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Program: Friday, November 28, 2003
11/28/03: Ready, Set, Shop--Black Friday Is Here JEFF YASTINE: With the Thanksgiving turkey now just a leftover, many Americans turned their attention today to shopping. Consumers hit the stores before dawn, hoping to take advantage of special deals on a day that traditionally marks the start of the holiday shopping season. Scott Gurvey takes a look at how retailers are likely to fare this year. SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The early bird special brought scores of shoppers to stores from Best Buy (BBY) to Wal-Mart (WMT), Penny's (JCP) top Sears (S) and most in between. Many stores kicked of the official holiday shopping season by opening the doors at 6 a.m. Newspaper ads and inserts touted a limited number of specials, often 50 percent off, designed to get people into the store and into a buying mood. Consumer electronics is expected to be the hottest sector beyond the usual toys this year, with phonics (ph) and prices adults will find hard to resist. ALAN RIFKIN, SPECIALTY RETAIL ANALYST, LEHMAN BROS.: Never before has there been such a flurry of new and must-have products, whether its DVD players, recordable DVD players, digital cameras, digital camcorders, digital TVs, high-definition TVs. So the whole digitization of America is well under way. And that is going to be one of the hotter products this holiday season. GURVEY: But it is not all electronics. Retailers across all categories are cautiously optimistic about sales this year. Last year's 2.2 percent increase was the worst in a decade. This year the National Retail Federation is looking for a 5.7 percent increase, driving overall holiday sales to $217 billion. Many more consumers are expected to let their fingers do the walking this year. Forrester Research expects online sales to jump 42 percent to more than $12 billion. There is, of course, a difference between sales and profits. Stores are hoping to avoid the deep price cuts of recent years. They are keeping inventories lean and advertising heavily in an attempt to get buyers to part with their money sooner rather than later. CHRISTINE AUGUSTINE, RETAIL ANALYST, BEAR STEARNS: There is a lot of marketing this year. There is a lot of advertising, some of it is very focused. There is a lot of direct mail this year. There is more television advertising. So we think the retailers are really focused on driving traffic to the stores early. GURVEY: There are 27 more shopping days left until Christmas, and the retailers will keep the books open until the end of the year anyway to catch the after-Christmas sales. So it will be some time before we know if today's high traffic translates into high sales. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York. Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
PAUL KANGAS: The day after Thanksgiving is usually a time for stories about how much money consumers will spend this holiday season. But today we also look at the growing number of Americans who have decided that spending less can be much more. Darren Gersh reports. DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: You won't find Jason McCray strolling the mall today, looking with longing at those big-screen TVs. And he won't be joining the mad rush to max out his credit card on holiday gifts. JASON MCCRAY, NON-TRADITIONAL SHOPPER: I guess I've just become increasingly frustrated with the rising levels of commercialism during the holidays. It seems like more and more the day after Halloween, somehow the stores put their Christmas decorations up, and by the time the holidays roll around you are just burned out. GERSH: Jason says he and his family already have everything they need, so instead of giving things, Jason is giving his time. It's a precious commodity for this MBA student. Last year, Jason gave his father six squash games together. And instead of exchanging gifts this year, he and his wife are taking a trip. MCCRAY: We don't need more stuff cluttering up our house, so the idea of going away together is great, because we get to spend time with each other. GERSH: Jason isn't alone. While retailers are looking for a strong holiday shopping season this year, a silent majority of Americans say what they really want can't be bought in a store. They want to put more meaning in their money. Citigroup (C), the nation's largest credit card issuer, sees that as an opportunity. After studying consumer attitudes towards money, the financial services giant revamped its consumer marketing campaign. ANNE MACDONALD, GLOBAL MARKETING DIR., CITIGROUP: What consumers were saying to us is, it's not about the money. It is about what I want to accomplish. It is about what I am trying to do. GERSH: One thing consumers are trying to do, Citigroup says, is rein in their credit card spending. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Citicards: All the tools you need to stay in control. GERSH: And despite the popularity of get-rich quick TV shows, Citigroup also found most Americans are what it calls "balance seekers." MACDONALD: We found that they just had a very healthy approach to how they thought about money, how they balanced their needs and their wants, how they balanced today against tomorrow. GERSH: But syndicated personal finance columnist Michelle Singletary has heard this kind of talk before. MICHELLE SINGLETARY, FINANCE COLUMNIST, "THE WASHINGTON POST": There is definitely a movement for people who want to get back to simplicity. They want to have a simpler Christmas, but that is easier said than done. And I like to say they talk a big game. They want to do this, but when it comes down to it, they just don't have the fortitude to not spend as much. GERSH: To help, Singletary recommends a book called "$100 Holiday." The idea: spend no more than $100 for all your gifts. And if you find your sense of balance slipping this holiday shopping season, Singletary has this tip. SINGLETARY: Have a list, and, listen, take your credit card statement from the last month. If that won't make you stop spending, I don't know what will. GERSH: And remember, balance isn't something you buy, but it can be a gift you give. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
JEFF YASTINE: Well, it's the dream of many people: turning a hobby into a million-dollar business. Well, tonight we look at one entrepreneur who is doing just that in an unusual way. Rob McBride has more from Hong Kong. ROB MCBRIDE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It's called the UFO, one of the big sellers this festive season, at the controls a man who at 26 has achieved what most of us dream of. You are in the ideal position. You have a hobby, you've turned that into a business. STEVE NG, DIRECTOR, TOY EAST INTERNATIONAL: Yes, yes. I'm lucky. I'm one of the lucky person in Hong Kong. MCBRIDE: In the world. NG: In the world.. (LAUGHTER) MCBRIDE: Are you a millionaire yet? NG: No. (LAUGHTER) MCBRIDE: But he is probably not far off. A staff of 12 and a business office-cum-distribution business selling toys online around the world with a $1.5 million turnover. NG: And here you see... MCBRIDE: It began with these, limited edition Japanese model cars available cheaply in Hong Kong direct from the factories in China where they are made. Himself a collector, he soon realized their value to other collectors overseas. NG: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) This is my background. The other point is it clearly bring me some profit by selling those Japanese model cars to overseas. I like the European market and American market. MCBRIDE: What kind of profit? NG: The profit, we are talking about 100 percent to 1000 percent. It's very brand by brand and model car by model car. MCBRIDE: He also found the ideal means of distribution, the Internet and specifically eBay. NG: I try. (UNINTELLIGIBLE) my study in university, but after school time, then I take some photograph for some model cars and put on eBay. MCBRIDE: Now he has staff to do that for him while other staff fill out the orders taken from his own Web site. Others still do the quality control on the lines of model cars he now produces himself. But he doesn't mind taking a turn with the trolley when it's time to move merchandise to one of the retailers in Hong Kong that he supplies, at the same time still picking up more of those little Japanese cars that first got him started. NG: For example, for this car we can buy in at $5 and sell on eBay for $10. MCBRIDE: The entrepreneurial spirit that Hong Kong is well-renowned for, exploiting its position as the entrepo (ph) for trade between China and the rest of the world. Hong Kong has had to learn to adapt economically in order to survive, but when it comes to e-commerce, it seems the city has been slow on the uptake. Too many Hong Kong firms it seems getting caught when the dot-com bubble burst. CAROLYN ONG, TECH REPORTER, "SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST": There is some sort of stigma attached to the Internet. You have an Internet business? Oh, we don't do that anymore. There is also a lack of understanding of what an Internet business can really be about. MCBRIDE: One of Hong Kong's few online business men applying technology to passion and producing profit. Rob McBride, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Hong Kong.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "Market Monitor" this week is Bernie Schaeffer, chairman of Schaeffer's Investment Research and publisher of the popular monthly newsletter the "Option Advisor." And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Bernie, good to see you. BERNIE SCHAEFFER, SCHAEFFER'S INVESTMENT RESEARCH: Great to be here, Paul. KANGAS: I noticed that in your December "Option Advisor" newsletter just released earlier this week, you were of the opinion that the U.S. stock market is losing its upward momentum with each rally, losing the fire power that the previous one had. Are you thinking that this market is in for a very serious downturn? SCHAEFFER: I think this market is vulnerable to a very serious downturn. From a technical standpoint, we've rallied to some very significant resistance levels on the Dow and on the S&P. KANGAS: And haven't gotten through them? SCHAEFFER: We haven't been able to retrace, for example, halfway between the highs that we reached in 2000 and the lows that we reached in 2002. That's a very important demarcation point and we keep going up to that 1065 level and we keep pulling back from there. So I'm also concerned bull markets tend to climb a wall of worry. I am seeing some complacency out there. We have seen four bulls on four separate magazine covers over the past six months. That's kind of, at least a yellow flashing light if not a red. KANGAS: OK. Now but the fundamentals look very good, but you are not that concerned about fundamentals when you see this kind of a chart pattern. SCHAEFFER: Well, the fundamentals look good, then again, we have got to have some pretty healthy earnings growth next year in order to justify the valuations where we are. We have got dollar that's weakening seriously here. And that's a concern. KANGAS: What does that mean? How important is that weak dollar? SCHAEFFER: Well, I think is - it can be very important because the Fed is so concerned about keeping interest rates low. And the Fed has a certain amount of control over that but if the dollar decline should get out of hand, we might be forced - first of all, it's going to ratchet up inflation, and second of all, we might be forced to raise our rates just to stabilize the dollar, and that could jeopardize the economic recovery. KANGAS: Well, this in combination with gold hitting almost $400 an ounce, what does that mean to you? SCHAEFFER: Well, again, I think we're coming out of a 20-year decline... KANGAS: Bear market, yes. SCHAEFFER: ... in the real assets part of equation which coincided with a 20-year rally in financial assets. I think we're starting to reverse that polarity. And I think hard assets are going to be the place to be for a while, and financial assets are, again, vulnerable, both stocks and bonds. KANGAS: OK. Now on your last visit with us you had several recommendations. Of course, you play the calls and the puts, the option market. And let's have a look at some of those recommendations back on July 11. You liked the idea of buying a call on Ford Motor (F). I think it was a one-year call? SCHAEFFER: Six months I believe. KANGAS: Six months. And it was about 10 percent of the price of stock at that time. So you are actually in the money. It has gone from 11 and change to over $13. All right. That worked out. But Calpine (CPN) didn't. It's way below what that call striking price was at the time. But all you lost was your premium, right? SCHAEFFER: You can only lose your premium in options trading but you better get those big winners as well. KANGAS: Well, you had another recommendation on the sell side or the put option side, and that was GE (GE), which is about even where it was. Now that was an 18-month put option that you were recommending. SCHAEFFER: Correct. KANGAS: OK. So that has yet to be decided. SCHAEFFER: The jury is out. KANGAS: All right. Let's have a look at some new recommendations that you might have. What do you like? SCHAEFFER: Well, I continue to like Ford. Ford is - if you're going to own a stock, I say, own Ford here. KANGAS: And buy the calls at this level. SCHAEFFER: I would go for a six-month call on Ford from here which would cost about 10 percent of the price of the stock, OK. KANGAS: Lovely, all right. Any other call candidates? SCHAEFFER: I remain bullish on tech. I think tech continues to be where the opportunity is. Research In Motion (RIMM), the Blackberry device manufacturer blowing out earnings, performing at three times the level of the NASDAQ. If you want to be in tech, that's the stock to own, 15 percent premium on a six-month call option there. KANGAS: All right. It has had a good ride. But you say more is coming. And a gold stock, Newmont Mining (NEM), you like the call on that? SCHAEFFER: I think if you are going to be in stocks, you have to have a portion of your assets in gold stocks. And we talked about that swing from financial assets to hard assets. Newmont Mining I go out a year and I pay about 10 percent up for call option. KANGAS: OK. We only have about 25 seconds left, on the put side what do you like? SCHAEFFER: And I own all these stocks. And also, on the put side, I'm going to stick with GE, a one-year put. I also own puts on GE, by the way, a one-year put on GE. I think the blue chip area is where the greatest vulnerability is. GE has a $200 billion-plus market cap. It's going to have trouble growing to justify its market valuation. KANGAS: All right. Very good, Bernie, enough said, we understand where you're coming from. Thanks very much for being with us. SCHAEFFER: A pleasure. KANGAS: My guest, Bernie Schaeffer, chairman of Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/26/03: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News" PAUL KANGAS: Stocks on Wall Street edged slightly lower during the opening on concern over another drop in the dollar to a new low against the euro. The Dow fell about 10 points at the outset while the NASDAQ Index lost only about 2 points. The voicing of those high hopes for strong holiday retail sales buoyed the market a bit, and also helping was Prudential's boost in McDonald's earnings estimate for next year. By late morning, the Dow rose to 20-point gain. And the NASDAQ Index was up 9 points. With so many traders taking the day off, and with the market's early 1 p.m. close, stocks predictably trailed off for the rest of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended with a gain of only 2.89 points, at 9782.46. For the week, the Dow rose in all four sessions, though, and had a net gain of 153.93 points. That's 1.6 percent. The NASDAQ Composite was up nearly 7 points today, at 1960.26. For the week it fell once, rose three times, had an overall gain of 66.38, that's 3 1/2 percent. The S&P 500 Index closed down 1/4 of a point at 1058.20 today. In the bond market, the 10-year note fell 22/32 to 99 10/32, lifting the yield to 4.33 percent. The most active New York Exchange issue was Schering-Plough (SGP), trading not that active, 8 1/2 million shares, but the stock up $0.67. The company's chief executive officer, Fred Hassan, bought over 300,000 shares recently. That about $4.7 million-worth. He said he has confidence in the firm's long-term prospects. Pfizer (PFE), down $0.28. Merck & Company (MRK) fell $0.42. "The Wall Street Journal" today had an article reporting that four of Merck's 11 pipeline medicines have failed, and two have been delayed. GE (GE) down $0.10 a share. Liberty Media (L) moved up $0.11, fifth in big board volume. Motorola (MOT), a $0.16 gain. Lucent Technologies (LU) managed to gain a nickel. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) dropped $0.17. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) down $0.41. The company halted trials of its anemia drug Procrit due to unexpected levels of blood-clotting. NorTel Networks (NT) moved up a penny, and tenth in big board volume. McDonald's (MCD), which, of course, is a Dow stock, moved up $0.24. Prudential Securities increased 2004 earnings estimates by $0.02, up to $1.55 a share. And that's about a penny above most Wall Street projections. Citigroup (C), another Dow stock, edging up $0.09. The company was helped along by news of the investment fund that it runs has offered to pay $430 million to buy the non-core operations of South Korea's cash-strapped chipmaker called Hynix Semiconductor. St. Jude Medical (STJ) rose $2.36. That's a five-month high for the stock. The company said it plans to ask the FDA for approval for two of its new devices to treat heart failure. Aluminum Corporation of China (ACH) doing well, up $3.31. The manager of the Wells Fargo Montgomery Emerging Market Fund said this is her favorite stock because demand is strong for basic metals in China partially due to the booming auto sales over there. Cameco Corporation (CCJ) up $2.68. This company mines gold as well as uranium. And earlier this week, CIBC financial markets increased its target for the stock by $7, up to $67 a share, but that's Canadian. Pioneer Corp. (PIO), the Japanese electronics manufacturer, was selected Nomura Securities as its number one stock pick. The company sees 2004 revenues growing by double digits. Yanzhou Coal Mining (YZC), the American depositary shares doing well, up $3.95. This is a major Chinese coal producer. And it's benefiting from a 16 percent rise in the price of coal in China due to very strong demand over there. NASDAQ's most active was Intel (INTC), edging up $0.19. The company is developing a microchip capable of letting desktop computers act as a hub in home and office wireless networks. Rambus (RMBS) up $4.75. AmTech Research repeated a buy recommendation in the belief it will do well in its legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission and Infineon Technologies (IFX). Incidentally, these are share volume actives, not dollar volume. Share volume strictly today. A $0.02-loss in Sun Microsystems (SUNW). And Net2Phone (NTOP) was up $0.30. Applied Materials (AMAT), a $0.50-gain there, fifth in share volume. Oracle (ORCL) was down $0.02. ADC Telecom (ADCT) gained $0.03. CMGI (CMGI), a $0.17-gain. Dell Incorporated (DELL) rose $0.15. And then JDS Uniphase (JDSU) was down $0.02 a share. Overstock.com (OSTK) up $1.64, 11 1/2 percent gain there. Forrester Research thinks that online holiday shopping sales are going to rise at least 40 percent. Z-Tel Technologies (ZTEL) up $1.44, a gain of 92 percent and then some. The company's technology enables voice transmission over the Internet. And this is one of the stock market's hottest sectors. The stock doing very well today. North Coast Energy (NCEB) down $1.47. The company has accepted EXCO Resources' buyout bid at $10.75 a share cash, well below yesterday's closing price for North Coast. And those are the "Stocks in the News" tonight.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9782.46 +2.89 + .0
HIGH 9804.98
LOW 9764.83
NASDAQ COMP. 1960.26 +6.95 +.4
HIGH 1963.06
LOW 1950.21
VOLUME 485.7
PREVIOUS 1,105.3
UP VOLUME 280.1
DOWN VOLUME 193.4
DOW TRANSPORTS 2921.23 +1.96 + .1
DOW UTILITIES 250.41 +.11 + .0
CLOSING TICK -165
S&P 500 1058.20 -.25 - .0
S&P 100 520.74 -.47 - .1
MIDCAP 400 567.00 +1.68 + .3
REUTERS/CRB 249.88 +1.13 + .5
NYSE COMPOSITE 6073.02 +4.25 + .1
VALUE LINE 350.67 +.71 0.2
RUSSELL 2000 546.51 +1.20 0.22
WILSHIRE 5000 10352.22 +7.60 0.07
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Nov. 15,2008 100 2/32 -14/32 3.36
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Nov. 15,2013 99 10/32 -22/32 4.33
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 103 16/32 -30/32 5.13
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1723.74 -6.50
DOW CLOSE 9782.46 +2.89 + .0
ADVANCES 1848
DECLINES 1207
NEW HIGHS 305
NEW LOWS 3
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
SGP Schering-Plough 16.05 +.67 +4.4
PFE Pfizer 33.55 -.28 -.8
MRK Merck & Co 40.60 -.42 -1.0
GE GE 28.67 -.10 -.4
L Liberty Media 11.05 +.11 +1.0
MOT Motorola 14.04 +.16 +1.2
LU Lucent Tech 3.20 +.05 +1.6
HPQ Hewlett-Packard 21.69 -.17 -.8
JNJ Johnson &Johnson 49.29 -.41 -.8
NT Nortel Networks 4.51 +.01 +.2
NASDAQ CLOSE 1960.26 + 6.95 + .4
VOLUME 704.1
PREVIOUS 1,526.6
ADVANCES 1745
DECLINES 1226
NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC Intel 33.54 +.19 +.6
RMBS Rambus 30.00 +4.75 +18.8
SUNW Sun Micro 4.26 -.02 -.4
NTOP Net2Phone 6.22 +.30 +5.1
AMAT Applied Matl 24.24 +.50 +2.1
ORCL Oracle 12.02 -.02 -.2
ADCT ADC Telecomm 2.45 +.03 +1.2
CMGI CMGI Inc 2.12 +.17 +8.7
DELL Dell Inc 34.57 +.15 +.4
JDSU JDS Uniphase 3.44 -.02 -.6
AMEX CLOSE 1098.10 + 9.49 + .9
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 98.02 +.12 +.1
QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.40 +.09 +.3
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 106.50 +.13 +.1
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
MCD McDonald's 25.63 +.24 +1.0
C Citigroup 47.04 +.09 +.2
STJ St Jude Medical 63.34 +2.36 +3.9
ACH Aluminum China 53.51 +3.31 +6.6
CCJ Cameco 50.73 +2.68 +5.6
PIO Pioneer 25.17 +1.21 +5.1
YZC Yanzhou ADR 39.74 +3.95 +11.0
OSTK Overstock.com 15.85 +1.64 +11.5
ZTEL Z-Tel Tech 3.00 +1.44 +92.3
NCEB North Coast 10.70 -1.47 -12.1
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