12/06/01: The
Outlook For Intel
SUSIE GHARIB: Some encouraging news this afternoon from the world's largest
maker of computer chips. In a mid-quarter update, Intel told analysts after the
market close that it expects fourth-quarter revenues to come in at the high end
of its previous targets, or possibly exceed as much as $6.9 billion. Powering
the higher sales: unexpectedly high demand for Intel's Pentium 4 computer chips.
In after-hours trading, Intel stock rose fractionally. The stock lost $0.45 to
close at $34.16 in regular trading. Also, rival chip maker Advanced Micro Devices
(AMD) upping its revenue predictions, saying that growth will be 10 percent or
better over the third quarter. Joining us live now from San Francisco to talk
more about Intel and AMD is Eric Rothdeutsch, semiconductor analyst with Robertson
Stephens. Hi, Eric.
ERIC ROTHDEUTSCH, INTEL ANALYST, ROBERTSON STEPHENS: Hi, Susie.
GHARIB: Let's fist talk a little bit about Intel. Was the update as expected
or did you hear any surprises from management?
ROTHDEUTSCH: I think it was as expected. We were expecting the company to guide
to the higher end of the range. They're now saying the higher end of the range
or a little better, so it's looking like a very good quarter for Intel.
GHARIB: Now you raised your estimate for earnings for the fourth quarter and
for the year and for next year on Intel. Do you think Intel can sustain this momentum?
ROTHDEUTSCH: That's the question. We do think Intel is benefiting from the
transition of the Pentium 4 processor, certainly seeing a seasonal Q4 - a more
normal seasonal Q4. We're still somewhat cautious about overall PC demand, we
think that this is still going to be a down year for PC's, but certainly next
year we do expect for there to be improvement in PC demand.
GHARIB: And AMD today came out with some pretty strong numbers, what was your
reaction there?
ROTHDEUTSCH: I think AMD certainly was a surprise for the markets. We were
very positive on the company earlier this week, but I think there was an expectation
that AMD was going to suffer at the hands of Intel. But clearly there is very
strong value performance proposition for the AMD processor, the Athlon XP, versus
the Pentium 4. So AMD also is benefiting from what is better seasonality this
quarter.
GHARIB: So how encouraged are you between what Intel told analysts and what
AMD said about the marketplace?
ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we think it's - this is encouraging for the fourth quarter,
that the consumer has not closed his or her wallet and is viewing a personal computer
as an item that they'd like to buy this Christmas season. We're still somewhat
cautious, though, we think corporate spending still is not showing much improvement.
We think this is still going to be a down quarter for IT spending, but it certainly
is the first encouraging signs we've seen in a while.
GHARIB: What about in terms of the Pentium 4 at Intel, how is that transition
going from the Pentium 3 to Pentium 4?
ROTHDEUTSCH: It's actually going faster than what Intel had expected. The Pentium
4 is driving into the mainstream very quickly, it does offer much faster performance
over the Pentium 3. And there's a large channel to fill for PC's for the Pentium
4. And Intel's struggling to keep up with demand right now.
GHARIB: Is it keeping up with demand, or are they having any production bottlenecks?
ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we also think they're having some production issues. It's
a much faster ramp. They've basically gone from about 2 million units to roughly
16 million units in three quarters, very fast production ramp. And whenever you
have that kind of speed of ramp, there's always some sort of production issues.
And Intel is contending with that. But in spite of some of the issues, they're
still doing very well in shipping out the units.
GHARIB: Eric, we want to talk you a little about the stocks of both of these
companies, AMD and Intel. On Intel you have a market perform rating and on AMD
a buy. Tell us about your view quickly on both of these.
ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we think Intel, the stock has certainly performed very well
up until now, we think it's going to be somewhat of a challenge for the stock
to be a strong performer moving forward. It's really a rather expensive stock.
AMD, on the other hand, AMD is one of the least expensive semiconductor companies
going, and it's performing well now in this environment. So we think there's more
upside to AMD stock.
GHARIB: What do you see the target on AMD, real quickly?
ROTHDEUTSCH: Twenty-dollar target on AMD.
GHARIB: OK, Eric, thanks a lot. We appreciate it.
ROTHDEUTSCH: Thank you.
GHARIB: And we've been speaking with Eric Rothdeutsch of Robertson Stephens,
live from San Francisco.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
12/06/01: The House Votes To Give President Bush Fast
Track Trade Status
SUSIE GHARIB: On Capitol Hill late this afternoon, the House of Representatives,
by a one-vote margin, approved a bill to give the president so-called "fast
track trade authority." It's been almost eight years since a president has
had the power to send trade deals to Congress for an up or down vote. And as Darren
Gersh reports, it's a hot issue in Washington.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: An hour before the House
began debating trade negotiating authority, business lobbyists were roaming the
halls of Capitol Hill and gathering for a last-minute strategy session. Their
message to wavering members of Congress: this vote is crucial to the health of
the U.S. economy.
JOHN CASTELLANI, PRESIDENT, THE BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE: There are 130 trade agreements
that have been negotiated over the last few years of which the United States is
only part of three, so we're falling behind.
GERSH: Leading Democrats rallied against the bill, siding with workers who
say they've been hurt by foreign competition.
SHIRLEY CHAPMAN, LAID OFF PILLOWTEX WORKER: We are losing our jobs, and when
we lose, our families lose, and our communities lose, and in the end our country
will lose.
GERSH: Under the trade promotion authority legislation, also called fast track,
Congress agrees to vote on trade agreements negotiated by the president without
making changes. Opponents say the bill does little to protect the environment
and worker rights.
REP. DAVID BONIOR, MINORITY WHIP: Our trade agreements should promote human
rights and democracy. They should improve working conditions across the world,
and they should protect our environment and the quality of life.
GERSH: To win over last-minute votes, House Republican leaders agreed to spend
$20 billion to help workers who have lost their jobs since the recession began
in March. With a close vote expected, the speaker of the House took the unusual
step of coming to the floor to speak for the bill himself, warning defeat would
send a terrible message to the world.
REP. DENNIS HASTERT, HOUSE SPEAKER: We say to the world that the Congress is
not interested in promoting trade. We say to the world that we fight a war around
this world on terrorism that we would rather retreat to splendid isolationism
than engage in the world economy. That is the wrong choice.
GERSH: In the end, the House of Representatives agreed, passing trade promotion
authority by just one vote. The legislation is expected to have an easier time
in the Senate. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
12/06/01: What's Behind The Gap's Gap In Sales?
PAUL KANGAS: The nation's retailers were out with same store sales for November
and holiday sales are looking anything but jolly. Discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT)
had the best gains. But specialty retailers and department stores again posted
falling sales. Among the worst performers was The Gap (GPS). It suffered a 25
percent drop in November sales. Suzanne Pratt takes a closer look at what's in
store for Gap.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: For most us retailers,
Christmas 2001 is expected to be pretty ho hum. But for Gap, this holiday season
is likely to be downright nasty. Less than a month after reporting its first quarterly
loss in more than a decade, Gap, which also owns Old Navy and Banana Republic,
said its fourth quarter could be "considerably worse" than its third.
In addition to the quarterly warning, Gap said its November sales were down 25
percent, its most dismal showing all year. Analysts, in part, blame merchandise
that's too trendy, or in some cases has simply missed.
DANA TELSEY, RETAIL ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: Merchandising drives an apparel
retailer's sales and profits. The lack of merchandising that's coordinated that's
confused its customers are part of the issues at the Gap.
PRATT: To counteract its fashion failures, company management has said it will
return to its core Gap look by spring: classic clothes that in the 1990s made
Gap the nation's largest specialty retailer. But experts say Gap is also coping
with too much real estate.
EMME KOZLOFF, SENIOR RETAIL ANALYST, SANFORD C. BERSTEIN: The bottom line is
when you have this high level of square footage, it's incredibly difficult to
comp. And you add a bad economy and bad merchandise on top of it, and, you know,
you really run into a tough situation to get yourself out of.
PRATT: Gap's troubles are well reflected in the company's stock. Since hitting
a high of nearly $35 in May, the shares have since become unfashionable, plummeting
nearly 60 percent, and some analysts say despite the lower price, investors should
remain cautious.
KOZLOFF: When you look at the stock, it's actually not cheap, because while
the stock has dropped, earnings have collapsed. So on a P.E. basis, you're looking
at a stock that's trading at closer to a market multiple, not something that normal
investors would get really cheery about.
PRATT: Before investors can get at all cheery about the outlook for Gap, experts
say there need to be some dramatic changes. In particular, they're looking for
a restructuring of the company's merchandise team as well as the right clothes
on store racks. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
12/06/01: Kevin McCormally's Tax Tips-Retirement Planning
SUSIE GHARIB: If you want a way to save money on your tax bill now, look toward
the future. In our Tax Tips segment tonight we look at how good retirement planning
can help you keep more of your cash. Here's Kevin McCormally, Editorial Director
of "Kiplinger's Personal Finance."
KEVIN McCORMALLY, EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, "KIPLINGER'S PERSONAL FINANCE":
2001 has been a lousy year for a lot of retirement nest eggs. Whether your money
is in an IRA or a 401(k) or a 403(b), you may well be ending the year with less
than you started, even if you've been making regular contributions. On the bright
side, starting next year you'll be able to contribute more to your accounts. There's
even a catch up contribution, an extra $1,000 that can go into 401(k)s and an
extra $500 for IRAs for folks aged 50 and older. But you don't have to wait until
2002 to make up for some of the damage the market has caused. Consider bumping
up your 401(k) contribution for December. It's guaranteed to boost your retirement
savings and cut your tax bill at the same time. Because contributions escape both
federal and state income taxes, adding $1,000 to your account might cost just
$675, or even less, depending on your tax bracket. And if your employer has a
50 percent match, your $675 out of pocket would put an extra $1,500 into your
account. Need more incentive? Just think about how that money will grow inside
the tax shelter. If it earns at an average of 10 percent for 20 years, your $675
will add better than $10,000 to your nest egg. Got 30 years? You're looking at
an extra $26,000, all from that $675 you pass up this month. The potential is
so great that you might want to consider dipping into savings if necessary to
make up for that drop in take home pay in order to squirrel away more in your
retirement. For 2001, the most you can contribute to a 401(k) is $10,500. If you're
below the limit, check with your plan administrator right away to see how to beef
up your year end contribution. I'm Kevin McCormally.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
12/06/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: After sprinting into sharply higher ground over the last two days,
the stock market took a little breather as trading opened today. But the Dow Industrial
Average gave up only about 2 points a half an hour into the session, and the NASDAQ
Index actually moved up 1 point. The market's resilience to profit taking bolstered
bullish confidence, and so did the report that durable goods orders jumped a brisk
7.1 percent in October, a figure which reinforced the growing belief that the
U.S. economy has seen the worst of its slump and is now on the mend. In a stair
step upturn then, the Dow moved to a 53-point gain by 1:00 p.m., While the NASDAQ
Index posted a 19-point advance. There was not enough bullish fervor to extend
the rally in afternoon trading as many investors turned cautious ahead of tomorrow's
anxiously awaited November employment report. As a result, the Dow Industrial
Average faded and posted a closing loss of 15.15 points, putting it at 10,099.14.
And the NASDAQ Composite had its closing gain trimmed down to 7.43 at 2054.27,
but a gain nonetheless.
Trading volume well down from yesterday at 1.46 billion shares. And just about
30 million more shares of down volume than up volume.
The Dow Transport Index gained nearly 7 points.
Utilities down 4 1/3 points.
The Closing Tick modestly bullish at +470.
Standard & Poor's 500 down exactly 3 1/4 points.
Nearly a 1-point drop on the 100.
The MidCap 400 managed to gain 1.76.
Bridge Futures Price Index down 0.74.
Nearly a 1 1/2-loss on the New York Composite.
But a gain of just over 1 point in the Value Line Index.
Russell2000 Small Cap up 7 - 2.81, I should say.
And the broadly based Wilshire 5000 was down about 12 1/3 points.
Bond prices tumbled for the second straight day on more evidence of a recovery
in the economy such as today's reports showing that October durable goods orders
shot up 7.1 percent, while the news that weekly jobless benefit claims fell by
18,000. That, along with the stock market's stability and further progress in
the Afghan War denied bonds of any of that safe haven buying support. So tax free
and corporates fell another full point to as much as a point a half, and the Treasury
market also plunged across the board again.
The 5-year notes down 17/32.
The 10-year note down 26/32.
The 30-year bond dropped 1 19/32.
The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index off 15.18.
The Dow fared pretty well considering what it's done over the previous two
sessions, down only 15 points, and the broader market actually higher by 35 issues.
140 new yearly highs, only 32 new lows.
Enron (ENE) topped the active list again today on 49.6 million shares, a lot
of volume but not much money at this price. The stock dropped 33.7 percent with
that $0.34 loss today. A lot of lawsuits.
Lucent Technologies (LU) edged up $0.14.
AT&T Wireless (AWE) lost a $0.05 a share.
NorTel Networks (NT) moving up $0.48.
And then Motorola (MOT), fifth in volume, was down $0.59.
AOL Time Warner (AOL) dropped $1.08.
Compaq Computer (CPQ) losing $0.54.
General Electric (GE) moved up $0.21.
EMC (EMC) edged up $0.03.
And there you see The Gap (GPS) up $0.62 despite that 25 percent drop in November
same store sales and actually Standard & Poor's downgraded the stock to "sell"
and yet it held in there rather firmly.
Best Buy (BBY) down $3.83. Now, this company sees third quarter earnings coming
in at $0.36 a share. That's $0.02 above the Street estimate, well up from $0.27
a year ago. But its November same store sales were lower than expected, a gain
of only 1.6 percent. That's what hurt the stock.
Dana Corporation (DCN) in the auto parts business up $1.11. Lehman Brothers
upgraded it from "market perform" to a "buy."
ExxonMobil (XOM) dropping $1.55. New York oil futures in the month of January
dropped $0.95 a barrel down to $18.54.
Family Dollar Stores (FDO) off $2.25. The company sees first quarter earnings
just in line with the Street estimate at $0.29 a share and is also predicting
flat second quarter earnings.
The New York Times (NYT) stock down $2.10. The company sees fourth quarter
earnings at $0.48 to $0.52, well below the Street consensus of $0.59 a share.
And Radioshack (RSH) moved up $1.71 even though its November same store sales
were down three percent. But the company is comfortable with fourth quarter Wall
Street earnings estimates of $0.66 a share.
AmeriCredit (ACF) had a big day on the up side, up $4.78. A number of market
analysts link that strength partly to short covering. And, of course, a rebound
in the economy could help this company's business, which is auto financing.
Turkcell (TKC) up $2.27. The Turkish stock market jumped over six percent today
on hopes that the Afghan war will not spread anywhere near the country of Turkey.
And also a Turkish court ruled in favor of this company regarding cell phone roaming
matters.
Circuit City Stores (CC) up $1.86. The company says third quarter sales were
up six percent and although November same store sales dropped four percent, that
wasn't as bad as expected.
Fleetwood Enterprises (FLE), which makes recreational vehicles, down $2.47.
The stock weak, apparently getting a negative impact from an exchange offer going
on between existing convertible debt and new convertible debt.
CKE Restaurants (CKR) down $1.15. The company cut its third quarter loss to
only $0.03 from a $0.58 loss a year ago. But a lot of people hoping for a profit
didn't quite get it.
And BJ's Wholesale (BJ) down $3.82, disappointment over a drop of 3/10 of a
percent in its November same store sales.
Nasdaq trading, a gain of nearly 7 1/2 points. Good resilience there after
the big gains of the previous two days. Volume dropped 2.2 billion shares, well
down from yesterday. 20 stocks up for every 15 lower.
Intel (INTC) topped the active list and after hours it was trading as high
as $0.60 above that closing price there.
Microsoft (MSFT) moved up $0.55.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) gained a $0.25 a |