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Program: Monday, December 8, 2003
12/08/03: The Forecast For The Last FOMC Meeting Of The Year SUSIE GHARIB: A positive but cautious day on Wall Street today. The Dow rose 102 points and the NASDAQ added 11. Investors played it safe, a day ahead of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting of the year. But as Suzanne Pratt reports, analysts are unanimous in forecasting no change in interest rates tomorrow. SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Short-term interest rates are at their lowest level in 45 years and it looks like they will stay that way at least for the foreseeable future. Federal Reserve policymakers have made it clear they see no reason to raise the Federal funds rate, which currently stands at 1 percent. Sure, the economy grew by more than 8 percent in the third quarter, but the job market is still lagging the overall economy in a big way. On top of that, inflation poses no real threat. CORY LEAHEY, SR. ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK SECS: Greenspan doesn't want it written on his tombstone that he squashed the recovery because he was afraid that inflation was going to double from 1 t to 2 percent. That's a bad trade in his opinion, so he'd be better off waiting. PRATT: Still, it wouldn't be a Fed meeting without something to dissect. And tomorrow, the big question is whether the central bank will back off its pledge to keep interest rates low quote, for a considerable period, end quote. LEAHEY?: Either it's going to be replaced or substantially modified. However, if the phrase "considerable period" makes it into tomorrow's document, even heavily modified, that will probably be bullish for bonds, thinking that the Fed can't move until the third quarter of next year at the earliest. PRATT: And many experts think the Fed will keep rates unchanged possibly until after the presidential election in November. But others say Wall Street should look for higher rates as early as May or June. DAVID WYSS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, STANDARD & POOR'S: My guess right now is they'll move in June. That would be handy because that allows the chairman to explain it at the midyear monetary policy review to Congress. And it's far enough away from the election that it's not going to have major political consequences. PRATT: Assuming the Fed does nothing tomorrow, the next opportunity to take action won't come until late January. That's when policymakers hold their first meeting of the new year. Suzanne Pratt, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
PAUL KANGAS: President Bush signed the controversial Medicare Act of 2003 into law this morning, overhauling the old system to add a prescription drug benefit for seniors. But as Stephanie Woods reports, even though the deal is now done, the fight is far from over. STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: President Bush touted the $395 billion Medicare bill as an advance in health care for seniors. GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: With this law, we're giving older Americans better choices and more control over their health care, so they can receive the modern medical care they deserve. WOODS: With the ink not yet dry on the law, Democrats staged a campaign-style rally to push for more generous coverage. REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: Instead of reducing costs for seniors, this Republican hoax does nothing for seniors. WOODS: But any increase in the benefits will add to an already uncertain cost. That $395 billion price tag is only for the first 10 years of the plan. For the next 10 years of the plan, the Congressional Budget Office estimates it could cost as much as $2 trillion. The actual cost will depend on future drug prices, if seniors use more drugs, and exactly how seniors will get coverage. DOUGLAS HOLTZ EAKIN, DIR., CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE: How will we cover them? We don't know the answer. How will they be integrated with the traditional hospital or physician coverage? We don't know the answer. And what will the nature and the cost of the coverage be? Well, we'll see as the decade evolves. WOODS: Proponents say Medicare will save money by providing better disease management and replacing expensive surgery with less expensive medicine. REP. TOM DELAY (R-TX), MAJORITY WHIP: So we feel very confident that market forces, choice, and the kinds of principles that we put into this bill will lower the costs over time, and we'll just see who is right. WOODS: But policy analysts doubt reforms meant to spur health plan competition will work. MAX PAPPAS, CITIZENS FOR A SOUND ECONOMY: In this bill they've been reduced to demonstration projects in just a few cities sprinkled around the country, and that's been tried several times over the last 10 years and it's failed. WOODS: Some analysts say those demonstration projects may never even get off the ground if the groundswell against them by seniors continues to grow. Stephanie Woods, "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 12/08/03: One On One With Dieter Zetsche,President & CEO, DaimlerChrysler SUSIE GHARIB: The Chrysler group took the wraps off of its next generation of minivans today, part of its effort to turn around the troubled company. The new 2005 Chrysler Town and Country and Dodge Grand Caravan have redesigned features including flexible seating, easy entry and exit, and new exterior trim. But experts say Chrysler still faces an uphill battle after the company's strategy to reposition itself as a more upscale brand fell apart this year. Earlier today, I talked with Chrysler Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche, and began by asking him how much growth is left in the minivan market. DIETER ZETSCHE, PRES. & CEO, DAIMLERCHRYSLER: The minivan segment has been shrinking for some time. Meanwhile, we understand and expect it to be constant, about half (ph) the size of a million, and we own 38 percent market share. So this is a huge volume and a tremendous opportunity for us. GHARIB: Mr. Zetsche, I know that you've done a lot in terms of cutting costs at Chrysler, but what's going to drive growth and really rev up revenues? ZETSCHE: Well, obviously as a car company that's product. And that's why we are feeling so confident right now, as we are about to launch nine new products in 2004, more than any manufacturer in the U.S. would ever have launched before in a one-year period. So this will drive our revenues next year. GHARIB: Now, I understand that this new launch Chrysler is trying to move its brand up market, but analysts are telling me that the premium market is very competitive and also that the traditional core Chrysler customer really isn't a premium buyer. What's your thought on that? ZETSCHE: Well, I think there's a little miscommunication perhaps from our side. What we want to do is offer our customers more content, more refinement, more quality, more beautiful vehicle, but at very very competitive prices. And I am absolutely sure that every one of the Chrysler customer and many others are totally ready for this kind of package. GHARIB: So you don't think that you're going to be alienating the bulk of the traditional loyal Chrysler customers? ZETSCHE: We are clearly a volume manufacturer with all three brands. We'll continue to be that. But volume manufacturer which is different which offers more than the competition (INAUDIBLE) product and content and refinement of the product is concerned. GHARIB: What about Chrysler market share? It has been slipping. Will this new line of cars increase that market share? Do you have a number or goal in mind? ZETSCHE: Well, in the last three years we had a slight reduction in market share, and I consider that relatively good, with a very small number of new products being launched and new products are making the gains. Now with all the new products ahead of us, we are very confident that we would grow market share. There is no particular number in mind, but we definitely see growth for next year. GHARIB: How about incentives? Will these new models have incentives or do you have a timetable for eliminating them altogether? ZETSCHE: Well, based on tremendous competitive pressure in the marketplace, which is somewhat structural, the improving economy certainly will help all of us and we particularly will be helped by the new product because new products try to complement your showroom, not because of the deal of the day, but because of the characteristics of the product. There will be incentives. However, what we are looking for is no further increases and perhaps some easing back in the (INAUDIBLE) area which would be great. GHARIB: Mr. Zetsche, it's been five years since Daimler merged with Chrysler and there are still questions about whether this was in the best interest of Daimler and whether it was in the best interest of shareholders and as you know, there's a trial that's examining the very deal itself going on in a Delaware courtroom. What do you think the impact of this trial is going to be on Chrysler and how is this whole thing going to play out? ZETSCHE: Well, I'm not a judge, so I obviously cannot predict that. What we are hoping for is pretty obvious. The direct impact on Chrysler, whatever the outcome is, will be very limited. We are focused on our business year. We are focused on developing the most beautiful vehicles possible, producing them in the highest quality and selling them with flawless launches and successful marketing strategies. GHARIB: Mr. Zetsche, thank you very much. We appreciate your time. ZETSCHE: Thank you. Thanks for having me. GHARIB: Communism and capitalism met face to face this morning in New York City. The premier of China, Win Chao Bow (ph) rang the opening bell here at the New York Stock Exchange, then spent today meeting with the city's business leaders and bankers. Win's visit comes amid pressure for China to cut down its massive trade surplus with the United States and to ease its grip on its rigidly controlled currency, the yuan (ph). There are also growing tensions over efforts by Taiwan, a U.S. ally, to assert its independence. And Paul, one of Win's stops today was at a true bastion of capitalism, General Electric.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
SUSIE GHARIB: Economists have known it for years: demographics can be destiny when it comes to a nation's population. Well, tonight's commentator agrees. Here's Dan Mitchell, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation. DANIEL MITCHELL, COMMENTARY: Politicians all around the world are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. On one hand, they have aging populations and older voters want more entitlement spending. But on the other hand, demographic shifts are dramatically altering the ratio of workers to retirees and this makes it very difficult to boost spending. Indeed, it is probably just a matter of time before politicians are forced to scale back entitlements. By 2030, the U.S. population will mirror the age distribution in Florida today. And in Europe, the problem's even more acute because their birth rates are so low that their populations will be shrinking. This is going to make it difficult for countries to fulfill existing promises. You can't provide generous income transfers when there are only (INAUDIBLE) people in the workforce for every retiree. The tax burden necessary to maintain such a system would cripple economic activity. France and Germany have probably already reached that stage. Fortunately, there is a solution. Governments should shift to a system of private retirement accounts based on mandatory private savings. About two dozen nations have implemented so-called private Social Security systems. Latin American and Eastern European nations have led the way, but fully or partially privatized systems have been enacted in Australia, Hong Kong, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the Cayman Islands. These personal accounts would be a good idea for America as well. President Bush endorsed this much-needed reform during the 2000 election. The time has come to translate talk into action. I'm Dan Mitchell.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use. 12/08/03: "Gifts & Gadgets"-Part 1: TV Trends SUSIE GHARIB: And finally tonight, just 16 more shopping days until Christmas. And if you're looking for the perfect something for that electronics maven on your list, look no further. Tonight and for the next two Monday nights, Scott Gurvey has the perfect suggestions as he looks at what's hot and what's not in gifts and gadgets this holiday season. SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT: 'Tis the season of television. What's hot is big screen, wide screen and high definition. You should make sure you get all three in the same product. Avoid enhanced or EVTV (ph) sets. You want HDTV, high definition, which is the standard. The other big trend is TV on your PC. Microsoft has worked hard improving its media centered software. JIM ALLCHIN, GROUP V.P., MICROSOFT: You're going to find this year some 40 different manufacturers for this holiday season, an incredible line up of everything from innovative laptops, if you want to have a media center on a laptop, to low-cost, less than $1,000 system up to a very, very high end AV rack (ph) oriented machines that you could use with your home theater system. GURVEY: Buying an integrated system is clearly the best solution, but you can also add TV to your current PC. (INAUDIBLE) tuner recorder devices that plug into USB slots so you don't even have to open the case. CHRIS SCHULTZ, MARKETING MANAGER, ADAPTEC: And you basically have a computer already with a capabilities of driving this product and you basically can transform your existing product, your existing PC into an media center. GURVEY: These products turn your existing computer into a media center, but they are tricky and you should be comfortable with the technology before you use them. For editing and DVD burning, my favorite by far is the DVD movie factory from You Lead (ph). Priced at $50, it is easy to use and has features usually found only in products costing much more. If audio is your goal, there are several products that turn your PC into a juke box. (INAUDIBLE) makes a gadget that plugs into your stereo and plays music stored on your PC over a wired or wireless connection. The player does its best to read the list of available selections to you. Prices on those big plasma TV screens have fallen well below $10,000. You do get what you pay for, so you might want to wait a little longer. The prices are still falling rapidly. You will find more information on these products on the NBR website. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/08/03: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News" PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened higher on a technical rebound from Friday's sell-off and on optimism the Fed would leave interest rates and monetary policy unchanged tomorrow. After an hour of trading, the Dow was up 35 points. NASDAQ Index rose nine. By the way, we don't have a market chart tonight due to some technical glitches. In any case, the market turned mixed in midmorning as the blue chips, led by G.E., General Motors, Boeing and 3M, added to their early gains, while the NASDAQ was undermined by weakness in the tech sector. In early afternoon, the Dow was up 50 points but the NASDAQ index was down six. Unusually low volume made for more upside volatility in the blue chips and that eventually helped the NASDAQ market. So the Dow Industrial average surged to a closing gain of 102 ½ points putting it at 996.27 (ph). The NASDAQ Composite closed up 11 points at 1948.85. Standard & Poor's 500 up 7.80 at 1,069.30. In the bond market, the 10-year note fell 10/32 to 99 27/32, lifting the yield to 4.27 percent. The most active big board issue on a none too active 12.8 milliion shares was Texas Instruments (TXN) down $0.12. After the Close, TI said its fourth quarter earnings will be $0.25 to $0.27 including $0.07 from the sale of its Micron Technology stock. But its October forecast was way down from that, $0.14 to $0.19. That didn't include the $0.07 profit from Micron Technology's sale. However, in after hours trading, TI stock was at $28.70, up about $0.50 from the regular close. Then, second in volume was Health Management (HMA) down $2.89, 11 percent drop. The company owns 41 acute care hospitals and UBS financial brokerage downgraded it from "neutral" to "reduce," citing the fact that the company's gross charges are under scrutiny by both Federal and state regulators. Nokia (NOK) in their with a $0.17 loss. Motorola (MOT) down $0.18. EMC (EMC) $0.04 drop there. That was number five in big board volume. And then G.E. (GE) moving up $0.27. Emirates (ph) Airlines us going to pay $1 ½ billion for over 100 jet engines from G.E. and United Technologies' Pratt & Whitney division, be used to power Emirate Airlines Airbus 380 aircraft fleet. United Tech stock incidentally moved up $0.82 to $88.55. Lucent Technologies (LU) dropped $0.03. But Pfizer (PFE) was up $0.23. ExxonMobil (XOM) $0.52 gain. Liberty Media (L), tenth in big board volume, dropped $0.06 a share. McDonald's (MCD) closed down $0.37, although in the morning it traded as high as $26.36. The company reported November same store sales up a respectable 6.4 percent. Total sales up almost 15 percent. And then somebody rang Avon Products (AVP) bell today, down $5.40. Those sellers were in there. Even though the company increased its fourth quarter and full year earnings guidance, but it did say it's going to have lower sales than the company's earlier forecast and that's obviously what hurt the stock. Baxter International (BAX) moving up $1.30. Merrill Lynch upgraded it from "neutral" to "buy," citing the company's strong growth potential. And Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), look at that move, up $6.41. This week's "Barron's" financial magazine quotes money manager at Contine (ph) Associates who sees iron ore prices going to $4 to $5 a ton and sees Cleveland-Cliffs' earnings rising to $4 to $6 a share by 2005, also sees the stock going to $60 a share. Penn Virginia (PVA) up $4.83. First Albany brokerage upgraded it from "buy" to a "strong buy." This company leases out mineral rights and royalties for oil, gas and coal, as well as timber properties and those are very popular areas these days. And Peabody Energy (BTU), a coal producer, up $2.65. Morgan Stanley this morning was out with positive comments on the coal stock in general. The whole group was very firm. Investment Technology Group (ITG) was down $0.87, traded as low as $15.02. The company's November U.S. trading volume dropped to 1.4 billion shares from last year's 1.9 billion shares. And the steels were strong. U.S. Steel (X) up $1.78. Merrill Lynch made positive comments on the U.S. steel industry. This helped a lot of stocks in the sector, including AK Steel Holdings (AKS) up $0.60, good percentage move. And Wheeling Pittsburgh (WPSC) a nice move up, $2.57. Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list on NASDAQ, edging up $0.26. Soundview Financial upgraded it from "neutral" to "outperform" with a $33 a share target. Intel (INTC) down $0.46. Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.54 gain. Amgen (AMGN) down $0.35. Applied Materials (AMAT) was up $0.11, fifth in volume. SanDisk (SNDK) rose nearly $2. Medimmune (MEDI) $0.78 gain there. Qualcomm (QCOM) down $0.26. Dell (DELL) up $0.21. And JetBlue Airways (JBLU) rebounding $1.94. Merrill Lynch upgraded it from "neutral" to "buy." Friday the stock off $5.50 after JetBlue issued a fourth quarter earnings warning. Also Raymond James Financial today, another brokerage, upgraded it from "market perform" to "outperform." CV Therapeutics (CVTX) dropping $4.55. FDA said the company may need to run more clinical trials on its angina drug, Renexa (ph), before it can be approved. And Cerner (CERN) tumbling $4.39. The company provides information systems to health organizations and it was not selected for two major British information technology contracts. And those are the stocks in the news tonight. Susie.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9965.27 +102.59 + 1.0
HIGH 9970.16
LOW 9859.57
NASDAQ COMP. 1948.85 +11.03 +.6
HIGH 1948.94
LOW 1926.94
VOLUME 1,193.6
PREVIOUS 1,228.6
UP VOLUME 738.1
DOWN VOLUME 438.3
DOW TRANSPORTS 2929.47 +18.89 + .7
DOW UTILITIES 255.61 +1.80 + .7
CLOSING TICK +818
S&P 500 1069.30 +7.80 + .7
S&P 100 527.67 +4.16 + .8
MIDCAP 400 566.66 +4.37 + .8
REUTERS/CRB 260.61 +3.07 + 1.2
NYSE COMPOSITE 6166.17 +43.28 + .7
VALUE LINE 350.78 +2.31 0.66
RUSSELL 2000 543.04 +4.03 0.75
WILSHIRE 5000 10425.16 +72.56 0.7
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Nov. 15,2008 100 17/32 -6/32 3.25
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Nov. 15,2013 99 27/32 -10/32 4.27
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 103 26/32 -23/32 5.11
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1723.27 -11.51
DOW CLOSE 9965.27 +102.59 + 1.0
ADVANCES 2157
DECLINES 1088
NEW HIGHS 339
NEW LOWS 5
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
TXN Texas Instrument 28.24 -.12 -.4
HMA Health Mgmt 23.12 -2.89 -11.1
NOK Nokia 17.90 -.17 -.9
MOT Motorola 13.17 -.18 -1.4
EMC EMC Corp 13.07 -.04 -.3
GE GE 29.37 +.27 +.9
LU Lucent Tech 3.02 -.03 -1.0
PFE Pfizer 34.43 +.23 +.7
XOM Exxon Mobil 37.40 +.62 +1.7
L Liberty Media 10.46 -.06 -.6
NASDAQ CLOSE 1948.85 + 11.03 + .6
VOLUME 1,589.4
PREVIOUS 1,671.8
ADVANCES 1675
DECLINES 1485
NASDAQ ACTIVES
MSFT Microsoft 26.24 +.26 +1.0
INTC Intel 31.64 -.46 -1.4
CSCO Cisco Systems 24.29 +.54 +2.3
AMGN Amgen 57.95 -.35 -.6
AMAT Applied Matl 22.45 +.11 +.5
SNDK SanDisk 66.34 +1.99 +3.1
MEDI Medimmune 27.82 +.78 +2.9
QCOM Qualcomm 49.22 -.26 -.5
DELL Dell Inc 34.71 +.21 +.6
JBLU Jetblue Airways 27.80 +1.94 +7.5
AMEX CLOSE 1130.26 + 11.70 + 1.1
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 99.81 +1.01 +1.0
QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.23 +.19 +.5
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 107.57 +.75 +.7
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
MCD McDonald's 25.62 -.37 -1.4
AVP Avon Products 62.67 -5.40 -7.9
BAX Baxter Intl 29.50 +1.30 +4.6
CLF Cleveland Cliffs 46.04 +6.41 +16.2
PVA Penn Virginia 53.23 +4.83 +10.0
BTU Peabody Energy 39.24 +2.65 +7.2
ITG Invest Tech Grp 15.75 -.87 -5.2
X US Steel Corp 27.91 +1.78 +6.8
AKS AK Steel Holdings 3.93 +.60 +18.0
WPSC Wheeling Pitts 9.00 +2.57 +40.0
CVTX CV Therapeutics 12.21 -4.55 -27.2
CERN Cerner 37.40 -4.39 -10.5
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