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Program: Thursday, September 30, 2004

The Market Falls Ill After Merck Pulls Vioxx
The Big Bush/Kerry Face-Off
FPL Works To Get Hurricane Ravaged Florida Plugged Back In
S&P Chief Market Analyst Paul Cherney's Wall Street Winners & Losers
Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News

Market Stats

09/30/04: The Market Falls Ill After Merck Pulls Vioxx

LINDA O'BRYON: . It's a prescription for problems at Merck. Today the drug giant pulled one of its best selling products, Vioxx, off the market worldwide after a new study showed it may cause heart attacks or strokes. The news sent shock waves through Merck's stock price and by day's end the company had lost almost $27 billion worth of its market value. Scott Gurvey reports.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The recall affects more than two million people currently taking the arthritis drug Vioxx worldwide. Merck said it received word of the study last week and after analyzing the data decided that taking Vioxx off the market was the proper response.

DR. PETER KIM, PRESIDENT, MERCK RESEARCH LABS: When we learned of these results last Thursday evening, we moved quickly to answer the question of what is in the best interest of patients. We believe that our decision reflects Merck's commitment to patient safety.

GURVEY: Vioxx is a type of drug known as a Cox two inhibitor. These drugs are designed to reduce inflammation. Pfizer's Celebrex is in the same class. But the Merck drug has for several years been the subject of concern over possible links to heart problems. Hundreds of lawsuits are already pending. Last year, Vioxx contributed $2.5 billion in annual sales to Merck's revenue stream. The company estimates the recall will cut earnings by $0.50 to $0.60 a share.

ROBERT HAZLETT, PHARMACEUTICAL ANALYST, SUNTRUST ROBINSON HUMPHREY: The big question as investors look forward, I think, is what impact does it have on the company's follow on drug Arcoxia . That drug is launched and is growing in several countries overseas, and we're expecting a decision shortly in the states and we're concerned about that, that's for sure.

GURVEY: Merck shares lost more than 25 percent of their value in today's trading. Shares of rival Pfizer gained ground. Still, in an extended interview, Merck Chairman Ray Gilmartin said the decision was not difficult once he saw the study.

RAY GILMARTIN, CHAIRMAN AND CEO, MERCK: It was totally unexpected. But my instinctive reaction when Doctor Peter Kim called me to inform me of this was to say to him immediately, Peter, we're going to make this decision based on patient safety.

GURVEY: What's happens just now technically when you recall a drug like this?

GILMARTIN: First of all you conduct an extensive communications campaign to inform patients and physicians worldwide in this case that we are voluntarily withdrawing the drug and advising people to go to their physician to talk about discontinuing the drug and to seek alternative therapies. The other implications are the fact that we take back inventory out of the field. We have inventory of our own that now has to be written off. We have the immediate impact of the loss of sales which for just this quarter alone would be ... next quarter rather would be $700- $750 million and then immediately, we start thinking through beyond that. What are the ramifications for the organization?

GURVEY: Does this do you think change strategy going forward?

GILMARTIN: Not in any way whatsoever. I mean this is an event that you hope never happens. Last time this happened was - to Merck, was around 1982 and not with the same level of significance but we're in a business that's a long-run business. It takes 10 or 15 years to develop a drug. We have a strengthening pipeline. We've been very successful external licensing relationships including late stage drugs as well and we'll continue to invest behind our research and continue those licensing activities. So we're a very strong company financially. We were before this decision. We're strong financially after this decision.

GURVEY: You talked about some of the financial implications that will be going forward. Do you have anything to note at this point about the potential legal ramifications in this?

GILMARTIN: No. That would be purely speculative. I mean clearly each case has its own merits. We real feel very strongly about the merits of our case and we're going to defend all these cases vigorously.

GURVEY: Very good, thank you.

GILMARTIN: You're welcome.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/30/04: The Big Bush/Kerry Face-Off

LINDA O`BRYON: The nation's foreign policy moves to the front burner tonight, as President George Bush and Democratic candidate John Kerry face off in their first debate. Preparations have been wrapped up at the convocation center at the University of Miami, site of the event. Bush and Kerry will face each other and the nation for 90 minutes in a session focusing on foreign policy and national security. Two additional debates are scheduled before the November election: one to discuss economic policy, one as a town hall meeting.

PAUL KANGAS: Analysts say tonight's debate is an opportunity for John Kerry to change the dynamics of the race, since President Bush has opened up a significant lead in several key states. One of those states is Florida. As we continue along the road to the White House tonight, Darren Gersh asks Florida voters whether economics or Iraq will be the deciding factor in this election.

DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: If you want to find the voters who will decide the presidential election, your best bet is to head here to Florida's interstate-4. This ribbon of highway threads through Florida's midsection, connecting Daytona Beach, Orlando and Tampa. The communities along the I-4 corridor are the richest vein of swing voters in this swing state, and here there's really one issue on most minds.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The war in Iraq.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Homeland security. Defense.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Iraq war is probably the largest issue.

GERSH: For 30 years, presidential politics has come down to "it's the economy stupid." but this year, terrorism, Iraq and national security concerns dominate. Republican Christina Graeber says Iraq is the reason she's undecided about the president.

CHRISTINE GRAEBER, UNDECIDED VOTER: I just don't feel safer at all. I feel like he did the wrong thing and Iraq had nothing to do with terrorists.

GERSH: But John Kerry hasn't passed her leadership test.

GRAEBER: He doesn't seem strong enough for me, yet maybe he will come around.

GERSH: Pollster Andy Kohut says worries about war, terrorism, and national security make this a very different kind of election.

ANDREW KOHUT, DIRECTOR, PEW RESEARCH CENTER: It is not just a matter of who is going to be the best manager of the American economy. It is who is going to be the best leader of a country that feels itself under threat.

GERSH: That means undecided voters watching tonight's debate will be trying to decide who would be the better leader in a crisis.

KOHUT: Then they are going to look at the two presidential candidates and say with whom do I feel safer? That is very different than looking at the two presidential candidates and saying well, who is going to be better for me and my pocketbook?

GERSH: It is also an election where traditional voting patterns are reversed. So-called security moms are now even more hawkish than men.

DEBBIE MARTINEZ, BUSH SUPPORTER: If we don't start now in some way trying to protect the country by sending our troops, when are we going to do it? After we get attacked again?

GERSH: The wild card in this election will be how security is defined. At this bridge game in the city of Weston, north of Miami, Kamala Anandam wants what she calls a safer environment for her children.

KAMALA ANANDAM, KERRY SUPPORTER: You know, economically, security wise, education, environment all of them impact on whether we are going to give them a better country than we came into.

GERSH: Kerry will try to broaden the definition of security to include health care and the economy where polls give him the edge. But he starts out in the hole when it comes to fighting terrorism and Iraq, where voters give the edge to the president. That's a perception Kerry needs to change along the I-4 corridor tonight.

ROSEMARY BAPTISTE, UNDECIDED VOTER: If he says he is going to have a better approach on the war, then he'll have my vote. But if he don't, then still undecided.

GERSH: For many, it is an agonizing choice. Gloria Diaz's husband is in the military. They're both undecided.

GLORIA DIAZ, UNDECIDED VOTER: I guess we don't know how to pick which one of the two are the worst.

GERSH: Watching the debate, undecided voters will have their best chance to figure out who they'll vote for or against. As they see both candidates standing side by side, voters will be weighing issues of war and peace while keeping prosperity in mind. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Miami.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/30/04: FPL Works To Get Hurricane Ravaged Florida Plugged Back In


LINDA O'BRYON: It has been an historic and horrible hurricane season for Florida. First Charley, then Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. Four storms in six weeks have made life miserable for many residents and visitors and created huge challenges for the state's utilities. This week, we went along with an FP&L repair crew, working to get the lights back on again. Millions of people were left in the dark, some waiting weeks to get their power back. Florida's treasure coast bore the full brunt of two of the storms. Florida Power and Light had just restored electricity to all its customers across the state when hurricane Jeanne plowed through. The utility says after all these storms, it must now rebuild much of the infrastructure that took 80 years to build.

GEISHA WILLIAMS, VP ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION, FPL: Charley and now also Jeanne is a bit of a rebuild to the areas that it impacted because the poles are down, they're broken. So you in essence have to put in new poles, new wires, new transformers. It's like starting from scratch.

O'BRYON: These FPL crews in Palm Beach County are restoring power to a Coast Guard station and about 500 residents nearby. This team is part of 7,000 FPL linemen fanned out across several counties. More than 4,000 out of state workers have also arrived to help, on loan from as far away as California. Foreman Terry Grimes says 16 hour days are the norm now. He hasn't seen home since the end of August.

TERRY GRIMES, FOREMAN, FPL: When Charley hit over Port Charlotte, we went the next day. We left. We were over there for two weeks, came back home, had a day off to get ready for Frances. Frances came, went right back to work here for two weeks and then Jeanne came.

O'BRYON: Carlos Jaramillo is a small business owner. He runs the Sea Treasures souvenir shop along the usually busy U.S.-1. Hurricane Frances left his store in the dark for seven days. Now after Jeanne, it's five days and counting.

CARLOS JARAMILLO, BUSINESS OWNER: We have a broken window, that's about it and the sign came down. So we're lucky to be here.

O'BRYON: Neighboring Martin County thinks it will cost $50 million to repair miles of damaged traffic lights in its area. And the wait could be lengthy because of a shortage of parts. And it's not alone. Sources at one of the major power companies told us supplies of poles, transformers and generators are limited. No one planned on this many hurricanes so close together. Manufacturers, many of them out of state, have the parts, but getting them delivered quickly is the challenge. The financial impact is a challenge as well. On Tuesday, FPL warned third quarter earnings would be $0.08 to $0.10 lower than previously expected due to hurricanes Charley and Frances.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/30/04: S&P Chief Market Analyst Paul Cherney's Wall Street Winners & Losers

PAUL KANGAS: It's the last day of the quarter and that means it's time to wrap up the winners and losers on Wall Street. Joining me now is Paul Cherney, Standard and Poor's chief market strategist. Paul, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

PAUL CHERNEY, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, STANDARD & POOR'S: Hi Paul, nice to be here.

KANGAS: It wasn't a great third quarter, was it? Give us your thoughts on what happened overall.

CHERNEY: The higher oil prices really weighed on investor sentiment on concerns that this slow patch that we're in might be extended and it might choke off the economic recovery. That was a big problem. And, also, we were getting guidance lower from a lot of tech companies.

KANGAS: All right let's take a look at the charts to see how the major indexes did over the last three months. We see the Dow down 3.4 percent.

CHERNEY: It was a mixed performance among the major indexes.

KANGAS: Today's drop in Merck didn't help, did it?

CHERNEY: No. Not for the Dow certainly.

KANGAS: The S&P, the more broadly based index, down 2.3 and NASDAQ was the worst.

CHERNEY: Yes, the tech company's warning hasn't been a healthy environment for those stocks.

KANGAS: OK. Let's look at the best performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the top three and we see led by Home Depot.

CHERNEY: The company delivered better than expected second quarter earnings and raised guidance for the year. I think the hurricanes in Florida helped to focus buyers' attention on the demand for ply wood, too.

KANGAS: And no real question why ExxonMobil is up?

CHERNEY: Well, the higher prices in oil just brought the buyers in.

KANGAS: And why Verizon? It's a low-priced issue, but pretty good percent gain.

CHERNEY: In July they reported Q2 profit rose five fold due to a surge in their wireless sales. It's the biggest revenue gain since 2001.

KANGAS: OK, the dogs of the Dow, the three worst performers. Let's have a look at those, led by well, Merck, as you might imagine.

CHERNEY: Well, we know about Merck because of today's recall.

KANGAS: Intel has had a rough time of it too.

CHERNEY: They lowered their profit outlook in July due to an inventory problem.

KANGAS: And Coca-Cola, was it management problems or what?

CHERNEY: I think it's pricing problems. Their sales growth globally, their volume grew only 1 percent, well short of the 5 percent company goal.

KANGAS: OK, let's now look over at the Standard & Poor's 500 and we see two big winners, Symantec topped them.

CHERNEY: It's a network security software and they beat Q2 earnings estimates and then guided higher for Q3.

KANGAS: And Black and Decker had about the same percentage gain.

CHERNEY: Another situation where they're bringing in the money. They beat earnings estimates and looks good going forward.

KANGAS: And the worst performers in the Standard & Poor's 500 Winn Dixie, the big Florida grocery chain way down.

CHERNEY: It's been struggling for quarters. Then in August, August 19th reported a sharp decline in earnings and the price dropped about 40 percent over the next couple of weeks.

KANGAS: And of course we know the problems at Delta.

CHERNEY: The concerns about bankruptcy as the company is desperately trying to trim costs.

KANGAS: Let's look over to NASDAQ at some big winners there, led by Sandisk.

CHERNEY: The company makes high capacity, high speed, flash memory cards and on July 15th, reported better than expected earnings.

KANGAS: And Symantec did very nicely.

CHERNEY: Yes, they beat Q2 earnings estimates and guided higher.

KANGAS: And on the downside for NASDAQ, the two big losers, Synopsys.

CHERNEY: Synopsys makes software to design computer chips and missed its income estimates. Intel is their biggest customer and Intel has inventory problems.

KANGAS: And Broadcom, that's a poor performance there.

CHERNEY: Semiconductors - they make semiconductors that address broadband needs and brokerage downgrades on concerns that their orders will be slowing.

KANGAS: OK, very interesting information. Paul, we just have about 40 seconds, your thoughts heading into the fourth quarter?

CHERNEY: Well, if you look at fourth quarters during presidential elections years since 1960 and we've had 11, 10 of them have seen the S&P 500 close higher at the end of the quarter. The average gain is not that great, it's about 3.1 percent. For today's market, that would be the equivalent of 1149. A range of prices that has occurred, an average range of prices would be a low for the quarter of about 1081 and a high for the quarter of around 1178 finishing around 11.50.

KANGAS: So there is some nice upside?

CHERNEY: Yes there is upside historically.

KANGAS: Paul, thanks very much for joining us, my guest Paul Cherney of Standard & Poor's.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

09/30/04: Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"

PAUL KANGAS: That news on Merck sent its stock tumbling over $12 a share early on, accounting for all of an 80 point mid-morning loss in the Dow industrial average. But tech stocks edged higher on some brokerage upgrades, so the NASDAQ index was a few points higher at mid-morning. The market showed some improvement on good earnings from PepsiCo this afternoon, but Merck remained a major drag. The Dow Industrial Average came in with a loss of nearly 56 points at 10,080.27. The NASDAQ Composite actually rose 2.90, ending at 1896.84.

Standard & Poor's 500 lost ¼ of a point to 1114.58. Treasuries ended lower, the 10-year note fell 9/32 lifting the yield to 4.12 percent. It was no surprise that Merck (MRK) topped the active list on the big board, trading nearly 94 million shares and the stock tumbling just over 12 points. That's a 26.8 percent drop, the low of the day $32.65 and it hurt the Dow Industrial Average by 88 points. Merck also said it's going to cut its earnings by $0.50 to $0.60 a share this year.

Pfizer (PFE), which moved up $0.42, its Celebrex arthritis drug could benefit from the Vioxx problem as you heard.

Lucent Technologies (LU) $0.01 loss.

$0.13 gain in General Electric (GE).

Citigroup (C) fell $0.58 a share. It was fifth in volume.

Qwest Communications (Q) up $0.15.

Fannie Mae (FNM) down $2.85. Both Dow Jones news service and Reuters reported the Department of Justice has opened a criminal probe into the company's accounting. Standard & Poor's repeated an "avoid" recommendation on Fannie Mae.

EMC Corp. (EMC) up $0.19.

Texas Instrument (TXN) a $0.12 loss.

Tenth in volume was Calpine (CPN) moving up $0.02.

PepsiCo (PEP) gained $0.55, traded as high as $49.53 today after reporting a 35 percent jump in third quarter earnings to $0.79, versus $0.58 last year, but $0.13 of that $0.79 was due to tax benefits. But even taking that away, $0.66 a share was still a penny better than the Wall Street estimate.

Olin Corporation (OLN) stock up $1.22. Merrill Lynch upgraded it from "neutral" to "buy" because of rebounding caustic soda prices, good for the bottom line there.

Fresh Del Monte Produce (FDP) down $1.75. The company cut this year's earnings estimate from around $2.60 a share to $2.10 because of weak banana pricing and higher transportation costs.

Then a good gainer, Cantel Medical Corp. (CMN) rising $1.76. Fourth quarter earnings comfortably higher, $0.31 versus $0.21 last year. Sales up 34 percent. Company says it'll earn $1.05 for the full year, well up from $0.80 a year ago.

Talbots (TLB) the women's clothing retailer down $2.51. The company cut its third quarter earnings from its previous estimate of $0.66 to only $0.40 to $0.50 per share. Piper Jaffray brokerage downgraded it from "outperform" to just "market perform."

AnnTaylor Stores (ANN) losing $1.18. Banc of America Securities downgraded it from "buy" to just a "neutral" rating.

However Guess? (GES) moved up $0.73. Its September same store sales up a very respectable 13.6 percent.

Back on the downside was the Gap (GPS), $0.29 loss. First Albany brokerage downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral."

And then we see SYNNEX (SNX) up $1.60. This company builds information technology systems and its third quarter earnings, very nicely higher, $0.38 versus $0.32 a year ago, $0.04 above the Street estimate. Revenues up 29 percent over last year.

Microsoft (MSFT) topped the active list with a $0.07 gain.

Followed by Intel (INTC) losing a penny.

eBay (EBAY) down $0.22.

Google (GOOG) a little profit taking there, off $1.48.

Yahoo! (YHOO) dropped $0.09, fifth in dollar volume.

Research In Motion (RIMM) fell $0.36.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.21 drop.

QUALCOMM (QCOM) managed to gain $0.09.

Oracle (ORCL) up $0.15 or down $0.15.

And Amgen (AMGN) fell $1.18.

Nastech Pharmaceutical (NSTK) up $1.89. This company is developing a nasal spray to treat obesity and there's speculation Merck may be shopping for new products like this to fill the Vioxx void.

Then we see eResearch Technology (ERES) down $1 - or $3.66. The Advest brokerage downgraded it from "strong buy" to just a "buy."

And finally Urologix (ULGX) down $2.91, huge percentage drop, 31 ½ percent. The company cut its first quarter revenue guidance from around $7 million down to $6 million.

And those are the stocks in the news tonight.



09/30/04: Market Stats


                                      NET    PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE DOW CLOSE 10080.27 -55.97 - .6 HIGH 10142.94 LOW 10038.90 NASDAQ COMP. 1896.84 +2.90 +.2 HIGH 1902.25 LOW 1887.68 VOLUME 1,754.2 PREVIOUS 1,406.9 UP VOLUME 1,056.9 DOWN VOLUME 667.3 DOW TRANSPORTS 3243.51 +3.92 + .1 DOW UTILITIES 295.33 +.85 + .3 CLOSING TICK +935 S&P 500 1114.58 -.22 - .0 S&P 100 534.86 -1.70 - .3 MIDCAP 400 593.20 +4.18 + .7 REUTERS/CRB 284.98 +.58 + .2 NYSE COMPOSITE 6570.25 +9.57 + .2 VALUE LINE 359.10 +1.26 + .4 RUSSELL 2000 572.94 +1.87 + .3 DJW 5000 10895.48 +9.59 + .1 U.S. TREASURIES 5-YEAR NOTE 3.375% Sept. 15,2009 100 1/32 -2/32 + 3.37 10-YEAR NOTE 4.25% Aug. 15,2014 101 -9/32 + 4.13 30-YEAR NOTE 5.375% Feb. 15, 2031 107 2/32 -15/32 + 4.90 LEHMAN BROS. LONG BOND INDEX 1764.20 -2.93 DOW CLOSE 10080.27 -55.97 - .6 ADVANCES 1981 DECLINES 1321 NEW HIGHS 205 NEW LOWS 24 NET PERCENT NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE MRK Merck & Co 33.00 -12.07 -26.8 PFE Pfizer 30.60 +.42 +1.4 LU Lucent Tech 3.17 -.01 -.3 GE GE 33.58 +.13 +.4 C Citigroup 44.12 -.58 -1.3 Q Qwest Comms 3.33 +.15 +4.7 FNM Fannie Mae 63.40 -2.85 -4.3 EMC EMC Corp 11.54 +.19 +1.7 TXN Texas Instrument 21.28 -.12 -.6 CPN Calpine 2.90 +.02 +.7 NASDAQ CLOSE 1896.84 + 2.90 + .2 VOLUME 1,679.8 PREVIOUS 1,652.1 ADVANCES 1738 DECLINES 1332 NASDAQ ACTIVES MSFT Microsoft 27.65 +.07 +.3 INTC Intel 20.06 -.01 -.1 EBAY eBay 91.94 -.22 -.2 GOOG Google 129.60 -1.48 -1.1 YHOO Yahoo! 33.91 -.09 -.3 RIMM Rsch In Motion 76.34 -.36 -.5 CSCO Cisco Systems 18.10 -.21 -1.2 QCOM Qualcomm 39.04 +.09 +.2 ORCL Oracle 11.28 -.15 -1.3 AMGN Amgen 56.81 -1.18 -2.0 AMEX CLOSE 1271.83 + 7.45 + .6 INDEX SHARES DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 100.89 -.58 -.6 QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.15 +.04 +.1 SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 111.76 -.08 -.1 STOCKS IN THE NEWS PEP PepsiCo 48.65 +.55 +1.1 OLN Olin 20.00 +1.22 +6.5 FDP Fresh Del Monte 24.91 -1.75 -6.6 CMN Cantel Medical 24.00 +1.76 +7.9 TLB The Talbots 24.79 -2.51 -9.2 ANN AnnTaylor Store 23.40 -1.18 -4.8 GES Guess 17.81 +.73 +4.3 GPS Gap Inc 18.70 -.29 -1.5 SNX Synnex Corp 17.70 +1.60 +9.9 NSTK Nastech Pharm 14.29 +1.89 +15.2 ERES eResearch Tech 13.33 -3.66 -21.5 ULGX Urologix 6.32 -2.91 -31.5

 

 

 

 

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