SUSIE GHARIB: Americans could be paying higher prices for oil starting on New Year's Day. OPEC oil ministers, gathering in Cairo, are expected to announce tomorrow another cut in oil production: one-and-a-half million barrels a day. It's contingent on non-OPEC nations cutting oil production by 500,000 barrels a day. OPEC hopes the moves will boost falling crude prices. But as Diane Eastabrook reports, oil might not be the only commodity getting more expensive next year.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Some analysts are predicting two years of commodity deflation could come to an end in 2002. They say the proposed oil production cut by OPEC and non-OPEC nations could keep crude prices above $20 a barrel in the first half of the year. But experts also caution the impact production cuts have on prices will be muted if the US economy remains in neutral, and if non-OPEC members don't comply with the cuts.

PHILIP FLYNN, ENERGY ANALYST, ALARON TRADING: At some point next year, it's going to be very difficult for these Russian oil companies to hold back somewhat. They've got some momentum. They're going to want to fly here. So even if this cut is successful for the entire six months, I think it's going to be very, very difficult for OPEC and non-OPEC nations to come together to extend this kind of a deal.

EASTABROOK: Analysts are also optimistic grain prices will head higher next year. China could begin importing US corn, wheat, and vegetable oil next year, as a new member of the World Trade Organization. But those same analysts warn huge supplies of US grains already in storage, and possible bumper crops in Latin America this spring could put the breaks on higher world-grain prices. The prices for some metals could also improve in 2002, thanks to 11 interest rate cuts this year, and the prospects of an improving economy. Still, some economists warn any increase in metals prices could be minimal.

DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK ONE: For now, we still have a lot of world capacity in these commodity items, and a lot of countries that are not in the best economic situation that would like to get rid of it and dump it on world markets. And as long as that's the case, it's hard to see a real spike in commodity prices anytime soon.

EASTABROOK: The one commodity price that should remain depressed is natural gas. Natural gas supplies are at record levels and demand has been low, thanks to what has so far been a warmer winter. But higher commodity prices don't necessarily translate into higher inflation. Analysts say in recent years, commodities have been poor inflation indicators because the economy has become more dependent on service sector industries. Diane Eastabrook, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Chicago.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

SUSIE GHARIB: In the wake of the September 11 attacks, corporate security costs are going up. One area where companies may need to spend more is on cyber security. Washington bureau chief Darren Gersh recently talked about that with Richard Clarke. He's President Bush's special adviser on cyberspace security. Many experts predict terrorists may attack through the Internet, but Clarke says that isn't the real threat.

RICHARD CLARKE, PRESIDENT'S ADVISER FOR CYBERSPACE SECURITY: To date we've only seen terrorist groups, al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, use the Internet to recruit people, to communicate among cells, to raise and transfer money; but they have not, as far as we can tell yet, been hacking into systems, into companies to engage in espionage or fraud or extortion or disruption. Now other people have. But not the traditional terrorist groups. So they might in the future. But I think the real threat to American industry is from criminals, is from other industries in the sense of industrial espionage, one against the other; and ultimately it's nation states.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: But are companies actually ready now? Are they spending the money they need to? Because some of the executives I've spoken to have said, look, we're in a recession now, it's going to take better economic times, frankly, before companies invest and spend the money and hire the people they need to protect their resources.

CLARKE: Yes. I think there are two answers to that. Prior to September 11, the Forrester Group out of Cambridge did a review on how much Fortune 500 companies were spending on IT security. They said that the average Fortune 500 company, as a percentage of revenue, was spending .0025 percent on IT security. They also said that most of those companies spent more than that on procuring coffee. Now if that's true of your company, if you're spending .0025 percent of revenue on IT security and yet your company relies upon - cannot do business without the Internet or IT networks, then you are going to be hacked. In fact you deserve to be hacked if that's all you're spending on IT security. Now since September 11, think that's changed. People are spending more money on security in general. But it's ironic, they're spending money on rent-a-cops, they're spending money on Jersey barriers in the parking lot as though they expect Osama bin Laden to drive a truck bomb into their lobby. That's not going to happen. But what is going to happen to most American companies that have low IT defense is that their files are going to be stolen or they could have the whole company taken down. What happened last month was a virus called Mimdum (ph). It was the smartest virus that we've seen to date. And it rampaged across the United States. Now the companies that got hit by it are now spending a lot of money on IT security.

GERSH: Traditionally when there's a virus, the security companies come out and they say, we've got a patch. And they'll put it up on their Web site, and anybody who wants it can download it. But apparently very few companies actually go to the trouble of doing that. You've suggested that a better way is perhaps for the industry to push it out so that people don't have to go get the patch, it's automatically loaded on. Is the industry ready to do that and how hard would that be to do that?

CLARKE: Well, the software manufacturers are constantly discovering vulnerabilities in their software. And whether it's Sun (SUNW) or Microsoft (MSFT) or Oracle (ORCL), all the software companies, it's true of all of them. And they all, as soon as they discover these vulnerabilities, create what's called a patch which is software that fixes the hole and prevents the security problem. And those companies distribute the patches to people who have bought their software in the first place. The problem is right now a systems administrator gets a patch and she doesn't know or he doesn't know the effect of putting it on. Yes, it could fix the vulnerability, but in the process it could do something else. It could kill five or six different applications that you need to have. That's why, I think that's the chief reason. It's not laziness. The chief reason is the systems administrators really don't know what's going to happen when they put this thing on. What we need is software that looks at your system, that comes with the patch, that looks at your system, diagnoses your system and reports to you, it's OK to put this patch on, or, you can put this patch on but it will create problems with three other applications. We don't have that today. And it's not beyond the wit of our software industry to create it. And I think they really have a responsibility to create it.

GERSH: Mr. Clarke, thank you.

CLARKE: Thank you.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

SUSIE GHARIB: As the Japanese keep trying to pull their country out of recession, an American investment firm is beginning to play a leading role in that process. Tonight, in the second part of a two part series, Lucy Craft reintroduces us to the man behind Ripplewood Holdings and the changes he and his company are trying to make.

LUCY CRAFT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Forty-five-year old buyout specialist Timothy Collins is the most aggressive of a handful of foreign investors who are acquiring bankrupt Japanese companies at fire sale prices.

TIMOTHY COLLINS, FOUNDER & CEO, RIPPLEWOOD HOLDINGS: We don't really look at distressed assets. We look industry by industry. And what we see is a country that's got the most powerful Industrial infrastructure in the world.

CRAFT: But while fans call Ripplewood visionary, detractors call the firm a vulture. Collins, who has specialized in turnarounds for over 10 years in the U.S., calls such charges unfounded. And admirers say his strategy of scouring Japan for gems in the rough, competitive but debt saddled companies, is sound. Ripplewood has garnered kudos so far for its stewardship of Shinsei Bank, the first foreign takeover of a Japanese lending institution. The retail and commercial bank, defying the industry practice of keeping so-called zombie borrowers on life support, has begun calling loans to insolvent companies. And in an industry notorious for lousy service and antiquated networks, Shinsei has invested heavily in I.T. and beefed up service to long suffering consumers and small business. The bank is finally profitable, although under pressure from regulators to ease up on its tough, Western style lending practices.

COLLINS: It's always easy for someone coming in new to see how to make change. It's very hard to do it as an incumbent management, to see the historical mistakes from a new perspective. So, you know, I think secondly we're just going to be beneficiaries of the perspective of someone with a very, you know, a very different background and the ability to see the potential for change.

CRAFT: But as for Ripplewood's other bargain basement acquisitions, critics say Collins may be getting what he paid for.

EDWIN MERNER, PRESIDENT, ATLANTIS INVESTMENT RESEARCH CORPORATION: You look on the road and it's littered with the bodies of foreign companies that have come in and tried to do this or that in Japan and have failed. You can't just come in with an idea and a lot of money and expect to succeed, especially in this sort of terrible economy.

CRAFT: You were quoted as saying that your work is fascinating and important. Is there some kind of missionary zeal to drag Japan into the 21st century?

COLLINS: No, I think I probably said fascinating. I don't know about important. I hope it's important. But, you know, I would that we have to be, we're fiduciaries. We have to focus first and foremost on our job, and that is making good investments. I happen to believe that if we're successful in Japan, and we certainly, all signs are positive so far, we will make a contribution to the Japanese society and to the Japanese economy and hopefully, you know, derivatively to the global economy.

CRAFT: By allowing the sell-off of Japanese companies to foreign private equity firms, Japan has signaled that it's ready to break with the old ways of doing business. But whether Japanese leaders are prepared to accept the dramatic restructuring needed to modernize the economy as well as provide a reasonable return to foreign investors remains to be seen. Lucy Craft, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Tokyo.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator says that even though the economic stimulus package didn't make it through Congress, the U.S. economy still needs help. Here's Alice Rivlin, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve.

ALICE RIVLIN, COMMENTARY: As Congress rushed home for the holidays, the stimulus package was left in the dust. When Congress returns, it should not revive the package, but it should revive the stimulus. Unemployment will keep rising for several more months. More and more workers are running out of benefits. There is a simple answer to that: extend the benefits. We've done it in every recession. Don't make it a bargaining chip, just do it. Consumer spending won't pick up soon, not with unemployment rising. Everyone knows that last summer's rebate was unfair to those with too little income to get the full $300. So get the rebate checks out to those who should have gotten them last time. And come on Democrats, get behind the payroll tax holiday proposed by Republican Senator Pete Domenici. It's a good idea and working people will spend the money. And pass a temporary investment tax credit or increase expensing, anything to get companies buying the stuff they need now, not next year or the year after. Putting together a package invites party ideologues to include their favorite nostrums. Drafting the package becomes the objective, not reviving the economy. But if sensible measures come up for a vote one at a time, it will be hard for members to oppose them and collectively they will get the economy moving. Forget the package, just pass the stimulus. I'm Alice Rivlin.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.

JEFF YASTINE: Another decent day for stocks as the markets move higher. And once again, the strongest move was at the beginning of the day. And then a bit of a fade into the close: the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping higher in the first minutes of trading, and clocked a 45-point gain in the first hour. There wasn't much real news out there, but suffice it to say, the post-holiday bullish sentiment remains strong. Big board volume was light, but stronger than yesterday, advancers outpaced decliners by a 3-2 margin in those morning hours. By noontime, the Dow was still up more than 35 points. In afternoon trading, the NASDAQ, after a strong opening, drifted lower from its morning highs. The semiconductor and networking stocks seemed to be the favorites du jour. And in late trading, both indexes retouched their morning opening prices, and that set off another round of buying into the close. And the Dow going on with a finish of - a gain of 43 points to 10,131. And the NASDAQ rose about 15.75 points to settle at 1976 1/2.

Big board volume continuing to pick-up today, weighing in at nearly 900 million shares.

Transports climbing 7 points.

Utilities rising a little over 3 points after a similar rise yesterday.

The Closing Tick strongly bullish at +538.

In the broader market, the S&P 500, 100 and MidCap 400 all posting nice gains.

The CRB down about 1 1/2 on the day.

The New York Stock Exchange Composite Index advancing 3 1/2.

The Value Line rising over 3.

The Small Caps following up with a nearly 2 1/2-point gain.

The broadly-based Wilshire 5000 up 71 1/4 points.

Bonds moved higher today, breaking their three-day losing streak. The gains came in spite of a Treasury auction of $23 billion in 2-year notes. Normally, those auctions tend to depress prices, but plenty of buyers showed up today. Traders said some of it was year-end portfolio dressing by banks, and perhaps some bets that the economy won't rebound as strongly as the stock market seems to be anticipating. There is a host of economic reports due out tomorrow by the way, including consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and home sales. Corporate and tax-free issues gained; and so did Treasuries.

The 5-year note up 19/32.

The 10-year note gaining nearly one full point.

And the long-bond gaining nearly as much, the yield now down to 5.47 percent.

Finally, the Lehman Brothers long-bond Index jumping about 7 1/2 points.

The Dow managed to hold above the 10,000 level again with a gain of 43 points and once again advancers taking the lead over decliners by a nearly 2 to 1 margin. 124 new yearly highs, just 24 new lows.

Lucent (LU) holding steady on the day, trading a little over 11 million shares.

AT&T (T) falling $0.22.

AT&T Wireless (AWE), which is now a completely separate company, gaining a little more than $0.50.

G.E. (GE) rising $0.58.

AOL Time Warner (AOL) gaining a little over a $1 there.

EMC (EMC) gaining $0.30.

Compaq (CPQ) edged up $0.18.

Motorola (MOT) ending up a $0.01. Yesterday, the cell phone giant filed a shelf registration, this after $2 billion in debt and equity securities.

Calpine (CPN) gaining $0.55.

And Pfizer (PFE) ended off $0.27. After the close, it settled an important liability lawsuit regarding the company's rezulin product. The dollar amount, though, for the settlement was not disclosed.

Among the widely helds, Advanced Micro (AMD) rising $0.50, part of a strong semiconductor group today. Merrill Lynch expects Advanced Micro to post a smaller loss for the quarter.

Cablevision (CVC) climbing $0.69. After the close, the company announced plans to take a $55 million restructuring charge and eliminate about four percent of its workforce. Cablevision management says it wants better operational efficiency and growth.

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) gaining $1.18. The company filed to sell $15 billion in asset backed notes. The notes are backed by the company's receivables.

SBC Communications (SBC) gaining $0.57. The telecom is acquiring a three percent stake in Yahoo! (YHOO). It's buying those shares from Softbank America.

Sears (S) dipped $0.27. The company has agreed to pay $63 million to settle fraud allegations regarding Die Hard batteries that Sears sold in the mid-1990s. But those shares are up about 40 percent for the year.

Waters Corporation (WAT) falling $1.51. The company's chairman and CEO wants to sell about two million shares of his stock. But after the close, it was announced that the company will replace FMC (FMC) in the S&P 500.

Global Power Equipment (GEG) gaining more than 2. A spokesman for the company says the gain was probably due to a lot of insider selling on the stock, which is now drying up.

AES (AES) moved up $1.35. It's a global power company. The company says it reached an agreement with the Brazilian government to recover lost income which resulted from electricity rationing.

What a difference a day makes here in the retail, auto retailer group. We mentioned these same two companies yesterday. They were both down. Today they're up on United Auto's (UAG) announcement that it expects to beat analysts' estimates by at least $0.04.

And that news rubbed off on Group 1 Automotive (GPI), which gained $2. Goldman Sachs says it may raise fourth quarter profit estimates on that company.

Alpharma (ALO) ending up $1.54. Buckingham Research says the company is making progress deleveraging its balance sheet on the down side.

Wipro (WIT) ended off $2.25. This is an India based software firm and the company denies market rumors that it may eliminate up to 8