10/15/04:
Fed. Chairman Alan Greenspan Expresses Optimism About Oil
PAUL KANGAS: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan did not seem particularly worried that oil prices near $55 a barrel will derail the economy. Oil prices rose $0.17 to a record high $54.93 a barrel in New York trading today as traders continue to fret about winter fuel supplies. Darren Gersh reports on the Fed chairman`s comments.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Alan Greenspan figures higher oil prices are acting like a tax on American consumers, shaving 0.75 percent off the nation`s gross domestic product. But as long as prices don`t go much higher, the Fed chairman predicts the economic hit will be modest.
ALAN GREENSPAN, FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN: The impact of the current surge in oil prices, though noticeable, is likely to prove less consequential to economic growth and inflation than in the 1970s.
GERSH: But after surveying photos of oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico that were devastated by hurricane Ivan, analyst Roger Diwan says oil prices could easily go up another $10 a barrel from here.
ROGER DIWAN, MANAGING DIRECTOR, PFC ENERGY: We`re running without excess capacity for the first time since `79, which means the markets don`t react very well to that. Any small disruptions have a dramatic impact on prices. So there are very little things we can do in the short turn to change the supply demand balance at least through the winter.
GERSH: And long-term expectations for oil prices are also rising. Greenspan says a few years ago futures markets were pricing long-term oil contracts at $20 a barrel. Now, they`re selling contracts for the year 2010 at $35 a barrel.
GREENSPAN: Rising geopolitical concerns about insecure reserves and the lack of investment to exploit them appear to be the key sources of upward pressure on distant future prices.
GERSH: If oil prices hover near current levels for years to come, Greenspan expects a new push towards conservation and tougher times for businesses that depend on cheap oil.
GREENSPAN: Unless oil prices fall back, some of the more oil-intensive parts of our capital stock would lose part of their competitive edge and presumably be displaced.
GERSH: Despite the 70 percent rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year, it was clear today that the Fed remains on course to move up interest rates at a measured pace when it meets again after the presidential election. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/15/04:
The Sunshine State Tries To Get Its Tourism Industry Warmed Up
LINDA O`BRYON: The hurricanes have dissipated and the damages are being repaired. But one Florida industry remains worried. As Jeff Yastine reports, tourism-related businesses are trying repair the damage to the state`s public image.
JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In much of the country, this is what people think of when you say Florida. Of course, leaders of the state`s $51 billion tourism industry would rather have people thinking of this or this.
WARREN MCLAUGHLIN, PALM BEACH COUNTY CONVENTION & VISITORS BUREAU: There`s been so much news about the storm out there that the perception in minds peoples` minds is that it`s a disaster area and nothing`s going on. Thank God that peoples` minds only last a short period of time. We all have very short memories, and within a couple months you say, you remember the hurricane? I don`t know. What was the name of it? However you must be proactive in this area.
YASTINE: So, with television ads like this one, tourism groups around the state are trying to get out the word that most of the state`s key attractions and hotels remain open and untouched and others that closed are now back in business. This hotel complex was dozens of miles away from where hurricanes Frances and Jeanne came ashore, but managers are phoning clients, telling them don`t cancel. We`re open for business.
CATHY BALESTRIERE, MANAGER, CRANE`S BEACH HOUSE: We mostly told them that we were not as affected as much as the northern parts of Palm Beach County. We were very fortunate that we did survive the storms thankfully, and had very little damage, no structural damage, nothing that we could report, so we are running very well.
YASTINE: Of course, not every hotel in Florida can say that. By some estimates, 90 percent of the hotel rooms in the Pensacola area were destroyed by hurricane Ivan. But elsewhere, many hotels are reporting record occupancy rates because of the legions of displaced homeowners, insurance adjusters and emergency crews in the state. Those in less-affected areas worry that business and convention planners may think twice about booking future meetings anywhere in Florida during peak hurricane months and at least one tourism group is willing to make a bet that four hurricanes in one season won`t repeat anytime soon.
NIKKI GROSSMAN, GREATER FT. LAUDERDALE CONVENTION & VISITORS BUREAU: If a hurricane disrupts your business or your group meeting in one of the next several out years in the months of August or September, we owe you one, or we owe you two or three or whatever number of days there was a disruption. We will give you free convention meeting space. If your meeting is over, we`ll bring you back free at another time for another event.
YASTINE: So far, there have few cancellations of large conventions for next year. And Florida hotels expect a busy winter, with hopes that memories of this summer`s season of storms fade quickly. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Miami.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/15/04:
The Plague of the Spy Ware
LINDA O`BRYON: Well, first there were viruses, then spam. Now spy ware is the latest threat to computer users. A study by the National Cyber Security Alliance found 90 percent of personal computers in the U.S. are plagued by some form of spy ware and most consumers don`t know what spy ware is or how to get rid of it. Stephanie Woods reports.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Spy ware`s the name given programs that lurk on the Internet and can be unknowingly downloaded on PC`s. The programs collect personal information, display annoying pop-up ads and in some cases can completely shut down a computer.
LYDIA PARNES, FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION: No computer user deserves to be spied on, barraged by pop up ads, or mouse jacked to unfamiliar sites by spy ware lurking on their computers.
WOODS: The Federal Trade Commission filed its first spy ware lawsuit this week, in an effort to shut down a spy ware operation. While the commission has begun fighting spy ware, it also wants computer users to be their own first line of defense.
PARNES: Consumers must be able to recognized the telltale signs of spy ware. They have to know how to remove it from their computers and how to side-step it in the future.
WOODS: The agency recommends consumers update Windows operating systems with the latest software patches. Only download free software from trustworthy sites. Don`t click on any pop up links and avoid clicking on links in spam that claim to offer anti spy ware software. But even the most vigilant PC users can be vulnerable.
MIKE GEORGE, GENERAL MANAGER, DELL COMPUTER: And there`s basically no way that any consumer, however knowledgeable, can completely avoid spy ware. I was telling my colleagues earlier today that I got hijacked last week on my business computer, which goes through a pretty stringent firewall and which I`m very careful of in terms of not using it for anything other than work-related purposes.
WOODS: While there may be no way to prevent spy ware from getting on your machine, computer experts say it pays to be vigilant, by installing an anti-spy ware program that can constantly scan for unwanted programs. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/15/04:
"Market Monitor"-- Michael Metz, Chief Investment Strategist for Oppenheimer & Company
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Michael Metz, chief investment strategist for Oppenheimer and Company and welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Mike. It`s great to see you again.
MICHAEL METZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, OPPENHEIMER: Thank you.
KANGAS: The stock market has had its fair share of body blows in recent months, including the mutual fund scandal, the banking investigations, the drug industry problems, soaring oil prices and now the insurance industry scandals. Do you think that the market has held up well enough to suggest it has bottomed out for the intermediate term?
METZ: Well, it is frankly amazing that it has held up under a barrage of bad news, but frankly I don`t think it is going anywhere on the upside near term.
KANGAS: How serious is this insurance industry scandal in your opinion?
METZ: Well, of course, it is economically serious for the industry, but I think its more profound impact will be on consumer confidence and on investor confidence. It`s already been shaken by other scandals, the financial intermediaries, I think this is going to worsen the situation.
KANGAS: What are your thoughts on the U.S. dollar?
METZ: I think the U.S. dollar is going to begin a major descent starting almost immediately. The irony is it`s gone down about 30 percent versus the euro and yet we are still not improving our trade imbalance with Europe. We have a problem with Asia. And my guess is the next administration, whatever it is, will engineer a significant decline in the dollar to help American manufacturing.
KANGAS: How about oil? Fed Chairman Greenspan today suggested, don`t worry about oil. It is not going to have that much of a major impact on the economy. What do you think?
METZ: Well there are so many other things to worry about. But frankly I`m worried about the impact of oil and it looks like the whole supply/demand balance has changed and we are in for high oil prices perhaps for decades.
KANGAS: You know, your last visit with us on April 2nd, you were bearish on the market. Indeed the Dow is down some 500 points and all the major averages also. You were right on that but I think I goaded you into giving us a couple of recommendations. Let`s have a look at those and see how they did, not exactly profoundly great.
METZ: My first mistake, Paul.
KANGAS: The I shares of Japan down nearly 12 percent, similar loss in the pharmaceutical ETF and then there was one other that you recommended.
METZ: Newmont.
KANGAS: Newmont Mining. It`s been a little bit higher. It`s practically unchanged from where it was. Are you still with all three of those?
METZ: Yes, I think all three are attractive for different reasons.
KANGAS: You only owned one, just the I shares of Japan, was the only thing.
METZ: That`s right.
KANGAS: But I think these are going to be your new recommendations as well am I correct?
METZ: That`s correct.
KANGAS: Let`s have a look then first, there was one other you mentioned to me in Europe that you liked.
METZ: Yes, basically I think Europe is the value market in the sense it is about a 30 percent discount to the U.S. It is undergoing a major restructuring of European companies. I think productivity will be improving. I think it is a very attractive place to be. Also there is the currency play. I think the euro will have an upward bias over the next few years.
KANGAS: OK. The chart shows it is on the upswing a little bit here. Let`s have a second choice.
METZ: The second one would be EWJ again. I think Japan is the great restructuring story in southeast Asia. At the same time, it will benefit from the growth in that region, enormously liquid universe of investors. I think the risk reward is very, very compelling.
KANGAS: So you`re going to stay with that same recommendation you gave us in early April.
METZ: That`s right.
KANGAS: OK. How about a third one?
METZ: Well, Newmont would be one.
KANGAS: You`re staying with that.
METZ: Yes, I think we are in an era of competitive currency devaluation and gold is a good insurance policy.
KANGAS: As you mentioned, if you think the dollar is going lower, that should help Newmont.
METZ: I think it will.
KANGAS: How about a fourth one?
METZ: The fourth one would be PPH again. This is really an exchange traded fund, sort of a collection of big pharmaceutical companies. It is interesting, the big pharmaceutical companies are now selling as cheap as they were when Clinton first got in office and everyone was fearful of a major change in the whole health system. I think they offer good value.
KANGAS: We can see by that chart on the PPH, the ETF for pharmaceuticals has had a terrible time in the last few weeks. So you like the idea of picking up on weakness.
METZ: Yeah, rather than picking the name in the group, yes.
KANGAS: OK. So gold and European stocks, you like, and then of course the pharmaceuticals.
METZ: Uh-huh.
KANGAS: So you think the worst is over for the pharmaceuticals?
METZ: That I don`t know, but I think this is a good time to start buying them.
KANGAS: OK. Do you own any new -- we know you own the Japan fund.
METZ: It`s among those that are mentioned.
KANGAS: OK. We have just a few seconds left. Bonds. What do you think about the bond market?
METZ: I think they are a sale here. I think rates -- the great bull market in bonds that began 20 years ago is over. I think rates are going to be rising for the next few years and I would certainly avoid bonds at this juncture.
KANGAS: All right. Clear enough, doesn`t get any clearer than that, Mike.
METZ: I could be wrong, Paul.
KANGAS: Thanks for being with us. We appreciate it.
METZ: OK.
KANGAS: My guest Michael Metz of Oppenheimer and Company.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/15/04:
"Last Word"-High Tech Shopping
LINDA O'BRYON: Finally tonight, now you can surf while you shop. The stop and shop grocery chain is testing high-tech grocery carts equipped with wireless computers. The idea is to let shoppers e-mail a grocery list to the store then view it on the screen on the carts. Customers can also scan items as they go and the computer will keep a running tab of what they plan to buy. The carts will also let customers onto the Internet but with very limited access to sites. Stop and Shop plans to put the carts into 20 stores, all in the Boston area, Paul.
KANGAS: I guess you`d call these cyber smart carts and I`m sure the store owner would like to see them be able to roll themselves from the parking lot back into the store.
O`BRYON: That would be a nice feature.
KANGAS: It would be.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/15/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS:That solid rise in retail sales, the mild increase in producer prices and bargain hunting after yesterday`s steep sell off gave Wall Street an early boost which lifted the Dow nearly 50 points and the NASDAQ five points. After Fed chief Greenspan played down the impact of high oil prices, the Dow rose as much as 90 points this afternoon, but then normal pre-weekend selling pressures cut those gains. The Dow Industrial Average still closed up almost 39 points at 9933.38.
This week the Dow rose twice, fell three times, had a net loss of 121.82 points. The NASDAQ Composite gained 8 1/2 points to 1911.50 today. It also rose twice and fell three times this week for an overall loss of just 8.47 points. The Standard & Poor`s 500 Index rose nearly 5 points today at 1108.20.
Treasuries closed out the week in the minus column. The 10-year note fell 10/32, lifting the yield to 4.06 percent.
Volume leader, 73.2 million shares changing, Marsh & McLennan (MMC) down another $5.65 or 16 percent after tumbling $11.28 or 24 percent yesterday on New York attorney general`s allegations of price fixing and pay offs. Also today, Prudential Securities downgraded March & McLennan from "neutral" to "under weight."
Now you see Pfizer (PFE) down $0.58, taking precautions on that Bextra drug.
American International Group (AIG) which was down nearly $7 yesterday, off another $2.15 today. It`s implicated in the Marsh & McLennan scandal.
United - or I should say Lucent Technologies (LU) was up $0.02.
And then Maxtor Corporation (MXO) lost $0.94. That`s a big percentage drop. The company`s chief financial officer is resigning for personal reasons. The CEO will fill in for him temporarily.
Nokia (NOK) moved up $0.52.
And Citigroup (C) rising $0.24.
General Electric (GE) a $0.09 gainer.
Bank of America (BAC) rose $0.79.
And on the down side and tenth in volume, MetLife (MET) down $2.26. The company has received two subpoenas from the New York attorney general`s office regarding the Marsh McLennan investigation.
Wachovia (WB), the big bank, up $1.16, third quarter earnings comfortably higher than last year, $0.96 versus $0.83. Excluding items, those earnings would be $1 a share, up from $0.88. That`s a penny better than the Wall Street was expecting.
Charles Schwab (SCH) up $0.53. The company did report a third quarter loss of $0.03 a share, but excluding one time items, it would have had earnings of $0.08, almost as much as last year`s $0.09. Apparently that`s why the stock had a little move up today.
W.R. Grace & Company (GRA) up $1.82. The company is asking the bankruptcy court for an extension in filing its reorganization plan, because the company says it`s making progress in coming to agreement with its creditors, so that`s a step forward.
Genuine Parts (GPC), the auto parts dealer, $3.09 gain. Higher third quarter earnings $0.56 versus $0.51 last year. It sees full year earnings of $2.22 to $2.25 a share.
And then Coventry Health (CVH) down another $2.40. It was off $5 3/4 yesterday on news it`s going to buy First Health Corp. for $1.8 billion. Today, UBS securities downgraded Coventry from "buy" to just a "neutral" rating.
And then ElkCorp (ELK), which makes roofing products, up $1.34. Its first quarter earnings were lower than last year, $0.37 versus $0.51. But it`s predicting second quarter earnings will be higher than first, somewhere around $0.44 to $0.46 a share.
Intel (INTC) topped the active list on NASDAQ, rising a dime.
Microsoft (MSFT) up $0.19.
Google (GOOG) I believe that`s a new closing record high, up $2.11.
eBay (EBAY) down $1.71.
Reseach In Motion (RIMM) gained $1.95, fifth in dollar volume on NASDAQ.
Apple Computer (AAPL), which had good earnings out earlier in the week, up $0.52.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) an $0.11 drop.
Juniper Networks (JNPR) fell $1.27, even though it had sharply higher third quarter earnings $0.09 versus only $0.02 a year ago. But analysts were disappointed over the lower than expected sales at the company`s security unit.
Yahoo! (YHOO) down $0.44.
QUALCOMM (QCOM), tenth in volume, gained $0.31 a share.
Then the (INAUDIBLE) casualty of the day, Netflix (NFLX) plunging $7.13 or almost 41 percent. The company did report third quarter earnings sharply higher, $0.29 versus only a nickel last year and revenues jumped 96 percent, but the company said it`s cutting its monthly DVD subscription price to $18 to meet new competition from amazon.com. A lot of analysts are concerned that $18 a month, Netflix will not be able to make much money, big casualty of the day.
But here`s a big gainer, NSD Bancorp (NSDB) rising $12.55 on news it will be acquired by FNB Corporation for stock worth a little over $38 a share.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
10/15/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9933.38 +38.93 + .4
HIGH 9982.71
LOW 9895.55
NASDAQ COMP. 1911.50 +8.48 +.5
HIGH 1923.92
LOW 1899.33
VOLUME 1,651.2
PREVIOUS 1,493.9
UP VOLUME 977.4
DOWN VOLUME 636.1
DOW TRANSPORTS 3352.68 +49.78 + 1.5
DOW UTILITIES 301.63 +2.50 + .8
CLOSING TICK +16
S&P 500 1108.20 +4.91 + .5
S&P 100 531.80 +2.22 + .4
MIDCAP 400 585.26 +2.26 + .4
REUTERS/CRB 285.59 +.94 + .3
NYSE COMPOSITE 6559.38 +43.28 + .7
VALUE LINE 356.27 +1.80 + .5
RUSSELL 2000 569.42 +4.54 + .8
DJW 5000 10838.68 +50.20 + .5
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Oct. 15,2009 100 9/32 -8/32 + 3.31
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 101 17/32 -10/32 + 4.06
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 107 24/32 -12/32 + 4.85
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1768.67 -6.72
DOW CLOSE 9933.38 +38.93 + .4
ADVANCES 2236
DECLINES 1034
NEW HIGHS 99
NEW LOWS 61
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
MMC Marsh & McLennan 29.20 -5.65 -16.2
PFE Pfizer 28.50 -.58 -2.0
AIG Amer Intl Group 57.85 -2.15 -3.6
LU Lucent Tech 3.50 +.02 +.6
MXO Maxtor 4.44 -.94 -17.5
NOK Nokia 14.72 +.52 +3.7
C Citigroup 43.94 +.24 +.6
GE GE 33.55 +.09 +.3
BAC Bank Of America 44.99 +.79 +1.8
MET MetLife 34.99 -2.26 -6.1
NASDAQ CLOSE 1911.50 + 8.48 + .5
VOLUME 1,650.6
PREVIOUS 1,598.6
ADVANCES 1790
DECLINES 1234
NASDAQ ACTIVES
INTC Intel 20.61 +.10 +.5
MSFT Microsoft 27.99 +.19 +.7
GOOG Google 144.11 +2.11 +1.5
EBAY eBay 93.76 -1.71 -1.8
RIMM Rsch In Motion 81.75 +1.95 +2.4
AAPL Apple Computer 45.50 +.52 +1.2
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.48 -.11 -.6
JNPR Juniper Networks 23.76 -1.27 -5.1
YHOO Yahoo! 34.52 -.44 -1.3
QCOM Qualcomm 42.47 +.31 +.7
AMEX CLOSE 1285.65 + 7.92 + .6
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 99.47 +.38 +.4
QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.67 +.25 +.7
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 111.26 +.62 +.6
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
WB Wachovia 48.45 +1.16 +2.5
SCH Charles Schwab 9.00 +.53 +6.3
GRA WR Grace Co 11.58 +1.82 +18.7
GPC Genuine Parts Co 39.80 +3.09 +8.4
CVH Coventry Health 43.89 -2.40 -5.2
ELK ElkCorp 27.30 +1.34 +5.2
NFLX Netflix 10.30 -7.13 -40.9
NSDB NSD Bancorp 36.70 +12.55 +52.0
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