10/22/04:
Investors Go Ga Ga Over Google Again
LINDA O'BRYON: Stocks on Wall Street tumbled today on fresh concerns about soaring oil prices. Crude oil closed above $55 a barrel for the first time in New York and the Dow sank almost 108 points to a new low for the year. The NASDAQ losing 38. But there was one bright spot. Shares of Internet search engine Google bucked the trend, skyrocketing more than $23 a share. Scott Gurvey reports.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Investors turned positively ga-ga over Google today, driving shares of the Internet search engine company up 15 percent in heavy trading. Google stock has now more than doubled its IPO price of $85 a share. Google began trading on August 19. Today`s market action follows the company`s first quarterly earnings report as a public company in which profit, revenue and cash flow came in well ahead of analyst expectations. Today, several analysts raised their price targets on the stock to between $200 and $250 a share, forecasting a big move of ad dollars to the Internet. Others have their targets under review.
DAVID, GARRITY, TECHNOLOGY ANALYST: Obviously, we`re talking about billions of dollars of advertising revenue. There are only a certain number of sites who really are able to support that and obviously Google is amongst the leaders in that area. So we can say that Google`s growth prospects are very well supported. You know, can we support a $200 price target off this kind of fundamental growth? Yes we can.
GURVEY: Analysts argue that Google has a unique growth story as the Internet`s premier search engine. They say Yahoo! has a similar position as a popular portal or home site for Internet browsers, while eBay continues to be the leading name in online auctions. On the other hand, amazon.com is one one-time high flyer which continues to struggle because, analysts say, the giant online merchant is now seen as a retailer, with correspondingly low growth rates.
STEVE WEINSTEIN, INTERNET ANALYST: I think you`re seeing a lot more differentiation between stocks. While you have a big move in Google today, you have a big move down in Amazon where the numbers weren`t as good and I think you`re seeing investors really being much more discerning about where they are going. I think Google, I mean the excitement is about earnings. It`s not about revenue or users.
GURVEY: Even while raising their price targets, many analysts today warned of increased volatility in Google stock because many shares of stock which are currently restricted will become available for trading over the next few months. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/22/04:
One On One With New York Comptroller Alan Hevesi
LINDA O`BRYON: The television stations in the Sinclair Broadcasting Group plan to air parts of a controversial documentary about John Kerry`s service in Vietnam. Sinclair has come under criticism since saying it would air the entire program. This week the company backed off that. But the flap has sent shockwaves through Sinclair`s stock, a chunk of which is owned by New York State`s pension plan. Today I asked the plan`s administrator, New York comptroller Alan Hevesi. I began by asking him about the purpose of a letter he wrote to Sinclair`s CEO David Smith.
ALAN HEVESI, NEW YORK STATE COMPTROLLER: Well, it was a reflection of, first of all, my role as a fiduciary, representing 964,000 members of the New York State common retirement system and secondly, of a concern that the actions of Sinclair potentially -- had the potential to damage the value of our shares. We own 256,000 shares of the company and I wanted some questions answered as to whether those actions were beneficial or a liability.
O`BRYON: And what actions are you most concerned about?
HEVESI: Well, it was the appearance of complete partisanship in the presidential election on the part of the Sinclair management by putting on television a documentary that purported to be news, but was in fact a one-sided documentary, a propaganda film. Both sides have propaganda films, but it`s not the job of a journalistic enterprise to be anything but neutral and fair in the coverage.
O`BRYON: Have you heard back from Mr. Smith?
HEVESI: No, what happened was the day after we sent the letter, there was a public announcement that they were pulling back on the original plan to run the film on all 62 of their stations that they own in America, but that they would fold it into some kind of analytical documentary. If they do that fairly, we don`t have an objection. But to create the impression that they are a partisan journalistic operation subject to license where they`re supposed to be committed to fairness and neutrality and objectivity, that could damage our -- the value of our shares, their performance and so on.
O`BRYON: Well, Sinclair Broadcasting stock has lost more than 50 percent of its value since the beginning of the year. What impact has that had on the New York State retirement fund?
HEVESI: As with every other investor in Sinclair, the value of our shares has gone down. Our purpose is to have this company and its management strengthened and perceived by the public as a very positive force for providing news and other services, so that the value of the shares go up. And we think that downward trend in performance was damaged by the decision of management and we want to -- we`re glad that they`re attempting to repair that, but they really have to understand what their mission is in order to protect their own performance and value.
O`BRYON: We tried to reach the Sinclair management, but the company did not return our calls. The company on its web site denies having a political agenda and says it is airing a news special and has never publicly announced it intended to run the entire "Stolen Honor" documentary.
HEVESI: It was reported in almost every newspaper and news outlet in the country for many days. Had it been untrue from day one, they could have said so. They certainly are in the media communications business. They didn`t do so, so I think that`s a little disingenuous.
O`BRYON: Well, Sinclair Broadcasting is no stranger to controversy. David Smith and his family control 95 percent of the stock. Why would the New York retirement fund invest or stay invested in a company so closely held, so controversial and as one columnist said, where crisis management has become routine?
HEVESI: Well, we invest in huge numbers of companies, every large company in America. We`re currently a $117 billion fund. We invest overseas. We invest in New York State and all across the country. And the last thing we ever want to do is divest from any company. We do so when it`s really the responsible thing to do as a fiduciary, but what we really want to do is use the leverage of our involvement. We own the company. We`re shareholders, in reforming their performance, in reforming their independent directors on their boards and reforming their management so that the company is profitable. That`s the best way to grow our value and their value as well.
O`BRYON: Thank you very much.
HEVESI: Thank you.
O`BRYON: We`ve been speaking with Alan Hevesi, New York State comptroller.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/22/04:
The Business of Getting Out The Vote
LINDA O`BRYON: Well, getting out the vote on November 2 has
become a critical strategy for two of the nation`s big groups:
business and labor. But as Stephanie Woods reports, the two
are going about that in very different ways.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Paul
Andre Mondesir is working for the Service Employees International
Union. His job is to get out the vote in Miami`s Haitian community.
PAUL ANDRE MONDESIR, SEIU MEMBER: Every day for Monday to
Saturday we go out and do the job, not necessarily for the
election, but for life, because life is very important and
everybody has to give their cooperation if everybody wants
really something changed in America.
WOODS: Mondesir is paid by the union. He`s only been in the
U.S. a few months and is not registered to vote himself. But
his job is part of an unprecedented $65 million political
campaign by the SEIU, targeting battleground states in an
effort to unseat President Bush. The union is sponsoring rallies
and says it has over 2,000 workers going door to door and
50,000 members volunteering nationwide for this campaign season.
ANNA BUGER, SEIU SECRETARY/TREASURER: Our workers and the
workers that they talk to understand what the crisis is in
health care. We`ve lost 5.2 million Americans have lost health
care just in the last four years. We`ve lost 1.5 million jobs
just in the last four years. They feel that every day. They
live that and when they talk about help in voting and why
voting makes a difference, that matters.
WOODS: Taking advantage of early voting, SEIU member Sonja
Bethal cast her ballot in her first US presidential election
Monday. She has spent the past month knocking on doors and
speaking with potential voters.
SONJA BETHAL, SEIU MEMBER: I find out what their issues are,
if they have any that are facing them, or what is going through
in our environment, in our community now and I go from there.
WOODS: The labor unions have long been known for their ability
to get out the vote. But business groups who support the Bush
administration say they`re not ceding the ground war to the
unions.
MICHAEL BAROODY, EXEC VP, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF MANUFACTURERS:
We can do better than labor what labor does. The employer
is a more credible source of information to his own workers.
Survey after survey has told us this, a more credible source
of information than either political party or organized labor.
WOODS: The National Association of Manufacturers is working
with the business industry PAC and member employers to get
out the vote. Dubbed the prosperity project, employers are
pointing employees to pro-business candidates through company
web sites, e-mails, and power point presentations.
BAROODY: If their employers tell them that these issues have
everything to do with their job security, with their prospects
for improved livings standards, better life for their family,
all of a sudden it isn`t removed from real life at all.
WOODS: While business and labor groups clearly disagree on
many issues, both do agree that the organization created in
this campaign will be used to battle over those issues long
after the election is over. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT, Washington.
To learn more about this subject, click
here.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
10/22/04:
"Market Monitor"-Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "Global Trend Alert"
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of "Global Trend Alert," an advisory service for institutional investors. Great to see you again Stan. Welcome.
STAN WEINSTEIN, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, GLOBALTREND ALERT: Always my pleasure to be here, Paul.
KANGAS: Nasty, nasty sell-off today. Are we suddenly in a bear market here?
WEINSTEIN: I think we`re in the ninth inning of a bull market. I don`t think we`re yet in the bear market. I think it`s a mistake to talk about bull markets, bear markets. Really a bull and bear market existing side by side. In this tape (ph), you can see so many of the big cap stocks (INAUDIBLE) like Ford, Minnesota Mining getting hit, a lot of that technology doing well. This is typical, late-in-the-day action.
KANGAS: So we`re overvalued, fairly valued or undervalued?
WEINSTEIN: You know me. I`m a technician. I don`t get into value. I think half the market is bullish, half is bearish. I think in the months ahead it will become more bearish.
KANGAS: What if Bush is reelected, will that help? Or if Kerry wins, is that going to hurt? How`s it going to work?
WEINSTEIN: I think that it`s no secret that the market will most definitely want Bush to win. You watch when the polls were bad for Bush, the market went down between February and August. Since then, market`s done somewhat better. I think if Bush gets elected, you`ll see a fourth quarter rally, but I still think that even if Bush gets in, the first quarter, second quarter of the new year could be a problem. With Kerry, I think it will be even worse.
KANGAS: What would be the most prominent warning signs for you to say that we`re going into a bear?
WEINSTEIN: I think you should watch the following levels. Right now we`re getting warnings, the fact that the market is so divergent, split, that`s a concern. But if we close below 1060 on the S&P at any time in the coming months, if the NASDAQ Composite confirms, it closes below 1850, that would be a bear market. I don`t think we`re ready for a bear market. I think there`s one more good rally coming.
KANGAS: What do you make of stocks like General Motors and Google going through the roof?
WEINSTEIN: That`s the most important thing, Paul, that we can get across to viewers tonight. Too many people are treating this as a monolith. You know by reading my stuff that there`s a lot of stuff that I`m very, very bullish on, a lot of technology, the Verisigns (ph), the Googles. That`s doing fine. Conversely, an awful lot of value, General Motors, Ford, Minnesota Mining, we`re bearish on and this phenomenon often appears in the ninth inning of a bull market. It`s one of many reasons I`m concerned.
KANGAS: On your last visit with us in very early January, you liked health-related stocks and oils and they really have done well. Are you out of them now or staying with them?
WEINSTEIN: Health care we should be getting out of. Oil, downgraded from a "buy" to a "hold" but we no longer want to do buying in it. Conversely, we do want to go buying as we correct during technology.
KANGAS: How come you don`t give us any individual stocks anymore?
WEINSTEIN: You know after all the years of having a professional tape reader, retired it almost five years ago, I don`t think it`s fair to the viewers because you can`t follow --
KANGAS: No follow-through.
WEINSTEIN: once or twice a year. So certainly my institutional clients get it, but I can`t do it on the show. It`s not fair.
KANGAS: OK. You liked gold back in early January too. It`s done well. Are you still with it?
WEINSTEIN: Still with gold, moderately bullish, watch two levels. If the gold bouillon - it`s about 425 right now. If the topside closed above $437, we started a new up leg (ph) and any time in the coming months, if it goes below 400, gold turns negative. Right now moderately bullish.
KANGAS: OK, so you don`t -- no individual stocks, but what sectors are your favorites?
WEINSTEIN: Right now I think the clear sector is technology. Reminds me very much of Q1 in 2000, where a lot of stocks are going into a bear market, Internet and technology are still bullish. That`s what you want to play. Conversely, stay away from autos, auto parts, drug stocks, insurance, a lot of financials. We have a very selective market and I think the answer here is selectivity and caution.
KANGAS: How about a word about bonds? What do we do with bonds here? We only have about 40 seconds left.
WEINSTEIN: I think that bonds are moderately positive which actually worries me for next year for the economy. Bonds are still moderately positive, would only turn negative on bonds if the long-term, 30-year contract breaks down and closes below the 103 level. Right now bonds moderately positive.
KANGAS: Boy, I`ve seen you more bullish on stocks than you are right now.
WEINSTEIN: Well, one of the things that concerned me was on your show last time was I thought there would be a top this year and I think we`ve seen it. It often happens in an election year. I think we`ve done the election-year top.
KANGAS: OK. Fair enough, Stan. Thanks for the warning I guess we can say. But anyway, great to see you again.
WEINSTEIN: It`s always my pleasure, Paul.
KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week, Stan Weinstein, editor and publisher of the "Global Trend Alert."
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/22/04:
"Last Word"-The Absentee Out of this World Vote
LINDA O'BRYON: Finally tonight, one American will cast his vote for the president on November 2, far from home and we mean really far from home. Astronaut Leroy Ciaowill be orbiting 225 miles above the earth on November 2, in the international space station. He`ll be voting by email under a special arrangement that uses a secure connection with no election workers, no ballot boxes and no gravity. Astronauts were first allowed to vote from space under a Texas law, Paul, signed, interestingly, by then-governor George W. Bush.
KANGAS: Boy, there is an absentee ballot that is an absentee ballot.
O`BRYON: It`s kind of an out of this world experience.
KANGAS: Really.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
10/22/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Stocks headed modestly lower early today after investors spent the night pouring over the latest earning outlooks from Microsoft, amazon.com and others. In lackluster trading, the Dow drifted to a 38 point loss by late morning, while the NASDAQ Composite slid 17 points. Rising oil prices brought more selling this afternoon and as technical support levels broke, the market ended at its worst level of the day. The Dow Industrial Average lost almost 108 points, ending at 9757.81.
The Dow fell in four of this week`s five seasons for a net loss of 175.57 points. The NASDAQ Composite lost 38 1/2 points today at 1915.14. It fell twice and rose three times this week, gaining 3.64 points overall, actually gained. Standard & Poor`s 500 was down 10 3/4 points, closing at 1095.74 today.
In the bond market, the 10-year note was up 8/32 at 102 6/32, putting the yield all the way down to 3.98 percent.
The most active New York Exchange issue on 28.3 million shares, Lucent Technology (LU) showing no change.
American International Group (AIG) was down $1.75. The Smith Barney brokerage downgraded it from "buy" to just a "hold."
Then Marsh & McLennan (MMC) up $1.94. Various reports say that Chairman Jeffrey Greenberg may step down in the interest of spurring settlement talks with the New York attorney general.
Pfizer (PFE) was down $0.70.
GE (GE) a $0.42 loss, fifth in big board volume.
Motorola (MOT) was down $0.43.
Texas Instruments (TXN) dropped $0.74.
Citigroup (C) a $0.39 loss.
Merck & Company (MRK) down $.70.
And then finally a gainer, tenth in volume, Dow Chemical (DOW) moving up $1.03 on news that a Texas jury found the company`s Union Carbide unit committed no fraud in a $1.3 billion asbestos lawsuit.
Ingersoll Rand (R) which is in the climate control and security business, closed with a loss of $0.09, but it traded as high as $67.75 early in the day. First of all, the company yesterday reported a 54 percent jump in third quarter earnings and today the Legg Mason brokerage upgraded the stock from "hold" to a "buy."
Schlumberger (SLB), the big oil company, oil driller, down $1.90. Third quarter earnings $0.53 versus a loss of $0.09, but the profit margin fell by 1 percent. Apparently, that`s what turned off some investors.
Crane Company (CR) was up $1.68. Excluding one-time charges, third quarter earnings came in at $0.56 versus $0.47 a year ago and that was $0.04 better than the Street was expecting.
Fortune Brands (FO) gained $1.49. Third quarter earnings excluding items came in at $1.20, $0.02 above the Street estimate and the company sees fourth quarter earnings growing in double digits.
Universal Health Services (UHS) gained $1.31. Third quarter earnings were lower, $0.62 versus $0.79 last year, but the company says volume of unpaid bills and uninsured patients is stabilizing. Meanwhile today, Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock from "neutral" to a "buy."
Adesa (KAR ), this is the big car auctioneering company, up $1.70, nice percentage gain. Third quarter earnings were just a touch lower than last year, $0.32 versus $0.33 then, but it sees full year revenues at $920 million. That`s above the Street estimate of $911 million. Meanwhile, Barrington Research upgraded the stock from "market perform" to an "out perform" rating.
McKesson Corp. (MCK) up $2 even. Second quarter earnings $0.29, down from $0.53 last year, but JPMorgan upgraded the stock from "neutral" to "over weight."
And then the big loser, Visx (EYE) down $2.62. It had sharply higher third quarter earnings, $0.22 versus $0.10 last year, but revenues fell short of expectations and the RBC Capital brokerage downgraded it from "out perform" to just a "sector perform."
Kellwood (KWD), the apparel company, down $3.11. The company cut its third quarter estimate from $1.15 down to $1, cut its full year estimate from the Street estimate of $3.19 down to $2.75.
Volume leader Google, (GOOG), you`ve heard all about it, new high, up $23 and a nickel.
Microsoft (MSFT) down $0.82.
And then eBay (EBAY) down $3.68 after a big gain yesterday.
Yahoo! (YHOO) lost $0.74.
Intel (INTC), $0.39 loss, that was fifth in dollar volume.
Amazon.com (AMZN) down $4.87.
$4.06 drop in Broadcom (BRCM). Incidentally, Broadcom had a disappointing outlook despite good earnings yesterday.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) down $0.36.
And KLA Tencor (KLAC), tenth in volume, up $0.50.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
10/22/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 9757.81 -107.95 - 1.1
HIGH 9883.25
LOW 9753.02
NASDAQ COMP. 1915.14 -38.48 -2.0
HIGH 1952.54
LOW 1914.39
VOLUME 1,473.6
PREVIOUS 1,672.3
UP VOLUME 438.2
DOWN VOLUME 980.2
DOW TRANSPORTS 3371.94 -59.75 - 1.7
DOW UTILITIES 303.48 +2.81 + .9
CLOSING TICK +436
S&P 500 1095.74 -10.75 - 1.0
S&P 100 525.16 -6.10 - 1.2
MIDCAP 400 586.73 -5.36 - .9
REUTERS/CRB 286.55 -.19 - .1
NYSE COMPOSITE 6521.32 -42.17 - .6
VALUE LINE 355.35 -4.04 - 1.1
RUSSELL 2000 567.78 -8.88 - 1.5
DJW 5000 10748.04 -103.82 - 1.0
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Oct. 15,2009 100 18/32 +5/32 + 3.25
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 102 6/32 +8/32 + 3.98
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 109 7/32 +8/32 + 4.76
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1785.44 2.30
DOW CLOSE 9757.81 -107.95 - 1.1
ADVANCES 1173
DECLINES 2078
NEW HIGHS 126
NEW LOWS 45
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
LU Lucent Tech 3.51 unch. unch.
AIG Amer Intl Group 54.70 -1.75 -3.1
MMC Marsh & McLenn 26.79 +1.94 +7.8
PFE Pfizer 27.74 -.70 -2.5
GE GE 32.95 -.42 -1.3
MOT Motorola 16.56 -.43 -2.5
TXN Texas Instrument 22.31 -.74 -3.2
C Citigroup 42.56 -.39 -.9
MRK Merck & Co 30.56 -.70 -2.2
DOW Dow Chemical 43.60 +1.03 +2.4
NASDAQ CLOSE 1915.14 - 38.48 - 2.0
VOLUME 1,741.5
PREVIOUS 2,014.5
ADVANCES 986
DECLINES 2045
NASDAQ ACTIVES
GOOG Google 172.43 +23.05 +15.4
MSFT Microsoft 27.74 -.82 -2.9
EBAY eBay 95.91 -3.68 -3.7
YHOO Yahoo! 34.96 -.74 -2.1
INTC Intel 21.30 -.39 -1.8
AMZN Amazon.com 34.60 -4.87 -12.3
BRCM Broadcom 26.41 -4.06 -13.3
RIMM Rsch In Motion 85.90 -3.66 -4.1
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.27 -.36 -1.9
KLAC KLA Tencor 43.51 +.50 +1.2
AMEX CLOSE 1306.33 + 2.59 + .2
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 97.75 -1.19 -1.2
QQQ NASDAQ 100 35.80 -.80 -2.2
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 109.99 -1.25 -1.1
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
Display Name
IR Ingersoll-Rand 66.13 -.09 -.1
SLB Schlumberger 65.79 -1.90 -2.8
CR Crane Co 29.93 +1.68 +6.0
FO Fortune Brands 72.01 +1.49 +2.1
UHS Univ Health Svc 41.18 +1.31 +3.3
KAR Adesa 18.00 +1.70 +10.4
MCK Mckesson Corp 24.98 +2.00 +8.7
EYE Visx Inc 16.60 -2.62 -13.6
KWD Kellwood 31.97 -3.11 -8.9
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