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12/31/01:
A Look Back At 2001 |
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12/31/01: The Trouble With Terrorism
Insurance m
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12/31/01: What Is Fueling The Wind
Beneath Spirit Airlines' Wings?
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12/31/01: Fourth Quarter Analysis
With Paul Cherney,Chief Real Time Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's
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12/31/01: Paul Kangas' Wall Street
Wrap Up
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12/31/01: Market Stats
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12/31/01: A
Look Back At 2001
LINDA O'BRYON: Wall Street finished out a losing year with more of the same
today. The Dow fell 115 points, and the NASDAQ lost 36. Two-thousand-one was,
to put it bluntly, a dismal year for investors, and most are glad to see it gone.
Scott Gurvey looks back at the trading record for the year.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The closing bell at the
New York Stock Exchange brought down the curtain on a most trying year for investors.
Although major market averages have recovered the ground they lost after the terrorist
attacks in September, they still finished down for the year.
AL GOLDMAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, A.G. EDWARDS: Two-thousand-one is a year
that I think everybody wants to get behind us. We had a 19-month bear market,
we had a recession and of course we had the tragedy of September 11. So a lot
of very negative events capped by 9-11, but a year that people want to get behind
us and we have much better things to look forward to in the new year.
GURVEY: For the record, the Dow 30 lost 7 percent for the year. It is the first
time since 1977 and '78 that the Dow has declined for two years in a row. The
Standard & Poor's 500 fell 13 percent and the NASDAQ Composite lost 21 percent.
The Russell2000 was a rare bright spot, gaining 1 percent, indicative of the relatively
good performance by small cap issues. That was small consolation for most investors,
who saw some of the biggest names in technology and some of the world's largest
corporations sink lower in 2001. Using the Wilshire 5000 as a proxy for the overall
market, investors' wealth declined by a whopping $1.68 trillion. The Wilshire
Index fell 11 ½ percent, and there is still considerable uncertainty about the
new year. Many analysts are concerned that valuations are still high unless earnings
improve.
TOM MCMANUS, EQUITY STRATEGIST, BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES: We're looking for
earnings to be quite modest, earnings growth to be quite modest coming through
2002. The first couple of quarters we think will be negative comparisons to 2001.
The third quarter we think will be about flat versus to 2001 and the fourth quarter
we think will be up double digits.
GURVEY: Analysts are generally expecting earnings growth to be flat in 2002,
with the stock market gaining in the second half. Scott Gurvey, "NIGHTLY
BUSINESS REPORT," New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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12/31/01: The
Trouble With Terrorism Insurance
PAUL KANGAS: By midnight tonight, two-thirds of the nation's commercial insurance
policies must be renewed. But after Congress failed to pass federal terrorism
insurance, some insurance companies are canceling coverage for large property
owners. As Darren Gersh reports, insurance agents are scrambling to find alternatives.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Bill Simons is finding
insurance companies are awfully curious these days. Simons owns a large insurance
agency in Washington. Many of his clients' property and terrorism policies renew
on New Year's Day, and Simons says insurance companies are sending him a long
list of questions.
BILL SIMONS, PRESIDENT, RUST INSURANCE AGENCY: "How many of this insured's
employees are going to be in the Capitol Building at any one time? What kind of
equipment would they have in the Capitol Building at any one time? What about
at their main location? What are the shifts, how many employees on each shift?"
These are questions that were never asked or considered in the past.
GERSH: Even so, most of Simons's clients have had no problem renewing their
coverage. But one, a large hospital, has already been told it's policy will be
canceled in April.
SIMONS: I think I'll get it solved, but it may be difficult, I may not be able
to get it solved. But if I can't, then nobody can. And I mean, it's going to be
a bigger problem than just my agency and my account. It's going to be a national
problem.
GERSH: Terrorism insurance is a bigger problem for cities with bigger buildings.
Many insurance companies, fearing another major attack, are already canceling
policies in New York. The uncertainty could disrupt some major real estate transactions.
CLIFTON RODGERS, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE: As this starts
to permeate, you're going to see a sort of a trickle effect throughout the overall
economy.
GERSH: Insurance analyst Alice Schroeder warns small cities may soon face the
same problems. Schroeder studied terrorism in the United Kingdom. As the city
of London became more protected, she says terrorists attacked softer targets in
smaller cities.
ALICE SCHROEDER, INSURANCE ANALYST, MORGAN STANLEY: Any concentration of property
values has some terrorism risk. Remember that part of the purpose of terrorism
is to surprise, so terrorists choose locations that might surprise you.
GERSH: Congress tried, but failed to approve federal terrorism insurance this
year, and some companies hope a bill will pass next year, but political analysts
here are not so optimistic. Darren Gersh, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT,"
Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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12/31/01: What
Is Fueling The Wind Beneath Spirit Airlines' Wings?
LINDA O'BRYON: Well, it has been a tough year for the nation's airlines and
not just for the big carriers. Smaller ones like Fort Lauderdale based Spirit
Airlines have been affected, as well. Spirit has developed a loyal following in
recent years. Jeff Yastine looks at how it's weathering the industry's economic
storm.
JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: 2001 should have been
a triumphant year for privately held Spirit Airlines. The carrier has added routes
and planes and celebrated more than a decade as a scheduled passenger airline.
Then along came the September attacks, which hurt Spirit like all the other carriers.
NED HOMFELD, CHAIRMAN, SPIRIT AIRLINES: We have been an airline for 11 years
now and, you know, we've experienced a very slow and gradual careful growth, you
know? And that's what we're really doing now. Yes, we had intended on being considerably
larger and expanding considerably faster prior to 9-11. But we are keeping with
our roots of being conservative and careful and growing as we can.
YASTINE: Spirit Chairman Ned Homfeld founded the airline and has overseen its
growth from a charter carrier to one with regular service to more than a dozen
cities in seven states and Puerto Rico. Homfeld says the carrier laid off some
staff and reduced service in a few markets in the first weeks after the attacks.
But a month later, Spirit added a new route to San Juan and added flights to other
cities it already serves. But Homfeld says the airline needed government loan
guarantees extended to the industry.
HOMFELD: These are critical to the survival of the industry and, you know,
Spirit's part of that industry. You know, the loan guarantees, you know, we're
looking forward to them because things certainly did change on 9-11. you know,
airlines have less access to the credit markets post 9-11 than they did on 9-10
and we're in the same group.
YASTINE: Homfeld says things have been looking up again. Flights that left
mostly empty are now mostly full and holiday ticket sales were good. Flexibility,
he says, has been the key to the airline's survival in the past months.
HOMFELD: A small airline does that automatically. That's, you know, in the
competitive world, we move to where we see an opportunity. If the opportunity
were to change, we could change with it very rapidly. That's what we have to do,
you know?
YASTINE: Homfeld says he doesn't expect an immediate recovery for his industry.
He says that will only come with time as consumer confidence returns and travelers
become used to the new security arrangements at U.S. airports. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY
BUSINESS REPORT, Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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12/31/01: Fourth
Quarter Analysis With Paul Cherney,Chief Real Time Market Analyst for Standard
& Poor's
PAUL KANGAS: Although it has been a down year for stocks on Wall Street overall,
the market actually showed some positive signs in the fourth quarter. And here
to provide us with some details is Paul Cherney, Chief Real Time Market Analyst
for Standard & Poor's. Thanks for being with us, Paul.
PAUL CHERNEY, CHIEF REAL-TIME MARKET ANALYST, STANDARD & POOR'S: My pleasure,
Paul.
KANGAS: How did the major averages fare in these last three months?
CHERNEY: Well, you know, I think that we put in a bottom that's going to be
the beginning of a bull market and that all three of the majors that we're looking
at were up.
KANGAS: Thirteen percent for the Dow. Is this in anticipation of an economic
recovery or what's, just a technical rebound or what?
CHERNEY: Well, it's a little bit of a technical rebound but more importantly
I think it's anticipation that the economy is going to turn the corner and that
the earnings situation will improve.
KANGAS: Well, the Nasdaq certainly did well, didn't it?
CHERNEY: Well, the NASDAQ was also hammered the most and technically that's
what you tend to see. Those that are hurt the most on the way down tend to rebound
with the same kind of volatility.
KANGAS: I would like to point out it's the NASDAQ 100 we're looking at, not
the Composite. Now, let's look at some winners in the Dow Industrial average,
led by Intel (INTC).
CHERNEY: Intel had a good quarter and this is exactly the case expecting things
to turn around and moving into the better known tech names that have balance sheets.
KANGAS: How about United Tech (UTX)? It's a stock that makes things for war.
Is that the reason?
CHERNEY: That's part of it, but they also are basic industrial stock which
people look to as the market turned and in anticipation of going higher.
KANGAS: And the big retailer Home Depot (HD) did well, too.
CHERNEY: Home Depot knows how to do it. They know how to put it out.
KANGAS: No more need be said there. The big losers, SBC Communications (SBC).
CHERNEY: Telecom has had tribunals and their problems with trying to be in
long distance, etc., it's been a burden to them.
KANGAS: And Merck (MRK).
CHERNEY: Merck had a great run up at the end of the fourth quarter last year.
It struggled this year. Vioxx sales not as good sales as expected. Pipeline not
very good.
KANGAS: Kodak (EK) down there with a $3.10 loss for the last three months.
CHERNEY: They're still shuffling around in Kodak trying to figure out what
will make it work.
KANGAS: OK. Now, let's have a look at the Standard & Poor's 500. two big
winners, Network Appliance (NTAP).
CHERNEY: Network Appliance is a data storage company which wasn't doing well
but after the World Trade Center situation people realized that it's very important
to have proper storage and backup.
KANGAS: And Palm (PALM) did all right.
CHERNEY: Well, this was a, this got hammered into the fourth, into the September
and then rebounded dramatically.
KANGAS: Right. It certainly did. On the downside, Providian Financial (PVN)
led the troops.
CHERNEY: Sub prime lenders and real concerns about their ability to repay loans.
KANGAS: And Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI).
CHERNEY: Here's a company that was in the generic drug business and the day
that they announced that they were going to start looking to do branded drugs,
it dropped like a rock.
KANGAS: All right, now let's look at some winners in the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Ariba (ARBA) had a rather nice percentage move, didn't it?
CHERNEY: On a percentage basis, yes. But you have to realize that this stock
got hammered going into September. So the rebound is as much technical as anything.
KANGAS: And there we see Network Appliance.
CHERNEY: Yes. Good performance shows up in a couple of different Indexes.
KANGAS: It sure does. On the downside, McLeod USA.
CHERNEY: That's the telecom and the troubles that this company has had have
just been over and over, credit quality concerns, etc.
KANGAS: And Verisign (VRSN) had a bad time of it.
CHERNEY: Internet related, you know? The authentication for purchases, etc.
KANGAS: All right. We have half a minute, Paul. As Chief Market Analyst for
standard & Poor's, what do you think about the market in the next six months?
CHERNEY: I think that there's a possibility that we'll see a struggle for the
upside, but I think that the upside will be the ultimate resolution over the next
six months. Retracements will be viewed by the markets as buying opportunities,
but I think that a lot of the money sitting on the sidelines will want to see
a little bit more tangible proof that the economy has turned a corner and that
earnings will improve.
KANGAS: Very good. And thanks so much for being with us, Paul. And a Happy
New Year to you.
CHERNEY: Happy New Year to you.
KANGAS: Paul Cherney, Chief Real Time Market Analyst for Standard & Poor's.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later
date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice. © 2001 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc.
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12/31/01: Paul
Kangas' Wall Street Wrap Up
PAUL KANGAS: To no one's great surprise, the stock market opened slightly lower
in quiet trading today feeling the downside pressure of some last minute tax-loss
selling on this final day of trading of the year. The Dow Industrial Average fell
30 points by 10:30 a.m., while the NASDAQ Index posted nearly a 15 point loss.
In the absence of any major reports on the economy and a brokerage community being
staffed by skeleton crews, the market continued to drift lower for the rest of
the morning and throughout the noon-hour. At 1:00 p.m., the Dow was down 53 points
and the NASDAQ Index was off about 13. The afternoon brought some minor bargain
hunting which cut the Dow's loss to 20 points around 2:15 p.m., but there was
no follow-through and a late spurt of selling sent the Dow Industrial Average
to a closing loss of 115.49 points, putting it at 10,021.50. The NASDAQ Index
ended with a loss of 36.86 at 1950.40.
Big board volume moved up about 51 million shares from Friday. And down volume
exceeded up volume by almost 2 to 1.
The Dow Transport Index off a little over 3 points.
Utilities down 0.56.
The Closing Tick, a very minor bullish +137.
Standard & Poor's 500 off nearly 13 points.
About a 7 1/2-point drop on the 100.
The MidCap 400 off nearly 6 1/4.
Bridge Futures Price Index down 1.33.
New York Stock Exchange Composite off a little over 4 1/2.
A little over 2 1/2-point drop on the Value Line.
Russell2000 Small Cap Index fell 5.12.
And the broadly-based Wilshire 5000 ending the year with nearly a 111-point
loss, 1 percent.
The bond market staged a solid technical rebound today following Friday's sell-off,
but with trading activity as thin as it was, it didn't take much buying to lift
prices. A $0.57 per barrel drop in New York February oil futures was a plus factor,
and so was the downturn in the stock market which prompted some safe haven buying.
At the early 2:00 p.m. closing, tax free and corporate issues were up 1/2 to 3/4
of a point on average. And the Treasury market did well across the board.
The 5-year notes rising 12/32.
The 10-year notes up 20/32.
The 30-year bond gained 1 full point.
And the Lehman Brothers Long-Term Treasury Bond Index was up nearly 10 1/2
points.
As you've already seen, it was a very dull day on Wall Street. But the bears
were out and they set the trend, down 115 1/2 points on the Dow. But the broader
market actually higher by 48 issues. 134 new yearly highs as against only 16 new
lows.
Lucent Technologies (LU) topped the active list on 14.7 million shares, edging
up $0.11.
Followed by Solectron (SLR), which gained $0.53.
Then General Electric (GE) ending the year just over $40 a share with that
$0.67 loss.
Compaq Computer (CPQ) fell $0.13.
EMC (EMC), an $0.11 loss, and fifth in volume.
Motorola (MOT) managed to gain $0.12.
And then AOL Time Warner (AOL) a $1 drop.
Waters Corporation (WAT) off $1.25.
Halliburton Company (HAL) a $0.09.
Tenth in volume was NorTel Networks (NT), gaining $0.24.
AT&T (T) ended the year at $18.14, with a $0.04 loss.
Bristol-Myers (BMY) dropping $0.80, although Goldman Sachs said buy on the
weakness. But one of the problems for the company, its partner, ImClone Corporation
(IMCL) failed to get FDA approval for its cancer drug called Erbitux.
Citigroup (C) ended the year at $50.48, down $0.71.
Eastman Kodak (EK) a loss of $1.05. The new "Baron's" financial magazine
notes that analyst Marc Roberts (ph) is recommending this stock should be sold
short. He sees a dividend cut coming.
Home Depot (HD) down $0.49.
And IBM (IBM) ended the year at almost $121 a share, but down $1.94.
America West Holdings (AWA) the best percentage gainer of the day. The Federal
Air Transportation Stabilization Board has approved a $380 million loan guarantee.
Of course, it has various conditions for the company.
USAirways (U), however, was up in sympathy with that news, gaining $0.74.
MetroGas (MGS) a nice move of $1.35. But we were unable to get through to their
offices in Argentina. The company was closed today. It's in the gas distribution
business.
Boyds Collection (FOB) down $0.93, the biggest percentage loser, well, they
were closed today, as so many offices were, and they're in the collectible business.
TETRA Technologies (TTI) down $1.88. No one at the company returned our calls.
Just one of those days, folks, you can understand.
Tower Auto (TWR) losing $0.37. It's going to take a $289 million fourth quarter
charge related to job cuts, relocation expenses, etc.
Nasdaq trading, a loss of nearly 37 points in the Composite Index today. Volume
up to 1.4 billion shares, a little heavier than Friday, and just about 93 more
issues on the up side than on the down side.
Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list, down $1.62. The nine states that are
opposed to the government's anti-trust settlement with the company have asked
a federal judge to reject the company's request for a delay in the sanction hearin |
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