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button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: The Impact of Argentina's Economic Anxieties On US Investors
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: Should The US Work To Rebuild Afghanistan's Shattered Economy?
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: How The Box Office Is Cashing In During Tough Times
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: Market Monitor- Todd Eberhard, President of Eberhard Investment Associates
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
button.gif (507 bytes) 12/21/01: Market Stats
12/21/01:The Impact of Argentina's Economic Anxieties On US Investors

SUSIE GHARIB: Wall Street ended the week with some holiday cheer. Stocks got a boost from investor optimism for an economic recovery. The Dow rose 50 points and the NASDAQ gained 27. Wall Street also kept a close watch on developments in Argentina where the stock market was closed today. But there are fears the crisis there could impact the U.S. Scott Gurvey reports.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The government has fallen again in Buenos Aires, but there is a difference this time around. There are demonstrations to be sure, but demonstrations handled by the police. The military is staying out of what is mainly a political and economic crisis. That relative calm extends to the financial markets around the world. Experts say the impact has been muted because the collapse was expected.

JOYCE CHANG, HEAD OF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, J.P. MORGAN: You didn't have an element of surprise in this crisis. Argentina has been in recession for three years now. For the whole year what we have seen, at least from investors, is outflows from Argentina as people have been preparing for worst case scenarios being a possibility.

GURVEY: That preparation included cutting back on investments and using little leverage. There is, for example, no significant hedge fund exposure to Argentina.

DANIEL TILLOTSON, VP, EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL: One of the positive elements in this crisis has been the lack of contagion, contagion being the prices of bonds of other emerging markets countries going down in tandem with those of the crisis countries, which very much took place in the crisis of Mexico in '95, in Russia in '98 and Brazil in '99.

GURVEY: Today the United States, Canada and Mexico issued an unusual joint statement calling on Argentina to put together a new economic plan to restore, quote, "sustainable growth and prosperity," endquote. But Washington also said it sees little risk the crisis will spread. Many global experts now see Argentina enacting economic reforms that are long over due. They think foreign investors will return to Argentina in time.

CHANG: Right now you're not even sure what government's in place. So I think you definitely have to wait a little bit. But I think that Argentina is a country that does have some very good assets. There will be investment opportunities sometime in the course of 2002.

GURVEY: Today's Moody's lowered the ratings on many of Argentina's debt instruments as well as the ratings of many Argentinean banks. Scott Gurvey, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



12/21/01: Should The US Work To Rebuild Afghanistan's Shattered Economy?

SUSIE GHARIB: As the hunt for Osama bin Laden continues in Afghanistan, efforts are ramping up to rebuild the battered country. An interim government takes over tomorrow. But as Quinn O'Toole reports, the new leaders face the massive task of reviving a devastated economy.

QUINN O'TOOLE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: A newly arrived international peacekeeping force, and an interim government are positive steps for Afghanistan, but the humanitarian and economic situations are still very bleak. Seven million Afghans face severe food shortages and starvation. Three out of four don't have access to safe water. And the infrastructure of the country lies in ruins.

JEFFREY SACHS, DIRECTOR, HARVARD UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: You've got a disastrous short-run emergency situation, you have a disastrous medium- term situation of trying to rebuild what bas been bombed out for 20 years, and then you have a horrendous development challenge of how do you get a Himalayan country in the middle of nowhere, in a sense, economically to achieve some economic development.

O'TOOLE: The World Bank estimates it will cost up to $3 billion over the next couple of years to start rebuilding Afghanistan. But while the development task is daunting, experts say Afghanistan does have some economic potential. Farmland and vineyards once produced some of the finest fruits in the region. There are deposits of iron and other minerals. And Afghanistan's location at the crossroads of the Caspian region and the Indian subcontinent presents a major opportunity for much needed cash.

ISHAQ NADIRI, ECONOMIC PROFESSOR, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY: At the northern part of Afghanistan you have these huge oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and the like, and in the southern part you have Pakistan and India which are - it's usually do not have any oil of any kind, so Afghanistan can be a source as well as a route for energy.

O'TOOLE: Economist Isaq Nadiri represented the former Afghan king at the talks that the created country's new government. He says Afghanistan has a special advantage, a population that has become very resourceful though years of struggle.

NADIRI: The entrepreneurial capability of the people of Afghanistan are very important to keep in mind, they are good merchants, they are good entrepreneurs if given a chance.

O'TOOLE: But any chance the Afghan economy has of getting restarted will require a massive commitment from the international community and the US. A commitment that makes many skeptical.

SACHS: We can do it if we want to do it, but the number of places that we've walked away from is much greater than those that we've helped.

O'TOOLE: The US has already committed more than $300 million to help rebuild Afghanistan, a country the World Bank calls the poorest most miserable state in the world. Quinn O'Toole, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/21/01: How The Box Office Is Cashing In During Tough Times

SUSIE GHARIB: Despite the slumping economy and the war, 2001 has been a great year for the movie business. Films like "Harry Potter" and "Shrek" have brought in almost $8 billion. And this week's opening of "Lord of the Rings" is expected to add millions more. As Pat Anson reports, Hollywood has rediscovered that bad news can mean good times at the box office.

PAT ANSON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In the wake of the September 11 attacks, there were many fears in Hollywood that Americans would stay at home and avoid public places like movie theaters.

PAUL DERGARABEDIAN, PRESIDENT, EXHIBITOR RELATIONS: There was so much uncertainty nobody knew were people were going to just stay in their homes, were they going to go out at all. And what happened was people started not traveling so much. They weren't flying to far away destinations. But what they were doing, they were going to their local movie theaters. And we've actually seen both attendance and revenues increase since September 11.

ANSON: Nearly one and a half billion movie tickets were sold this year, one of the best years ever for the box office.

MARTIN GROVE, COLUMNIST, HOLLYWOOD REPORTER: When you have bad economic times, as this year ran into, you find that for people who need to escape, a trip to the movies is the cheapest form of good entertainment that they can find and a great way to forget about your troubles for two hours.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Put your right hand over the broom and say up.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Wow.

ANSON: The year also saw Hollywood rediscover the economic power of family films. The two biggest hits of the year were "Harry Potter" and "Shrek." Together the two films grossed over $500 million domestically, over a billion worldwide.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Thank you! Thank you very much.

ANSON: Investors hoping to cash in on the box office boom will have a hard time doing so. Most major studios are owned by conglomerates, like News Corporation (NWS) or Viacom (VIA). Making movies is just a small part of their business.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Background action!

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Background action!

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: And action.

ANSON: Warner Brothers had eight number one films this year and at one point this month, 40 percent of the screens in North America were playing Warner Brother films. But success at the box office had little impact on the stock price of parent company, AOL Time Warner (AOL), which was hurt by slower growth in its cable publishing and music divisions.

TODD EBERHARD, PRESIDENT, EBERHARD INVESTMENT ASSOCIATES: All of these companies are involved in so many other businesses that you can have success on the movie side and failure in other things.

ANSON: With the economy expected to remain sluggish, the buzz in Hollywood has already started about next year's lineup of films. "Spiderman," "Men In Black II" and the latest sequel to '"Star Wars" could make 2002 another record year at the box office. Pat Anson, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Los Angeles.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

12/21/01: Market Monitor- Todd Eberhard, President of Eberhard Investment Associates

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Todd Eberhard, President of Eberhard Investment Associates, a New York City based money management firm. And welcome to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Todd.

TODD EBERHARD, PRESIDENT, EBERHARD INVESTMENT ASSOCIATES: Thank you, Paul. A pleasure to be here.

KANGAS: Because this is your first appearance with us, I'd like to you tell our viewers about your approach to managing money, especially in these difficult times.

EBERHARD: Well, it has been very difficult times recently, certainly. But I've been in business for coming up on 17 years, so we've seen the good and the bad in these markets. We're not the newcomers to the game. And really we're very proactive in the markets today versus somebody who is reactive. We're trying to look to forward trends, not looking backwards, because the old adages don't work these days.

KANGAS: How did you fare coming out of the tragic event of September 11?

EBERHARD: Well, after the delay of the market's opening, we obviously, nobody could trade during that period of time.

KANGAS: Right.

EBERHARD: When we reopened, we reevaluated all our positions and actually started to look at new investments that made sense because we did feel that first week with be a shambles and then we would gain some momentum and come back at least to potentially pre-September 11 levels, which we've certainly done.

KANGAS: So, it sounds like you're taking a rather bullish stance on the market rather than the bearish?

EBERHARD: I'm a cautious bull right now. But much less cautious than I was going back a month or two ago. I think the last quarter of this year up to this point has been fantastic considering all the negative news from Enron on down. I've really been very impressed with the resiliency of the investors and somewhat to the consumers, and hopefully that will continue and really grow stronger in 2002.

KANGAS: Now, you handle money for many different people and corporations and use mutual funds, individual stocks. How much money do you have under management?

EBERHARD: We've got about $2.2 billion right now under management.

KANGAS: And how many accounts?

EBERHARD: Accounts range anywhere, obviously depending on the type of clients, but we're somewhere in the 1,000 to 1200 range.

KANGAS: And you can handle that volume on a day to day basis?

EBERHARD: Well, it's not just me, thank goodness. We've got a good staff behind us. Some people, Jeff Cohn (ph), for example, just joined our firm, who's exceptional. We brought him in from St. Louis.

KANGAS: Right.

EBERHARD: And a lot of people are assisting.

KANGAS: And is there a minimum that you have to put with you in order to open an account?

EBERHARD: Well, our strategy is a little different. We look at a person's situation, their risk tolerance level and what their goal is and then we base that, not the dollar amount, on if we take them on as a client, if we can do what they need.

KANGAS: When do you expect this economy to start growing again?

EBERHARD: Well, we're hearing a lot of different reports from economists and analysts out there and our trend, or what we're seeing as a trend, it's going to take at least another six months for the good signs to show in the economy. But that does mean you should be starting to look at investments from the Wall Street perspective now, because you should be buying six moments prior to.

KANGAS: What should we be buying?

EBERHARD: Well, we're looking at some stocks which are coming out with very good numbers right now. Examples would be a General Electric (GE), which is trading at about $41 a share.

KANGAS: And also a very high P/E ratio, wouldn't you agree?

EBERHARD: Absolutely, but certainly the performance warrants those type of numbers from what we're seeing and certainly from what they're giving for the outward focus of their numbers.

KANGAS: Good point.

EBERHARD: In addition a Home Depot (HD) we think is exceptional, good or bad economy, because if people are not selling homes they're going to fix up the ones they're in. So we like that stock as well. If you're a little more risk tolerant and you want to get out there and really take a shot, something we think which a lot of people in our industry are against is look at some of the airline stocks, after all the tragedies that have happened. And we're big believers right now in U.S. Air (U), which is trading at about $6 a share, and American Airlines, AMR, which is in the $20 range.

KANGAS: All right. What about bonds at this level? Not interested?

EBERHARD: Well, we're less interested. We think the, not that we think the Fed's going to be cutting or not cutting too much more. That really hasn't had a great effect in this last year on bonds. The concern is more along the lines of the yields you're going to get in buying bonds today doesn't warrant, in our opinion, the risk associated with buying them.

KANGAS: OK. In our closing moments here, Todd, do you have any Dow prediction for next year?

EBERHARD: Boy, that's a tough one. At this point we're looking at a Dow probably, in our opinion, a year from today somewhere in the 11,500 range.

KANGAS: And do you think that the Nasdaq high tech stocks will lead this market on to better times?

EBERHARD: They may not lead initially, but I think by year end, going back, going ahead a year again, I think they're probably going to be the ones we're going to look back on and hope that you did buy.

KANGAS: Any just quick suggestions in the high tech stock you like?

EBERHARD: Sure. We like EMC (EMC) at this point. Oracle (ORCL) at this level. We think both are exceptional buys at these prices.

KANGAS: Todd, thanks very much for being with us. Most interesting.

EBERHARD: Paul, it's been a pleasure. Thank you.

KANGAS: My guest, Todd Eberhard, President of Eberhard Investment Associates.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.



12/21/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up

PAUL KANGAS: Despite those worrisome problems in Argentina, stocks on Wall Street opened nicely higher, led by the tech stocks as money managers appeared to be adding them to their portfolios in the belief the economy will recover next year. A better than expected forecast from NorTel (NT) was helpful in that regard. By 10:00 a.m. the Dow Industrial Average recovered 65 points of yesterday's 85-point loss while the NASDAQ Index was up 24 points, after losing 64 points yesterday. Word that the University of Michigan's December consumer sentiment index had a bigger than expected rise helped boost the Dow to a 75-point advance at 11:00 a.m. But then a bout of selling in the NASDAQ market cooled things off. And by 12:30 the Industrial Average was up only 29 points, the NASDAQ up just 16. The upturn got new life in afternoon trading thanks partly to buying linked to the triple witching expiration of stock and index options and futures. The Dow Industrial Average then went on to close with a gain of 50.16 points, putting it at 10,035.34. The Dow fell only once and rose four times this week for a net advance of 224.19 points, that's 2.3 percent. The NASDAQ Index rose 27.29 today, ending at 1945.83. For the week, the Composite was down 7 1/3 points.

Big board volume today heavy, 1.7 billion shares, partly because of the triple witching and a lot more up volume than down volume. About a 5 to 3 ratio.

Dow Transports up 2 1/3 points.

Utilities fell 1 1/3.

The Closing Tick rather bullish at +569.

Nearly a 5-point gain in the S&P 500.

The 100 up 2.11.

A gain of almost 5 3/4 in the MidCap 400.

Bridge Futures Price Index was up exactly 1 1/4.

A gain of nearly 2 1/2 on the New York Composite.

The Value Line up 4 2/3 points.

Just about a 10-point rise in the Russell2000 Small Cap Index.

The broadly based Wilshire 5000 up just about 62 points.

The bond market lost ground after reports of a smaller

than expected 0.7 percent drop in November consumer spending and that sizable jump in consumer sentiment

overshadowed the news that third quarter Gross Domestic

Product was revised downward from a 1.1 percent decline to 1.3 percent.

A rise in New York oil futures was another negative causing tax free and corporate issues to close with losses of 1/4 to 3/8 of a point.

And the Treasury market fell moderately across the board.

The 5-year notes dropping 8/32.

The 10-year notes down 12/32.

The 30-year bond off 13/32.

And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index down 2.41.

After taking a little breather yesterday, Santa Claus returned to Wall Street today and the rally got under way again, up 50 points on the Dow and up 224 for the week. The broader market higher by a 20 to 11 margin and 30 more new yearly highs than new lows.

Solectron (SLR) topped the active list on 30 million shares, edging up $0.44. A little technical rebound apparently after the stock dropped $5 a share in the three previous sessions.

AT&T (T) moved up $0.50.

And then General Motors (GM) did just about the same, $0.51.

Citigroup edging up $0.44. It looked like there could have been some institutional buying in those big names.

And ExxonMobil (XOM) no slouch either, up $0.20.

Compaq Computer (CPQ), an $0.82 gain, good percentage.

Pfizer (PFE) was down $0.40 after a jury awarded plaintiffs $43 million in damages for injuries allegedly caused by the company's Rezulin diabetes drug.

NorTel Networks (NT) edged up $0.77.

EMC (EMC) a $0.04 gain.

Tenth in big board volume, AOL Time Warner (AOL) down $0.41.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) moved up $1.11 after the UBS Warburg made some positive comments about the airlines.

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) down $1.80. The "Heard On

The Street" column in today's "Wall Street Journal" discusses concerns regarding the financing of the

company's considerable outsourcing operations.

The Gap (GPS) moved up nearly $1 after Prudential upgraded it from "sell" to "hold." Well, you couldn't do that if you already sold, though, could you?

Anyway, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up $1.40. That was the Dow's biggest point gainer.

And then NIKE (NKE), a $2.51 rise. Second quarter earnings better than expected at $0.48 on a six percent rise in revenues and the company says its worldwide order backlog is up eight percent over the previous year.

Texas Instruments (TXN) moved up $1.50 after Soundview Financial Brokerage repeated a "strong buy" with a $38 a share target.

CIBER (CBR) moved up $1.90. A spokesman told us buyers are probably starting to get a little positive about a forthcoming increase in information technology business.

Saks (SKS) up $1.28. Yesterday, Merrill Lynch upgraded a lot of stocks in the retail group. Maybe this one's playing a little catch-up.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) rose $3.04 after the C.S. First Boston Brokerage began covering the stock with a "buy" recommendation.

Core Labs (CLB), one of the biggest percentage losers, down $1.95. The company sees lower than expected fourth quarter earnings of $0.18 to $0.22 versus its earlier prediction of $0.27 to $0.30. CIBC World Markets Brokerage downgraded the stock from "buy" to just "hold."

And then Banco Latinoamericano (BLX) down $3.27. Moody's Investor Service put the company's debt on review for possible downgrade because of its exposure to Argentine borrowers.

And HEICO (HEI) off $1.23. Fourth quarter earnings of only $0.14, way down from the previous year's $0.65. The company sees fiscal 2002 earnings at only about 80 to 90 percent of what the company will earn this year.

Nasdaq trading, a gain of 27.29 in the Index, but for the week it was down 7 1/3 points, as you saw earlier. 2.3 billion shares, pretty heavy, 22 stocks up for every 14 lower.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, moving up $0.78. After the close today, the company asked a fe

 

 

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