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button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: The Outlook For Intel
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: The House Votes To Give President Bush Fast Track Trade Status
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: What's Behind The Gap's Gap In Sales?
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: Kevin McCormally's Tax Tips-Retirement Planning .
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/06/01: Market Stats
12/06/01: The Outlook For Intel

SUSIE GHARIB: Some encouraging news this afternoon from the world's largest maker of computer chips. In a mid-quarter update, Intel told analysts after the market close that it expects fourth-quarter revenues to come in at the high end of its previous targets, or possibly exceed as much as $6.9 billion. Powering the higher sales: unexpectedly high demand for Intel's Pentium 4 computer chips. In after-hours trading, Intel stock rose fractionally. The stock lost $0.45 to close at $34.16 in regular trading. Also, rival chip maker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) upping its revenue predictions, saying that growth will be 10 percent or better over the third quarter. Joining us live now from San Francisco to talk more about Intel and AMD is Eric Rothdeutsch, semiconductor analyst with Robertson Stephens. Hi, Eric.

ERIC ROTHDEUTSCH, INTEL ANALYST, ROBERTSON STEPHENS: Hi, Susie.

GHARIB: Let's fist talk a little bit about Intel. Was the update as expected or did you hear any surprises from management?

ROTHDEUTSCH: I think it was as expected. We were expecting the company to guide to the higher end of the range. They're now saying the higher end of the range or a little better, so it's looking like a very good quarter for Intel.

GHARIB: Now you raised your estimate for earnings for the fourth quarter and for the year and for next year on Intel. Do you think Intel can sustain this momentum?

ROTHDEUTSCH: That's the question. We do think Intel is benefiting from the transition of the Pentium 4 processor, certainly seeing a seasonal Q4 - a more normal seasonal Q4. We're still somewhat cautious about overall PC demand, we think that this is still going to be a down year for PC's, but certainly next year we do expect for there to be improvement in PC demand.

GHARIB: And AMD today came out with some pretty strong numbers, what was your reaction there?

ROTHDEUTSCH: I think AMD certainly was a surprise for the markets. We were very positive on the company earlier this week, but I think there was an expectation that AMD was going to suffer at the hands of Intel. But clearly there is very strong value performance proposition for the AMD processor, the Athlon XP, versus the Pentium 4. So AMD also is benefiting from what is better seasonality this quarter.

GHARIB: So how encouraged are you between what Intel told analysts and what AMD said about the marketplace?

ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we think it's - this is encouraging for the fourth quarter, that the consumer has not closed his or her wallet and is viewing a personal computer as an item that they'd like to buy this Christmas season. We're still somewhat cautious, though, we think corporate spending still is not showing much improvement. We think this is still going to be a down quarter for IT spending, but it certainly is the first encouraging signs we've seen in a while.

GHARIB: What about in terms of the Pentium 4 at Intel, how is that transition going from the Pentium 3 to Pentium 4?

ROTHDEUTSCH: It's actually going faster than what Intel had expected. The Pentium 4 is driving into the mainstream very quickly, it does offer much faster performance over the Pentium 3. And there's a large channel to fill for PC's for the Pentium 4. And Intel's struggling to keep up with demand right now.

GHARIB: Is it keeping up with demand, or are they having any production bottlenecks?

ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we also think they're having some production issues. It's a much faster ramp. They've basically gone from about 2 million units to roughly 16 million units in three quarters, very fast production ramp. And whenever you have that kind of speed of ramp, there's always some sort of production issues. And Intel is contending with that. But in spite of some of the issues, they're still doing very well in shipping out the units.

GHARIB: Eric, we want to talk you a little about the stocks of both of these companies, AMD and Intel. On Intel you have a market perform rating and on AMD a buy. Tell us about your view quickly on both of these.

ROTHDEUTSCH: Well, we think Intel, the stock has certainly performed very well up until now, we think it's going to be somewhat of a challenge for the stock to be a strong performer moving forward. It's really a rather expensive stock. AMD, on the other hand, AMD is one of the least expensive semiconductor companies going, and it's performing well now in this environment. So we think there's more upside to AMD stock.

GHARIB: What do you see the target on AMD, real quickly?

ROTHDEUTSCH: Twenty-dollar target on AMD.

GHARIB: OK, Eric, thanks a lot. We appreciate it.

ROTHDEUTSCH: Thank you.

GHARIB: And we've been speaking with Eric Rothdeutsch of Robertson Stephens, live from San Francisco.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



12/06/01: The House Votes To Give President Bush Fast Track Trade Status

SUSIE GHARIB: On Capitol Hill late this afternoon, the House of Representatives, by a one-vote margin, approved a bill to give the president so-called "fast track trade authority." It's been almost eight years since a president has had the power to send trade deals to Congress for an up or down vote. And as Darren Gersh reports, it's a hot issue in Washington.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: An hour before the House began debating trade negotiating authority, business lobbyists were roaming the halls of Capitol Hill and gathering for a last-minute strategy session. Their message to wavering members of Congress: this vote is crucial to the health of the U.S. economy.

JOHN CASTELLANI, PRESIDENT, THE BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE: There are 130 trade agreements that have been negotiated over the last few years of which the United States is only part of three, so we're falling behind.

GERSH: Leading Democrats rallied against the bill, siding with workers who say they've been hurt by foreign competition.

SHIRLEY CHAPMAN, LAID OFF PILLOWTEX WORKER: We are losing our jobs, and when we lose, our families lose, and our communities lose, and in the end our country will lose.

GERSH: Under the trade promotion authority legislation, also called fast track, Congress agrees to vote on trade agreements negotiated by the president without making changes. Opponents say the bill does little to protect the environment and worker rights.

REP. DAVID BONIOR, MINORITY WHIP: Our trade agreements should promote human rights and democracy. They should improve working conditions across the world, and they should protect our environment and the quality of life.

GERSH: To win over last-minute votes, House Republican leaders agreed to spend $20 billion to help workers who have lost their jobs since the recession began in March. With a close vote expected, the speaker of the House took the unusual step of coming to the floor to speak for the bill himself, warning defeat would send a terrible message to the world.

REP. DENNIS HASTERT, HOUSE SPEAKER: We say to the world that the Congress is not interested in promoting trade. We say to the world that we fight a war around this world on terrorism that we would rather retreat to splendid isolationism than engage in the world economy. That is the wrong choice.

GERSH: In the end, the House of Representatives agreed, passing trade promotion authority by just one vote. The legislation is expected to have an easier time in the Senate. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/06/01: What's Behind The Gap's Gap In Sales?

PAUL KANGAS: The nation's retailers were out with same store sales for November and holiday sales are looking anything but jolly. Discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT) had the best gains. But specialty retailers and department stores again posted falling sales. Among the worst performers was The Gap (GPS). It suffered a 25 percent drop in November sales. Suzanne Pratt takes a closer look at what's in store for Gap.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: For most us retailers, Christmas 2001 is expected to be pretty ho hum. But for Gap, this holiday season is likely to be downright nasty. Less than a month after reporting its first quarterly loss in more than a decade, Gap, which also owns Old Navy and Banana Republic, said its fourth quarter could be "considerably worse" than its third. In addition to the quarterly warning, Gap said its November sales were down 25 percent, its most dismal showing all year. Analysts, in part, blame merchandise that's too trendy, or in some cases has simply missed.

DANA TELSEY, RETAIL ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: Merchandising drives an apparel retailer's sales and profits. The lack of merchandising that's coordinated that's confused its customers are part of the issues at the Gap.

PRATT: To counteract its fashion failures, company management has said it will return to its core Gap look by spring: classic clothes that in the 1990s made Gap the nation's largest specialty retailer. But experts say Gap is also coping with too much real estate.

EMME KOZLOFF, SENIOR RETAIL ANALYST, SANFORD C. BERSTEIN: The bottom line is when you have this high level of square footage, it's incredibly difficult to comp. And you add a bad economy and bad merchandise on top of it, and, you know, you really run into a tough situation to get yourself out of.

PRATT: Gap's troubles are well reflected in the company's stock. Since hitting a high of nearly $35 in May, the shares have since become unfashionable, plummeting nearly 60 percent, and some analysts say despite the lower price, investors should remain cautious.

KOZLOFF: When you look at the stock, it's actually not cheap, because while the stock has dropped, earnings have collapsed. So on a P.E. basis, you're looking at a stock that's trading at closer to a market multiple, not something that normal investors would get really cheery about.

PRATT: Before investors can get at all cheery about the outlook for Gap, experts say there need to be some dramatic changes. In particular, they're looking for a restructuring of the company's merchandise team as well as the right clothes on store racks. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/06/01: Kevin McCormally's Tax Tips-Retirement Planning

SUSIE GHARIB: If you want a way to save money on your tax bill now, look toward the future. In our Tax Tips segment tonight we look at how good retirement planning can help you keep more of your cash. Here's Kevin McCormally, Editorial Director of "Kiplinger's Personal Finance."

KEVIN McCORMALLY, EDITORIAL DIRECTOR, "KIPLINGER'S PERSONAL FINANCE": 2001 has been a lousy year for a lot of retirement nest eggs. Whether your money is in an IRA or a 401(k) or a 403(b), you may well be ending the year with less than you started, even if you've been making regular contributions. On the bright side, starting next year you'll be able to contribute more to your accounts. There's even a catch up contribution, an extra $1,000 that can go into 401(k)s and an extra $500 for IRAs for folks aged 50 and older. But you don't have to wait until 2002 to make up for some of the damage the market has caused. Consider bumping up your 401(k) contribution for December. It's guaranteed to boost your retirement savings and cut your tax bill at the same time. Because contributions escape both federal and state income taxes, adding $1,000 to your account might cost just $675, or even less, depending on your tax bracket. And if your employer has a 50 percent match, your $675 out of pocket would put an extra $1,500 into your account. Need more incentive? Just think about how that money will grow inside the tax shelter. If it earns at an average of 10 percent for 20 years, your $675 will add better than $10,000 to your nest egg. Got 30 years? You're looking at an extra $26,000, all from that $675 you pass up this month. The potential is so great that you might want to consider dipping into savings if necessary to make up for that drop in take home pay in order to squirrel away more in your retirement. For 2001, the most you can contribute to a 401(k) is $10,500. If you're below the limit, check with your plan administrator right away to see how to beef up your year end contribution. I'm Kevin McCormally.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.




12/06/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: After sprinting into sharply higher ground over the last two days, the stock market took a little breather as trading opened today. But the Dow Industrial Average gave up only about 2 points a half an hour into the session, and the NASDAQ Index actually moved up 1 point. The market's resilience to profit taking bolstered bullish confidence, and so did the report that durable goods orders jumped a brisk 7.1 percent in October, a figure which reinforced the growing belief that the U.S. economy has seen the worst of its slump and is now on the mend. In a stair step upturn then, the Dow moved to a 53-point gain by 1:00 p.m., While the NASDAQ Index posted a 19-point advance. There was not enough bullish fervor to extend the rally in afternoon trading as many investors turned cautious ahead of tomorrow's anxiously awaited November employment report. As a result, the Dow Industrial Average faded and posted a closing loss of 15.15 points, putting it at 10,099.14. And the NASDAQ Composite had its closing gain trimmed down to 7.43 at 2054.27, but a gain nonetheless.

Trading volume well down from yesterday at 1.46 billion shares. And just about 30 million more shares of down volume than up volume.

The Dow Transport Index gained nearly 7 points.

Utilities down 4 1/3 points.

The Closing Tick modestly bullish at +470.

Standard & Poor's 500 down exactly 3 1/4 points.

Nearly a 1-point drop on the 100.

The MidCap 400 managed to gain 1.76.

Bridge Futures Price Index down 0.74.

Nearly a 1 1/2-loss on the New York Composite.

But a gain of just over 1 point in the Value Line Index.

Russell2000 Small Cap up 7 - 2.81, I should say.

And the broadly based Wilshire 5000 was down about 12 1/3 points.

Bond prices tumbled for the second straight day on more evidence of a recovery in the economy such as today's reports showing that October durable goods orders shot up 7.1 percent, while the news that weekly jobless benefit claims fell by 18,000. That, along with the stock market's stability and further progress in the Afghan War denied bonds of any of that safe haven buying support. So tax free and corporates fell another full point to as much as a point a half, and the Treasury market also plunged across the board again.

The 5-year notes down 17/32.

The 10-year note down 26/32.

The 30-year bond dropped 1 19/32.

The Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index off 15.18.

The Dow fared pretty well considering what it's done over the previous two sessions, down only 15 points, and the broader market actually higher by 35 issues. 140 new yearly highs, only 32 new lows.

Enron (ENE) topped the active list again today on 49.6 million shares, a lot of volume but not much money at this price. The stock dropped 33.7 percent with that $0.34 loss today. A lot of lawsuits.

Lucent Technologies (LU) edged up $0.14.

AT&T Wireless (AWE) lost a $0.05 a share.

NorTel Networks (NT) moving up $0.48.

And then Motorola (MOT), fifth in volume, was down $0.59.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) dropped $1.08.

Compaq Computer (CPQ) losing $0.54.

General Electric (GE) moved up $0.21.

EMC (EMC) edged up $0.03.

And there you see The Gap (GPS) up $0.62 despite that 25 percent drop in November same store sales and actually Standard & Poor's downgraded the stock to "sell" and yet it held in there rather firmly.

Best Buy (BBY) down $3.83. Now, this company sees third quarter earnings coming in at $0.36 a share. That's $0.02 above the Street estimate, well up from $0.27 a year ago. But its November same store sales were lower than expected, a gain of only 1.6 percent. That's what hurt the stock.

Dana Corporation (DCN) in the auto parts business up $1.11. Lehman Brothers upgraded it from "market perform" to a "buy."

ExxonMobil (XOM) dropping $1.55. New York oil futures in the month of January dropped $0.95 a barrel down to $18.54.

Family Dollar Stores (FDO) off $2.25. The company sees first quarter earnings just in line with the Street estimate at $0.29 a share and is also predicting flat second quarter earnings.

The New York Times (NYT) stock down $2.10. The company sees fourth quarter earnings at $0.48 to $0.52, well below the Street consensus of $0.59 a share.

And Radioshack (RSH) moved up $1.71 even though its November same store sales were down three percent. But the company is comfortable with fourth quarter Wall Street earnings estimates of $0.66 a share.

AmeriCredit (ACF) had a big day on the up side, up $4.78. A number of market analysts link that strength partly to short covering. And, of course, a rebound in the economy could help this company's business, which is auto financing.

Turkcell (TKC) up $2.27. The Turkish stock market jumped over six percent today on hopes that the Afghan war will not spread anywhere near the country of Turkey. And also a Turkish court ruled in favor of this company regarding cell phone roaming matters.

Circuit City Stores (CC) up $1.86. The company says third quarter sales were up six percent and although November same store sales dropped four percent, that wasn't as bad as expected.

Fleetwood Enterprises (FLE), which makes recreational vehicles, down $2.47. The stock weak, apparently getting a negative impact from an exchange offer going on between existing convertible debt and new convertible debt.

CKE Restaurants (CKR) down $1.15. The company cut its third quarter loss to only $0.03 from a $0.58 loss a year ago. But a lot of people hoping for a profit didn't quite get it.

And BJ's Wholesale (BJ) down $3.82, disappointment over a drop of 3/10 of a percent in its November same store sales.

Nasdaq trading, a gain of nearly 7 1/2 points. Good resilience there after the big gains of the previous two days. Volume dropped 2.2 billion shares, well down from yesterday. 20 stocks up for every 15 lower.

Intel (INTC) topped the active list and after hours it was trading as high as $0.60 above that closing price there.

Microsoft (MSFT) moved up $0.55.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) gained a $0.25 a

 

 

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