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Program: Tuesday, September 7, 2004

The Bulls Return To Wall Street
Hurricane Frances' Financial Impact
shopseptembervogue.com
The Federal Budget Deficit's $422 Billion Hole
Commentary: Making The Workforce More Competitive
Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News
Market Stats

09/07/04: The Bulls Return To Wall Street

SUSIE GHARIB: Investors were in the buying mood today after the Labor Day weekend. Stocks surged as investors were encouraged by falling oil prices and upbeat corporate news. The Dow rose about 82 points and the NASDAQ gained 14. Suzanne Pratt takes a look at whether Wall Street expects the buying spree to continue.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It's official. Wall Street's long summer vacation is finally over. But, will cooler temperatures actually put an end to the stock market's summer doldrums and reinvigorate stock investors? Many market pros are starting to answer "yes." They say even though fall is historically a weak season for stocks with September being a particularly bad month, this year could be different. Not only do stocks do better in presidential election years, but some experts are also forecasting a nice pickup in business spending. On top of that, they point out that oil prices have been falling.

DOUGLAS ALTABEF, PORTFOLIO MGR., MATRIX ADVISORS: We think that with the abatement of the price of oil, there may be some calming down of the financial markets that will allow for stocks to continue to rise.

PRATT: The last few weeks have been surprisingly good for stocks with both the Dow and the S&P 500 gaining about five percent. But, no matter how you look at it, 2004 has been a lackluster year for the markets. The Dow has traded in a fairly narrow range and is currently below where it began the year. And, while there are still those experts who believe a stumbling economy will derail any rally that comes this fall, many others are predicting stocks will ultimately end the year higher. They say not only are many stocks somewhat undervalued, but they expect corporate profits to remain respectable in the coming quarters.

HENRY "CHIP" DICKSON, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, LEHMAN BROS.: Even thought we see earnings growth slowing, we still see earnings growth. And, as long as we don't have a hard landing, even if it's a soft landing, typically the market should respond pretty well.

PRATT: Nevertheless, Lehman and Dickson only expect the stock market to stage a somewhat minor rally in the remaining months of this year. They are predicting a 6 percent gain for the Dow and a 3 percent increase for the S&P 500. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/07/04: Hurricane Frances' Financial Impact

PAUL KANGAS: A large swath of the southeastern United States is feeling the effects and the after-effects of hurricane Frances tonight. The hurricane pummeled Florida over the Labor Day weekend and now, as a tropical storm, is inundating Alabama and Georgia. Insurers are tallying up the damage and generally breathing a sigh of relief as Jeff Yastine found out when he spent today in the field with an insurance adjuster.

RAY DAVIDSON, SR. PROPERTY GENERAL ADJUSTER, THE HARTFORD: Hi, Ms. Timpano. Hi, I'm Ray Davidson with the Hartford. How are you?

JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: After suffering through a weekend of wind and rain, storm-weary homeowner Dorothy Timpano finds a welcome sight -- an insurance adjuster ready to start writing out her claim checks. Timpano lives in Martin County, Florida, near where Frances came ashore. She evacuated as the storm approached with her phone ringing off the hook.

DOROTHY TIMPANO, HOMEOWNER: Everybody was trying to call me from New York and they couldn't get through. The last thing I said to them, "I've got to go to a shelter" and the phone kept ringing, asking "how bad is it down there?"

YASTINE: For Timpano, it was plenty bad. She lost a chunk of her roof and a window. And drenching rains collapsed parts of her ceilings and ruined much of what was inside her home. Davidson wrote out a $7,500 check for starters but thousands of dollars more will follow after Timpano's claim is processed. For Davidson, this is his second trip to Florida in as many months.

DAVIDSON: Hurricane Charley, working on the other coast, came through rather quickly and the immediate damages seemed more direct and more severe, because it was a higher-category storm. But I think this one's going to cause a lot of problems just because it took so long and so much rain fell.

YASTINE: Insurance companies have just begun moving in their disaster teams, beginning the process of assessing damages. Early estimates put the insured losses from Frances at $3 to $6 billion. That's smaller than hurricane Charley and analysts say, well within the financial capabilities of insurance companies. Insurers were already expecting an impact to their quarterly earnings because of the storms, but the irony is it could actually help their bottom lines in the long run. The odds of Florida getting hit by two hurricanes in one season, was previously thought to be quite low. But after Frances and Charley, those odds will be revised higher and so too could the premiums that insurance companies charge homeowners. Analysts say there could be other positive effects for insurers.

PAUL NEWSOME, SR. RESEARCH ANALYST, A.G. EDWARDS: There aren't any insolvencies. The companies are able to handle these risks quite a bit. I think there's actually a chance that over the longer term, these companies are allowed to use less capital, which would help returns quite a bit because they would be more capital efficient.

YASTINE: Tonight, financial help is pouring in and Congress is expected to approve $2 billion in emergency aid. But tonight Floridians are keeping a wary eye on another storm, hurricane Ivan, now churning in the eastern Caribbean. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Stuart, Florida.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/07/04: shopseptembervogue.com

SUSIE GHARIB: One of America's best known magazine publishers is conducting an unusual experiment this month: letting its readers window shop on the web. Conde Nast's "Vogue" magazine has put virtually all the pages of its September edition onto the Internet in an interactive format that lets users find and buy virtually everything in the book. The web site is shopseptembervogue.com. It's the first time such an extensive effort has been made including product details, local retailers, and an immediate opportunity to buy. Joining us now to talk more about this advertising and shopping bonanza, Tom Florio, publisher of "Vogue" magazine. Hi, Tom. Nice to have you with us.

THOMAS FLORIO, PUBLISHER, VOGUE MAGAZINE: How are you?

GHARIB: I'm fine. All the women in our newsroom were really excited when we checked out, we first looked at the magazine and then we checked out and clicked on the web and it was a very interesting way to shop. I'm wondering why did "Vogue" decide to do this?

FLORIO: Well, the September issue of "Vogue" is often referred to as the fashion bible. One in 10 American women will pick up the magazine. So we know that kind of the world has come to look at "Vogue" to see what the looks will be for the fall, so to speak. Take to that and add to it essentially that the "Vogue" reader will spend about $5 billion on apparel in a year. So we thought that this was a really organic way for them to be able to read the magazine, see what they like, look at the ad pages and then go on line and in fact see if the product is available and then in many cases click right to buy.

GHARIB: What has been the response from the shoppers, the readers, as well as from advertisers?

FLORIO: Well, as you see with the size of the issue the response from the advertising community has been quite positive. There's over 647 ad pages in the magazine, which make it the largest issue of "Vogue" in over 112 years and the largest monthly consumer magazine ever published. So the advertisers loved it. What we're finding only two weeks up right now is that the consumers like it as well. We have about 700,000 page views going on so far and it appears that we have over $2 million in click throughs to buy in the first two weeks. So it seems that the reaction to the whole project is very successful.

GHARIB: Were you expecting that kind of response?

FLORIO: You know, it's always difficult when for me anyway when you're looking at uncharted territory of exactly what to expect. Nothing like this has ever been done before. So our expectation was maybe 160,000 to 200,000 people would log on. We definitely see us hitting that number. So we're pleased.

GHARIB: You said this is an experiment, a research project. What have you learned from this experiment about shoppers, about trend in shopping?

FLORIO: Well, there's a few things going on. First of all, on a more macro scale, not a lot of luxury brands are using the Internet. There's this idea of would somebody buy a (INAUDIBLE) shoe for $500 on the Internet? So to set this up as a research project, using the "Vogue" brand, and just to be clear, what we do is we put the pages up, they can scroll through it, see the product, but when we pass them on for a purchase we pass them onto the particular store or a client's URL to do the purchase. But what we've learned is that the answer is yes, people are buying (INAUDIBLE) shoes on the Internet. But they're also buying Ann Taylor on the Internet, and that probably for me is one of the most interesting things to see. There's a lot of conversations today about fashion being high low, on some of the obvious ones are you have Isaac Mizraki (ph) doing Target, but he's also doing a couture line, and most recently Carl Lagerfeld, who is very well known, has his own brand, but Vivendi (ph) and Chanel, is doing H and M (ph). So for us to see the results coming in with Chanel, Ann Taylor, Minola Blonick (ph) Target, all from the same reader base --.

GHARIB: So does this lesson tell you something, is there a different way to advertise going forward?

FLORIO: I don't necessarily know if there's a different way to advertise. As much as it adds an additional dimension to really what the pages of "Vogue" can do for you. I mean "Vogue" for a very long time has been able to build brands for people, and we know, which is again the reason why the magazine is typically so big in September, we know that if you advertise in "Vogue," people come into your store and buy.

GHARIB: Real quickly Tom because we got to run, will you repeat this? Will this become a regular segment of "Vogue" magazine?

FLORIO: What we're going to do is we're going to gather data and we've hired a company to do it. And if we see the results continuing the way they've been continuing, then we'll try it again in March and from that point we'll roll it out.

GHARIB: Oh, we look forward to that. Thanks a lot for coming on and talking to us tonight.

FLORIO: Thank you.

GHARIB: We've been speaking with Tom Florio, publisher of "Vogue" magazine.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/07/04: The Federal Budget Deficit's $422 billion Hole

PAUL KANGAS: The Federal budget is still awash in red ink. Today the Congressional Budget Office said the deficit this year will top $422 billion. While that's big, it's $55 billion smaller than what was forecast back in March. But as Darren Gersh reports, things don't look so good farther down the budget road.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Add up all the red ink over the next 10 years and the Congressional Budget Office says the Federal government will run short by $2.3 trillion.

DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, DIRECTOR, CBO: This is a fiscal situation in which we cannot rely on economic growth to cause deficits to disappear. Instead, the central path of the budgetary outlook will be dictated by policy choices.

GERSH: Including choices about Iraq. The baseline budget projections assume spending in Iraq will stay at current levels over the next decade. But if troops are drawn down over the next two years leaving behind a smaller force, that would shrink the 10-year deficit by a trillion dollars. But making the president's tax cuts permanent would add back $1.5 trillion. Reforming the alternative minimum tax, something Democrats and Republicans agree needs to be done, would bring the deficit total to more than $3 trillion. Democratic presidential challenger John Kerry says the deficit is another area where Mr. Bush is wrong.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He had $5.6 trillion of surplus, right. He made a choice about what to do with that.

GERSH: And it was the right choice, the Bush campaign says. Pointing to a $55 billion drop in this year's deficit, a campaign aide said economic growth is picking up in response to the president's tax cuts.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Raising taxes now is the wrong thing to do right now in America.

GERSH: In today's numbers, you can now see the footprints of the baby boomers as they begin to march into retirement.

HOLTZ-EAKIN: Those spending pressures leave Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security combined to reach one-half of all Federal spending by the end of this budget window.

GERSH: By the way, if the Social Security surplus was not included in the budget numbers, the deficit would be $4.7 trillion over 10 years, Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/07/04: Commentary: Making The Workforce More Competitive

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator says it's time to make American workers more competitive in the marketplace and he's got some suggestions on how to accomplish that. Here's Todd Buchholz, author of Bringing the Jobs Home.

TODD BUCHHOLZ, AUTHOR AND FMR. WHITE HOUSE ADVISOR: Imagine you're going to a job interview. You've researched the firm, picked out a neat new suit, polished your shoes to a blazing shine. You answer the interviewer's questions. But when you leave the office, you realize you've been wearing a sign around your neck that says: "I'm really expensive and I don't know very much." That's the burden American workers bear when they compete with foreign outsourced workers. Our students score lower than Slovenians on standardized tests. Most of our schools are like Ford Pinto's from the 1970s: underpowered, underperforming and under threat from foreigners. Some politicians and pundits denounce Benedict Arnold CEOs for moving jobs offshore. But why would you hire Americans? We cost more, not just because of wages, but also because the nearly bankrupt Social Security and Medicare systems cost more. On top of that, employers must worry about bogus lawsuits, an out-of-control litigation system that robs over $200 billion from our economy each year. My new book Bringing the Jobs Home calculates that wrongheaded U.S. policies cost us 16 million jobs. To create jobs for American workers, we must instill competition in the schools, defang the insatiable tort lawyers, confront the looming Medicare crisis and invite more skilled immigrants to our shores. That's a tall work order, yes. But unless we face up to it, we will have a lot of time on our hands and not much other work to do. I'm Todd Buchholz.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

9/07/04: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened with a spirited rally thanks to a drop in oil prices and some relief that hurricane Frances didn't do as much damage as feared. At mid-morning, the Dow was up about 70 points, the NASDAQ Index up 15. Many investors returning from vacation were impressed by the early rally and decided to join it this afternoon. So the Dow Industrial Average went on to close up a little over 82 1/2 points at 10,342.79. The NASDAQ Composite rose 14 points, ending at 1858.56. Standard & Poor's 500 gained 7 2/3 points to close at 1121.30. Over in the bond market, the 10-year note rose 12/32, pulling the yield down to 4.24 percent.

New York exchange volume leader on 15.4 million shares, General Electric (NYSE:GE) moving up a half a dollar.

Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) down $0.46 in that semiconductor group.

Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) dropped $0.85. That's a 19 percent drop. The company warned 2004 earnings will be in the range of $0.16 to $0.22, well below the $0.27 per share Wall Street estimate. The company cites tough competition in the mail order drug prescription business.

Motorola (NYSE:MOT) another weak semiconductor down $0.46.

Tyco International (NYSE:TYC) dropped $0.42, fifth in big board volume.

Then Nokia (NYSE:NOK) moving up $0.18.

Followed by Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) with a $0.18 gain.

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) edged $0.09 higher.

Lucent Technologies (NYSE:LU) an $0.08 gain.

And tenth in volume, J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) with a $0.02 gain.

American International Group (NYSE:AIG) rising $0.90. Preliminary damage estimates from the hurricane Frances appear to be lower than expected as you heard earlier and that had a positive impact on the whole sector.

Allstate (NYSE:ALL) doing all right, up $0.89.

And better than $1 gains in Chubb (NYSE:CB) and Hartford International (NYSE:HIG)

Federated Department Stores (NYSE:FD) an $0.84 gain there. The company said hurricane Frances will shave $0.03 to $0.04 per share off its third quarter earnings. Stock still managed to gain a little.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) moving up $1.02. The FDA has approved the company's anti-depressant drug called Cymbalta.

Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE:HOV), the home builder, up $3.27. Third quarter earnings $1.33, well above last year's $1.06 a share. Company sees full year earnings in the range of at least $5.30 and that's well above its earlier estimate of $5 a share.

Fleetwood Enterprises (NYSE:FLE) up $1.66, in with better than double the first quarter earnings from last year, $0.12 versus $0.05 and Street estimate was only $0.05.

Lexmark International (NYSE:LXK) tumbling $4.14. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and the company announced voluntary recalls on some of Lexmark's laser printers which it makes along with Dell and IBM. UBS brokerage downgraded the stock from "buy" to just a "neutral" rating.

National Semiconductor (NYSE:NSM) dropping $0.75. Lehman Brothers downgraded it from "over weight" to "equal weight" and cut the price target from $20 down to $15 a share.

Seagate Technology (NYSE:STX) edging $0.45 higher. Company sees first quarter earnings coming in between $0.06 and $0.08 a share, way above the $0.03 Wall Street estimate.

International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT) gained $1.84. This week's "Barron's" financial magazine notes the stock is down almost 40 percent from its 52-week high and strong demand for gaming (INAUDIBLE) could boost it by 20 to 40 percent in the next 18 to 24 months.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) topped NASDAQ's most active list, $0.16 loss.

Followed by Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) up $0.25.

eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) $0.28 loss.

Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) gained $0.30. CIBC World Markets brokerage upgraded it from "sector perform" to "sector outperform."

Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) gained $3.07.

Dell (NASDAQ:DELL) a $0.04 loss.

$0.84 gain in QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM).

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) dropped a penny.

Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) rising $0.18.

And Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) $0.39 gain there.

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) up $1.05. "Newsweek" magazine reports the company's close to making a deal with Tivo to download movies over the Internet with Tivo devices.

TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) stock was up $0.15, 15 percent.

And VeriSign (NASDAQ:VRSN) moving up nicely. Company sees third quarter results above its earlier projections thanks to its recent acquisition of the German firm Jamba.

And those are the stocks in the news tonight.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/07/04: Market Stats


                  
                                      NET    PERCENT
                         CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE

DOW CLOSE             10342.79     +82.59       + .8
HIGH                                        10363.36
LOW                                         10261.45

NASDAQ COMP.           1858.56     +14.08        +.8
HIGH                                         1865.43
LOW                                          1847.48

VOLUME                                       1,213.8
PREVIOUS                                       923.9 
UP VOLUME                                      887.8
DOWN VOLUME                                    309.7

DOW TRANSPORTS         3181.00     +39.15      + 1.3
DOW UTILITIES           293.56      +1.31       + .5
CLOSING TICK                                    +918

S&P 500                1121.30      +7.67       + .7
S&P 100                 545.00      +3.94       + .7
MIDCAP 400              588.16      +4.35       + .8
REUTERS/CRB             270.65      -2.85      - 1.0

NYSE COMPOSITE         6555.64     +45.20       + .7
VALUE LINE              356.06      +3.12       + .9
RUSSELL 2000            562.93      +6.69      + 1.2
DJW 5000              10900.16     +79.28       + .7

U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.625%
July 15,2009         100  7/32      +6/32     + 3.45

10-YEAR NOTE 4.75%
May 15,2014          100  2/32     +12/32     + 4.24

30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031        105  9/32     +22/32     + 5.01

LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX        1736.61      +6.70


DOW CLOSE             10342.79     +82.59       + .8
ADVANCES                                        2434
DECLINES                                         890
NEW HIGHS                                        220
NEW LOWS                                          15

                                      NET    PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES    4PM CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE
GE    GE                 33.34       +.50       +1.5
TXN   Texas Instrument   18.71       -.46       -2.4
RAD   Rite Aid            3.70       -.85      -18.7
MOT   Motorola           15.68       -.46       -2.9
TYC   Tyco Intl          31.14       -.42       -1.3
NOK   Nokia              12.59       +.18       +1.5
PFE   Pfizer             32.74       +.19        +.6
XOM   Exxon Mobil        47.15       +.09        +.2
LU    Lucent Tech         3.13       +.08       +2.6
JPM   JPMorgan Chase     39.87       +.02        +.1

NASDAQ CLOSE           1858.56    + 14.08       + .8
VOLUME                                       1,326.1
PREVIOUS                                     1,115.3
ADVANCES                                        1940
DECLINES                                        1156

NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC  Intel              19.89       -.16        -.8
MSFT  Microsoft          27.36       +.25        +.9
EBAY  eBay Inc           89.10       -.28        -.3
CSCO  Cisco Systems      19.05       +.30       +1.6
RIMM  Rsch In Motion     65.45      +3.09       +5.0
DELL  Dell Inc           35.21       -.04        -.1
QCOM  Qualcomm           39.33       +.84       +2.2
AMAT  Applied Matl       15.69       -.01        -.1
YHOO  Yahoo!             29.64       +.18        +.6
AMGN  Amgen              59.92       +.39        +.7

AMEX CLOSE             1240.15     - 3.02       - .2

INDEX SHARES
DIA   DIAMONDS TRUST    103.64       +.78        +.8
QQQ   NASDAQ 100         34.40       +.25        +.7
SPY   S&P DEP.RECEIPTS  112.86       +.74        +.7

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

AIG   Amer Intl Group    72.66       +.90       +1.3
ALL   Allstate           47.91       +.89       +1.9
CB    Chubb              69.65      +1.06       +1.6
HIG   Hartford Finl      62.34      +1.11       +1.8
FD    Federated Dept     46.12       +.84       +1.9
LLY   Eli Lilly          66.00      +1.02       +1.6
HOV   Hovnanian Enterp   38.50      +3.27       +9.3
FLE   Fleetwood Enterp   15.00      +1.66      +12.4
LXK   Lexmark Intl       81.96      -4.14       -4.8
NSM   Natl Semiconduct   12.42       -.75       -5.7
STX   Seagate Tech       12.32       +.45       +3.8
IGT   Intl Game Tech     31.89      +1.84       +6.1
NFLX  NetFlix            15.41      +1.05       +7.3
VRSN  VeriSign 		   19.40      +1.55       +8.7

 

 

 

 

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