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Program: Thursday, October 28, 2004

ExxonMobil Is Pumped Over Third Quarter Profits
Will We Know Who The Next President Will Be Next Week?
"My Greatest Challenge"-John Bogle, Founder, The Vanguard Group
Commentary: Irving R. Levine, An Undecided Voter
"Tech Talk"-Voting Machines, Money & Spyware
Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News

Market Stats

10/28/04: ExxonMobil Is Pumped Over Third Quarter Profits

SUSIE GHARIB: Record oil prices fueled record profits at the nation`s largest oil company. Today a third quarter profit of $6.25 billion or $0.96 a share, excluding charges. That beat estimates of $0.87 and is well ahead of the $0.55 the oil giant earned in the same period last year. Revenues topped $76 billion, up from less than $60 a year ago. Surging demand for crude led to big gains in the company`s refining operations and caused earnings to quadruple in its chemical division. But analysts say meeting that demand long-term is a big challenge.

SAL ILACQUA, OIL ANALYST, MONNESS, CRESPI, HARDT & CO. Their primary problem is the same problem that faces the whole oil industry. They`re producing roughly one billion barrels of oil a year and 1.5 trillion cubic feet of gas and I think it`s going to be a real difficult effort to replace that reserves in the coming years.

GHARIB: But not everyone is getting richer from higher oil prices. It is costing consumers a lot more to stock up on home heating oil for the winter. And as Diane Eastabrook reports, the price could climb higher as temperatures fall lower.

DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Bell Fuels is now delivering home heating oil and sticker shock to its 1,200 customers in the Chicago area. Many consumers fill storage tanks in the fall when fuel prices are usually cheaper than the winter. But not this year. Prices are already through the roof.

GEORGE SWEENEY, VICE PRESIDENT, BELL FUELS: Looking at this last year, we didn`t anticipate seeing $50 crude, so they`ve struggled with it quite a bit. They`re very apprehensive and pretty scared to tell you the truth.

EASTABROOK: Home heating oil prices are getting a jolt because hurricane Ivan disrupted petroleum production in the Gulf of Mexico just as refiners were beginning to make heating oil for the winter. As a result, heating oil stocks are down 17 percent compared to last year and retail prices for the fuel have soared 67 percent. Suppliers say typically at this time of year, the wholesale price for home heating oil will increase anywhere from a half a penny to a penny overnight. But in the past few weeks, the price has been increasing $0.05 to $0.07 overnight. Analysts fear prices could continue climbing for months if refiners can`t produce enough heating oil or if a colder than normal winter creates excessive demand.

PHILIP FLYNN, ENERGY ANALYST, ALARON TRADING: You never want to say hey, we`re not going to have enough to get by because we`ve never really been in that situation. We always find a way. The problem is at what price and the prices could be dramatically higher.

EASTABROOK: So far, Bell Fuels has been able to get the heating oil it needs and customers have been able to pay for it. But, the company worries that could change as winter approaches.

SWEENEY: We really keep a credit limit on the customers and enforce that limit because it`s just too many dollars outstanding out there.

EASTABROOK: The petroleum Marketers Association of America wants to organize a summit on heating oil prices with the Department of Energy. But the association concedes any meeting with the DOE will probably have to wait until after the presidential election. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Cicero, Illinois.



Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

10/28/04: Will We Know Who The Next President Will Be Next Week?

SUSIE GHARIB: The road to the White House is getting shorter. Just five days until the presidential election and both candidates are ramping up their campaigns. Today, Democrat John Kerry was in Toledo sporting a world champion Boston Red Sox cap and telling supporters President Bush should start taking responsibility for his mistakes. The president used his appearance in Saginaw, Michigan, to say his opponent is quote, the wrong man for the wrong job at the wrong time.

PAUL KANGAS: Americans expect to wake up November 3 and know will be the next president. But with polls showing the race too close to call, there may not be an immediate winner. Stephanie Woods looks at what could be in store if there`s a repeat of election 2000.

STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Four years ago, it took 35 days of recounting, litigation, and the U.S. Supreme Court to determine an election winner. This time around, financial markets are bracing for a rerun.

STEVE EAST, ECONOMIST, FRIEDMAN, BILLINGS, RAMSEY: A repeat of 2000 when we wake up the day after the election and don`t know who`s president and we don`t know for weeks causes a lot of uncertainty and it`s hard to make decisions and plan what you`re going to do with your business when you don`t know what the political climate is going to be like. WOODS: During those 35 days in 2000, the S&P lost 6.7 percent at its lowest point. The Dow dropped nearly 5 percent, before recovering. The NASDAQ, also under pressure by a busted tech sector, plunged nearly 20 percent in the same timeframe. While U.S. investors are bracing for a possible stock market drop this election, analysts say the story is different overseas.

GREG VALLIERE, POLITICAL STRATEGIST, SCHWAB WASHINGTON RESEARCH: Foreign investors, though, have not factored this in and therefore the U.S. dollar or any dollar denominated assets could get hit if we go days and days without knowing who the winner is.

WOODS: But the effects could be short lived. Experts say, while a post- election battle could shake consumer confidence and punish financial markets, it may be easily absorbed in a growing economy.

STEPHEN FULLER, ECONOMIST, GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY: This probably is not as bad as the three hurricanes that went through Florida last month. We can measure the impact there in jobs loss and hours lost, and work and damage, probably not see any impact on GDP.

WOODS: While the economy may take a hit from election uncertainty, analysts agree it`s the fundamentals like oil prices, corporate profits and interest rates that could land a more serious blow. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

10/28/04: "My Greatest Challenge"-John Bogle, Founder, The Vanguard Group

SUSIE GHARIB: This year, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT is celebrating its 25th anniversary. We worked with the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania to select the 25 most influential business people of the last 25 years. Now, the partnership of knowledge at Wharton and NBR has produced a book profiling those leaders titled "Lasting Leadership". This week, NBR`s Linda O`Bryon features three of those leaders talking about the challenges they`ve faced. Tonight, she sits down with Vanguard`s legendary leader John Bogle and begins by asking him about his greatest challenge.

JOHN C. BOGLE, FOUNDER & FORMER CEO, THE VANGUARD GROUP: Well I guess I`d have to say getting fired from a job that with a company that I thought was mine, although I didn`t own it, in 1974 was certainly the biggest challenge I`ve had in my business career so far.

LINDA O`BRYON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: So tell us what happened after you got fired?

BOGLE: First I didn`t like it much. I was heartbroken. My career was really in shambles and I had to figure out what to do about it. And what came into my mind was an idea I`d had probably going back to when I wrote my senior thesis at Princeton on the mutual fund industry and that is that the structure of the mutual fund industry could be improved on. We needed to do something new and being fired gave me an opportunity to walk down a new road.

O`BRYON: And you walked down that new road the very next day.

BOGLE: It is a curious coincidence of the calendar that the board meeting of Wellington Management company, the organization that fired me was on, I think Monday evening and the board meeting of the fund directors, a slightly different group, was in New York on the very next day. So after getting fired at 2:00 o`clock in the morning I was on the 7:00 o`clock train to New York the next morning trying to make my case.

O`BRYON: What was your vision at that point for the company?

BOGLE: My vision was to create a mutual fund company that was organized not for the managers to make money by operating a company and having a big profit after they take their expenses. Mutual fund managers get fees. They`ve got their costs, and they make an extraordinarily large amount of money. My idea was to have the management company owned by the funds themselves, a truly mutual, mutual fund group, in which all those profits would be basically rebated to the fund`s shareholders and that`s the way it`s worked.

O`BRYON: How did you talk the board into running a new fund which ultimately became the Standard and Poor`s 500 index fund?

BOGLE: Well my first idea was an idea I`d also been playing with for decades, really, and that is the idea of a market index fund, a fund that would own the entire stock market through the Standard and Poor`s 500 about the same thing and just not manage anything and of course when I proposed this new fund, the directors said you`re not allowed to get into investment management and I said well this fund isn`t managed. And they bought that somewhat disingenuous argument.

O`BRYON: You have also endured medical challenges having undergone a successful heart transplant. But you said you had some serious reservations before accepting that heart transplant. What were they?

BOGLE: Well, I mean obviously I wanted to live. I had my first heart attack when I was 30 years old and had struggled with it for 35 years and by that time my heart was about to give out at age 66 actually. I was trying to find a heart transplant and was taken into the heart transplant system in which you are basically dated when you get in there, there`s no favoritism. And you get in line and wait and I waited for 128 days to get that transplant, being kept alive on intravenous. But, during that time, I started to think pretty seriously about, you know, whether an old guy if you will, should get a heart destined for a younger person. And I finally decided that the system was the system and maybe I could be of some use as a citizen and as a human being to the world. So I decided that I would take advantage of that huge break that was offered to me.

O`BRYON: So from your personal challenges, what lessons would you have for today`s leaders?

BOGLE: If my life can offer any lesson to anybody, let`s be fair, is never underestimate the importance of determination and never underestimate the importance of values and never underestimate the importance of some kind of virtue as you run your career. Try and do things better. I think a good rule for every leader is let`s try and leave whatever we touch a little bit better than it was when we found it. And a few other lessons that were in my career that we haven`t talked about really are, if you make a mistake, admit it. If you want to be bold, and boldness is a very important part of leadership, have some foresight. Don`t be bold for the wrong things. Try and figure out what the right way to do things is, and then be bold. And another trait I think is important is introspection. You know, walk around yourself once in a while. Laugh at yourself. Ask yourself if you`re really as smart as you think you are, or as determined as you think you are, anything else. Don`t give yourself the benefit of the doubt. Give yourself the question of doubt.

O`BRYON: Great suggestions. Thank you very much, John Bogle.

BOGLE: Thank you.

KANGAS: Tomorrow, our Friday "market monitor" guest is Mario Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Gabelli Funds.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

10/28/04: Commentary: Irving R. Levine, An Undecided Voter

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight`s commentator is on the fence about who to vote for in Tuesday`s presidential election and he`s concerned about making or getting the right call. Here`s Irving R. Levine, dean emeritus at Lynn University and former chief economics correspondent for NBC news.

IRVING R. LEVINE, DEAN EMERITUS, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, LYNN UNIVERSITY: I`m an undecided voter. I`m told that this too-close-to-call election hinges on undecided voters like myself and that we`re being courted by both candidates. To my disappointment, I`ve not received a phone call from either Bush or Kerry soliciting my vote. I did receive a mailing with a very nice photo of George W. and Laura Bush asking for a contribution. Since I`m an independent, I ignored it. The debates didn`t help me make up my mind because neither candidate was entirely convincing. I doubt Kerry can keep his promise to save Social Security without raising the retirement age or cutting benefits and I`m skeptical when Bush says he can cut the deficit in half in five years. On other pocketbook issues, I like the Bush tax cuts. But I know Kerry is right when he says the cuts contribute to the scary budget deficits. As for personalities, I thought Kerry was appealing in the debates when he said that he had married above himself, referring to his wife`s wealth. And Bush was engaging when he said that Laura speaks English better than he does. I still have five days to make up my mind. Maybe Bush or Kerry will pull off a November 1 surprise and that will do it for me or maybe one of them will phone me. I am Irving R. Levine.



Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

10/28/04: "Tech Talk"-Voting Machines, Money & Spyware

SUSIE GHARIB: And in our "tech talk" segment tonight: electronic voting machines, scoping out spyware, and managing your money. So here`s our technology guru, Scott Gurvey.

SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Computer scientists are lining up to be expert witnesses in the post election lawsuits many are anticipating. About 30 percent of the nation`s voters will be using touch- screen voting machines. The problem is that most of those machines do not produce any kind of audit trail, meaning there is no way to recount each individual ballot. Technology experts have been warning about this potential bombshell for months. I`ve gotten used to the fact that about eight out of 10 emails I receive are junk. I pretty much ignore anything that doesn`t come from someone I know. But even my computer got infected last week by one of those insidious adware programs that pops-up an ad screen every few minutes. I tried several freeware, shareware and commercial solutions without success. Then I used a program known as "hijackthis" which produces a report on everything running on your system and allows you to delete whatever you want. With that, I killed the culprit. Unfortunately this is not a program easily used and you can damage your system by deleting the wrong things. Congress is proposing to make adware and spyware a crime. I`m all for that and suggest several years at hard labor for the perpetrators, specifically, taking apart obsolete computers in an environmentally safe way of course, to salvage reusable parts. After many years of testing and comparing Intuit`s Quicken with Microsoft`s money, both personal finance programs, it is clear to me from the 2005 editions that Microsoft money has solidly taken the lead. It is simply easier to set up, easier to use and produces better looking reports. New this year is the ability to produce simplified reports and views of your accounts. Of course the more detailed versions are still available. It is easy using money to download information from your bank and broker to automatically update your accounts. And the program does a great job of advising you as to significant changes in your budget, cash flow and investment portfolio. A 90-day free trial version of Microsoft money is available for download on the Microsoft web site. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

10/27/04: Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"

PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened lower on profit taking after two days of big gains. The Dow fell 40 points at the outset while the NASDAQ lost 10 points. Those earnings from ExxonMobil, along with Aetna and Gillette helped the market recover so by early afternoon, the Dow was up 15 points, NASDAQ up three. But the rally fell far short as the Dow industrial average (INAUDIBLE) with a closing gain of only 2 1/2 points at 1004.54. The NASDAQ Composite closed up 5 3/4 points at 1975.74. Standard & Poor`s 500 up 2 points at 1127.44. Bonds fell early today on news that China was boosting interest rates by just over 0.25 percent. But on further reflection of that move, bonds did rebound. The 10-year note came in with a closing gain of 8/32 pushing the yield down to 4.06 percent.

New York exchange volume leader on 25.2 million shares, Lucent Technologies (LU) moving up $0.09.

And then the new issue, DreamWorks Animation (DWA), a very animated first day of trading, 28 million shares offered to the public at a price of 28 and the stock opened at 39 1/2. That was the high of the day, very successful first day of trading.

Pfizer (PFE), $0.33 loss.

Viacom B (VIA.B) gained $1.02. The company did report a third quarter loss of $0.28, versus earnings of $0.40 last year, but one time charges related to the Blockbuster spin off were responsible for most of that and the company plans to buy back $8 billion of its own stock.

Texas Instruments (TXN) moved up $0.60, fifth in big board volume.

Then Delta Air Lines (DAL) up $0.78. You just heard the news. That`s almost a 16 percent gain and on top of the news about the pilots, Bear Stearns brokerage upgraded the stock from "under perform" to "peer perform."

ExxonMobil (XOM) down $0.34 despite those great earnings. Of course, the stock`s had quite a run.

Citigroup (C) $0.71 gain.

Procter & Gamble (PG) down $0.47.

And Verizon Communications (VZ) dropped $0.02. Excluding one-time items, the company had third quarter earnings of $0.65, down from $0.67 a year ago, but that was a penny better than the Street was expecting. Aetna (AET) had a great day, up $3.55. Excluding one time items, third quarter earnings came in at $1.84, up from $1.29 last year. That was $0.11 better than the Wall Street consensus.

Gillette (G) up $1.90, big earnings there, third quarter, $0.47, up from $0.41 a year ago and $0.04 better than the Street estimate. The company also has a bullish outlook for next year.

Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE) up $1.78 despite lower third quarter earnings, $0.44 versus last year`s $0.55, but the company sees full year around $1.26 to $1.30.

Dow Chemical (DOW) fell $0.94, even though its third quarter earnings shot up to $0.65 versus only $0.36 last year and that was $0.03 above the Street estimate, but you can see the stock`s had quite a recent rise.

GrafTech International (GTI) down $3.22. Third quarter loss of $0.10, versus earnings of $0.09 last year. The Street was actually looking for earnings of $0.12. The company sees fourth quarter earnings of about $0.12, so a big percentage loss in the stock.

American Italian Pasta (PLB) was down $6.43. Company sees a fourth quarter loss around $0.13 a share because of declining pasta consumption, but it sees 2005 earnings of $0.90 a share nevertheless but the Street was looking for $1.65.

A new, another new offering today, Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) acting very bullish today. There were 7 1/2 million shares offered to the public at 20. Stock opened at 27 and that was the high of the day, did very well.

Google (GOOG) topped the active list on NASDAQ. I believe that`s a new closing high, up $7.33.

Then Microsoft (MSFT), $0.14 drop.

Intel (INTC) was up $0.27.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.40 gain.

Major casualty, Ask Jeeves (ASKJ) tumbling $8.41. Third quarter earnings came in at $0.25 versus $0.09 last year. That was in line with Street estimates, but the company sees a lower than expected outlook for the full year this year as well as next year and that`s what hurt the stock.

eBay (EBAY) a $0.20 gain.

Apple Computer (AAPL) rose $1.89.

Dell (DELL) Incorporated $0.04 gain there.

Symantec (SYMC) down $2.83. Deutsche Bank Securities downgraded it from "buy" to "hold" and earlier this week, the chairman of Symantec sold 325,000 shares of the stock.

ImClone Systems (IMCL) down $5.25. Third quarter earnings $0.45 versus a loss last year, but there was disappointment over the company`s Erbitux sales.

We had a few other new issues, FoxHollow Technologies (FOXH) came public today, 4 1/2 million shares at 14, opened at 16 1/4, the high of the day 21 1/2, then it backed off a bit.

And Calamos Asset Management (CLMS) up $1.92 on the day, 20 million shares offered at 18. It opened there and the high of the day was $22.35.

And those are the stocks in the news tonight.

10/28/04: Market Stats


                                      NET    PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE DOW CLOSE 10004.54 +2.51 + .0 HIGH 10044.95 LOW 9952.48 NASDAQ COMP. 1975.74 +5.75 +.3 HIGH 1980.36 LOW 1959.57 VOLUME 1,631.0 PREVIOUS 1,747.9 UP VOLUME 851.6 DOWN VOLUME 759.1 DOW TRANSPORTS 3484.45 +9.25 + .3 DOW UTILITIES 311.26 -1.15 - .4 CLOSING TICK +1125 S&P 500 1127.44 +2.04 + .2 S&P 100 539.48 +1.70 + .3 MIDCAP 400 600.90 -.71 - .1 REUTERS/CRB 283.27 -2.13 - .8 NYSE COMPOSITE 6670.50 +4.63 + .1 VALUE LINE 364.62 -.31 - .1 RUSSELL 2000 585.63 -1.55 - .3 DJW 5000 11049.24 +13.39 + .1 U.S. TREASURIES 5-YEAR NOTE 3.375% Oct. 15,2009 100 9/32 +6/32 + 3.31 10-YEAR NOTE 4.25% Aug. 15,2014 101 18/32 +8/32 + 4.05 30-YEAR NOTE 5.375% Feb. 15, 2031 108 7/32 +15/32 + 4.82 LEHMAN BROS. LONG BOND INDEX 1769.81 +2.02 DOW CLOSE 10004.54 +2.51 + .0 ADVANCES 1713 DECLINES 1569 NEW HIGHS 191 NEW LOWS 29 NET PERCENT NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE LU Lucent Tech 3.58 +.09 +2.6 DWA Dreamworks Animat 38.75 +10.75 +38.4 PFE Pfizer 28.71 -.33 -1.1 VIAb Viacom "B" 36.00 +1.02 +2.9 TXN Texas Instrument 24.34 +.60 +2.5 DAL Delta Air Lines 5.72 +.78 +15.8 XOM Exxon Mobil 48.61 -.34 -.7 C Citigroup 44.26 +.71 +1.6 PG Procter & Gamble 51.31 -.47 -.9 VZ Verizon Comms 39.38 -.02 -.1 NASDAQ CLOSE 1975.74 + 5.75 + .3 VOLUME 1,828.5 PREVIOUS 1,833.7 ADVANCES 1482 DECLINES 1564 NASDAQ ACTIVES GOOG Google 193.30 +7.33 +3.9 MSFT Microsoft 28.01 -.14 -.5 INTC Intel 22.27 +.27 +1.2 CSCO Cisco Systems 18.95 +.40 +2.2 ASKJ Ask Jeeves 26.58 -8.41 -24.0 EBAY eBay 98.87 +.20 +.2 AAPL Apple Computer 52.19 +1.89 +3.8 DELL Dell Inc 34.63 +.04 +.1 SYMC Symantec 59.37 -2.83 -4.6 IMCL Imclone Systems 45.95 -5.25 -10.3 AMEX CLOSE 1307.60 - 7.24 - .6 INDEX SHARES DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 100.27 +.13 +.1 QQQ NASDAQ 100 36.96 +.23 +.6 SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 113.24 +.36 +.3 STOCKS IN THE NEWS AET Aetna 95.30 +3.55 +3.9 G Gillette Co 41.99 +2.07 +5.2 CCE Coca Cola Enter 20.67 +1.78 +9.4 DOW Dow Chemical Co 44.07 -.94 -2.1 GTI Graftech Intl 9.25 -3.22 -25.8 PLB Amer Italian 21.32 -6.43 -23.2 BBW Build-A-Bear Work 25.05 +5.05 +25.3 FOXH Foxhollow Tech 20.45 +6.45 +46.1 CLMS Calamos Asset Mgmt 19.92 +1.92 +10.7

 

 

 

 

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