09/28/04:
Oil Prices Continue To Flirt With $50
PAUL KANGAS: $50 a barrel was the new price tag for crude oil today, at least briefly. November crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $50.47 in intra-day trading, the highest level since oil futures began trading there over 20 years ago. Prices backed off a bit at the close, up $0.26 at $49.90. And as Suzanne Pratt reports, oil could be in the headlines again tomorrow.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It was pretty uneventful when it finally happened. Perhaps that`s because $50 a barrel oil has been talked about for so many months and perhaps because we`ve been so close so many times before.
RAYMOND CARBONE, OIL TRADER, PARAMOUNT OPTIONS: The significance is just another price level being breached. It doesn`t carry any more weight than that really. It`s just buying. We`ve gone through $40. We`ve gone through $45, now we`ve gone through $50. It`s really meaningless in the scheme of things. It`s just another price level.
PRATT: Significant or not, it seems that it was a combination of factors that finally pushed the price of crude through the psychological price barrier. First and foremost, traders say rebel threats against Nigerian oil facilities raised concerns about further strains on global supplies. On top of that, traders are worried that tomorrow`s inventory numbers will show another drop in U.S. stockpiles. The number has declined for eight straight weeks, and U.S. supplies are already close to 29-year lows. Oil has been a huge topic on Wall Street and Main Street this year, as crude prices have surged about 70 percent since January. Experts blame the price gain on ballooning demand for oil in China and other fast-growing economies. Add to that tight supplies plus a so-called terror premium, and you get a $50 price tag for crude, not to mention ever higher prices at the gas pump. But will crude prices stay at these levels or move even higher? Some oil experts say there`s no way to know for sure at this time.
JACK AYDIN, OIL ANALYST, KEYBANC: You could make a case that it could go either direction depending if you have further interruption in crude like Nigeria or some other place in the world, I think you could see higher prices. Meantime, if things stabilize, you might a little bit of weakness. But at this point, it`s really anybody`s guess.
PRATT: Oil hitting $50 a barrel prompted Saudi Arabia, OPEC`s largest producer, to say it will boost its official output once again. The OPEC news, which was designed to ease supply concerns, had little effect in the oil markets. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
09/28/04:
Market Outlook With Alfred Goldman Chief Market Strategist A.G. Edwards
PAUL KANGAS:Joining me now to give some perspective on today`s market action and where stocks overall are heading is Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist at AG Edwards in Saint Louis and Al, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT. It`s always a pleasure to have you with us.
AL GOLDMAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, A.G. EDWARDS: Thank you, Paul, it`s my pleasure.
KANGAS: $50 a barrel oil is now a reality and yet the stock market rallies and rallies very nicely. Please explain.
GOLDMAN: The market is always a lot of fun, isn`t it? I think it`s the market`s way of saying that the price of oil is either not going to slow the economy down much or it`s not going to stay at this $50 range for very long. Also it`s saying that the market is selling at a pretty darn attractive overall valuation and it can live with oil at a price much higher than we`d all like to see it.
KANGAS: Well, we`ve been hanging around this 10,000 (AUDIO GAP) do you see the markets going in the next three to six months?
GOLDMAN: We have a couple of things in front of us that are quite positive. First of all, November 3 should give us a solution to who`s going to be living in the White House next year and then we have November, December and January, the three best months of the year. And October believe it or not is just a midrange performer. It`s not the horrible month that most people think. I think the market is going to be moderately higher between now and year end.
KANGAS: How important a role will the presidential outcome be actually and who will be best for the market?
GOLDMAN: I think short-term it will be important. The market would prefer President Bush to be re-elected, one because Wall Street is Republican oriented. They like smaller government and lower taxes. And also it would not create uncertainty of a new president. Longer term, who`s in the White House really doesn`t make a major difference to the overall market, it`s the state of the economy.
KANGAS: What sectors in the stock market do you see doing well over the near term?
GOLDMAN: I like the consumer staples and the health care sectors Paul. The economic recovery will be three years old in November. The growth is going to continue but at a slower pace and I want to be in those groups that are defensive type of growth areas.
KANGAS: We saw lot of action in the basic metals stocks today and even in some of the precious metals. What does that mean to you?
GOLDMAN: I think that was probably end of quarter window dressing. Those are the groups that did best the quarter and I think some windows got dressed with the buying and I think my opinion is that`s going to be short lived, that people are going to look more to the defensive area but it was end of quarter and you frequently see that among the quarter winners.
KANGAS: Looking at the bond market, we saw the yielded on the 10-year Treasury note fall below 4 percent several times recently. That would indicate they`re not expecting much in the way of economic growth, wouldn`t it?
GOLDMAN: I think that the bond market which has amazed most people says we`re not going to have much inflation. The economy is going to grow but I think the main thing that it`s reflecting is that the great bear market that we all lived through left many people realizing that stocks don`t go just up and a lot of money is going after safe, secure bond yields even at very, very historically low interest rate levels, so it`s a new competition for the stock market, means the market from here on, the stock market will go up more gradually because there will be less demand and bonds will attract more money than normally.
KANGAS: All right. What are you telling your customers on the inside so to speak about what to do here?
GOLDMAN: We`re telling all of our customers that we think the economy will continue to grow albeit in a smaller pace, that corporate earnings will expand next year but not at the same rate we`ve seen the last two years. But overall the market is reasonably priced and we`re looking for the market next year, the averages to be in the order of 3 to 5 percent and individual stocks will do better and do worse but it`s going to be a market where one better be selective and diversified.
KANGAS: OK and do a lot of research before you invest?
GOLDMAN: That`s always important.
KANGAS: Al thanks very much for joining us and sharing your insights with us once again.
GOLDMAN: My pleasure Paul.
KANGAS: My guest Al Goldman, chief market strategist with AG Edwards.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
09/28/04:
How Big Names Are Giving Big Bucks To The Presidential Hopefuls
lINDA O`BRYON: With just 35 days to go until the presidential election, a last-minute push is now under way by both the Kerry and Bush campaigns. The fuel for those campaigns is cash and some of that cash is coming in from individual donations. As Stephanie Woods reports, some of those donations are coming in with well-known names attached.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Billionaire financier George Soros is putting his mouth where his money is. Soros is heading out on a 12-city speaking tour and will spend up to $3 million on a personal campaign to defeat President Bush.
GEORGE SOROS, CHAIRMAN, SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT: Why should anybody listen to me? It`s not because I`ve got a lot of money, although that helps to get the message out.
WOODS: Soros` money will be spent on advertising, a mass mailing campaign, and a new web site. He has already donated more than $12 million to liberal so-called 527 groups like moveon.org and America Coming Together. Soros is in big company. Progressive insurance founder Peter Lewis has given $14 million to similar groups. Also in the top 10 list of 527 donors is American Financial Group Chairman Carl Lindner, who gave $1 million to Republican groups.
Individuals dumping big money into politics isn`t new, but with the new campaign finance reform law in effect, individuals can no longer give more than $25,000 directly to the political parties. This has given rise to 527 groups and focused attention on the wealthy individuals that contribute to them.
JOHN CARLISLE, POLICY DIRECTOR, NATIONAL LEGAL & POLICY CENTER: When large donors like Soros give to a group such as moveon.org, it tends to leverage smaller donors. Moveon.org is a large grassroots organization -- 1.7, 1.8 million members -- and is very, very effective at quickly raising large amounts of money from $50 to $100 donors.
WOODS: And although Democratic groups appear to have received the lion`s share of big individual donations, experts say Republicans have been quietly raking in large contributions as well.
KEN GROSS, ELECTION LAW ATTORNEY: In addition to the 527s which have gotten a lot of publicity, there`s also the 501(c) groups, which are other types of non-profits that can get politically involved, c4s in particular, and Republican money has gone to those groups without stop. But it`s not as clear because 501c4s do not have to disclose their donations.
WOODS: In his defense, George Soros says he didn`t invent 527s; he`s using them to level the playing field. Ironically, Soros is a long-time supporter of campaign finance reform, and says once this election is over, it needs to be reformed again. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
09/28/04:
The Road To The White House- The Role of Employment
LINDA O`BRYON: On Thursday, George Bush and John Kerry will meet face to face in Miami for the first of three presidential debates. So this week, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT is taking a look at some of the issues that will be on the top of the agenda for the debates. Tonight, on the road to the White House, we look at the issue of jobs and the role it will play in November`s election. Jeff Yastine reports.
JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The nation`s employment picture remains as confounding as ever. On a statistical basis, it doesn`t look great, but it doesn`t look that bad either. The monthly unemployment rate has been falling steadily since topping out at 6.3 last year. On the other hand, it is still up sharply from the lows of 3.8 percent seen at the start of the decade. Some economists say it reflects the slower-growth nature of the current economic recovery.
ANTONIO VILLAMIL, ECONOMIST, WASHINGTON ECONOMICS GROUP: We have 9/11 attacks on the United States. We have a war on terror. We have had issues with corporate governance issues, so we have gone through a lot in terms of bad news. The positive news are being, in a way, obscured by the bad news, which is that this economy is growing. We have created 1.7 million new jobs since January of this year and the fact that the job market is changing.
YASTINE: And job seekers reflect those changes in contradictory ways. A recent survey by the staffing company Spherion found that more workers believe the economy is weakening and that fewer jobs remain available. But those same workers say they still feel confident about their own abilities to get a new job and most remain confident about the future of the companies for which they currently work.
ROBERT MORGAN, PRESIDENT EMPLOYMENT SOLUTIONS, SPHERION: Employees are saying, well, it`s not like it used to be, so it`s not growing rapidly. It`s still not as strong an economy as it was, but I`m pretty confident in my own ability to be able to go out and find a job because recruiting is starting to pick up. People are starting to hire. It`s slower. It`s a much more steady kind of slower ramp-up than what we`ve seen in the past and it`s not like it was in the 1990s.
YASTINE: And that`s the struggle that both presidential candidates are in when talking about jobs, balancing expectations of a 1990s-style recovery and conflicting with the post-millennium, slow-growth economy. Most economists believe the recovery will continue into next year. If it does, job seekers` attitudes could eventually brighten. That may help whoever holds the oval office after the election, but probably not before. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Miami.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
09/28/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Despite $50 per barrel oil, stocks opened higher thanks to some solid bargain hunting. But enthusiasm was tempered by news of a 1.9-point drop in September consumer confidence when a rise was expected. At midday, the Dow was up 50 points, NASDAQ up five. What appeared to be heavy end of quarter institutional demand for basic metals and materials stocks powered the blue chips to a very strong close today. The Dow Industrial Average ended up 88.86 points at 10,077.40. The NASDAQ Composite was up just about 10 points to 1869.87. Standard & Poor`s 500 gained 6 1/2 points to close at 1110.06.
Treasuries ended mixed. The 10-year note dipped 3/32 lifting the yield to 4.01 percent.
Big board volume leader on 38.7 million shares, Calpine (CPN) down $0.13. The company boosted the convertible portion of its $1.4 billion note offering from $600 million to $725 million.
Lucent Technologies (LU) edged up $0.04.
Pfizer (PFE) $0.46 gain.
EMC Corp. (EMC) was up $0.21. Smith Barney brokerage began covering EMC with a "buy" recommendation and a $13 1/2 a share target for the stock.
Texas Instruments (TXN) down $0.36 a share, fifth in big board volume.
Citigroup (C) rose $0.70. It was the subject of both positive and negative comments in the "heard on the Street" column in today`s "Wall Street Journal." Looks like the positive comments won out today.
General Electric (GE) up $0.19.
Disney (DIS) fell $0.57.
Time Warner (TWX) a dime loss.
And then ExxonMobil (XOM) in that strong energy group, rising $0.57.
Alcoa (AA) the big aluminum, up $1.34. The basic metals stocks as I touched on earlier, very much in demand today, just like their products are, especially from China and this wasn`t the only segment of the basic metals area.
Look at this, Nucor Corporation (NUE), the big steel, up $4.21.
U.S. Steel (X) itself up $2.17.
And the copper stock, Phelps Dodge (PD) did very well, up $4.26.
And the golds did well, Newmont Mining (NEM) rising $1.69. New York December gold up $3 1/2 to $414.20 an ounce.
Caterpillar (CAT) was the best gainer in the Dow, up $2.48. The company sees 2004 revenues rising more than the 25 percent that it predicted earlier and also sees record 2005 profits.
Snap-On Inc. (SNA) down $3.85. Company sees third quarter earnings around $0.37 to $0.40, well below the $0.44 Wall Street estimate, sees full year earnings coming in around $1.40. The Street was expecting $1.80 a share.
And Centene (CNC) up $4.81. A very positive reaction to news the company`s in a pact to acquire two FirstGuard Incorporated Medicaid health plan entities for a price of $93 million.
Pepsi Bottling (PBG) moved up a dime. Third quarter earnings high, $0.73 versus $0.67 last year. That was in line with Wall Street estimates.
DJ Orthopedics (DJO) down $2.87, 86 I should say. The company cut its third quarter revenue guidance from around $64.5 million to $62.5 million, but it did approved a $20 million stock buyback. That might have cushioned the fall a bit.
Cambrex (CBM) down $1.05. The company cut its 2004 earnings guidance from around $1.15 down to $0.90 to $1 a share at best.
And then Jo-Ann Stores (JAS) did well, up $1.75. KeyBanc brokerage upgraded it from "hold" to a "buy."
Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list with an $0.08 gain.
Followed by Intel (INTC) $0.24 drop there.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) edged $0.03 higher.
Followed by eBay (EBAY) which was up $1.51.
And then Google (GOOG) up $8.60. That is a new closing high for Google stock. Now CS First Boston brokerage began covering it with an "overweight" rating and sees the stock going as high as $145 a share. And JPMorgan also came out today with an "overweight" rating on Google.
Look at this gain, AtheroGenics (AGIX) up $14.84 and that`s about 64 percent rise. The company said mid-stage trials of its AGI 1067 drug cut the plaque in coronary arteries by 3 to 4 percent. Some analysts see this stock going as high as $50 to $70 a share.
Yahoo! (YHOO) was up $0.98.
Research In Motion (RIMM) up $1.86.
And then Applied Materials (AMAT) a loss of $0.20.
Followed by Oracle (ORCL) which was down $0.17 a share, tenth in volume.
And those are the stocks in the news tonight
09/28/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10077.40 +88.86 + .9
HIGH 10099.52
LOW 9977.92
NASDAQ COMP. 1869.87 +9.99 +.5
HIGH 1873.86
LOW 1852.59
VOLUME 1,397.2
PREVIOUS 1,263.3
UP VOLUME 958.5
DOWN VOLUME 418.1
DOW TRANSPORTS 3208.58 +31.23 + 1.0
DOW UTILITIES 295.57 +1.68 + .6
CLOSING TICK +151
S&P 500 1110.06 +6.54 + .6
S&P 100 534.19 +3.17 + .6
MIDCAP 400 586.77 +4.01 + .7
REUTERS/CRB 281.73 +.46 + .2
NYSE COMPOSITE 6543.39 +47.02 + .7
VALUE LINE 355.13 +2.74 + .8
RUSSELL 2000 565.66 +7.30 + 1.3
DJW 5000 10833.42 +68.62 + .6
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Sept. 15,2009 100 16/32 +1/32 + 3.27
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 102 -3/32 + 4.01
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 108 20/32 -13/32 + 4.80
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1781.35 -4.57
DOW CLOSE 10077.40 +88.86 + .9
ADVANCES 2251
DECLINES 1041
NEW HIGHS 191
NEW LOWS 51
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
CPN Calpine 3.01 -.13 -4.1
LU Lucent Tech 3.15 +.04 +1.3
PFE Pfizer 30.08 +.46 +1.6
EMC EMC Corp 11.06 +.21 +1.9
TXN Texas Instrument 20.78 -.36 -1.7
C Citigroup 44.31 +.70 +1.6
GE GE 33.31 +.19 +.6
DIS Disney 22.60 -.57 -2.5
TWX Time Warner 16.23 -.10 -.6
XOM Exxon Mobil 48.53 +.57 +1.2
NASDAQ CLOSE 1869.87 + 9.99 + .5
VOLUME 1,550.9
PREVIOUS 1,325.1
ADVANCES 1908
DECLINES 1176
NASDAQ ACTIVES
MSFT Microsoft 27.27 +.08 +.3
INTC Intel 19.68 -.24 -1.2
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.07 +.03 +.2
EBAY eBay 90.24 +1.51 +1.7
GOOG Google 126.86 +8.60 +7.3
AGIX AtheroGenics 38.00 +14.84 +64.1
YHOO Yahoo! 32.80 +.98 +3.1
RIMM Rsch In Motion 76.98 +1.86 +2.5
AMAT Applied Matl 16.21 -.20 -1.2
ORCL Oracle 11.36 +.17 +1.5
AMEX CLOSE 1270.02 + 6.88 + .5
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 100.89 +.76 +.8
QQQ NASDAQ 100 34.57 +.09 +.3
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 111.28 +.53 +.5
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
AA Alcoa 32.70 +1.34 +4.3
NUE Nucor 90.50 +4.21 +4.9
X US Steel 37.75 +2.17 +6.1
PD Phelps Dodge 93.60 +4.26 +4.8
NEM Newmont Mining 44.29 +1.69 +4.0
CAT Caterpillar 76.90 +2.48 +3.3
SNA Snap-On 27.83 -3.85 -12.2
CNC Centene 43.51 +4.81 +12.4
PBG Pepsi Bottling 26.68 +.10 +.4
DJO DJ Orthopedics 17.05 -2.86 -14.4
CBM Cambrex 21.25 -1.05 -4.7
JAS Jo-Ann Stores 28.00 +1.75 +6.7
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