Summer Stock Review & September Outlook
The Outlook For Oil With Bill O`Grady of A.G. Edwards
Road To The White House-Oregon's Election By Mail
"Commentary"-Advertising Knows No Boundaries
The Last Word: Golden State Garage Sale
Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News
Market Stats

SUSIE GHARIB: Oil prices continued their slide, but not enough to fuel another rise in the stock market. The Dow and the NASDAQ both slipped about eight points today. Investors seem to be focusing more on vacation plans and less on their stock portfolios. Suzanne Pratt takes a closer look at market performance in the last weeks of summer.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It looks like most stock investors are once again suffering the dog days of August. All of the major indexes have essentially treaded water this month. That`s probably not surprising when you consider that in the last 15 years, August has been the worst month for the Dow and the second worst month for the NASDAQ. Exactly why this happens is unclear, although some market pros say the summer in general is usually a bad season for stocks. Unfortunately, if history is any guide to future performance, September is unlikely to be any better. According to the "Stock Traders Almanac," since 1950, September has ranked on average as the worst month for both the Dow and S&P 500. That`s followed by June and August for the Dow and February and August for the S&P. And some experts say, history or not, this September, conditions really aren`t very good for equities.

MICHAEL METZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, OPPENHEIMER: I think we have problems in the sense that we`ve passed the period of peak economic momentum. You`re not going to have a fiscal and monetary stimulus. I think the earnings growth has peaked also. So meanwhile, I think we`ll have higher interest rates, some uptick in inflation. This is a difficult environment for the stock market.

PRATT: Others believe September will again be a problem month for stocks because companies often red flag third quarter and full ear earnings at some point during the month. Still, others say while September may be tough, it could ultimately be a good thing for some investors.

CHRISTOPHER WOLFE, HEAD OF EQUITIES, JP MORGAN PRIVATE BANK: We think that`s actually a buying opportunity because our theme from great to good means that the market is likely to overreact. Good environment, good revenue growth of 5 or 6 percent, still means that we want to own risky assets. We want to own stocks in client portfolios.

PRATT: For those who like historical data, here`s another statistical tidbit to chew on: since 1948, stocks have fared up pretty well in presidential election years. That is until the last election in 2000, when the Dow dropped more than 5 percent for the year. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: The Outlook For Oil With Bill O`Grady of A.G. Edwards

SUSIE GHARIB: The state of Iraq`s oil exports is in turmoil tonight, with conflicting reports on just how much crude is being pumped and the confusion is partly due to this: a huge fire at an oil pumping station south of Basra. A top Iraqi oil official says this fire and other acts of sabotage have cut exports in half, but British troops in charge of security in the area dispute that, saying it isn`t clear if any pipelines have been attacked. One thing is certain, though, the continuing violence is taking an economic toll. Iraq`s interim prime minister said last week the country has lost over $1 billion in oil exports. Meanwhile, as we mentioned earlier, the price of oil fell again today, off $0.37 to $43.10. The October futures contract is now roughly 12 percent below its record high. Joining us now to talk more about the outlook for oil, Bill O`Grady. He`s director of futures research at A.G. Edwards. Hi Bill.

BILL O`GRADY, DIRECTOR OF FUTURES RESEARCH, A.G. EDWARDS: Hi Susie.

GHARIB: All right. So we`ve seen prices rising sharply and now they`re falling sharply. Where do you see prices setting out?

O`GRADY: We`re probably coming into a zone where the market will probably find its feet. I suspect it will find it a little bit north of $40. We are coming into a time of the year where gasoline demand drops off and we get some refinery maintenance but at the same time, we`re moving into the fourth quarter and fourth quarter tends to be one of the strongest demand periods for oil.

GHARIB: Is this correction temporary or can you see oil prices shooting right back up to the $50 level?

O`GRADY: It wouldn`t shock me to see oil prices do better because I think the primary fundamental which is continued strength and demand is still there. We`ve had some economic numbers from the U.S. that have been a little soft recently and from China but there`s no evidence of what we would call a recessionary situation developing.

GHARIB: Is there a fair value for oil based on fundamentals?

O`GRADY: Boy, you know, I wish there were. We`re kind of in one of these transition periods to where we don`t know how to put the value on inventory and that`s always one of the key variables in any fair value model and because we don`t, we`re still kind of floating around, sort of like a blind man in a dark room.

GHARIB: It seems that prices have been responding partly to the oil situation in Iraq but as you just heard us report, there are conflicting stories about exactly what`s going on there. What`s your take on the Iraqi oil situation?

O`GRADY: The Iraqi oil situation is still very unsettled and even with the good news of a peace deal in Najaf, we`re still looking at a situation that is unsettled virtually across the country and probably a long time before it does get fixed and the primary problem there is that although they will produce oil, it`s going to be tough to attract foreign investment in such an unsettled atmosphere.

GHARIB: Now the last time that you were on, we were talking about the supply demand situation. You talked about increased demand in China and in India and that`s one of the reasons that`s pushing prices up. Has the long term supply demand situation changed now that we`re seeing prices coming down?

O`GRADY: Not really. We have heard word recently that maybe by October the Saudis will have another 8,000 barrels a day of production coming on stream. What we don`t know though sadly is if that production is going to actually boost their capacity or simply offset depletion in other areas. And the general thinking is these fields are coming on to keep capacity from falling further but not add to any. So now that really been fixed. We`re still stuck in this situation where if demand continues to rise, it faces supply verticality and that could cause prices to go up much quicker than we anticipate.

GHARIB: We just have a few seconds left. What are some of the issues that you are monitoring? What are you watching that will give you an indication of the direction of oil from here?

O`GRADY: We`re watching two things: Economic growth and weather. If it gets really cold, it`s going to send prices higher.

GHARIB: All right. Thanks a lot Bill. It`s great to have you on the program to explain it all to us.

O`GRADY: Thank you Susie.

GHARIB: We`ve been speaking with Bill O`Grady of A.G. Edwards.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: Road To The White House-Oregon's Election By Mail

SUSIE GHARIB: Election Day this year is November 2, but the first votes for president will be cast weeks before then. As election rules change, more and more Americans are voting early. But Oregon is the only state where the entire election will be held by mail. Tonight, as we continue along the road to the White House, Darren Gersh reports from Portland on the potential and the price tag of voting early.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In Oregon, this is the ballot box. All the voting here is by mail-- no polling places, no standing in line. This election, voters will start dropping ballots into Oregon mailboxes beginning in mid-October, which helps explain the furious pace of campaigning now underway in this battleground state.

PAIGE RICHARDSON, OREGON STATE DIRECTOR, KERRY-EDWARDS 2004: It`s good news, bad news. We don`t just have the 12 hours to make sure all our people vote. We have a longer period of time. But you also have to make sure that your folks actually find a stamp, get it into the mail or that they received their ballot.

GERSH: Early voting also allows campaigns to pinpoint supporters. It`s a process that requires thousands of volunteers to make sure the right voters mail in their ballots at the right time.

MOLLY BORDONARO, NORTHWEST REGIONAL CHAIR, BUSH-CHENEY `04: It definitely moves campaign to a more focus on grassroots, because you have three weeks to basically get out the vote, where when you just vote in one day, you have 24 hours, 48 hours to work on get out the vote.

GERSH: Oregon is not alone. 31 states now permit some form of early voting. In the last presidential election, one out of every six votes was cast before Election Day. Early voting is a growing trend nationwide and one likely to make already expensive campaigns even more costly. In early voting states, campaigns have to sustain an Election Day intensity for weeks. Many political pros say that means more advertising, raising the cost of campaigning by 10 to 25 percent.

RICHARDSON: The quintessential last two weeks of an election for us are the last five weeks.

GERSH: State officials believe making elections more convenient increases turn out. But there are trade-offs. In Oregon, the ballot itself is secret, but the names of those who have mailed in their ballots is a public record, so campaigns can make a last minute push for those who haven`t voted. But in other states, no one knows who has voted early and campaigns are forced to spend money to reach people who`ve already made their decision.

PAUL GRONKE, POLITICAL ANALYST, REED COLLEGE: It`s like you`re trying to sell something to somebody and they`ve already bought and they`ve already tuned out. They`re kind of done with the campaign. They wish that you would stop bothering them.

GERSH: But pollster Tim Hibbitts says it`s wrong to blame rising campaign costs on early voting. He says costs are going up anyway.

TIM HIBBITTS, POLLSTER, DAVIS, HIBBITTS & MIDGHALL: I`ve always seen campaigns in the time that I`ve been involved in hem and observed them to say, let`s raise as much as we can. We build backwards from election day to find out how much advertising we can put on the air.

GERSH: Skeptics of early voting say there are more far-reaching concerns. They worry yet another community event is disappearing. Instead of gathering with neighbors on Election Day, more and more Americans are voting at different times based on different information.

GRONKE: And so that sense of civic experience, where we build towards the Election Day really kind of disappears.

GERSH: Although the evidence is mixed, states with early voting argue it gives voters more time to think through their choices. There is particular concern with mail-in ballots which pull back the curtain of secrecy that surrounds the traditional voting booth. Analyst Norman Ornstein fears that breeds corruption.

NORMAN ORNSTEIN, POLITICAL ANALYST, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: You can have overt corruption where people forge ballots, coerce people to vote in a particular way or fill them out for the elderly. You can have quiet corruption where a spouse stands over the shoulder of his or her partner to make sure they vote the way they want them to.

GERSH: In Oregon, a state with a tradition of clean politics, early voting seems popular. But for the nation, it is not yet clear what costs come with the convenience and whether it`s worth replacing Election Day with election month. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Portland.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: "Commentary"-Advertising Knows No Boundaries

SUSIE GHARIB: Well, tonight`s commentator looks at that age-old question: what`s in a name and he comes up with a surprising answer. Here`s Irving R. Levine, dean of international studies at Lynn University and former chief economics correspondent for NBC News.

IRVING R. LEVINE, DEAN, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, LYNN UNIVERSITY: I was disappointed, but not surprised, to see that even at the Olympics, athletes display advertising on their uniforms. The logos for Nike, Converse, Speedo are discrete. No blatant ads as on the outfits worn by NASCAR drivers. But still, it shows that advertising is increasingly ubiquitous. For example, earlier this year, I got on a bus in Hong Kong and was confronted by commercials on a TV screen staring me in the face. Last month in Rome, I was taken aback by huge ads for cosmetics displayed on the scaffolding of ancient buildings undergoing repairs. A new law permits property owners to sell advertising space on scaffolding to help pay for repairs. Some crafty Romans are putting scaffolding on buildings that require no repairs just to sell the space. Now, New York may sell corporations the right to put their names on subway stations. One subway rider suggested that naming a station for Spic and Span might encourage a scrubbing. Where will it end? A letter to the editor of the "New York Times" suggests that soon you may be paid if you tattoo a corporate logo on your forehead. I like the idea. After all, the more space you have on your forehead, the more money advertisers should pay you. I am Irving R. Levine.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: The Last Word: Golden State Garage Sale

SUSIE GHARIB: And finally, it could be the world`s largest garage sale. The state of California is cleaning out its closets, so to speak, by holding a huge sale in Sacramento tomorrow and Saturday to get rid of unwanted state property. Among the items: office furniture; 30 pounds of scissors, forklifts, expired film and even a red 1995 Ford Mustang will be up for grabs. Some of the stuff was confiscated at airports, and some was bought by the government agencies and never used. The idea is to generate cash to help defray the state`s burgeoning budget deficit. And there could be some big bargains, including laptop computers that are expected to sell for as little as $20. And Paul, you don`t have to be in California to be a buyer. Some of the bigger items, including that Mustang, are available on eBay.

KANGAS: Yeah I know Susie, but I`ve got a garage at home that makes this look like child`s play it`s got so much junk in it.

GHARIB: Oh, really?

KANGAS: Unbelievable.

GHARIB: Do you have a red Mustang?

KANGAS: No.

GHARIB: Not interested.

KANGAS: No, I got an old Chevy.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: "'Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street posted small losses in early trading today, after a larger-than-expected rise of 10,000 in the latest weekly jobless benefit claims, even though hurricane Charley caused about half of them. Despite a downturn in oil prices, the market remained mired in modestly lower ground the rest of the day largely on weakness in the semiconductor sector after a downgrade from Bank of America Securities. So the Dow Industrial Average closed with a loss of 8 1/3 points at 10,173.41. The NASDAQ Composite was down 7 3/4 points at 1852.92. Standard & Poor`s 500 gained a fraction to 1105.09. In the bond market, the 10-year note rose 14/32 to par and 9/32, putting the yield at 4.22 percent. The rising cost of jet fuel is forcing American Airlines to burn through cash. Late today, the carrier said it expects fuel prices to add more than a billion dollars to its expenses when compared to last year. In a regulatory filing, AMR, the parent of American, said its third quarter and 2004 outlooks have worsened because of this problem.

Most active big board issue on 12 1/2 million shares, Corning (GLW) down $0.38, a little profit taking there.

Pfizer (PFE) moved up $0.40. I`ll have more news on that in just a moment.

Lucent Technologies (LU) a $0.03 gain.

Nokia (NOK) up $0.09.

J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) gained a penny, fifth in big board volume.

And then Merck (MRK) down $0.97. It was as low as $44.72 today. A study by an FDA researcher shows patients taking Merck`s Viox arthritis drug are at higher risk of having heart attacks than those treated with Pfizer`s Celebrex treatment. Merck disputes the findings but the safety concerns prompted Kaiser Permanente, one of the nation`s top HMOs, to consider halting future prescriptions of Merck`s Viox.

ExxonMobil (XOM) $0.06 gain.

AT&T Wireless (AWE) edged up a penny.

Citigroup (C) $0.16 rise.

No change at all today in General Electric (GE), tenth in volume.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down $0.38. Banc of America Securities downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral" on concern about excessive chip inventories and slowing GDP growth. Banc America downgraded another, several other chip stocks similarly. Let`s have a look at some of these results, all just fractional losses. Broadcom (BRCM), Intel (INTC), Micron Technology (MU) and Texas Instruments (TXN), not a great deal of impact from the downgrade.

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was up $0.66. New York Attorney General Spitzer said the company agreed to settle a lawsuit over unpublished clinical trials for $2.5 million and a promise to publish summaries of all of its drug trials, positive or negative. The case involved here had to do with the company`s Paxil depression drug and apparently the problems it had when it was given to children.

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) up $0.43. Goldman Sachs upgraded it from "under perform" to "in line."

And then Baxter International (BAX) losing $0.91. UBS Securities downgraded it from "neutral" to "reduce" on a valuation basis.

Potlatch Corporation (PCH) up $3.55. The company`s going to sell its strand board manufacturing facilities to Ainsworth Lumber for $457 1/2 million in cash.

Boston Beer (SAM) tumbling $3.97. Prudential downgraded it from "overweight" to "neutral" after the company said it expects to spend $2 1/2 to $3 1/2 million more on ads and promotions this year than it spent last year.

Anteon International (ANT) down $1.06. The company provides information technology solutions to government clients and Legg Mason brokerage downgraded it from "buy" to just a "hold" rating.

And A.O. Smith (AOS), which makes electric motors and water heaters, was downgraded by Baird securities from "outperform" to "neutral." Baird has doubts about the company`s earnings forecast apparently.

Intel (INTC) topped the active list on NASDAQ on that downgrade by Bank America, lost $0.18.

And Microsoft (MSFT) down $0.11.

But Apollo Group (APOL) jumping $6.08. The company`s chief executive says the company plans to open at least seven new schools and he predicted fourth quarter earnings would be $0.56, well above the $0.48 Wall Street estimate.

eBay (EBAY), $0.75 gain.

And Gilead Sciences (GILD) moving up $2.42. Preliminary results show that a combination treatment has promise in reaction against AIDS.

Starbucks (SBUX) down $2.97. The company`s August same store sales were up 8 percent, but that`s the slowest growth Starbucks has had in the last 10 months.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.15 drop.

Apple Computer (AAPL) moving up $1.61. Tomorrow, Hewlett-Packard is going to launch Apple`s iPod digital music player, a lot of optimism about that obviously.

Applied Materials (AMAT) was down $0.28.

And tenth in dollar volume on NASDAQ, Research In Motion (RIMM) down $0.99.

And those are the stocks in the news tonight.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

08/26/04: Market Stats

				      NET    PERCENT
                         CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE



DOW CLOSE             10173.41      -8.33       - .1
HIGH                                        10193.54
LOW                                         10155.86

NASDAQ COMP.           1852.92      -7.80        -.4
HIGH                                         1860.39
LOW                                          1848.88

VOLUME                                       1,023.7
PREVIOUS                                     1,192.1
UP VOLUME                                      553.0
DOWN VOLUME                                    447.0

DOW TRANSPORTS         3108.84      -5.16       - .2
DOW UTILITIES           286.38       -.29       - .1
CLOSING TICK                                    +499

S&P 500                1105.09       +.13       + .0
S&P 100                 539.46       -.11       - .0
MIDCAP 400              576.14       +.21       + .0
REUTERS/CRB             271.46       -.59       - .2

NYSE COMPOSITE         6439.80      +8.01       + .1
VALUE LINE              349.44       -.89       - .3
RUSSELL 2000            547.25      -2.89       - .5
DJW 5000              10721.63      -2.06       - .0

U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.625%
July 15,2009         100 14/32      +8/32     + 3.41

10-YEAR NOTE 4.75%
May 15,2014          100  9/32     +14/32     + 4.22

30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031        105 11/32     +18/32     + 5.01

LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX        1737.44      +5.90


DOW CLOSE             10173.41      -8.33       - .1
ADVANCES                                        1816
DECLINES                                        1459
NEW HIGHS                                        104
NEW LOWS                                          15

                                      NET    PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES    4PM CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE
GLW   Corning             9.88       -.38       -3.7
PFE   Pfizer             32.31       +.40       +1.3
LU    Lucent Tech         3.20       +.03       +1.0
NOK   Nokia Corp         11.91       +.09        +.8
JPM   JPMorgan Chase     39.45       +.01        +.0
MRK   Merck & Co         45.05       -.97       -2.1
XOM   Exxon Mobil        45.25       +.06        +.1
AWE   AT&T Wireless      14.56       +.01        +.1
C     Citigroup          46.46       +.16        +.4
GE    GE                 32.79      unch.      unch.

NASDAQ CLOSE           1852.92     - 7.80       - .4
VOLUME                                       1,192.1
PREVIOUS                                     1,320.9
ADVANCES                                        1250
DECLINES                                        1813

NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC  Intel              21.77       -.18        -.8
MSFT  Microsoft          27.44       -.11        -.4
APOL  Apollo Group       79.42      +6.08       +8.3
EBAY  eBay               86.41       +.75        +.9
GILD  Gilead Sciences    69.24      +2.42       +3.6
SBUX  Starbucks          43.07      -2.97       -6.5
CSCO  Cisco Systems      19.17       -.15        -.8
AAPL  Apple Computer     34.66      +1.61       +4.9
AMAT  Applied Matl       15.98       -.28       -1.7
RIMM  Rsch In Motion     62.38       -.99       -1.6

AMEX CLOSE             1221.73     + 4.40       + .4

INDEX SHARES
DIA   DIAMONDS TRUST    101.87       -.01        -.0
QQQ   NASDAQ 100         34.43       -.14        -.4
SPY   S&P DEP.RECEIPTS  111.10       +.06        +.1

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

AMD   Advanced Micro     11.82       -.38       -3.1
BRCM  Broadcom           29.23       -.58       -2.0
INTC  Intel              21.77       -.18        -.8
MU    Micron Tech        11.83       -.20       -1.7
TXN   Texas Instrument   20.02       -.01        -.1
GSK   GlaxoSmithKline    40.94       +.66       +1.6
EDS   Electronic Data    19.50       +.43       +2.3
BAX   Baxter Intl        30.83       -.91       -2.9
PCH   Potlatch           43.80      +3.55       +8.8
SAM   Boston Beer        23.43      -3.97      -14.5
ANT   Anteon Intl        32.83      -1.06       -3.1
AOS   A O Smith          23.85      -2.37       -9.0