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Program: Monday, October 13, 2003
10/13/03: Motorola Motivates Investors
SUSIE GHARIB: Another solid day of gains on Wall Street. The Dow rose almost 90 points, and the NASDAQ added 18, closing at a 19-month high. Investors continue to be encouraged by earnings news. And the strong report from Motorola today gave more reason for optimism. Motorola announced its third-quarter results a day early, surprising investors with $0.05 a share, that was $0.02 better than estimates. Motorola also said its fourth-quarter revenues should come in better than current estimates, in the range of $7.5 billion to $7.8 billion. Analysts say the company released earnings a day early to counteract last Friday's downgrade of Motorola debt by Moody's.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
SUSIE GHARIB: Our guest tonight used to be a perennial bear, but she now says she hasn't been this bullish in years. Joining us now, Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist for SunGard Institutional Brokerage. Hi, Gail, nice to have you back. GAIL DUDACK, STRATEGIST, SUNGARD INSTITUTIONAL BROKERAGE: Hi, Susie. Good to be back. GHARIB: All right. So tell us what has changed. What do you see in the markets that's made you bullish? DUDACK: Well, it's really a number of different things. But I would say that, you know, we started this year thinking and worrying about the risk of deflation, which is always a risk after a bubble burst like we had, but I think this has been one of the best crafted combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus packages I've ever seen. And the market really sensed that turn back in March. GHARIB: And so what is your forecast from here, not for the rest of this year, but going forward into 2004? DUDACK: Well, in 2004, with those earnings, I think you can see the market going higher. I've got a target of 1130 in the S&P. Short term, though, I think... GHARIB: 1130 for the S&P, from where it is now, you're talking about what, 7, 8 percent increase? DUDACK: Right. Yes, pretty much in-line with what I think earnings will be doing next year. GHARIB: I'm sorry, Gail. I just missed the last part of what you were saying there. DUDACK: I said the market will gain in-line with what earnings will do next year. I think we're seeing some very good earnings. That's what today's market was all about. Keep in mind that the markets discounted a lot of good earnings already in current prices. GHARIB: Now, you used to be - one of the big red flags that you always put up, you were concerned about debt, consumer debt and about corporations being highly leveraged. That's not a worry of yours anymore? DUDACK: Well, you know, if you look at what happened in the last couple of years and couple of months, I mean, the corporations - the corporate debt was a problem, we saw that, Enron, WorldCom, that was really the 2001-2002 problem. And we're seeing corporations restructure debt, we're seeing better cash flow. As we started this year, my biggest concern was household debt. You know the household has been really escalating their mortgage levels recently. But when you start to scratch the surface of what's going on with households, I think that debt is going to be quite manageable. GHARIB: I understand that you don't like talking about specific stocks, but tell us what sectors and what industry groups you're finding attractive right now. DUDACK: Well, you know, we're at the top of what I think is a fair-value range, and I would not suggest chasing stocks here, but there are some terrific stocks that have lagged the market, like the energy group. A good portion of S&P earnings in the third and fourth quarter will come from energy and yet they have lagged the market, and let's not forget they have very good total return, especially, you know, the big cap energy stocks. I like that combination of potential gain and a high dividend. GHARIB: What else besides energy? DUDACK: Well, I think that if you're looking long term and you want to be strategic, which I always am, there's really only one sector of the economy that will grow faster than GDP and that's health care. And we think about health care, I don't think about just big cap pharma stocks, I think about biotech, generics, HMOs, medical supplies and devices. I think a lot of medical devices are really going to prove to be the technology stocks of this decade. GHARIB: OK, very interesting. Gail, thank you so much. We've been speaking with Gail Dudack of SunGuard Institutional Brokerage.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
10/13/03: The Cell Phone Numbers Game Is About To Change
PAUL KANGAS: You'll soon be able to switch your wireless carrier without changing your phone number. The rule change takes effect November 24, and was ordered by the Federal Communications Commission. But as Stephanie Woods reports, that simple change could have a major impact on the wireless industry. STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Already nearly a third of wireless customers switch companies each year. Analysts predict even more customers will hang up on their wireless carrier once they can take their number with them. PAT COMACK, TELECOM ANALYST, GUZMAN: It's going to be a bloody war, and I think it's going to be worse than people think. And I think the industry cancellation rates, or churn rates, will skyrocket. And it's going to really squeeze wireless profitability next year. WOODS: Wireless companies are preparing for November 24, when the battle officially begins. AT&T's (T) latest ad campaign is aimed at connecting with customers' emotions, not price. MARK SIEGEL, V.P., AT&T MEDIA RELATIONS: It really is to get back to the reason that people use wireless to begin with, which is to maintain those emotional connections in their lives. You'd never know that from looking at just about all wireless advertising, which is all about the latest equipment discounts, how many free minutes am I gonna get this month, what's the latest hot deal. This cuts through all that. WOODS: Nextel (NXTL) is already playing up number portability on its Web site. And Sprint PCS (PCS) is dealing with the competition by pumping over $2 billion into its network and aggressively marketing a bundle of services. Analysts are watching to see if the increased competition drives prices and profits lower. BLAIR LEVIN, TELECOM ANALYST, LEGG MASON: Are we going to have a situation where a lot of people flock to say, Verizon (VZ), which I think has the reputation for the best network, causing people without as good a network, and without the ability to bundle, say, for example, T-Mobile, to lower their prices to a level where it forces - it makes the whole industry less profitable. WOODS: With some customers locked in by long-term contracts, and companies aggressively marketing to keep those customers, analysts say it may take six to nine months before the full impact of number portability is felt in the industry. Stephanie Woods, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
10/13/03: Will Retailers Discover Big Sales Figures This Columbus Day?
SUSIE GHARIB: Columbus Day may be a holiday for many Americans, but for the nation's retailers, it's an important business barometer. Today's shopping receipts provide one of the first glimpses into the all-important holiday season. As Erika Miller reports, there are reasons for merchants to be merry. ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It's Columbus Day, a holiday known for its parades, as well as the Columbus Day sales offered by many retailers. At the Bloomingdale's flagship store in New York City, there were crowds of shoppers buying coats and cold weather clothing. Retail analysts say today's receipts will provide an early window into the crucial holiday season. WALTER LOEB, RETAIL ANALYST, LOEB ASSOCIATES: I think a good Columbus Day could mean that we're going to have a good fall and Christmas season. MILLER: Loeb is predicting holiday sales will rise 5 or 6 percent at discounters. He sees a gain of 4 to 5 percent for specialty retailers, but just 2 percent for department stores. Part of the reason is the improving economy and rising stock market. But there are also easy comparisons to last year. Some analysts worry a weak job market and other factors could restrain spending. LINDA KRISTIANSEN, RETAIL ANALYST, UBS: Income growth is definitely one of the factors. Also, we've seen a lot of stimulus from mortgage refinancings, and that's starting to moderate as well. MILLER: Like previous years, merchandise is expected to be heavily discounted throughout the holiday season. LOEB: Retailers have planned sales in anticipation of an average season. They want to motivate customers to come into the store. There will be many sales. MILLER: But those discounts are not expected to be as deep as last year, because retailers are keeping a tight lid on inventories. Investors are betting the strategy will pay off on the bottom line. The Standard & Poor's retail index is up more than 50 percent in the past seven months, but that run-up has some analysts concerned. KRISTIANSEN: There's a lot of enthusiasm built-up because of back-to-school. And I think against that enthusiasm, there's probably going to be some disappointment when the fourth quarter gets under way. So I think things will slow down for both sales and the stocks. MILLER: For many merchants, the next few months will make or break their year. The holiday season generally accounts for about 50 percent of retailers' annual sales, and an even bigger percentage of profits. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 10/13/03: Peter Cappelli, Professor of Management at the Wharton School On What Makes A Leader
SUSIE GHARIB: NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT will soon mark its 25th year on public television. And to celebrate that distinction, we have joined with the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania to select the most influential business persons of the past 25 years. Our viewers submitted over 700 nominations. Now a panel of Wharton judges will make the final selection, which we will announce early next year. I recently spoke with Peter Cappelli, professor of management at the Wharton School, about the selection criteria, and began by asking him what are the qualities of leaders who inspire. PETER CAPPELLI, PROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT, WHARTON: We're looking for leaders who inspire organizations and the people in them to do difficult things. And the most important of those is probably the ability to articulate a vision for the people in the organization; that is a goal of here's where we're going to go, and here's how we're going to get there, and here's why it's important once we get there. So I think this vision is really probably the key thing. GHARIB: And I guess to execute a vision, this leader would have to be able to really motivate people to get them galvanized behind a cause. CAPPELLI: Yes, I think, you know, the key attribute of a leader really is his ability to motivate people, and part of motivating them is to articulate this vision. And part of it, as well, is figuring out the tools and the mechanisms that an executive at the top of an organization can have in order to get people to do the right sorts of things. GHARIB: And in order to motivate people, I guess you have to have really good communications skills. CAPPELLI: I think communications skills are crucial as a way of explaining to people where you're going and why you want to get there. And I think, as well, there are a whole series of skills about how organizations work, things about, for example, creating the kind of incentives for people to do the right things, creating the kind of pressure for organizational change, giving people a sense of ownership, all those sorts of things. GHARIB: The other characteristic that we want to talk about, leaders who have transformed a company or an industry. So are we talking here about creativity, about thinking out of the box? CAPPELLI: Well, I think the key attribute about transforming organizations is related to this issue of motivation, and that is to get people to behave in different ways. In many cases, it's harder to take an existing organization and to try to get it to change the way it operates than it is to start up something new and begin with a blank slate. And I think the reason that transformation is so important is that, if you can get it done, you know, it's fundamentally important, and we think about people like, for example Lou Gerstner at IBM (IBM) or even Jack Welch who took a pretty good organization and made it better, all understood the tools and techniques that an executive has at their disposal to create sense of ownership, create pressure for change, all those sorts of things. GHARIB: How much of a difference can one person really make in terms of transforming an organization or to what extent is it involving real teamwork? CAPPELLI: Well, I think one of the reasons why we pay so much attention to CEOs is that CEOs can make an enormous difference because they have control over so many different levers in the organization to create the environment that makes change possible and makes it possible to transform organizations. They obviously can't do it by themselves, but they create the context in which other people feel the motivation to do it. So in some ways they are like the leader of an orchestra. GHARIB: So Peter, you are a professor of management, can the skills that you're talking about be taught, or are they innate? CAPPELLI: Yes, I think all of these skills can be taught. Most of them are understanding how organizations work, and that is understanding the levers that the leader at the top of the organization can use in order to create the context that motivates people to act differently. I think the part that is difficult for many people is this part of articulating a vision, and that requires certainly some good communication skills. But I think where people get confused is thinking that it requires charisma. Charisma is about getting the people around you to identify with you and to identify with your personal goals and personal vision. But you can articulate vision for an organization which is not necessarily about you per se, and in many ways, I think that's healthier and better. GHARIB: It sounds very interesting. Peter Capelli, thank you very much. CAPPELLI: Thank you. Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 10/13/03: Commentary: Multinational Employment Exports
SUSIE GHARIB: In tonight's commentary, the role of multinational companies in creating jobs here in the U.S. Here's Glenn Hubbard, professor of economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, and former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. GLENN HUBBARD, COMMENTARTY: Talk of a jobless recovery in the U.S. is prompting complaints that our multinational companies are exporting jobs, not things. Traditionally thought of as strong brands that brought income to America, multinationals are now cast by some as job killers. Congress is considering giving special treatment to companies operating only in the U.S. to keep jobs at home. That idea is intuitive and wrong. Multinational bashers assume that a firm has only a certain number of plants and workers, so expanding abroad means less investment and fewer jobs at home. But that may not be the case. Cost savings and gains in market access mean the multinational can be bigger at home, too. GE (GE) has manufacturing and assembly jobs for CT-scan equipment in China. The cost savings plus market access in China enable GE to offer many higher-paying jobs in South Carolina and Wisconsin. Data collected by the Commerce Department tells the same story. Expanding activity abroad brings more jobs at home, even in manufacturing, particularly higher-paying jobs. What about those jobs we have been losing then? High productivity growth means we can make things with less labor. That's good. It's the key to our rising standard of living, and will create job opportunities in new firms and industries. While policy should focus on helping workers make transitions to new jobs, bashing multinationals will hurt American wealth and jobs at home. I'm Glenn Hubbard. Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 10/13/03: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened with a strong upturn thanks in part to those better- than-expected earnings from Motorola and its upbeat outlook. Brokerage upgrades on Computer Associates (CA), BMC Corp. (BMC), and FedEx (FDX) also fueled the early rally. After an hour of trading, the Dow was up 104 points, the NASDAQ Composite rose 24. The market gradually backed down because of the light trading volume, which was no surprise, with the banks, the bond market and the federal offices closed for the observance of Columbus Day. But by late afternoon, stocks had rebounded moderately, thanks to an overriding optimism that the majority of third-quarter corporate earnings will be quite impressive. The Dow moved back up to close with a gain of 89.70 points, putting it at 9764.38. The NASDAQ Composite rose 18.22 points, ending at 1933.53. And the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 7.29 points to close at 1045.35. The most active big board issue was General Electric (GE), trading 21.2 million shares, the stock down $0.39. The "Heard on the Street" column in today's "Wall Street Journal" was not particularly bullish about GE's growth outlook. Motorola (MOT) edging up $0.08 on those better-than-expected earnings and rather upbeat outlook. Lucent Technologies (LU) gained $0.02. Pfizer (PFE), an $0.08 loss. And then Computer Associates (CA) rising $1.15 after Lehman Brothers brokerage upgraded it from equal weight to overweight. AOL Time Warner (AOL) edged $0.02 higher. This coming Thursday the company will officially have its name change to Time Warner. And the new trading symbol will be TWX. Corning Incorporated (GLW) rose $0.15. EMC (EMC), a $0.04 loss. Micron Technology (MU) dropped $0.24. Banc of America downgraded it from buy to neutral citing weak DRAM prices. It also cut its price target for Micron stock from $19 down to $11 a share. Nokia (NOK), tenth in volume, dropped a nickel a share. FedEx Corp. (FDX) up $2.79, getting a boost from Merrill Lynch which upgraded it from neutral to buy. And then a good gainer also, International Game Technology (IGT) rising $3.07. Harrah's Entertainment (HET) will buy at least 11,000 of the company's coinless gaming machines. And then Merrill Lynch upgraded IGT stock to neutral to a buy. Vulcan Materials (VMC) rose $3.48. The company increased third-quarter earnings estimate buy - well, to as much as $0.91 a share. And that would be way up from $0.75 a year ago in that same period. Smithfield Foods (SFD) rising $1.64. Positive reaction to the company's acquisition of Farmland Industries' pork operations for $367 million in cash. The Sports Authority (TSA) arriving (ph), a good day, up $2.79. The company sees third-quarter earnings of around $0.13 to $0.15 a share, way up from the $0.04 Street estimate. And for the full year, the company sees around $2 in earnings, up from the Street estimate of $1.88. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) rose $3.52, in the same business as The Sports Authority. Banc of America sees annual earnings growth for Dick's Sporting Goods of around 17 percent, and it upgraded the stock from neutral to a buy. On the downside, Convergys (CVG) dropping $1.02. Goldman Sachs downgraded it from in-line to underperform. And then Trex Company (TWP) up $3.04. The company stock open (ph) on a block of 29,700 shares with a gain of 2.20 from Friday's close. Legg Mason brokerage suggested it could be short covering going on there. This company makes composite decking products incidentally. NASDAQ's most active issue, Intel (INTC), rising $0.37. Followed by Microsoft (MSFT), down $0.13. eBay (EBAY) dropped $1.47, the Smith Barney brokerage issued a sell on eBay. Cisco Systems (CSCO) gained $0.21. Yahoo! (YHOO) down $0.26, number five in dollar volume. Oracle (ORCL) was down a nickel a share, but after the close, the company's CFO said he is cautionly optimistic on technology spending's outlook. Applied Materials (AMAT) gained $0.25. And Dell (DELL), a $0.35 gain. KLA-Tencor (KLAC) was down $0.49. Amgen (AMGN) had a decent day, up $1.08 a share. Red Hat (RHAT) rising $2.19. McDonald Investments upgraded it from hold to buy. It did the same with Citrix Systems (CTXS), Adobe (ADBE), and others in that group. And most of the stocks reacted positively. Silent Witness Enterprises (SILW), look at that gain, 59.5 percent. After the close Friday, this manufacturer of video surveillance equipment got an offer to be bought out by Honeywell (HON) for $8.53 a share cash. Honeywell today was up $1.27, $28.77. Over on the American Exchange, Ultra Petroleum (UPL) rose $1.35. Raymond James financial brokerage repeated a strong buy there. And also on the American, Greenbriar (GBR) moving up $1.78, or 31 percent gain. The company has declared a two-for-one stock split. And those are the "Stocks in the News" tonight.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 10/13/03: Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9764.38 +89.70 + .9
HIGH 9783.49
LOW 9675.57
NASDAQ COMP. 1933.53 +18.22 +1.0
HIGH 1940.97
LOW 1921.96
VOLUME 1,040.6
PREVIOUS 1,109.2
UP VOLUME 778.6
DOWN VOLUME 249.5
DOW TRANSPORTS 2874.72 +51.17 + 1.8
DOW UTILITIES 253.91 +.91 + .4
CLOSING TICK +719
S&P 500 1045.35 +7.29 + .7
S&P 100 520.97 +2.92 + .6
MIDCAP 400 543.45 +6.14 + 1.1
REUTERS/CRB 247.75 +1.46 + .6
NYSE COMPOSITE 5940.75 +43.75 + .7
VALUE LINE 340.59 +4.16 1.24
RUSSELL 2000 527.57 +8.51 1.64
WILSHIRE 5000 10167.76 +82.44 0.82
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.125%
Sept. 15,2008 99 30/32 CLOSED 3.14
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2013 99 27/32 CLOSED 4.27
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 103 2/32 CLOSED 5.16
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1713.61 CLOSED
DOW CLOSE 9764.38 +89.70 + .9
ADVANCES 2305
DECLINES 915
NEW HIGHS 484
NEW LOWS 2
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
GE GE 28.93 -.39 -1.3
MOT Motorola 13.87 +.08 +.6
LU Lucent Tech 2.38 +.02 +.9
PFE Pfizer 30.67 -.08 -.3
CA Computer Assoc 24.65 +1.15 +4.9
AOL AOL Time Warner 15.75 +.02 +.1
GLW Corning 11.10 +.15 +1.4
EMC EMC Corp 14.45 -.04 -.3
MU Micron Tech 12.54 -.24 -1.9
NOK Nokia 17.26 -.05 -.3
NASDAQ CLOSE 1933.53 + 18.22 + 1.0
VOLUME 1,500.5
PREVIOUS 1,466.1
ADVANCES 2205
DECLINES 977
NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC Intel 30.80 +.37 +1.2
MSFT Microsoft 28.78 -.13 -.5
EBAY eBay 58.99 -1.47 -2.4
CSCO Cisco Systems 21.00 +.21 +1.0
YHOO Yahoo! 42.90 -.26 -.6
ORCL Oracle 12.28 -.05 -.4
AMAT Applied Matl 21.00 +.25 +1.2
DELL Dell Inc 35.82 +.35 +1.0
KLAC KLA Tencor 58.11 -.49 -.8
AMGN Amgen 67.14 +1.08 +1.6
AMEX CLOSE 1023.69 + 6.63 + .7
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 97.90 +.61 +.6
QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.24 +.23 +.7
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 104.90 +.33 +.3
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
FDX FedEx Corp 71.35 +2.79 +4.1
IGT Intl Game Tech 31.16 +3.07 +10.9
VMC Vulcan Materials 45.45 +3.48 +8.3
SFD Smithfield Foods 20.85 +1.64 +8.5
TSA Sports Authority 37.79 +2.79 +8.0
DKS Dicks Sporting 43.77 +3.52 +8.8
CVG Convergys 19.57 -1.02 -5.0
TWP Trex Company 35.09 +3.04 +9.5
RHAT Red Hat 12.97 +2.19 +20.3
SILW Silent Witness 8.60 +3.21 +59.6
UPL Ultra Petroleum 18.60 +1.35 +7.8
GBR Greenbriar 7.48 +1.78 +31.2
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