to is what voters think, not what economists are telling them.

GERSH: By historical standards anyway, this recession, at age eight months, is already an old one, since the average recession lasts 11 months. Darren Gersh, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

11/26/01: Black Friday Leaves The Economy In The Recession Red

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: This is Suzanne Pratt in New York. Consumers crowded stores and shopping malls over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, but it looks like receipts at most retailers were hardly impressive. Sure, discounters like Wal*Mart (WMT) were able to lure frugal shoppers with promotions and must-have holiday items, and anything related to "Harry Potter" was a big seller. But other merchants, especially department and specialty stores, barely met low expectations, a trend that experts say is likely to continue. Still, while early indications point to a ho-hum holiday shopping season, some analysts say we might be surprised.

LINDA KRISTIANSEN, RETAIL ANALYST, UBS WARBURG: I'm looking for a decent, not great, but still a decent Christmas. I look at things like real wages, the fact that we've had a lot of fiscal stimulus; gasoline prices are down. There's a lot of good reasons.

PRATT: According to RCT Systems, foot traffic at the nation's malls over the weekend slipped more than 7 percent from last year, while the number of people shopping in department stores fell nearly 12 percent. Telecheck Services, a check approval firm, reported Black Friday sales rose a modest 2.4 percent over last year. Online retailer Yahoo! (YHOO) was one of the few bright spots. Its weekend sales surged 75 percent from the same period a year ago. And Pier 1 Imports (PIR) also bucked the lackluster trend, today raising its fiscal earnings forecast for the second time in a month. The home furnishing retailer said solid weekend sales are likely to translate into a 6 to 8 percent increase in November sales. And experts say home furnishing firms should continue to ring up respectable sales throughout the Christmas season.

BRIAN POSTOL, RETAIL ANALYST, A.G. EDWARDS: Instead of going out and doing a skiing trip, what have you, they're staying put and rallying around the families more. And within that, you're starting to see a shopping experience within home furnishings.

PRATT: There's no question that the Thanksgiving weekend is an important barometer of the holiday selling season. But experts caution against reading too much into early numbers. That's because the weekend accounts for only 10 percent of total holiday sales. Suzanne Pratt, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

11/26/01 Josh Feinman Of Deutsche Asset Management Reacts To The Recession

SUSIE GHARIB: Our guest tonight says that he was not surprised by today's official news that the U.S. economy is in a recession. He's Josh Feinman, Chief Economist with Deutsche Asset Management, and he joins us live from midtown Manhattan. Hi, Josh.

JOSHUA FEINMAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT: Hi, Susie. How are you?

GHARIB: I'm fine, thank you. As you know, we've had 10 recessions. This is recession number 10 since WWII. How would you characterize this one that we're in right now?

FEINMAN: Well, I think so far it's fairly mild. We, we're still in it. We don't know how severe it's going to get. But so far it's been on the mild side. The declines in most of the major indicators, employment, income, production and so forth, not as severe as in some of the a bit deeper recessions that we had earlier.

GHARIB: How long do you think it's going to last?

FEINMAN: I think a lot of that hinges on when people star feeling more comfortable and more confident about the geopolitical, military and terrorism situation. I think if confidence gradually starts to improve on that score, as maybe it has in the last couple of weeks, I think the economy can pull out of this early next year.

GHARIB: You said you see some encouraging signs in the economy. Now, we have some important reports coming out this week. We have consumer confidence, home sales, the Fed's beige book. What do you think that those reports are going to tell us about the economy and how consumers are feeling?

FEINMAN: I think they'll confirm the indications we've had over the last couple of weeks that, the great fears that we had after September 11 that the economy was really spiraling out of control on the downward side, maybe those fears are, we can put aside. The economy seems to be forming some sort of a bottom here, stabilizing a bit, and I think this week's reports will largely confirm that.

GHARIB: How do you think that the Federal Reserve will respond to these reports? It's going to be meeting in two weeks. It has to decide again on interest rates.

FEINMAN: I think the Fed is still in easing mode. I think they're going to throttle back the pace of easing, though. I think they're not going to move 50 basis points anymore. I think maybe they'll go a 25 basis point move this month because the risks to the economy are still to the downside.

GHARIB: Will it help? Will that 25 basis point cut help to boost the economy?

FEINMAN: Well, I don't know that that 25 basis point by itself will help. But I think we have to look at all the Fed has done, which is really a tremendous amount. They've lowered rates 450 basis points cumulatively since the beginning of the year. That is showing through in a broad spectrum of interest rates, mortgage rates and so forth, and I think that is working to help the economy and will continue to do so.

GHARIB: Josh, a lot of the economists who I have been talking to and also stock market strategists have been counting on not only for the economy to turn around, they've been counting on not only Fed policy, but also they've been looking for Congress to pass some kind of economic stimulus package. And you just heard in our report that we had at the top of the program that now there are doubts that Congress is going to actually do this. If there isn't any kind of economic stimulus package from Washington what does that mean for the revival of the economy?

FEINMAN: Well, it would certainly hurt. I myself have been banking on a fiscal stimulus package, a pretty significant one, maybe one and a half percent of GDP for next year, a combination of tax cuts and spending hikes combined with the Fed rate cuts to really galvanize this economy and help us out. If that fiscal package stalls, I think it could potentially delay, if not imperil, an early 2002 recovery.

GHARIB: Yes, well, that would be a very difficult situation for the stock market as well.

FEINMAN: Definitely.

GHARIB: Thank you very much, Josh.

FEINMAN: Thanks, Susie.

GHARIB: Appreciate you talking to us.

FEINMAN: Sure.

GHARIB: We've been speaking with Josh Feinman of Deutsche Asset Management.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

11/26/01: Hot Toys Are Leaving Retailers Cold

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Ask 4-year-old Ethan Paschka what's on his holiday wish list and his answer may surprise you.

ETHAN PASCHKA: I don't know.

EASTABROOK: But some toy industry watchers are not surprised. While Hasbro's (HAS) Monsters, Inc. merchandise, Mattel's (MAT) Harry Potter toys and Fischer Price's (ph) Rescue Heroes are reasonably popular, analysts say they aren't turning out to be the kind of must have toys Tickle Me Elmo was. That's bad news for Strombecker Corporation. The 125-year-old maker of low end toys says it gets pinched during the holidays when there are no hot selling toys on store shelves.

DANIEL SHURE, PRESIDENT & CEO, STROMBECKER CORPORATION: And fewer people are going into the toy stores or into the toy aisles of the discounters because there is nothing drawing them there.

EASTABROOK: In the past, toy manufacturers would count on one or two hot toys to carry them through the holiday season. But analysts say that proved to be a huge gamble because predicting what kids will put on their holiday wish lists is like predicting what the weather will be on Christmas day. A wrong bet often resulted in huge losses. Industry watchers say instead of trying to invent the next hit, toy companies are now focusing more on extending popular brands like Barbie and G.I. Joe.

PHILIP ZAHN, TOY ANALYST, FITCH: I think they're adapting to a new model where they try to generate steady growth year in and year out, hit more singles and doubles and so you don't have a spectacular year, but that's not followed by a terrible year.

EASTABROOK: That approach seems to satisfy investors. The stocks of both Hasbro and Mattel are near their highs for the year, even though neither appears to have a hot toy on the market.

HAYLEY KISSEL, TOY ANALYST, MERRILL LYNCH: There's a real back to basic theme that's emerging. And I'd say when there's a one product hit like a Tickle Me Elmo or a Furby that everybody wants, it's not good for the industry because it's a take it or leave it proposition.

EASTABROOK: Kissel predicts toy sales will be up about three percent this holiday season over last, not a spectacular year, but not a disappointing one either. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

11/26/01: Commentary: Who Really Is Hurting American Business?

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator suggests that before we blame foreign competition for hurting American businesses, we might want to take another look at the nature of that competition. Here's Walter Williams, Professor of Economics at George Mason University.

WALTER WILLIAMS, COMMENTARY: Businessmen often descend on Congress demanding restrictions on foreign imports. Why? To protect themselves against foreign businesses who have cheaper production costs due to lower wages and fewer labor and environmental regulations. They say they want fair trade and a level playing field. Protectionist arguments have emotional appeal, but little else. And it's not protection from foreign competitors that American businesses are asking for. Let's look at it. Say imported shoes sell for $50 and domestically made sell for $75. Americans are free to buy either pair. If most consumers buy the $50 pair, the manufacturer of the $75 pair might go out of business. Had consumers chosen otherwise, the outcome would be different. Here's the big question: if American shoe manufacturers go out of business, who is directly responsible? Surely, it's not the foreign shoe manufacturer. He has no power to force consumers to do anything. The villain is the American consumer, who could have purchased the $75 pair of shoes, but didn't. Thus, the challenge for American manufacturers and their workers is to find ways to protect themselves against not foreign manufacturers, but American consumers who prefer cheaper prices. The way to do that is to ask Congress to enact tariffs and quotas to deny Americans the cheaper priced option. In my book, that is mean and unseemly. I'm Walter Williams.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

11/26/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street opened moderately higher in a follow-through to Friday's solid upturn. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved to a 15-point gain by 10:00 a.m., while the NASDAQ Index posted a 26-point advance. The market then abruptly headed lower in reaction to that news that the US Economy went into recession in March. Some of the weakness was also linked to word that J.P. Morgan told its clients to reduce US Equity holdings from 60 to 50 percent of assets, while increasing bond and cash holdings from 20 to 25 percent. At 11:30 a.m. then, the Dow dipped to a 50-point loss and the NASDAQ Index was trying to hang on to a four-point gain. Persistent buying in chip stocks helped the NASDAQ firm very nicely in afternoon trading, and so did good gains by some of the online retail stocks on news of brisk sales late last week. This strength spread into some of the blue chips and helped the Dow Industrial Average bounce back with a closing gain of 23.04 points at 9982.75. The NASDAQ surged 38.03 points to 1941.23.

Big board volume topped 1 billion shares traded, advancing issues edged declining issues

The Dow Transport Index was down 9 points at 2525.85.

Utilities down almost 2 points at 287.21.

And the Closing Tick finished -809.

Standard & Poor's 500 up 7 points at 1157.42.

S&P 100 up almost 3 points at 596.24.

MidCap 400 up 5 1/2 points at 488.82.

CRB Bridge Futures Price Index

New York Stock Exchange Composite Index up 2 1/2 points at 588.23.

Value Line up 2 1/2 points at 357.66.

Russell2000 Small Cap up almost 3 points at 461.22.

And the Wilshire 5000 up 74 1/3 points at 10670.75.

The bond market tried to rally on that report that the nation is officially in recession, but sellers soon took the upper hand in the growing belief that this week's reports on consumer confidence and durable goods orders will show an improving economic scenario. The stock market's rebound from its early downturn also undermined bonds, as tax-free and corporates ended with 1/8 to 1/4-point losses, while Treasuries edged lower for the most part.

A loss of 4/32 in the 5-year notes

The 10-year notes down 1/32.

Actually a gain of in the 30-year bond of 2 /32

And a loss of excactly 3 3.4 on the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index

Well, the Dow made a nice comeback today and suddenly it's flirting with the 10,000 level again. Let's have a look at it in review, up 23 points, and the broader market higher by a 16 to 15 margin. 108 new yearly highs; only 32 new lows.

Enron (ENE) topped the active list on 36.3 million shares, down $0.73 as the company and Dynegy (DYN) are reportedly renegotiating their merger terms.

Lucent Technology (LU) down $0.35. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from "outperform" to just "neutral."

EMC (EMC) moved up $0.93. It got a positive mention on the Wall Street Week program on PBS last Friday.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) up $0.61. The company surpassed 32 million subscribers last week.

NorTel Networks (NT) a $0.07 gain, fifth in big board volume.

Nokia (NOK) moving up $1.06. I think that's a new recovery high since September 11.

And then G.E. (GE) gaining $0.25.

AT&T Wireless (AWE) up $0.32.

Pfizer (PFE) gained $0.25.

And tenth in volume was Citigroup ©, with a gain of $0.87 per share.

Edison International (EIX) moved up a $0.10 after Lehman Brothers upgraded it from "market perform" to a "strong buy" and also increased its price target from $17 to $19 a share.

Home Depot (HD) down $1.06. Heard On The Street column in today's "Wall Street Journal" suggests the company may have difficulty in keeping its current growth rate intact with the slowing economy.

Merck (MRK) was up $1.12. The FDA has granted another six month exclusivity for the company's hypertension drug called Prenavil.

Micron Technology (MU) moved up $1.86. Barron's Financial magazine carried some positive comments this week on that company.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD) up $1.65. Veteran Wall Street analyst Byron Ween is stepping up to Senior Investment Strategist for the company and then Steven Galbraith will be the Chief Investment Officer for U.S. equity research.

IndyMac Bancorp (NDE) moved up $1.24 after Goldman Sachs upgraded it from "market outperform" to a "trading buy."

Frontline Limited (FRO) gained $1.15. The company reportedly has sold three very large crude oil carrier vessels for a $6 million profit.

Wipro (WIT) up $4.55 on news the company and Geometric Software Solutions are in a pact to provide I.T. services to industrial markets in the United States, Europe and Japan.

Continental Airlines (CAL) up $2.01. No specific news today. Keep in mind, it was one of the few airlines to turn a third quarter profit and chartists tell me the stock has a very clear cut bottoming pattern.

Teradyne (TER) up $2.05. Resenex Communications (ph) has selected the company's catalyst test system for testing its upcoming five gigahertz chip set.

CANTV (VNT), this is Venezuela's largest telecom company, down $2.06. The company is going to buy back only 20 percent of the 53 million American Depositary shares that were tendered at a price of $30. I think a little disappointment with the low pro rata percentage.

Constellation A (STZ) down $1.95. The company reportedly is bidding $1.9 billion to buy Carling. That's England's top brewer and that appears to be the high big.

Nasdaq trading, a gain of just over 38 points, 2 percent. And look at the volume, more than triple what it was in Friday's abbreviated session. 20 stocks up for every 15 lower.

Intel (INTC) topped the active list, up $0.81. The company has developed a new transistor which makes semiconductors much faster with much lower power c