SUSIE GHARIB: Oil prices gushed to $46 today, their highest levels in about a month. In New York trading, October crude futures rose $0.76 to close at $46.35 a barrel on concerns about supply, especially supply to China. That`s because Russia`s biggest oil exporter, Yukos, says it will crimp back the pipeline to China by 100,000 barrels a day through the end of the year. Yukos says it doesn`t have the cash needed to pay export taxes on the crude. Global supplies are already strained to meet the biggest growth in demand for oil in almost a quarter of a century. Well, that supply situation, the higher energy prices it brings and its effect on our economy are key considerations for the Federal Reserve. Fed policy makers meet tomorrow to review interest rates. And as Darren Gersh reports, it`s a foregone conclusion what they will do.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It is as sure a bet as you can get in the markets. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will increase its benchmark short-term interest rate from 1.5 to 1.75 percent. Traders, analysts, and economists consider that a 100 percent certainty.

MARTIN REGALIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: It`s an economy that is really pretty strong and one that certainly doesn`t need any more monetary stimulus, so they are going to take the Fed at its word.

GERSH: That word being that the soft patch brought on by higher energy prices is behind us and the economy is gaining traction, making it safe to nudge up rates. In their much-dissected post meeting statement, Greenspan and company might point to recent news that inflation now appears under control and that growth prospects are more upbeat. But the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is not expected to reach for its thesaurus and change its operative adjective: "measured."

REGALIA: I think the Fed will stick to its measured rate increases. And I don`t really think they will change the directive too much. I think it will still be a fairly even assessment of the economy`s potential.

GERSH: But after tomorrow, the crystal ball gets hazy. At the November 10 meeting, Fed watchers consider it a better-than-even bet that the Fed will bump rates to 2 percent. But then the Fed might skip a meeting or two.

DOUGLAS LEE, PRESIDENT, ECONOMICS FROM WASHINGTON: Once they get the Fed funds rate above inflation, then I think that the path is going to be much more dependent on what happens. If inflation stays low, then they don`t need to rush.

GERSH: For much of next year, many analysts appear to be counting on that measured pace of interest rate increases to continue. But not everyone.

LEE: I`m not sure that`s going to be correct. I think inflation may move up a little faster than people are expecting at the moment and so the Fed will respond accordingly. GERSH: The Fed`s goal here, analysts say, is to achieve a kind of monetary Switzerland: a neutral interest rate of 3.5 to 4.5 percent-- one that doesn`t boost the economy, but doesn`t restrain it either. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/20/04: One On One With Fadel Gheit, Sr. Oil Analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

SUSIE GHARIB: Joining us now with his analysis: Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Oppenheimer & Co. Hi Fadel. How are you?

FADEL GHEIT, OIL & GAS ANALYST, OPPENHEIMER & CO.: Good afternoon.

GHARIB: Good. So what do you think is behind this latest spike in oil? Is it because of supply and demand issues or is there something else going on?

GHEIT: Pure speculation hasn`t been much change in the supply and the demand picture. But what has changed over the last few days is the (INAUDIBLE) exports from Yukos to China and that was exactly what the traders wanted to hear and it inflated the market one more time.

GHARIB: All right. With prices inflated and other factors playing in here, where do you see oil prices by the end of the year? What`s your forecast?

GHEIT: Unfortunately oil prices are not driven by market fundamentals. It would have been much easier to tell you that I expect oil prices to go down by $10 from here based on the current market fundamentals. But speculation has taken really the need here in (INAUDIBLE) oil prices and if it were not for speculation, I think oil prices would be below $30.

GHARIB: Would be below $30?

GHEIT: Below $30, because natural gas prices in the U.S. right now are basically about $32 per barrel equivalent of oil and this is the most expensive natural gas in the world. And if it were not for the $46 oil price, natural gas prices wouldn`t be much lower than that. So if you bring oil prices and gas prices to parity, both should be below $30 equivalent of barrel of oil.

GHARIB: Fadel, you just returned from Russia where you were meeting with oil executives there. What did you hear in terms of the outlook for Russian supplies? Is there any reason for investors to be concerned about supply disruptions from Russia?

GHEIT: Not at all. This is one thing that came clear during discussion, extensive discussions with Russian, American and European oil industry people, that there is no fear what so ever that Russia oil supply will be disrupted. And Putin made a -- almost gave personal assurance to President Bush as well as President Chirac and Gerhardt Schroeder of Germany that not only Russian oil supply would continue but will increase this year and next year.

GHARIB: So from your conversations in Russia, what`s your take away on the outlook and the future of Yukos?

GHEIT: My take away is that the decision to dismantle Yukos has already been made. The Putin government wants to make it appear as legal as possible that they will break up Yukos. I was wrong in my assumption that the government will probably invite Western oil companies to divide the Yukos property, but according to the discussion I had in Moscow, the Russian oil industry executives believe that it is likely to be divided among the leading Russian oil companies.

GHARIB: OK. Given the rising price of oil, is there still any upside to be investing in oil stocks?

GHEIT: I do believe that oil prices are at a correct a level that are not sustained by market fundamentals what so ever and they are likely to come down. The question is not if, it is when and how much. And therefore investor, I advise not to really bet on oil prices going higher because this is the only way that the stocks, oil stocks will go higher.

GHARIB: So are you saying stay away from oil stocks?

GHEIT: I would say selectively, I would say for risk averse investigator, if you believe that oil prices will go down, believe it or not, you would want to load up on the major integrated oils because when oil prices go down, the flight to quality pushed the money from the smaller independent producer and the refining stocks (INAUDIBLE) the large integrated oil.

GHARIB: All right. We`re going to have to leave it there. Fadel, thank you very much for joining us tonight.

GHEIT: You`re very welcome.

GHARIB: We`ve been speaking with Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Oppenheimer.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/20/04: MCI Is Up For Sale

PAUL KANGAS: MCI is quietly looking for buyers. Although the company formally declined comment, sources tell NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT the long distance carrier is stepping up its search for a buyer. After emerging from bankruptcy this spring, MCI shed its debt and its old WorldCom name. But as Stephanie Woods reports, the company is still struggling.

STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The business outlook for long suffering MCI is only getting worse. A shift in the telecommunications industry to voice-over-Internet and steep price cuts are taking their toll and MCI`s owners are impatient.

HANK LEVINE, ATTORNEY, LEVINE, BLASZAK, BLOCK & BOOTHBY: MCI is for sale because the companies that own it now are not long-term investors. They are primarily bond arbitrageurs who bought its debt cheap and would like to make a profit and turn it over and they see this as an opportunity to do so and are fearful that if they hold longer, they will make less.

WOODS: The most logical buyers are the so-called Bell companies: Verizon (VZ), SBC (SBC), Qwest (Q), or BellSouth (BLS) . But experts say those firms seem in no hurry to hook up with MCI.

SCOTT CLELAND, CEO, PRECURSOR GROUP: They are finding it relatively easy to steal MCI`s business and second of all, it`s a lot of business risk to assume, and they have a lot of their own business risk to deal with.

WOODS: The once-baby Bells may be more interested in looking back to the old Ma Bell for a deal. AT&T shares the same network architecture and corporate culture as the Bell companies, a stark contrast to MCI.

CLELAND: The problem with MCI and a Bell is that they are countercultures, they were the anti-bell. And architecturally, operationally, nonunion, almost everything about MCI is anti-Bell, so it`s kind of like trying to put together the repelling forces.

WOODS: An AT&T purchase would be more expensive than the $6 billion analysts figure MCI could fetch but any potential suitor may be waiting for that price to fall. LEVINE: Now the psychology for these guys is, well, if I wait a month it could be even cheaper, so why spend $6 billion or $7 billion when it could be $4 or $5?

WOODS: But MCI is probably not looking at another bankruptcy. Although the business is deteriorating, analysts say the firm can cut costs and ride out the storm for the foreseeable future. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/20/04: Commentary: What's Ahead From The Fed?

PAUL KANGAS: Well, tonight`s commentator is also thinking about tomorrow`s meeting of the Federal Reserve`s Open Market Committee, because that`s where she used to work. Here`s Alice Rivlin, economist at the Brookings Institution, former director of the Office of Management and Budget and former vice chair of the Federal Reserve.

ALICE RIVLIN, SR. FELLOW, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: When the Federal Reserve`s open market committee meets tomorrow, I, like most analysts, expect they will raise the Federal funds rate by another quarter point. Markets will yawn. But wait a minute, isn`t the recovery more wobbly than expected? Isn`t inflation almost invisible despite threats that higher gasoline prices might kick it up a notch? Aren`t eight million people still unemployed? So why is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates? Mostly because they want to avoid being in a tight spot a few months from now. If the recovery picks up steam, labor markets tighten and prices start rising, the Fed does not want to be caught with absurdly low interest rates. They don`t want to have to jerk rates up suddenly. Gradual moves are less disruptive. Alternatively, if economic growth should wither unexpectedly, they don`t want to be powerless to help out by cutting rates. Better to raise now and have room to cut later. Then there is the problem of political appearances. Ordinarily the Fed avoids interest rate moves before an election, so they won`t appear to be taking sides. But not moving tomorrow after leaving the impression they were on a measured upward track, would look more political than moving. It might send a signal that they thought the recovery was in serious trouble. The quarter point is the low-profile option. I`m Alice Rivlin.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/20/04: The Foul Side Of Japanese Pro Baseball

SUSIE GHARIB: Professional baseball players in Japan are back at work tonight, after a two-day strike over the weekend. It was the first labor walkout in the 70-year history of the game there, and not much was resolved. Pro baseball in Japan is a mess these days. More and more players are defecting to teams in the United States. And as Lucy Craft reports from Tokyo, that`s just one problem leaving stands emptier than ever.

LUCY CRAFT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Japanese pro baseball hasn`t faced a crisis like this since play was suspended during World War II. All but three of Japan`s 12 pro teams are staggering under debt, a record more than $100 million of red ink, according to local estimates. At least two clubs will merge and there`s even talk of folding Japan`s two leagues into just one. The immediate cause of baseball`s travails is clear. Japan`s best players have gone west, taking the loyalties of Japanese fans with them. Observers say Japan has discovered its own courtly style of baseball is about as exciting as watching chess.

TRANSLATION OF: MASARU IKEI, PROFESSOR EMERITUS, KEIO UNIVERSITY: The loss of major players like Ichiro (ph) and Matsui (ph) is totally ruining Japanese baseball. Japanese fans now can watch Mariners and Yankees games live in the mornings. Japanese fans are getting hooked on major league, bored with Japanese baseball.

CRAFT: But the talent drain has merely highlighted the deep flaws which have long riddled baseball management, Japanese-style. A few teams monopolize almost all broadcasting and merchandise revenues. Owners, who see their teams as mere advertising vehicles for hawking ham or soft drinks, balk at spending on stadiums and player training.

ROBERT WHITING, AUTHOR, "THE MEANING OF ICHIRO": The Yomiuri (ph) Giants take in as much revenue in a year as the New York Yankees, somewhere between $300 and $400 million, whereas the Yankees take that money and feed it back into developing a farm system and to making other improvements on the team, the giants feed that money back to their parent company and they use some of that money to prop up other losing aspects of the corporation.

CRAFT: But some franchise owners, like the Nippon Ham Corporation, a meatpacker, are being forced to shape up by shareholders sick of paying the bills for bankrupt ball clubs. Nippon Ham shipped its unpopular Fighters team cross-country, to the remote, sports-deprived city of Sapporo. The team still loses money, but is finally building a fan base. Critics laud such reforms, but contend the game will become increasingly irrelevant unless professionals, not just suits seconded from the parent company, are delegated to whip franchises into shape.

WHITING: In America you`ve got guys who lie awake at night. Their whole lives is baseball and they lay awake at night trying to think of ways to improve the team and draw fans. In Japan, the guys who run the front office lie awake at night wondering whether they`ll get transferred back to the parent company, not on a career track.

CRAFT: Unlike in the U.S., Japanese baseball teams have never been managed for profit, their rigidly controlled players treated less like bankable athletes than company employees in uniform. But without drastic and far-reaching reforms in the way the game is played and managed here, critics say Japanese baseball is doomed to become a mere farm team for the U.S. major league. Lucy Craft, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Sapporo, Japan.

GHARIB: Sounds like George Steinbrenner should go over to Japan and talk to those guys.

KANGAS: If they try strike two, they may be out.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

9/20/04: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street`s blue chips opened broadly lower, not only on that rise in oil prices and nervousness over tomorrow`s Fed meeting, but also earnings warnings from Colgate and Unilever. At the outset, the Dow fell about 75 points. NASDAQ fell only five. A brokerage upgrade of the chip sector kept the tech stocks firm all day, but the blue chips remained broadly lower.

The Dow Industrial Average closed down 79 1/2 points at 10,204.89. The NASDAQ Composite lost only 2 points ending at 1908.07. Standard & Poor`s 500 fell 6 1/3 points at 1122.20. Over in the bond market, the 10-year note rose 13/32, putting the yield at 4.06 percent.

Big board volume leader was Pfizer (PFE) losing $0.73. Morgan Stanley downgraded it from "overweight" to "equal weight" and cut its price target on the stock from $42 down to $37 a share, citing diminished demand for the company`s new products.

Citigroup (C) off $1.55. That hurt the Dow. Merrill Lynch downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral" after Japan ordered a shutdown of the company`s private bank in Japan last week due to lax customer account monitoring.

NorTel Networks (NT) moved up $0.08.

General Electric (GE) down a penny.

Lucent Technologies (LU) gained $0.02, fifth in big board volume.

Motorola (MOT) up $0.36.

The Colgate-Palmolive (CL) tumbling $6.10. The company cited higher marketing and raw material costs for its downgrade of third quarter earnings. (INAUDIBLE) $0.58 the Street estimate was $0.67. It also said fourth quarter earnings will be about $0.58. That`s $0.10 below the Street estimate. That had a negative impact on the whole consumer goods sector.

Procter & Gamble (PG) losing $1.88.

Similar drop in the English Unilever PLC (UL).

And then the Dutch Unilever N.V. (UN) was down $2.78. Texas Instrument (TXN) moved up $0.65.

Followed by EMC Corp. (EMC) with a $0.27 gain.

And then Altria Group (MO) losing $1.40. As we mentioned, the U.S. tobacco industry goes on trial tomorrow, facing a $280 billion potential judgment against it. This had an impact on the tobacco sector. Reynolds America (RAI) down $2.49.

Fractional losses in Vector Group (VGR) and Loews Corporation (LTR).

Finally we get to a winner and that was Stelmar Shipping (SJH) up $2.60. Fortress investment group is going to acquire this company for $38.55 a share in cash.

On the downside, we see Teleflex (TFX) dropping $4.80. Company cut its full year outlook from about $2.95 a share all the way down to $2.65 and the Street estimate was way up there at $2.97 a share.

Rogers Corporation (ROG) which is in the polymer business, tumbling $5.40. The company cuts its third quarter earnings estimate of $0.59 to $0.67 all the way down to $0.36 to $0.40. The company said that`s due to lower sales of printed circuit board materials.

And then the auto parts manufacturer Superior Industries (SUP) off $1.53. Company sees third quarter earnings at only $0.20. That`s only about half of a $0.39 Wall Street estimate.

Intel (INTC) topped the NASDAQ active list, moving up $0.33.

Followed by Microsoft (MSFT), no change.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) was up $0.14.

eBay (EBAY) fell $1.71.

QUALCOMM (QCOM) $0.41 drop, fifth in dollar volume.

Applied Materials (AMAT) a $0.69 gain.

Google (GOOG) up $1.87. That is a new closing high for Google and it hit as high as $121.60 during the day.

Yahoo! (YHOO) was down $0.20.

OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) up $5.60. Late stage trials of OSI and Genentech`s (DNA) pancreatic cancer drug called Tarceva prolonged the lives of patients when administered with chemotherapy. Genentech stock moved up $1.91 to close at $53.91 incidentally.

And then Research In Motion (RIMM) $1.30 gain. That was tenth in dollar volume on NASDAQ.

Maxim Pharmaceuticals (MAXM) down $2.90, huge percentage drop, almost 49 percent. Phase III trials of its liver cancer drug called Ceplene failed to improve survival rates.

And then Obie Media (OBIE) up $1.96, nearly a 41 percent gain. Lamar Advertising Corp. (LAMR). will acquire for $7 a share in Lamar stock. And those are the stocks in the news tonight.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/20/04: Market Stats

                                      NET    PERCENT
                         CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE

DOW CLOSE             10204.89     -79.57       - .8
HIGH                                        10283.87
LOW                                         10187.19

NASDAQ COMP.           1908.07      -2.02        -.1
HIGH                                         1921.50
LOW                                          1900.24

VOLUME                                       1,197.7
PREVIOUS                                     1,439.8
UP VOLUME                                      464.6
DOWN VOLUME                                    719.3

DOW TRANSPORTS         3242.33     -15.06       - .5
DOW UTILITIES           294.70       -.66       - .2
CLOSING TICK                                    +101

S&P 500                1122.20      -6.35       - .6
S&P 100                 541.93      -3.87       - .7
MIDCAP 400              589.42      -2.68       - .5
REUTERS/CRB             273.97       -.44       - .2

NYSE COMPOSITE         6565.90     -38.10       - .6
VALUE LINE              359.70      -1.53       - .4
RUSSELL 2000            570.74      -2.43       - .4
DJW 5000              10937.09     -56.51       - .5

U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Sept. 15,2009        100 15/32      +9/32     + 3.27

10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014         101 17/32     +14/32     + 4.06

30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031        107 15/32     +21/32     + 4.87

LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX        1769.27     + 8.26


DOW CLOSE             10204.89     -79.57       - .8
ADVANCES                                        1323
DECLINES                                        1949
NEW HIGHS                                        144
NEW LOWS                                          23

                                      NET    PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES    4PM CLOSE     CHANGE     CHANGE
PFE   Pfizer             30.99       -.73       -2.3
C     Citigroup          45.40      -1.55       -3.3
NT    Nortel Networks     3.49       +.08       +2.4
GE    GE                 34.21       -.01        -.0
LU    Lucent Tech         3.29       +.02        +.6
MOT   Motorola           17.37       +.36       +2.1
CL    Colgate Palmolive  48.23      -6.10      -11.2
TXN   Texas Instrument   22.73       +.65       +2.9
EMC   EMC Corp           11.07       +.27       +2.5
MO    Altria Group       47.08      -1.40       -2.9

NASDAQ CLOSE           1908.07     - 2.02       - .1
VOLUME                                       1,569.1
PREVIOUS                                     1,645.0
ADVANCES                                        1271
DECLINES                                        1805

NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC  Intel              20.92       +.33       +1.6
MSFT  Microsoft          27.51      unch.      unch.
CSCO  Cisco Systems      19.30       +.14        +.7
EBAY  eBay               91.39      -1.71       -1.8
QCOM  Qualcomm           38.42       -.41       -1.1
AMAT  Applied Matl       17.59       +.69       +4.1
GOOG  Google            119.36      +1.87       +1.6
YHOO  Yahoo!             33.26       -.20        -.6
OSIP  OSI Pharmaceutical 68.20      +5.60       +9.0
RIMM  Rsch In Motion     74.61      +1.30       +1.8

AMEX CLOSE             1243.93     - 3.85       - .3

INDEX SHARES
DIA   DIAMONDS TRUST    102.15       -.88        -.9
QQQ   NASDAQ 100         35.46       +.02        +.1
SPY   S&P DEP.RECEIPTS  112.47       -.68        -.6

STOCKS IN THE NEWS

SJH   Stelmar Shipping   38.15      +2.60       +7.3
TFX   Teleflex           41.59      -4.80      -10.4
ROG   Rogers Corp        41.25      -5.40      -11.6
SUP   Superior Inds      30.04      -1.53       -4.9
MAXM  Maxim Pharm         3.04      -2.90      -48.8
OBIE  Obie Media          6.75      +1.96      +40.9
PG    Procter & Gamble   54.38      -1.88       -3.3
UL    Unilever Plc       33.22      -1.82       -5.2
UN    Unilever Nv        58.16      -2.78       -4.6
RAI   Reynolds American  69.89      -2.49       -3.4
VGR   Vector Group Ltd   14.93       -.89       -5.6
LTR   Loews Corp         59.08       -.43        -.7