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Program: Monday, November 10, 2003
11/10/03: Oil-It's Slippery But Stable
SUSIE GHARIB: A nervous day of trading in the oil markets today. Terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia over the weekend fueled anxieties about the vulnerability of oil supplies. Crude prices spiked in early trading, topping more than $31 a barrel, before settling at $30.88, up $0.03. Suzanne Pratt has more. SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: At the New York Mercantile Exchange, all eyes were fixed on oil prices today after this weekend`s suicide bombing in Saudi Arabia. Traders are once again worried about Middle Eastern oil supplies, particularly because the Saudis produce one-third of the crude pumped by OPEC. Any disruption of Saudi production would have profound effects on worldwide energy costs. ERIC BOLLING, INDEPENDENT OIL TRADER: I think the White House has made a statement saying that Saudi Arabia should be prepared for things like this. And that may be an indication that we may be interested in doing something else. If that, in fact, materializes then prices will be higher and susceptible to higher moves up. PRATT: Some analysts say if the Saudis were taken out of the oil supply chain, crude could spurt as high as $80 a barrel. Right now, however, that level is a long way off. December crude is trading just shy of $31 a barrel, $6 more than it started the year and close to its October high. Lately, oil prices have also been getting support from signs of a stronger U.S. economy, which in turn could fuel demand. On top of that, winter descended on the Northeast over the weekend, raising fresh concerns about heating oil supplies. Still, some experts believe barring a global crisis or an overthrowing of the Saudi government, crude prices are probably approaching a near-term peak. FADEL GHEIT, OIL ANALYST, OPPENHEIMER: My bet is still that we will probably see oil prices six months from now in the $24 to $25 range, which is acceptable to our economy and our way of thinking, and also generates enough money for OPEC to keep the current regimes stable. PRATT: The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for December 4. There has been talk in the market of another cut in production at that meeting, but experts say whether it happens is anyone`s guess. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
PAUL KANGAS: Reaching out and changing your phone service is about to get easier. This afternoon, the Federal Communications Commission ordered the nation`s phone providers to let customers take their numbers with them when moving from a wired to wireless phone or when changing wireless providers. Stephanie Woods reports. STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Amy Stein cut the cord three years ago. She no longer has a hardwired phone in her home. Instead, she prefers to stay connected on the go. AMY STEIN, WIRELESS CUSTOMER: When I had a house phone, nobody called me on my house phone, anyway. Everybody just really called me on my cell phone, and that was just the easiest way to reach me, so my house phone became obsolete. WOODS: Stein figures she saved $60 a month disconnecting her landline phone. And soon it`s going to be easier to make that switch. Beginning November 24, the Federal Communications Commission will require telephone companies to let customers transfer their phone number to new service providers, whether cellular or landline. FCC Commissioner Kathleen Abernathy says the move will benefit consumers. KATHLEEN ABERNATHY, COMMISSIONER, FCC: What this means now is that if you have a number that you are particularly attached to for business reasons, family and friends know it, that you can hold on to that number even though you switch carriers. WOODS: In the past two years nearly 3 million Americans have disconnected their landline phones. Some of those are second lines. A smaller portion are customers like Stein, who replaced landline service with wireless. Analysts expect that trend to grow. Consulting firm AMS expects between 2 and 3 million people to dump their wire-line phones and replace them with wireless in the next two years. DAVID MEREDITH, VICE PRESIDENT, AMS: The other side effect from wireless number portability will be lower prices and fierce price competition that will drive the price points down on the wireless side, and many people will want to replace their local phone bill with wireless service. WOODS: Still, disconnecting from a wired line won`t be for everyone. Analysts say the quality and reliability and the use of hard lines for computers will keep many customers hardwired. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/10/03: "Innovation Island"-Part 1: Taiwan's Next Big Thing SUSIE GHARIB: Taiwan is an island the size of Maryland with the economy the size of Russia. It`s a leader in producing much of the high-tech gear now used around the world, and it now finds itself facing a challenging future. Tonight, we begin a week-long series of reports looking at Taiwan, called "Innovation Island." As Washington bureau chief Darren Gersh reports, for Taiwan, the next big thing is very small. DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: At Taiwan`s Nanotechnology Research Center, success in the lab is measured a billionth of a meter at a time. These scientists are dealing with the basic building blocks of matter, pushing around 10 atoms here, 20 atoms there, and in the process discovering new magnetic, chemical, and optical properties. Bob Yang runs the national nanotechnology program at Taiwan`s Industrial Technology Research Institute. BOB YANG, TAIWAN NATIONAL NANOTECHNOLOGY PROGRAM: It is like you are discovering a whole new set of innovation opportunities, and that`s the real power behind nanotechnology. GERSH: As the world`s leading manufacturer of LCD displays, motherboards and notebook computers, Taiwan has built a $300 billion economy powered by low-cost, high-tech manufacturing. Yang believes nano is the key to maintaining Taiwan`s competitive edge. YANG: Nanotechnology is being an enabling technology, people who are already good at high-tech manufacturing should be able to use nanotechnology more to their advantage. GERSH: Nano-medicines and nano-robots are still the stuff of science fiction, but Yang sees practical uses for nano, from cheap, high-quality displays to nano-powered mobile phone batteries that could last for 50 days. Nanotechnology is one of eight key industries Taiwan has targeted for development, budgeting $620 million for research over the next six years. And the plans are ambitious: ramp up to a $19 billion industry in five years and go nano three times faster than the rest of the world. It is a race experts here say Taiwan cannot afford to lose as it retools its high-tech economy. For decades Taiwan`s strategy has been to manufacture technology faster and cheaper than the competition. But as developing countries like China climb the technology ladder, Taiwan is now forced to work faster and smarter. That`s a message that reaches to the top of Taiwan`s government. Vice Premier Lin Hsin-I runs economic policy in Taiwan. Like the former auto industry CEO he is, Lin pulls out a flip chart to explain where Taiwan is and where it needs to be. The bottom line of the graph is the value chain beginning with R&D, moving to manufacturing, and finally marketing and branding. The vertical line is value-added. LIN HSIN-I, VICE PREMIER, TAIWAN: These two sides is the high value-added. GERSH: Innovation and marketing, these high-profit, value-added sweet spots, are in the corners of the graph. Manufacturing is at the bottom. LIN: So it`s the smiling curve. GERSH: So where would Taiwan - you want Taiwan to move where on this smile graph here? LIN: In Taiwan, very strong in this manufacturing and assembly. So we have to segment, different segment with the developing countries, with upgrading more value-added manufactures. GERSH: Over and over again, people here talk about the need to move off the bottom of the smiling curve and move up to nanotechnology, biotechnology and other knowledge industries. If that sounds familiar to Americans it should. LIN: We can see that American firms, they are grading up, more new economy, more high value added, more high-tech industry. I think it is a similar case. GERSH: In the last few years there is a new urgency to transforming the economy. As a developed nation, it is now too expensive to produce many products in Taiwan. Unemployment, for decades almost non-existent, hovers near 5 percent. Moving up the smiling curve has its costs. LIN: It means the low-end products, low-skilled products, we can outsource from some very low labor cost countries, buy from them, but some key components, more value-added components, have to shift manufacture here. GERSH: The economic choices Taiwan is now making will also dictate its political future. The island has flourished under the security blanket of the United States, but as mainland China draws more investment and attention, Taiwan is anxious to protect its strategic role as a key supplier to the U.S. high- tech industry. THOMAS MCGOWAN, AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE/TAIPEI: Taiwan`s biggest risk is being marginalized, becoming not relevant, right, where if you come back in two years and ask me the question, why should the U.S. care about Taiwan? And the answer is, it shouldn`t. GERSH: In its struggle to stay relevant, to keep climbing the technology ladder, Taiwan faces the same challenge as Silicon Valley an ocean away. YANG: Competition just fast and cutthroat. It`s the same here, OK. And all these people they are also engaging in global competition too. So getting the new technology, taking the most advantage of these new technologies is absolutely crucial for their survival. GERSH: But moving from a low-cost manufacturing economy to a knowledge economy won`t be easy, and just like the walk signs on every street corner in Taipei, Taiwan finds it has to run ever faster if it is to make the transition in time. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Taiwan.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/10/03: Commentary: Hard Work Doesn't Always Add Up To Success In The Real World
SUSIE GHARIB: If you work hard, you`ll make money and get ahead in business, right? Well, tonight`s commentator says that theory doesn`t always prove right in the real world. Here`s Glenn Hubbard, professor of economics at Columbia University and the former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. GLENN HUBBARD, COMMENTARY: A recent study by a prominent economist quantifies what many economists and travelers have long suspected: Americans now work much harder than do the Germans, French and Italians. Now, it`s not that Americans don`t get joie de vivre. In the 1970s, Western Europeans worked more than Americans. What has changed is that very high tax rates on work have reduced both work and output across the Atlantic. And the difference in the rates on work actually explains most of this difference in hours worked. For decades now, economists have argued that the marginal tax rate, the tax rate on our last dollar of earnings, is an important determinant of how hard we work. Higher rates make work less attractive, reducing our economy`s output. Higher rates also discourage risk-taking and entrepreneurship, the source of our economy`s dynamism. Hence, the broad consensus for the pro-work, pro-entrepreneurship marginal rate cuts of President Bush. This story also has an important lesson for the U.S. Part of the tax on work comes from Social Security. At present, benefits are not too tightly related to contributions. Allowing a role for personal accounts, in which funds are invested, cuts marginal tax rates for many households. This change would increase work and output and make reform easier. For these reasons, marginal tax rates are likely to play a role in the presidential campaign. And let`s hope Europe catches on. Greater success there is good for us, too. I`m Glenn Hubbard.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views
of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/10/03: Last Word: Will The "Governator" Ride The Reagan Ranch In Sacramento?
SUSIE GHARIB: And finally, one of the challenges of taking a new job in a new city is finding a new place to live. Well, that`s what`s facing California`s governor-elect, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who`s house-hunting in Sacramento. He`s already put his Southern California compound on the market, it`s priced at $18 million. So what could he buy in Sacramento in that range? According to realtors, a whole subdivision. There aren`t many million-dollar mansions in California`s capital. But interestingly, there is one possibility. That`s because Ronald Reagan`s old place is for sale, Paul, at a reasonable $5.9 million.
KANGAS: You know, California does have a governor`s mansion, and the last to live there were the Reagans in 1967. But they didn`t like it. They said it was too small for entertaining and Nancy said it was a fire trap.
GHARIB: That`s an interesting piece of news. Thank you very, Paul.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views
of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/10/03:
"Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street`s blue chips opened higher a $2-gain in IBM (IBM) stock thanks to a positive article in "Barron`s" financial. But a weak semiconductor group put the NASDAQ market on the defensive. After an hour of trading, the Dow had given up an early 14-point advance to post a 30-point loss, while the NASDAQ Index was down 13 points. With no major economic news or earnings reports, the markets drifted lower, undermined further by brokerage downgrades on Whirlpool (WHR) and Adobe Systems (ADBE). At noon, the Dow was off 47 points, NASDAQ down 17. Concerns about the market`s relatively high valuation after its recent surge kept buyers on the sidelines and sellers active. So the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended with a loss of 53.25 points at 9756.53. The NASDAQ Composite fell 29 points to 1941.64. The Standard & Poor 500 lost 6 points to 1047.11. Over in the bond market, the 10-year note fell 2/32 to 98 14/32, putting the yield at 4.45 percent.
Topping the active list on the New York Exchange is Lucent Technologies (LU), trading 19.5 million shares on the big board. The stock edging a penny higher.
Followed by Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), down $0.65. The Dutch conglomerate Philips Electronics (PHG) began selling a 2.4 percent stake in Taiwan Semiconductor. And that will cut Philips holdings in Taiwan to 19.1 percent.
Motorola (MOT) down $0.71.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) dropped nearly a dollar. Lehman Brothers cut first-quarter revenue forecasts, citing lower-than-expected printer sales.
Wyeth (WYE) was down $0.53, fifth in big board volume.
Micron Technology (MU) fell $0.77.
AT&T Wireless (AWE), a $0.07-loss there.
GE (GE) moved up a nickel a share.
And NorTel Networks (NT) down $0.02.
And Circuit City (CC), tenth in volume, gained a full dollar. Jefferies & Company brokerage upgraded Circuit City from hold to buy and has a $15 a share price target for the stock.
There you see it, IBM (IBM), the star of the Dow today, up $1.69. And it traded as high as $90.47. Very positive cover story in this week`s "Barron`s" financial magazine, saying Big Blue`s servers are gaining market share while its software sales are increasing. And the article also suggests that 2004 earnings for IBM could rise as much as 15 percent to $5 a share.
As you heard earlier, Moore Wallace (MWL), the big Canadian printing firm, is going to be taken over by R.R. Donnelly for $2.8 billion in stock. That`s 0.63 shares of Donnelly, Donnelly stock fell $1.47 to $26.56. So the deal today is worth $16.73 in Donnelly stock to the Moore Wallace shareholders.
Redwood Trust (RWT) had a good day, up $3.61. This company is a manager of residential mortgage loans. It declared a special dividend of $4.75 a share cash. And will boost the quarterly dividend from $0.65 to $0.67 a share starting next year.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) down $2.02. The company cut its third-quarter earnings forecast from $0.33 down to $0.29 after some copper anode sales were booked in the third quarter, the company said they should be booked in the fourth quarter.
Whirlpool Corporation (WHR) dropping $3.19. Bank of America brokerage is cautious about the appliance industry outlook and downgraded Whirlpool from neutral to a sell.
Apartment Investment & Management (AIV) stock down $1.70. Third-quarter earnings lower, $0.80 versus a $1.06 in the same period a year ago. And the company sees fourth quarter at only $0.74 to $0.80. And its cutting its quarterly dividend from $0.82 down to $0.60 a share.
Countrywide Financial (CFC) dropped $4.20. The company said it funded 12 percent fewer mortgage loans in the month of October compared to September, and that business is down 16 percent from a year ago.
Amcol International (ACO) down $1.75, an 11 1/2 percent drop. Six directors and the company`s president have sold about 455,000 since the firm posted a 38 percent rise in third-quarter earnings back on October 20. But keep in mind this stock has tripled since the first of the year.
Intel (INTC) topped the active list, down $0.48. J.P. Morgan, however, did upgrade it from neutral to overweight.
Microsoft (MSFT), a $0.10 loss there.
Cisco (CSCO) down $0.15.
Dell (DELL) dropped a $1.07.
Amgen (AMGN) an $0.81 loss, fifth in dollar volume on NASDAQ.
Applied Materials (AMAT) fell $0.84.
But Oracle (ORCL) moved up $0.11
Adobe Systems (ADBE) losing $1.61. J.P. Morgan downgraded it from overweight to underweight.
Amazon.com (AMZN) on profit-taking, down $2.33.
InterActiveCorp (IACI) gained $0.25, tenth in volume.
Look at this gain, 75 1/4 percent, Cotton States Life Insurance (CSLI) soaring $7.60. Country Insurance & Financial Services has offered to buy this company for $20.25 cash. That`s not yet a done deal, apparently.
American Physicians Service Group (AMPH) up $1.60. Big earnings, third quarter, $0.31, compared to only $0.13 a year ago.
And eResearch Technology (ERES) down $7.58. Raymond James Financial brokerage noted there has been some heavy recent insider selling.
And those are the "Stocks in the News" tonight.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views
of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily
represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as
investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
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