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Program: Friday, November 21, 2003
11/21/03: Good Earnings Reports Don't Always Add Up To Good Stock Reports
SUSIE GHARIB: This week wraps up the quarterly flood of earnings from corporate America. As of today`s market close, almost all of the Standard and Poor`s 500 listed companies have reported their numbers and the results have been stellar. So why aren`t strong earnings good enough to boost stock prices? Erika Miller reports. ERIKA MILLER, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Third quarter earnings have been terrific. So, why has the stock market rally petered out? Since earnings season kicked off in the middle of October, stocks have had trouble making headway. JIM AWAD, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, AWAD ASSET MANAGEMENT: The reason stocks aren`t responding is really multifold. First of all, the market had rallied before it became apparent that earnings were going to grow, so much of it was already priced in. Also, people are worried about how long can we keep up this economic growth. MILLER: As of the close today, 95 percent of the Standard and Poor`s 500 have reported third quarter earnings. Profits are running 21 percent ahead of last year, the biggest quarterly gain in over three years. Plus, on average, companies have been beating forecasts by 5 1/2 percent, roughly double the usual amount. And if you think the third quarter was good, analysts say brace yourself for the fourth. GINT RIMAS, ANALYST, FIRST CALL: Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the analysts in general see it at 22.2 percent. We think just given the past few quarters, that it`s actually going to come in closer to 25 percent. So far, we`ve seen pre-announcement activity at a very positive clip. It`s the best we`ve seen since last year. MILLER: But what`s holding investors back is worries about profits next year. Wall Street is predicting earnings will rise 12 1/2 percent in the first quarter of 2004. But some portfolio managers are not confident the results will actually be that strong. They`re worried the economic recovery could start to stall out. AWAD: Are we really experiencing sort of a sugar shock, of the tax refunds, the rebates and the refinancings from low interest rates and are we going to go into a period of much slower growth next year? MILLER: What`s clear is that investors will be paying close attention to the quality of fourth quarter earnings. In particular, they want to see that revenues are rising, a sign that economic growth is picking up. Erika Miller, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
PAUL KANGAS: A compromise Medicare bill has been the subject of last minute haggling on Capitol Hill today. A vote on the $400 billion plan is expected later tonight. And as Angela Terrell Heath reports, people on both sides of the issue wasted no time in the last hours of debate. ANGELA TERRELL HEATH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Congressional Democrats say the new Medicare bill is a real turkey and they brought real turkeys to Capitol Hill to make the point. The lawmakers say the bill does little to address rising drug prices that seniors pay and they claim no bill is better than a bad bill. SEN. TED KENNEDY (D), MASSACHUSETTS: It`s incredibly beneficial to the HMOs, incredibly profitable to the drug companies and a raw deal for the seniors in this country. HEATH: The new Medicare proposal would expand the role of private insurers in the program and add a new provision helping seniors pay for prescription drugs. Republican leaders say that`s the critical piece of the bill and the reason why it should pass. SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN), MAJORITY LEADER: The most powerful tool in American medicine today, the most powerful tool really in the history of medicine ever, will be given in an affordable way to our seniors through the Medicare program. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Congress is closer than ever to strengthening and improving Medicare. HEATH: The bill`s supporters also welcomed the backing of the AARP, the powerful senior advocacy group which is now running ads pushing the measure. But observers say there`s one other force driving this bill -- President Bush`s campaign for reelection. RAMI ARMON, SENIOR POLITICAL STRATEGIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: Only on health care costs is it in his power to take a positive proactive step and get political credit for doing something on what has traditionally been a Democratic issue. HEATH: And President Bush may get that credit. The House is expected to pass the legislation late tonight. A vote in the Senate is scheduled for Monday. And with some Senate Democrats supporting the plan, Republicans think they have the votes needed to approve it. Angela Terrell Heath, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
SUSIE GHARIB: It`s been a tumultuous week in Miami, where trade ministers from 34 countries struggled to hammer out a free trade deal. Negotiators at the Free Trade of the Americas Conference finally settled on a watered down version that gives individual countries the ability to impose some tariffs. But as Jeff Yastine reports, the compromise could pave the way for a tougher deal in the future. JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In a final wrap up news conference, supporters of a hemisphere wide free trade agreement say the talks were a success even though the negotiations ended a day early and not to the satisfaction of all 34 countries. ANTONIO VILLAMIL, CEO, WASHINGTON ECONOMICS GROUP: The momentum is the critical issue here. And in negotiations, you have what they call the bicycle theory or concept. Either you keep pedaling or you fall down, and we moved the process forward. YASTINE: But critics are calling the agreement approved here FTAA lite, a lukewarm trade accord that still lets countries pick and choose what industries and sectors of their economies they want to protect. UNIDENTIFIED DEMONSTRATORS: FTAA, no way! FTAA, no way! YASTINE: Opponents like the AFL-CIO, holding demonstrations here this week, say the quick end to the talks demonstrates just how much opposition there is in the U.S. and Latin America. THEA LEE, CHIEF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIST, AFL-CIO: I think the fact that the declaration is so lackluster, it really doesn`t move the discussion forward very much, doesn`t address any of the really difficult issues, does show that the negotiators are having trouble coming to terms, both with the issues we`ve raised on the outside from the protests, all the organizations that have been involved in raising concerns about the FTAA, and also the fact that there are real serious differences between the United States and the other countries. YASTINE: Key business groups in the U.S. say there is still a chance to resolve issues with one critical player in the region, Brazil, and have a high quality trade agreement. FRANK VARGO, V.P., NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS: Let`s face it, Brazil is the big market, the big prize in South America. But sooner or later Brazil has got to realize it`s out in the cold. And Brazil has no future if everybody else has great rules on investment, protects intellectual property, cuts their tariffs and Brazil is sitting out by itself. YASTINE: But the clock is already ticking. Trade ministers are supposed to meet again next year in Brazil for a final session to determine the fate of the Free Trade Area of the Americas. The political and economic headwinds will make that a tough deadline to meet. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Miami.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/21/03: Market Monitor-Dr. Hans Black, Chairman of Interinvest PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Dr. Hans Black, Chairman of Interinvest, a global money management firm with offices in Switzerland, Canada, Bermuda and Boston, Massachusetts. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Hans. DR. HANS BLACK, CHAIRMAN, INTERINVEST: Thank you. Good to be here. KANGAS: The U.S. stock market had a most impressive run up since October of 2002, but now seems to have run into a roadblock preventing it from moving into still higher ground. What are the major factors giving investors cause to pause here? Is terrorism that`s at the top of the list, in your opinion? BLACK: Well, it`s certainly, I mean I think geopolitical concerns, and terrorism amongst that, is a big issue and how things are going in Iraq, is that going well, and, of course, political concerns with Europe, trade concerns. KANGAS: Right. BLACK: The problems with are we getting into a trade war? You know, steel was an issue. How is that going to be resolved? And I think that -- KANGAS: So investors just don`t want to make a really strong commitment against this kind of a news background. BLACK: Well, we`ve had a strong market. And I think for, there has to be some more evidence on the table. KANGAS: Right. BLACK: And I think we`ll probably get it. I think earnings are going to come in pretty well and I think the economy is going to chug along better than most people think. KANGAS: How serious is the mutual fund scandal here as a bearish factor? BLACK: Well, we think it`s not a big problem near term. But, you know, what really worries us, frankly, is the effect that this is going to have over a multiple number of years depending on, of course, how long this drags out and how many other firms are implicated. There`s an awful -- every day in the newspapers there`s an awful lot of subpoenas going out. KANGAS: It seems that way. How about the problems at the New York Stock Exchange? Do you think the specialist system is on its way out? BLACK: Well, look, when the biggest -- when some of the biggest funds in the country and the world are saying it`s on the way out, I think it`s on the way out. KANGAS: OK. And how about the outlook for the U.S. dollar, which has been quite weak recently? How do you see it now? BLACK: We actually don`t see this. We think the U.S. dollar is cheap. We think Europe is going to face a lot of problems in the next year, particularly with the integration of the new countries that are joining the community. And we think the Euro is a sale here. KANGAS: You know, you were last with us April 11 of this year. The Dow was around 8,200 and you were the most optimistic you had been in years. And, boy, what a good call. Let`s take a look at the recommendations you made last April. We see Corning (GLW) at $5 and change. It`s now almost $11. Red Hat (RHAT) was $5.65. it`s now over $12.50. Those were great recommendations. And Foundry Networks (FDRY) you liked at $9, said "buy" it. It`s $23 and change. Microsoft (MSFT) didn`t do much. It`s only up about $0.80 or so. You still like all of these? BLACK: Yes, yes, we like, we`ve taken some profits, but basically we like them all. KANGAS: OK. And then, also, you had two brand new recommendations back in April. Reuters Group (RTRSY) at $10 and it`s now $20, it`s up, you know, two and a half times, and Juniper Networks (JNPR) at $9, up to $17.42 now. I just have to congratulate you. Those were just great calls. BLACK: Well, thank you. KANGAS: And those weren`t the only ones. That`s all we have room for. You had stocks like Alcatel (ALA) and Novartis (NVS), Bristol-Myers (BMY), ABM (ABM). And they`re all higher. You had 11 recommendations. Every one is much higher. So that`s great. Naturally we`re going to say, let`s duplicate that. What do you like now? BLACK: Well, we do like some stocks. We`ve taken some profits. We have removed some money from the technology sector. And we`ve looked around the market. I mean, in our opinion the drugs are cheap. KANGAS: OK. BLACK: The drugs have been a group where, you know, if you were a safe investor 12 months ago and decided to buy the major drug companies, you lost money. KANGAS: Well, I see that you`ve placed Schering-Plough (SGP) on the list and we have a chart up on it right now. BLACK: Yes, Schering is, in our opinion, a well run company, good, smart management. And we think that this is a very cheap company. KANGAS: Its stock is way down. We have to hustle here now. BLACK: Yes, El Paso (EP) is another one. KANGAS: OK. BLACK: I think some of these gas companies, we all know about the problems, but that one in particular looks very cheap to us. And one of the other technology stocks, we like the company Novell (NOVL). And they recently made a deal with IBM (IBM) and is involved in the Linux area and very well positioned. KANGAS: Boy, this thing has had an awfully strong run up recently. You still like it though? BLACK: We do. KANGAS: OK. You`re not afraid of buying something in an uptrend, obviously. BLACK: Well, we look at fundamentals and -- KANGAS: And you do own all of these new recommendations, as well? BLACK: We own them all, yes. KANGAS: OK. Well, Hans, I hope you can duplicate the record you had since April. Just fantastic. And we appreciate it very much. It`s been a pleasure to have you again. We`ll look forward to your next visit. BLACK: Thank you. Thanks for having me. KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Dr. Hans Black, Chairman of Interinvest.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
SUSIE GHAIRB: And finally tonight, America`s bread makers think their product is getting a raw deal these days. That`s the result of a new survey done by the National Bread Leadership Council, showing many Americans are by passing bread because they`re on low carbohydrate diets. The industry says that bread should be part of a healthy diet, especially whole grain bread, because it contains fiber, vitamins and minerals. But it`s a tough sell. The survey also showed two out of three respondents are trying to limit their daily carb intake by eating less bread. And, Paul, the situation has become such a concern for the industry that it just wrapped up the first ever National Bread Summit to discuss the problem. PAUL KANGAS: Well, it was wise of them to rise to the occasion.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/20/03: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News" PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened slightly higher in a technical rebound from yesterday`s late sell-off, but in the absence of any major economic reports, the upturn was quite subdued. After 30 minutes of trading, the Dow was up only 8 points, while the NASDAQ Index rose 10. The market managed to stay positive despite sizable losses in FedEx (FDX) and Merck (MRK) stocks, but buyers were reticent amid continuing concern over recent terrorist attacks. And yet the upturn remained intact with the help of some buying linked to triple witching strategies. So the Dow Jones Industrial average ended with a gain of 9.11, putting it at 9,628.53. This week the Dow rose twice and it fell three times and had a net loss of just over 140 points, or 1.4 percent. The NASDAQ Composite rose almost 12 points, to close at 1,893.88 today. For the week it also rose twice and fell three times. It had an overall loss of 36.38 points. That`s 1.9 percent. Today, the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index rose 1.63. Over in the bond market, the 10-year note fell 1/32, to par and 23/32, putting the yield at 4.16 percent. The most active New York Exchange issue on 26.2 million shares, Merck (MRK), down $2.93. That hurt the Dow Industrial Average by 21 3/4 points. The news on Merck, the company discontinued its experimental diabetes drug after finding malignant tumors in some of the lab mice. J.P. Morgan downgraded Merck from "neutral" to "under weight." Morgan Stanley downgraded it from "over weight" to "equal weight." General Electric (GE), second in volume, down $0.39. Followed by Pfizer (PFE), a $0.47 loss. AT&T Wireless (AWE) moved up $0.23. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) down $0.31, fifth in big board volume. Lucent Technologies (LU) dropped a $0.05 a share. And a big loss in Biovail (BVF), tumbling $4.33. That`s nearly a 19 percent drop. The company confirmed there is an SEC inquiry into its accounting and financial practices. Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, downgraded the stock from "neutral" to "sell." The company did, however, approve a buyback of up to 13 million of its own shares. Time Warner (TWX) was up $0.11. ExxonMobil (XOM) gained $0.03. The company will get an IRS tax refund of $2.2 billion in the settlement of a longstanding tax dispute. Nokia (NOK) was tenth in volume and up $0.35 a share. FedEx Corp. (FDX) down $3.93. C.S. First Boston downgraded it from "outperform" to "neutral," citing concerns that the company`s growth rate may be slowing. And then UPS (UPS), the competitor for FedEx, was down $0.86. Let`s talk about UPS first. It`s going to raise its ground transportation rate by 1.9 percent next year, but that`s only half of the increase that it pushed through in the year 2002. Apria Healthcare (AHG) down $2.55. The proposed Medicare drug benefit legislation would cut payments for home oxygen and respiratory therapy, and that`s what this company does. Down went the stock today. J. W. Nordstrom (JWN) up $3.10. Third quarter earnings sharply higher, $0.33 versus last year`s $0.14. Same store sales up five percent. The company sees fourth quarter earnings rising to $0.54 to $0.58. A.G. Edwards upgraded it from "hold" to "buy," with a $44 a share target. J.P. Morgan upgraded it from "neutral" to "over weight." And Dillard Department Stores (DDS) up $1.07. A third quarter loss of $0.19, but that was nowhere near as bad as the Street expectation for a $0.33 per share loss. MAXIMUS (MMS), which is a consultant to the federal government, up $2.52. Fourth quarter earnings in, $0.44, down from last year`s $0.54, but that was $0.03 better than the Street was looking for. The company sees 2004 earnings coming in at $1.88 a share. Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) up $2.67. The company got a five year, $1 billion contract from the Department of Education to administer student loans. Standard & Poor`s repeated a "buy" on Affiliated`s stock. And Plains Resources (PLX) up $2.06. The company got a $14.25 cash buyout bid from its Chairman, James Flores, and its CEO, John Raymond, along with Vulcan Capital. The three of them combining for that bid. Intel (INTC) topped the NASDAQ active list, up $0.49. Followed by Microsoft (MSFT), which was up a $0.01. Amgen (AMGN), a $0.20 gain there. Cisco Systems (CSCO) rose $0.23. But then Lincare Holdings (LNCR) tumbling $6.12. Just like Apria (AHG), it`s in the home oxygen and respiratory therapy business and this proposed Medicare drug benefit would cut payments to that type of work at home. Qualcomm (QCOM) was down $0.85. eBay (EBAY) an $0.18 loss. Applied Materials (AMAT) an $0.11 gain. Brocade Communications (BRCD) down $1.24. Yesterday, the company reported lower third quarter earnings and today Standard & Poor`s repeated an "avoid" recommendation with a $3 a share target for Brocade`s stock. Electronic Arts (ERTS) was down $0.09, tenth in volume on NASDAQ. We had an initial public offering on NASDAQ today, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), the big restaurant chain. It`s got over 200 restaurants. There were three million shares offered to the public at $17. The stock opened at $21.80. The high of the day is where it closed, $22.95. Elsewhere, Applied Molecular Evolution (AMEV) was up $5.99. Lilly, Eli Lilly will acquire this company for $18 a share in cash or $18 a share in cash and stock. Take your choice. Eli Lilly`s stock fell $1.92, to $69.61. Now, over on the American Exchange, a major loser. Immtech International (IMM) plunging $3.76. This is a discovery drug company and it traded as low as $12.20 today. Of course, this year it`s been as low as $2 and as high as $32. But the recent sharp drop the company says it can`t account for as far as corporate developments are concerned. It blames a Web site called Stocklemom.com for posting a negative report on the stock. It calls the company "shaky at best." The company suggests that`s not true and says that there`s short selling manipulation going on in the stock. And those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9628.53 +9.11 + .1
HIGH 9650.31
LOW 9585.50
NASDAQ COMP. 1893.88 +11.96 +.6
HIGH 1896.41
LOW 1878.07
VOLUME 1,259.4
PREVIOUS 1,294.1
UP VOLUME 728.7
DOWN VOLUME 504.4
DOW TRANSPORTS 2845.32 -10.16 - .4
DOW UTILITIES 245.39 +.11 + .0
CLOSING TICK +603
S&P 500 1035.28 +1.63 + .2
S&P 100 511.77 -.02 - .0
MIDCAP 400 548.33 +2.04 + .4
REUTERS/CRB 249.81 -1.17 - .5
NYSE COMPOSITE 5942.32 +17.54 + .3
VALUE LINE 339.44 +1.40 0.41
RUSSELL 2000 525.93 +2.85 0.54
WILSHIRE 5000 10098.88 +21.06 0.21
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Nov. 15,2008 101 1/32 -2/32 3.15
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Nov. 15,2013 100 23/32 -1/32 4.16
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 105 9/32 -3/32 5.02
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1744.69 +11.14
DOW CLOSE 9628.53 +9.11 + .1
ADVANCES 1925
DECLINES 1288
NEW HIGHS 122
NEW LOWS 11
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
MRK Merck & Co 42.23 -2.93 -6.5
GE GE 28.56 -.39 -1.4
PFE Pfizer 33.18 -.47 -1.4
AWE AT&T Wireless 7.00 +.23 +3.4
HPQ Hewlett-Packard 21.28 -.31 -1.4
LU Lucent Tech 3.00 -.05 -1.6
BVF Biovail 18.89 -4.33 -18.7
TWX Time Warner 15.55 +.11 +.7
XOM Exxon Mobil 35.34 +.03 +.1
NOK Nokia 17.79 +.35 +2.0
NASDAQ CLOSE 1893.88 + 11.96 + .6
VOLUME 1,621.7
PREVIOUS 1,793.2
ADVANCES 1714
DECLINES 1405
NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC Intel 32.32 +.49 +1.5
MSFT Microsoft 25.11 +.01 +.0
AMGN Amgen 59.95 +.20 +.3
CSCO Cisco Systems 22.17 +.23 +1.1
LNCR Lincare Holdings 33.00 -6.12 -15.6
QCOM Qualcomm 43.92 -.85 -1.9
EBAY eBay 51.85 -.18 -.4
AMAT Applied Matl 22.96 +.11 +.5
BRCD Brocade Comms 5.91 -1.24 -17.3
ERTS Electronic Arts 44.16 -.09 -.2
AMEX CLOSE 1066.28 - .83 - .1
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 96.49 +.27 +.3
QQQ NASDAQ 100 34.23 +.37 +1.1
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 104.25 +.47 +.5
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
FDX FedEx Corp 70.48 -3.93 -5.3
UPS United Parcel 71.07 -.86 -1.2
AHG Apria Healthcare 26.00 -2.55 -8.9
JWN Nordstrom 34.92 +3.10 +9.7
DDS Dillard 15.57 +1.07 +7.4
MMS Maximus 37.00 +2.52 +7.3
ACS Affiliated Compu 49.54 +2.67 +5.7
PLX Plains Resources 15.50 +2.06 +15.3
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wing 22.95 +5.95 +35.0
AMEV Applied Molecular 17.75 +5.99 +50.9
IMM Immtech Intl 14.00 -3.76 -21.2
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