10/01/04:
PeopleSoft Fires Chief Executive Craig Conway
SUSIE GHARIB: A big shakeup today at PeopleSoft, chief executive Craig Conway was fired after the software company`s board cited a quote, loss of confidence end quote, in his ability to lead. Conway strongly opposed a $7.7 billion hostile takeover bid by Oracle, which the two companies have been fighting over for more than a year. He had been CEO since 1999 and will be replaced in that role by Chairman David Duffield. PeopleSoft stock soared 15 percent today on speculation that Conway`s departure clears the way for the company to accept Oracle`s offer. But analysts say there are other factors behind Conway`s ouster.
CHARLES DI BONA, SANFORD C. BERNSTEIN: I think that this loss of confidence that the board had in him had a lot more to do with the operations of the company, certainly the Oracle deal had an impact, but frankly they`ve been struggling here and the merger with JD Edwards, which we`ve had a problem with since the get go is really having trouble paying off.
GHARIB: Bernstein`s parent, Alliance Capital (AC), owns more than 1 percent of PeopleSoft stock. Now despite today`s development, PeopleSoft and Oracle will square off Monday in a Delaware court. At issue: a "poison pill" PeopleSoft put into place to block Oracle`s bid. The Justice Department now says it will not block that merger despite previously describing it as "anti-competitive."
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/01/04:
The Outlook For Stocks
PAUL KANGAS: That big move in PeopleSoft shares helped the NASDAQ post its biggest daily increase in six months today, up 45 points, or almost 2.5 percent. The Dow industrials rose 112 points. Suzanne Pratt looks at the outlook for stocks in the last quarter of the year.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It looks like the fourth and final quarter of 2004 is off to a pretty decent start on Wall Street. Not only did stocks rally today in the face of higher oil prices and higher interest rates, but volume was also fairly strong. The big question, however, is whether today`s investor enthusiasm can continue for the next three months, enough so that the major stock market indexes finish 2004 in positive territory. Yesterday, the Dow and the NASDAQ closed out the third quarter with only modest year- to-date losses, while the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged. As a result, many experts say having all of the major indexes end 2004 with gains is definitely doable.
STUART SCHWEITZER, STRATEGIST, J.P. MORGAN INVESTMENT MGMT.: I expect the market to move higher but not in a straight line. I think that people are going to remain nervous about the economy. Lately, the news on the economy has been less bad than people thought. The economy looks a little more solid than people feared it might. But, the jury is still out.
PRATT: For others, it`s still a close call whether 2004 will ultimately be an up year for stocks. They say there are too many unknowns about the health of the U.S. economy and too many doubts about fourth quarter corporate profits. Still, others say, at least the political picture will get clearer in the coming weeks, which should help investors.
GAIL DUDACK, SUNGARD INSTITUTIONAL BROKERAGE: I think, though, within the next couple of weeks, we`re going to have more debates. I think we will see a more defining issue with the election. That will help the stock market because it will help the markets envision what the economy will be like in 2005.
PRATT: As for 2005, it should come as no surprise that most stock market strategists are optimistic. Many believe the 2004 holiday shopping season will be better than people think, and that they say should give stocks a nice boost in January. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/01/04:
Commodity Consumption Rises Rapidly
PAUL KANGAS: Oil isn`t the only commodity with a higher price tag these days. After a quarter century lull, prices are up across the board for everything from livestock to sugar to coffee and experts say it looks like that trend will continue. As Diane Eastabrook reports, those high prices are putting commodities back in the portfolios of many investors.
DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Strong global demand, hurricanes and low carbohydrate diets have collided to form a perfect storm for high commodity prices. And many economists believe they could climb even higher.
CARL TANNENBAUM, CHIEF ECONOMIST, LASALLE BANK CORP.: Those prices are rising pretty rapidly, and the risk is that they`ll filter through the system to the prices of other products and general inflation. I think that`s one of the reasons why the Fed decided to abandon its abnormally low interest rate policy and try and move towards normalcy.
EASTABROOK: The Commodity Research Bureau`s futures price index hit its highest level in two decades early last spring, retreated during the summer, then started moving towards another high last month. The biggest upward price moves have been in livestock, in sugar, and particularly in energy. While political turmoil in oil producing nations has helped vault crude prices to nearly $50 a barrel, analysts say strong demand still remains the biggest price driver. So, they think oil prices will remain high even if political unrest dissipates.
SHERAZ MIAN, ENERGY ANALYST, ZACKS INVESTMENT RESEARCH: We believe that prices for the remainder of the year should at least be in the mid $40s level, should stay at that level for approximately the first half of `05 before starting to ease somewhat.
EASTABROOK: High prices are re-igniting investor interest in commodities. Peregrine Financial Group says many of its customers are favoring commodities over some financial futures. That is something the trading firm`s chairman and CEO hasn`t seen since the late 1970s. Russell Wasendorf says because commodity prices sank so low in the 1990s, they have a lot of upside potential.
RUSSELL WASENDORF, CHMN. & CEO, PEREGRINE FINANCIAL GROUP: In real dollar values based on how much people have earned and are earning and how much inflation has occurred in other sectors, commodity prices have a great deal of movement higher before they get to the point where there`s going to be any resistance at all.
EASTABROOK: Some experts are confident investors will continue to pour money into commodities for several more quarters and that could also keep commodity prices climbing. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Chicago.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/01/04:
"Road To The White House"-The Return To The Campaign Trail
SUSIE GHARIB: President Bush and challenger John Kerry were back on the campaign trail today, trading verbal attacks over Iraq after last night`s debate. Kerry went into the encounter as the underdog needing a boost to shore up his campaign and polls today showed most voters think he got the better of the president in last night`s encounter. As our coverage of "the road to the White House" continues, Darren Gersh reports on his experience of the debate, watching it with voters in a south Florida neighborhood.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Lazy Lake, Florida, population 38, is just the kind of place Senator John Kerry needed to win over last night. Many of the voters here are registered as independents or say they are undecided. We asked a group of Lazy Lake residents to come together to watch the debate.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The only thing consistent about my opponent`s position is that he`s been inconsistent.
SEN. JOHN KERRY (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This president has made, I regret to say, a colossal error of judgment.
GERSH: When pushed, most of the voters in this room were leaning, barely, towards Kerry, but they had been put off by his image as a flip-flopper. In the debate, Kerry seemed more presidential to Joe McCallion, a registered Republican.
JOE MCCALLION, REGISTERED REPUBLICAN: He was assured of himself and I think that came through. Bush seemed very unprepared. I don`t know why, I just had that feeling that he stammered and he kept saying the same things over and over and over again.
GERSH: Mayor Chris Aldinger, a Democrat, says he`s seen Kerry dance around issues over the last few weeks.
MAYOR CHRIS ALDINGER, LAZY LAKE, FL.: Now, tonight, he seemed to get down to the point.
GERSH: Lyn McFarland, a registered independent, declared Kerry the better politician last night, but McFarland still has doubts about whether Kerry can better handle the war in Iraq.
LYN MCFARLAND, REGISTERED INDEPENDENT: I think he has at least the idea of a different plan, you know. I`m not convinced that he can pull it off. And that`s my big concern with Kerry is that I am not convinced that he can do what he wants to do, and so it`s like when you talk about this election for me it`s very much the lesser of the evils.
GERSH: Polls confirm the Lazy Lake view, declaring Kerry the winner last night. Political analysts agree the Democratic challenger injected energy into what was an uncertain campaign. But it was not a decisive moment.
ANDREW LAPERRIERE, POLITICAL ANALYST, ISI GROUP: I don`t think he changed the dynamic of the race, which, right now, Bush has a lead, and I don`t think that Kerry has dealt some kind of major blow to President Bush. So I think he`s still the underdog at this point.
GERSH: Both Senator Kerry and the president will have another chance to move the needle on this election when the debates shift to economics and domestic issues.
ALDINGER: How they`re going to keep the economy up and not let it fall, because I think we are heading for a fall.
GERSH: For now, Kerry has firmed up his position with these voters, but they`re waiting for the next debates.
ALDINGER: He`s a little bit more in the picture now than he was before, but the next two, I want to see how it comes off there. I mean, he might blow the next one. I don`t know.
GERSH: So while many voters here were impressed by Kerry, he hasn`t won their vote yet. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Lazy Lake, Florida.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/01/04:
"Market Monitor"-John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is John Dorfman, president of Dorfman Investments based in Newton, Massachusetts, and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT John.
JOHN DORFMAN, PRESIDENT, DORFMAN INVESTMENTS: Thank you so much, Paul.
KANGAS: What do you think the major factors were behind today`s big rally on Wall Street?
DORFMAN: I think one factor that hasn`t been talked about much was the debate last night. I think both presidential candidates acquitted themselves pretty decently and I think Americans looked at that and said the other guy is not so bad, maybe I could live with that.
KANGAS: OK. So no matter who gets in there, it`s not going to be that bad.
DORFMAN: Yeah, basically.
KANGAS: How about a lot of fresh money coming in at the start of the fourth quarter.
DORFMAN: I think so. Pension funds and other institutional investors probably put some money to work today.
KANGAS: How do you think that corporate earnings are shaping up here? First of all we`re going to get a lot of third quarter reports next week and then how about the fourth quarter?
DORFMAN: I think third and fourth earnings will both look strong. I think the economy is still in good shape. GDP growth has been revised to up a little north of 3 percent for the latest quarter, and if the Fed were fine tuning, that`s just about the number they would fine tune it to. So I think people will be pleasantly surprised by earnings here.
KANGAS: And these kind of earnings will boost the market considerably from here?
DORFMAN: I`m guessing we will have a fourth quarter rally perhaps extending into January, but I`m a little worried about 2005 after that.
KANGAS: You made a lot of good calls on your last visit with us in January. The only miscue was your prediction that the Fed would not boost interest rates prior to the election. Well, we`ve had three increases, not big ones though.
DORFMAN: Yes and from a very low base, but you`re right. I didn`t earn my criminologist degree with the Fed.
KANGAS: And they`re just going to keep these measured 1/4 point increases up, do you think?
DORFMAN: I think you may even see one or two half point increases during 2005.
KANGAS: OK. All right. Let`s have a look at your previous recommendations given to us in late January when you were with us, and Alliant Techsystems (ATK) up nearly 7 percent. St. Mary Land & Exploration (MARY), an energy stock, look at that, up almost 40 percent, that was a great call. Then let`s have a look at the other remaining three that you recommended, Allied Domecq (AED), which makes Beefeater gin, among other things, up a little over 5 percent. InVision Technologies (INVN), 21 percent gain. And then you`re all on the plus side here and then you recommended shorting Fannie Mae (FNM), so you made money on that on the down side. Those were great calls, I congratulate you on all five profitable recommendations.
DORFMAN: Thank you, I very much appreciate that and a little luck does not hurt.
KANGAS: I don`t know how much of it is luck, I think probably experience is the best of all. How about some new recommendations, John?
DORFMAN: Sure, I`ll start with another defense sector pick, Allied Defense (ADG) and they make heavy duty ammunition that they sell to the United Nations, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and military electronics that they sell here in the United States mostly.
KANGAS: And stocks well down from its high?
DORFMAN: It sure is and that`s why I`m selecting it to highlight in the sector.
KANGAS: OK. Let`s go to number two recommendation.
DORFMAN: All right. Number two I`d like to recommend again St. Mary`s natural gas stock. Natural gas drillers have been drilling more lately but finding less gas.
KANGAS: This one is really reflecting their good luck in finding gas there. OK. Number three?
DORFMAN: Third I`d like to recommend Russ Berry (RUS). They make gift items such as teddy bears.
KANGAS: Boy, the bears really got a hold of the stock.
DORFMAN: They did for sure, but the stock has close to a 6 percent dividend yield and the company is debt free. Those are two things I like about it.
KANGAS: OK. Number 4 recommendation?
DORFMAN: Fourth I`d like to recommend Merck (MRK) which just got murdered yesterday on the news about the Vioxx recall. It was very bad news. But here you have a company that for years has been a research power house and has been able to pull rabbits out of a hat, I think they will do so again.
KANGAS: And we have time for one more recommendation and Fannie Mae.
DORFMAN: I`d like to reiterate my short recommendation on Fannie Mae. I don`t really know if in the next six months or so it will go down much more, but if interest rates rise next year, their elaborate hedging structure may run into trouble and that`s why I want to stay short it.
KANGAS: OK, stay short Fannie Mae. They do have their problems with the SEC accounting probe and all. Anyway, that`s very interesting and you had profits on all the last recommendation. Let`s hope the same holds true. Incidentally, do you own all these stocks you mentioned?
DORFMAN: We do.
KANGAS: And you`re short Fannie Mae as well?
DORFMAN: That`s correct.
KANGAS: OK, John, thanks for being with us. My guest, John Dorfman of Dorfman Investments.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/01/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened sharply higher on a fresh round of new quarterly fund buying and a J.P. Morgan upgrade of chip equipment stocks. An 8/10 percent rise in August construction spending was another plus. The Dow surged to a 110 point gain just before noon, with the NASDAQ up 40. Buyers remained in control for the rest of the day despite oil prices closing at a record $50.12 a barrel. The Dow Industrial Average came in with a gain of 112.38 points at 10,192.65. This week, the Dow fell twice, rose three times, had a net gain of 145.41 points. The NASDAQ soared 43 1/3 points today to end at 1,942.20. And there we see the weekly changes. The NASDAQ for the week was up 62 3/4 points. Standard & Poor`s 500 up nearly 17 points today. And in the bond market, the 10- year note fell 18/32, boosting the yield to 4.19 percent.
For the second day running, topping the active list today on 36.7 million shares, Merck (MRK) finally a gain after yesterday`s $12 per share plunge. There are some cautious buyers around. RJ - Raymond James Financial that is, upgraded it from "under perform" to "market perform" and Bear Stearns upgraded it to "peer perform" so the stock made a little comeback.
Pfizer (PFE) moving up $0.37.
Then Lucent Technologies (LU) dropped a penny.
Calpine (CPN) $0.08 gain there. Fifth in volume was EMC Corp. (EMC) with a gain of $0.48 a share.
Alliance Gaming (AGI) down $2.96. The company says it`s going to have a fourth quarter loss of $0.09 to $0.14 a share. That`s due to weakness in its Bally gaming subsidiary and also due to staff restructuring charges.
Texas Instruments (TXN) in the strong high tech group, up $1.38.
Nokia (NOK) up $0.67.
$0.39 rise in General Electric (GE).
And Micron Technology (MU) $0.33 gain.
Viacom (VIA) gained $1.05. Morgan Stanley brokerage upgraded it from "equal weight" to "over weight." Nice move there. And then IBM (IBM) itself doing all right, up nearly $1. The company plans to expand its on demand service centers around the world, apparently because there`s demand for them.
National Semiconductor (NSM) up $0.83. The company initiated a $0.02 quarterly dividend its first ever.
Teradyne (TER) up nearly $1. J.P. Morgan upgraded it from "under weight" to "neutral" as it did with a number of the other chip equipment stocks.
And then the beer and wine company Constellation Brands (STZ) up $0.97. Second quarter earnings more than doubled, $0.69, versus $0.34 last year and the company`s predicting third quarter earnings will rise to $0.80 a share.
Biovail (BVF), the Canadian pharmaceutical company up $0.98. The company has resolved its payment dispute with TEVA Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) and has extended the term of the pact between the two of them.
Cytec Industries (CYT), a specialty chemical company, down $3.34 on news it will acquire surface specialties business from UCB and it`s going to be a big bite of cash and stock, $1.8 billion to be exact.
And then Tupperware (TUP) sealed up a $0.96 gain. The company boosted its third quarter earnings estimate from $0.10 to $0.11, up to $0.16 to $0.18 a share.
NASDAQ`s most active Microsoft (MSFT) up $0.60.
There you see PeopleSoft (PSFT) rising nearly $3 a share. And now it looks like Oracle (ORCL) might be more probable to take them over as you heard.
Intel (INTC) $0.79 gain.
Research In Motion (RIMM) was down $2.54.
Bay (EBAY) gained $0.50 and fifth in volume.
Google (GOOG) close to another record high but not quite, up $2.98.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.83 rise.
$0.62 gain for Oracle (ORCL).
Yahoo! (YHOO) up $1.12.
And QUALCOMM (QCOM), tenth in dollar volume, up $1.41.
Evolving Systems (EVOL) up $1.24. A major customer has extended a contract with the company. It`s a software producer apparently and doing very well.
Redback Networks (RBAK) down $1.78. The company sees lower than expected revenues because of a delay in a customer order or several customers` orders.
Over on the American exchange, Interoil (IOC) up $3.03. Raymond James Financial started covering the stock with a "strong buy."
Also on the American Wellco Enterprises (WLC), which makes military boots, up $2.15 a share. Fourth quarter earnings more than doubled, $0.70 versus $0.34 last year. For the full year, $2.04 in earnings, up from $0.70 the year before.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
10/01/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10192.65 +112.38 + 1.1
HIGH 10198.62
LOW 10082.04
NASDAQ COMP. 1942.20 +45.36 +2.4
HIGH 1942.23
LOW 1908.57
VOLUME 1,589.5
PREVIOUS 1,754.2
UP VOLUME 1,360.9
DOWN VOLUME 215.1
DOW TRANSPORTS 3298.80 +55.29 + 1.7
DOW UTILITIES 298.32 +2.99 + 1.0
CLOSING TICK +537
S&P 500 1131.50 +16.92 + 1.5
S&P 100 543.11 +8.25 + 1.5
MIDCAP 400 601.79 +8.59 + 1.5
REUTERS/CRB 285.29 +.31 + .1
NYSE COMPOSITE 6663.18 +92.93 + 1.4
VALUE LINE 365.71 +6.61 + 1.8
RUSSELL 2000 585.03 +12.09 + 2.1
DJW 5000 11058.70 +163.22 + 1.5
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Sept. 15,2009 99 25/32 -8/32 + 3.43
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 100 16/32 -18/32 + 4.19
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 106 9/32 -25/32 + 4.95
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1753.69 -10.51
DOW CLOSE 10192.65 +112.38 + 1.1
ADVANCES 2444
DECLINES 831
NEW HIGHS 345
NEW LOWS 16
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
MRK Merck & Co 33.31 +.31 +.9
PFE Pfizer 30.97 +.37 +1.2
LU Lucent Tech 3.16 -.01 -.3
CPN Calpine 2.98 +.08 +2.8
EMC EMC Corp 12.02 +.48 +4.2
AGI Alliance Gaming 12.10 -2.96 -19.7
TXN Texas Instrument 22.66 +1.38 +6.5
NOK Nokia 14.39 +.67 +4.9
GE GE 33.97 +.39 +1.2
MU Micron Tech 12.36 +.33 +2.7
NASDAQ CLOSE 1942.20 + 45.36 + 2.4
VOLUME 1,838.7
PREVIOUS 1,679.8
ADVANCES 2179
DECLINES 901
NASDAQ ACTIVES
MSFT Microsoft 28.25 +.60 +2.2
PSFT Peoplesoft 22.83 +2.98 +15.0
INTC Intel 20.85 +.79 +3.9
RIMM Rsch In Motion 73.80 -2.54 -3.3
EBAY eBay 92.44 +.50 +.5
GOOG Google 132.58 +2.98 +2.3
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.93 +.83 +4.6
ORCL Oracle 11.90 +.62 +5.5
YHOO Yahoo! 35.03 +1.12 +3.3
QCOM Qualcomm 40.45 +1.41 +3.6
AMEX CLOSE 1279.27 + 7.44 + .6
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 102.16 +1.27 +1.3
QQQ NASDAQ 100 36.14 +.99 +2.8
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 113.65 +1.89 +1.7
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
VIA Viacom 35.05 +1.05 +3.1
IBM IBM 86.72 +.98 +1.1
NSM Natl Semiconduct 16.32 +.83 +5.4
TER Teradyne 14.36 +.96 +7.2
STZ Constellation 39.03 +.97 +2.6
BVF Biovail 18.28 +.98 +5.7
CYT Cytec Inds 45.61 -3.34 -6.8
TUP Tupperware 17.94 +.96 +5.7
EVOL Evolving Systems 4.32 +1.24 +40.3
RBAK Redback Networks 3.44 -1.78 -34.1
IOC Interoil 25.18 +3.03 +13.7
WLC Wellco Enterprise 19.20 +2.15 +12.6
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