SUSIE GHARIB: The Federal Reserve thinks the economy still needs help. It cut interest rates for the eleventh time this year. The central bank reduced rates today by a quarter point in an attempt to keep the economy from sinking further into recession. As Erika Miller reports, now the debate on Wall Street is whether or not the Fed is finished cutting interest rates.

ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Wall Street was betting on a quarter-point cut in rates, and the Federal Reserve did not disappoint. The Federal Funds rate now stands at 1.75 percent, its lowest level in 40 years. The central bank also cut the discount rate by the same amount, leaving the rate at 1.25 percent.

JOSHUA FEINMAN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT: The economy is still quite weak. In fact, the latest signs are the labor markets continuing to deteriorate, business investment is still falling. There's still a lot of weakness out there.

MILLER: But it was the statement accompanying the decision that stole the spotlight on Wall Street. In it, the Fed said, quote, "the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future." But the Fed did acknowledge that demand shows preliminary and tentative signs of stabilizing. Many on Wall Street are betting that the Fed will cut rates again at its next meeting January 29 and 30.

RICHARD BERNER, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, MORGAN STANLEY: The bottom line is the Fed clearly does not see this as the absolute end. And they obviously want to leave the door open and leave their options open, given the uncertainty surrounding the economic environment.

MILLER: But most analysts say after January, that will probably be it in the way of cuts. In fact, Fed watchers are already starting to predict when the Fed will reverse course and start hiking interest rates.

FEINMAN: They will not likely rush to tighten until they are really convinced that the recovery is on a solid, self-sustained basis. And only then, maybe by the middle of the year or so, will they start to contemplate returning rates to a more neutral level.

MILLER: What Wall Street wants most is proof that the Fed's interest rate cuts have been working. In particular, investors want signs that the worst is over and corporate earnings are once again rising. Erika Miller, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/11/01: The White House's New Proposal Stimulates Movement On The Stimulus Package

SUSIE GHARIB: A breakthrough today on that hotly debated economic stimulus package. The White House put forward a new proposal aimed at breaking the deadlock, and that got key lawmakers talking again. Darren Gersh reports.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The first sign of serious movement on an economic stimulus package came this morning. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill cut short a public appearance to head for a meeting with the president.

PAUL O'NEILL, TREASURY SECRETARY: So I hope you'll forgive me. I think my time across the street is well spent. We need to get this done.

GERSH: The president told O'Neill to reach out to Congress and get a stimulus package done before lawmakers leave for the year. Soon after, O'Neill was on the phone to key senators explaining a new White House stimulus proposal to speed up an already-planned reduction in the 27 percent income tax bracket to 25 percent, making the lower rate effective next year. The administration dropped plans to accelerate rate cuts for upper income taxpayers. The White House also agreed to expand unemployment and health care assistance to laid off workers, and dropped plans to refund $25 billion to corporations paying the Alternative Minimum Tax. The proposals are similar to those floated by House Majority Leader Richard Armey. The news prompted Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle to say he now saw the makings of a deal, but with one major change: instead of accelerating income tax cuts, Democrats endorsed a one-time rebate of Social Security payroll taxes.

SEN. TOM DASCHLE, MAJORITY LEADER: We don't need any long and involved negotiations. We don't need any delay, any further paper. Let's just agree to it and move on.

GERSH: But the income tax cuts President Bush signed into law last spring are phased in over five years, and Republicans are convinced speeding them up will speed up the economy.

SEN, TRENT LOTT, MINORITY LEADER: If you want to have a stimulative effect, the best way to do it is to get some rate cuts at least, certainly for the middle-income Americans. And if that's not done, that's going to be a real problem.

GERSH: Early this evening, the president met with a bipartisan group of Senate moderates hoping to pick up support for a stimulus package. A deal is by no means done, but analysts say the two sides finally appear to be moving closer. Darren Gersh, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/11/01: Outlook & Analysis Of The US's Economic Recovery

SUSIE GHARIB: Well, that stimulus package and today's Fed rate cut could determine when the US economy recovers. And joining us live from Midtown Manhattan to analyze today's developments: Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of First Albany; and Michelle Girard, Treasury market analyst with Prudential Securities. And welcome to both of you. Michelle, let me begin with you. As you know the rate cut announcement today was kind of expected. The only real surprise was what was the Fed going to say in its policy statement. And it pretty much left the door open for more rates cuts. Tell us your thoughts about the Feds comments today.

MICHELLE GIRARD, TREASURY MARKET ANALYST, PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES: Well, I think the comments do suggest that the easing cycle is winding down. As noted in the package, the Fed did express some optimism on the economy, although they said the signs were preliminary and tentative. But clearly by maintaining the bias to ease, by cutting the discount rate, they certainly left the door open. And I do expect they're going to follow up with another rate cut in January.

GHARIB: Hugh, what did you think of the market reaction? It seemed somewhat muted.

HUGH JOHNSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, FIRST ALBANY: The market reaction was muted because the real key now is not so much what the Federal Reserve is going to do. There's enough stimulate in the pipeline, Susie, to get the economy going and what really the financial markets generally are looking for is some evidence, some sign that, indeed, it's starting to work, some sign that the economy is going to respond. I think we're seeing some of those signs, you know, consumer expectations rising, jobless claims declining, leading indicators of the economy pointing up. But they're just not quite strong enough yet, so we need to see the results of the rate cuts.

GHARIB: And I guess another sign, Hugh and Michelle, would be what happens with this economic stimulus package. And I'd like you to address that if we get a stimulus package, if we don't get a stimulus package, what impact is that going to have on what's next for the Fed's job?

GIRARD: Well, if we do get the stimulus package, which I expect, it would further feed this idea that the easing cycle is coming to a close. There won't be as much need for the Fed to be lowering interest rates if the government is going to be doing more to stimulate the economy as well. The Fed has said, Fed Chairman Greenspan has said rate cuts and tax cuts are not mutually exclusive. But certainly in the market's mind, the more we get from the government the less that we'll, the less responsibility the Fed will have to stimulate the economy further.

GHARIB: Do you agree with that, Hugh?

JOHNSON: Yes, Michelle is right. I mean the more the government, the federal government in Washington does in the form of either spending increases or tax cuts, the less the Federal Reserve will have to reduce interest rates. But, you know, one thing that bothers me, and I have to look at the details of package that's now being proposed, is that's it's targeted towards the consumer and really, quite frankly, Susie, the consumer is not really the issue here. It's business spending. And they're starting to take away from the stimulus to business spending and that, quite frankly, means that they're probably sapping the impact of the stimulus package.

GHARIB: Let me talk to you, Hugh, a little bit about what's been going on Wall Street with the stock market. This rally that we've seen recently, is that because it's a predictor that the economy is about to turn or is it just making up for all the losses that the market has sustained since September 11?

JOHNSON: I think it's predicting that the economy is going to turn first or second quarter. It's not just the stock market's going up. It's also that interest rates are going up, the yield curve is steepening, and also investors are starting to buy those so-called bull market sectors-technology, industrials, consumer cyclicals. The message of markets is pretty strong and I think it's that a recovery is coming. It's just difficult to tell whether it's first quarter or second quarter.

GHARIB: Michelle, you mentioned just a moment ago about what the Fed might do next. There's that January meeting. It's a long way off from that time. You think that they'll be another cut then?

GIRARD: I do.

GHARIB: Why is that?

GIRARD: Well, I don't think the economy is probably going to bottom out until the first quarter of next year. The markets have come a long way, both the bond and the stock market looking ahead to recovery. But we're not there yet and I do think there'll be further signs of weakness along signs of improvement over the next couple of months. And I think to really ensure that we get this recovery on its way, which is what the Fed wants to do, they will take action further.

GHARIB: All right, between now and that January meeting, both of you, what events are you going to be watching? Is it going to be quarterly earnings, what happens with the economic stimulus package? What is it that you're going to be watching that's going to give us some clues about what the Fed will do next? Hugh?

JOHNSON: Well, you've got to look at all the leading indicators. Consumer confidence and consumer expectations important. Jobless claims, a lot of building permits, a lot of technical stuff that tells us where the economy is going. But I'll also tell you that probably the next employment is going to be very important. The Fed will look at it very carefully. It's likely to show weakness and set, really give them the support to cut interest rates further.

GHARIB: All right, Michelle, I can't get your point of view on that. We've run out of time. But thank you both for joining us this evening. And we've been speaking with Hugh Johnson of First Albany and Michelle Girard of Prudential Securities.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/11/01: One On One With Lars Nyberg, CEO, NCR

SUSIE GHARIB: From cash registers to data mining, NCR (NCR) has transformed itself into a company at the forefront of technology. Its CEO, Lars Nyberg, says that many firms have lots of valuable information, they just don't know how to use it.. At a recent "BusinessWeek" digital technology conference in San Francisco, Nyberg sat down with New York Bureau Chief Scott Gurvey.

LARS NYBERG, CHAIRMAN & CEO, NCR: The industries are commoditizing. And the question is what's going to be your competitive advantage going forward. And I'm not so sure product is going to be that competitive advantage for the long haul and really being able to build relationships with your customers, I think, is the ultimately competitive advantage. And that means that you need to mine all the data that every company has about its customers. And we have a lot of data, a lot of data. But we don't seem to be able to turn that data into information into actionable information to treat our customers better, to predict what they want, the kind of services or products or whatever. And that is basically what the warehouser does. It allows you to transform data into actionable information.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Can you give us an example? NYBERG: When an airline has an overbooked flight and there are 15 minutes to takeoff and you have offered all the financial incentives and there are no takers and you have to make a decision, who do you bump and who could you possibly upgrade to the only seat in first class available, how do you do that? Well, the gate manager needs to make the decision. The gate manager needs to know who is not a profitable customer and not only who holds the ticket of the day in terms of profitability, but over the last couple of years. What is his service record? Are you going to bump somebody you bumped last week? I think you would like to know you're not going to do that. All that data is available somewhere in the airlines' computers and what we can do is to get the data out. Get the data into information. Have the frontline troops be able to use that data to make better and faster decisions. That is what the under priced data warehouse is all about.

GURVEY: Doesn't the data mining create privacy concerns?

NYBERG: Well, I think privacy is a big issue. I think privacy is a big issue, also, for corporations. NCR and Teradata, we've been on those barricades for quite some time. That is, this is only going to work, to build a relationship will only work if you have trusted relationships. If I ask the consumer don't trust my bank, I will not be willing to share information about me and I probably will leave that bank. So when you get into these kind of decision architectural decisions, you will need very clearly to have a big portion of the discussion about how do I ensure trust with my customers.

GURVEY: Are you finding that companies are beginning to understand that, as well? For example, I see some creating new positions called chief privacy officer.

NYBERG: Yes, we have appointed one ourselves in NCR a month ago. I think that's more of a sign of the importance. That in itself will not solve the problem. It is absolutely essential that management recognize the importance of privacy, are willing to make the right compromises and the right decisions to ensure in the end that you get a trusted relationship with your customer.

GURVEY: Thank you. Lars Nyberg, NCR.

NYBERG: Great seeing you again.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/11/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: The stock market opened modestly higher today, getting an early boost from a surprisingly upbeat fourth-quarter sales forecast from cell phone maker Nokia (NOK), and a $2 gain in its stock perked up the market in general. At 10:30 a.m., the Dow Industrial Average recouped 24 points of yesterday's 128-point loss, while the NASDAQ Index got back 23 points of its 29-point drop yesterday. The market held on to its early advance for the rest of the morning, and then added a bit during early afternoon trading in anticipation that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the eleventh time this year. At 2:00 p.m., the Dow was up 32 points, NASDAQ posted a 27-point gain. In the hour after the rate cut, the Dow moved to as much as a 90-point gain, but then abruptly reversed itself in the final hour when Merck (MRK) warned that next year's earnings will be no better than this year's. Over a $6 tumble in Merck's stock was the main reason why the Dow Industrial Average closed with a loss of 33.08 points at 9888.37. The NASDAQ Index managed to salvage a closing gain of 9.81 at 2001.93.

Big board volume up a little bit from yesterday at 1.36 billion shares, not quite a 7 to 5 margin of down volume over up volume.

The Dow Transport Index down just over 12 1/2 points.

A 6 2/3-point drop on the Utilities Index.

The Closing Tick just modestly bullish at +332.

Standard & Poor's 500 down nearly 3 1/4 points.

Almost a 2-point drop on the 100.

The MidCap 400 edged up 0.64.

The Bridge Futures Price Index up 1/3 of a point.

A loss of 2.14 on the New York Composite.

Value Line down 0.12.

The Russell2000 Small Cap edged up 0.59.

And the Wilshire 5000 down 18.87.

Bond prices rose for the second day in a row in anticipation of that Fed rate cut, and then after the quarter-point reduction was announced, the luster came off the rally as many investors decided the Fed's upbeat longer term outlook for the economy signaled that the days are numbered for the current downtrend in interest rates.

As a result, tax-free issues ended with little change, corporates salvaged quarter-point closing gains, while the Treasury market was modestly higher.

The 5-year notes rising 12/32.

An 11/32 gain on the 10-year notes.

The 30-year bond up 9/32.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index up 12.87.

The Dow still flirting with that 10,000 level, but it did not manage to close above it today due to that Merck (MRK) announcement later on, down 33. And 5 more issues down than up, just a stand-off between advances and declines. 57 new yearly highs, 49 new lows.

Kroger Company (KR) topped the active list on 37.8 million shares, down $3.38. Third quarter earnings came in higher, $0.32 versus last year's $0.28, but the company is cutting its fourth quarter earnings guidance from $0.50 to $0.46 to $0.48 and cutting 1,500 jobs, as well. Standard & Poor's downgraded the stock from "accumulate" to just a "hold."

Compaq Computer (CPQ) down $0.21.

Pfizer (PFE) in that weak drug group, down nearly $1.

Calpine (CPN) off $2.29, still being undermined by the Enron fallout.

El Paso (EPG) down $2.72. Standard & Poor's tied the weakness to a news wire article stating the company used third party financing to keep $2 billion of debt off the balance sheet. Kind of creative accounting, as they say.

Halliburton (HAL) held steady today.

And then Merck (MRK) down $6.29. That accounted for 42 points in the Dow's weakness and of course the company warned 2002 earnings will be no better than this year's, which are estimated at $3.15. Some of the company's patents on major drugs, of course, will be expiring over the next year.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) moving up $1.

General Electric (GE) lost $0.01.

And then a new issue, ARAMARK (RMK) up $2.40. It's into food and other outsourcing services to business. 30 million share IPO priced at $23, opened at $26, the high of the day $26.25.

AMR (AMR) down $0.07. The company's chairman warned the company is still losing millions of dollars a day, but he did note bookings for December and January are higher.

Bank of America (BAC) up $0.73. It traded as high as $63.05 after the company announced it's going to buy back up to 130 million of its shares.

General Motors (GM) down $1.69. Fiat (FIA) has launched a $2.2 billion bond offering which is convertible into Fiat's six percent holding of G.M. common stock, potential earnings dilution there. Fiat's stock dropped $1.25 itself.

Jones Apparel (JNY) up $0.60. The company's stock is going to be added to the Standard & Poor's Index after the close this Friday. It will replace Homestake Mining (HM), of course, which is being acquired by Barrick Gold (ABX).

Sealed Air (SEE) bouncing back $2.89 after losing over $4 yesterday on insider selling concerns. Today, Salomon Smith Barney says the sell-off on the stock was over done.

Wendy's (WEN) moving up $0.93. It traded as high as $30 after Lehman Brothers upgraded it from "market perform" to a "strong buy" and a $40 a share target.

Corimon (CRM) up $1.50, one of the better percentage gainers. A.G. Edwards made some positive comments about this Venezuelan chemicals company.

Triad Hospitals (TRI) up $1.89. The company increased its earnings forecast not only for this year, but next year as well.

Nokia (NOK) itself had a good day, up $1.71. It traded as high as $26.09. As I mentioned, the company sees fourth quarter sales up 20 percent and it expects earnings to meet or beat Street estimates.

Morton's Restaurant (MRG) down $1.75. The company forecasting its 2000 results will be substantially below the previous year's, maybe even have a fourth quarter loss.

And Great A&P (GAP) down $2.89.

And Supervalu (SVU) down $1.92. Both stocks hurt by the Kroger news.

Nasdaq trading, a gain of 9.81. Volume up to 1.96 billion shares. For every 19 stocks higher, about 17 lower.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $