11/05/04:
The Employment Report Works For Wall Street
SUSIE GHARIB: A blowout employment report surprises economists
and pushes stocks higher for a third straight day. The Dow rose 72 points
and the NASDAQ added 15 on news that 337,000 new jobs were created in
October. The big question now is whether this robust hiring spree will
last. Scott Gurvey reports.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: October saw the
largest gain in non-farm payrolls since March. The increase reported by
employers of 333,000 jobs was double what most economists were expecting.
In addition, the reports for August and September were revised upward. Job
growth has now averaged 225,000 over the last three months. The economy
needs to add about 150,000 jobs each month to keep pace with population
growth. The rate of civilian unemployment rose in the month to 5.5 percent
according to the separate household survey.
BRIAN FABBRI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BNP PARIBAS: What`s happened is that the
labor market conditions improved so much that we saw a big surge in numbers
of people coming in to the labor market. That actually is good news and
for that reason to have the unemployment rate go up is actually good.
People are looking for jobs.
GURVEY: But one month does not a solid recovery make. The Bureau of Labor
Statistics says in part the hiring surge in October was due to rebuilding
and cleanup activity following the hurricanes in the southeast. Economists
say there are also signs that future employment growth remains uncertain.
These include a decline in hours worked in manufacturing and in overtime
hours, sluggish growth in hourly earnings, as well as slowing economies
overseas. Less educated workers are also being challenged by a change in
the types of jobs available.
ETHAN HARRIS, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, LEHMAN BROTHERS: The best job for a
high school graduate is to work in a factory, and now those jobs are
shrinking, at least in recent years, and temp jobs, retail jobs and so on
are replacing them, less paid, less benefits. So there has been some
weakening at the low end of the scale in terms of job quality.
GURVEY: The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is expected to increase
interest rates by one quarter of one percentage point to 2 percent. The
next Fed meeting after that is in December and Fed watchers are currently
split on their expectations for another interest rate increase at that
meeting. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/05/04:
What's Ahead For The New Republican Congress?
PAUL KANGAS: Tuesday`s election solidified the Republicans` hold on both
chambers of Congress. When the 109th session begins in January, the GOP
will have additional seats in the House and a wider majority in the Senate.
Stephanie Woods looks at what the next Congress might or might not get
done.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Even before the
109th Congress is sworn in, President Bush has challenged lawmakers with
calls for legal reform, tax simplification and changes to the Social
Security system. But getting those things done may not be easy.
THOMAS MANN, GOVERNANCE STUDIES, THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Mark my word,
Social Security reform and tax reform are amazingly complex, in both their
substance and their politics and I can`t imagine any of that rushing
through Congress.
WOODS: Although Republicans will have a 55 seat majority in the Senate,
getting almost anything done requires 60 votes, enough to cut off a
filibuster. There may be enough moderate Democrats to pass medical
liability reform and an energy bill that includes drilling in the Alaska
wildlife reserve. But bold changes may end up more modest. In the case of
tax simplification, experts say it`s unlikely a sweeping change, like
scrapping the income tax would pass.
JOHN FORTIER, RESEARCH FELLOW, AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE: If it means
removing some people from having to file income tax returns or file simpler
returns or fewer deductions, I think that`s doable.
WOODS: Lawmakers will also have to deal with large budget deficits,
potentially rising interest rates, and spending pressures for defense and
homeland security. And even though the Republicans control the Senate,
they don`t always agree. There are moderates like Senators John McCain and
Chuck Hagel. There are more conservatives like new members Tom Coburn and
Jim DeMint. President Bush may find it hard to keep his party focused on
his agenda.
ANTHONY CORRADO, GOVERNMENT PROFESSOR, COLBY COLLEGE: While he would like
to spend his political capital on issues like Social Security reform, or
tax simplification, he may be facing a breakdown in Iraq that leads to
further strain over foreign policy, a Supreme Court nomination that becomes
particularly divisive and thus forces him to spend his capital in other
ways.
WOODS: Meanwhile, the 108th Congress still has to come back next week and
finish its work. That may require President Bush to spend some political
capital. Lawmakers will take up appropriations bills and the president has
already asked Congress to hold the line on spending. Stephanie Woods,
NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/05/04:
China Braces For The Beijing Olympic Business Boom
SUSIE GHARIB: As we learned from the summer Olympics this year in Athens,
the games can be golden, generating huge profits for the corporate
investors. So U.S. companies are now racing to get in on the Beijing
Olympics in 2008, China`s first. But while there are opportunities to cash
in on the Olympic dream, they`re not necessarily opportunities that the
International Olympic Committee would approve of. Nick Mackie reports from
China.
NICK MACKIE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: This may seem like a
promotion for the Olympic games. But in fact it`s a real estate
development company`s sales drive and it`s using Jacques Rogge (ph),
International Olympic Committee president, as a prop. The IOC says its
archives contain no record of any permission to use any of the photos,
signatures or comments that appear in the Olympic garden promotions.
However, the developer, China sports industry, says the biggest names in
the Olympic movement did write these words and that China`s Olympic
committee approved the use of the famous five ring logo. The IOC wants to
know what is going on. It seems a good example of how China and Chinese
businesses can be at best very innovative in how they approach the 2008
Olympics.
Over in Beijing, another portrait and this man would have condemned any do
or die capitalism. But that was before China opened up in the 1980`s.
Now, as the primary 2008 Olympics host city, Beijing intends to become a
state of the art showpiece for the world`s TV cameras. Bids are going out
internationally for $23 billion worth of major commercial developments, new
transportation networks and 18 sports facilities.
MATTHEW GETTMAN, US EMBASSY, BEIJING: This has been one of the most open
and transparent processes yet for tender opportunities. It is an
opportunity for China to showcase China to the world and so they`re trying
to make the best of this opportunity.
MACKIE: Of course, doing business in China is complex. Foreign architects
like Australia`s PTW, which is designing the futuristic swimming complex,
must either form a partnership with a Chinese firm or ensure that one third
of its design team has Chinese licenses. It opted for partnership.
SHEN YI, DIRECTOR, CHINA PROJECTS, PTW: You need friends and professional
partners.
MACKIE: Most contractors and supplies opt for joint ventures as the right
local partner brings local knowledge and the right local connections. Even
for those enterprises new to this market, get it right and the Olympics can
offer a key to the door, for both the big and the small.
GETTMAN: And if they`ve got a product, a niche opportunity, then they need
to be looking at what the marketing plan going after that throughout the
country and not just for the Olympics.
MACKIE: On the Yellow Sea, the city of Gingdao has such a marketing plan.
It`s branded itself, "China`s sailing city". As host for the sailing
events, it`s now spending $4 billion on infrastructure improvements, which
will turn this old shipyard site into prime real estate.
TRANSLATION OF: WANG DONG CHU, GEN. MGR., DONG`AO GROUP: The area of land
has a high value in itself. Facing the opportunity of holding the Olympic
games here, its value in both commercial use and in its value to the city`s
infrastructure has increased greatly.
MACKIE: With their determined and sometimes opportunistic enthusiasm for
making the most of the opportunity, some in China already appear to be
cashing in. And there`s clearly still plenty of scope (ph) for others,
including U.S. companies to do the same. Nick Mackie, NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT, Chongqing.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
11/05/04:
"Market Monitor"-Douglas Jimerson, president of National Investment Advisors
PAUL KANGAS: My guest "market monitor" this week is Douglas Jimerson, president
of National Investment Advisors and the manager of the beta index fund and
welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Doug. Great to see you.
DOUGLAS JIMERSON, PRES., NATIONAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS: Thank you, Paul.
It`s great to be back.
KANGAS: For someone who has been extremely cautious about the stock market
for some time now, has this week`s rally impressed you to the point where
you`ve become an outright bull on stocks?
JIMERSON: I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that there is no
real clarity yet. But the good news is that perhaps in just a few days, we
are going to see some clarity, because we have some very important
technical levels that I`m watching.
KANGAS: And I suppose the Standard & Poor`s 500 index is one of them. I
know you pay close attention to that.
JIMERSON: It certainly would help to look at the picture.
KANGAS: There it is. All right. It`s bumping along here near a resistance
level.
JIMERSON: 1172. We talked about it last time. It`s a key resistance level
on that long-term chart. You see that long-term head and shoulders that
pattern that was formed by the bull market and then the bear and then you
have this shoulder resistance from the previous high several years ago.
KANGAS: So we`ve got to get above 1172?
JIMERSON: 1172 is key. We are very close just like we were the last time I
was here.
KANGAS: That`s right and you weren`t bullish then.
JIMERSON: No, I was very concerned that we wouldn`t get through that level
and we tried in June and then we backed off again. So now we`re waiting.
That could happen any time.
KANGAS: OK, but if it gets through there, you become a bull.
JIMERSON: Absolutely.
KANGAS: All right. Now as cautious as you`ve been in your last two visits
with us, you still had five buy recommendations. Let`s see how they`ve
done since your May 2003 visit with us. That`s two visits ago. Look at
this. You liked the defense stocks. General Dynamics up about 60 percent,
Lockheed Martin, 22 1/2 percent and then you had a few others like
Raytheon, another defense stocks doing very well (INAUDIBLE) and look at
Chevron Texaco. You love the energy group for the last two visits and that
has really paid off. There was one other energy stock that is widely
known, ExxonMobil which is up a mere 38.4 percent. Congratulations on a
great call.
JIMERSON: Thank you very much.
KANGAS: Are you still with these? I know you don`t own them but your
clients do, is that correct?
JIMERSON: Absolutely. What we do at National Investment Advisors is track
mutual funds, so we use energy funds that are the equivalent. But you
know, I called the energy sector a stallion last time.
KANGAS: Yes you did.
JIMERSON: And that is it and we`ve had a wonderful race.
KANGAS: Are you still with them? Are you staying with them?
JIMERSON: We are still in them and now it`s very important to have a stop
strategy, a stop under your price, under the price level of today so that
you don`t lose. So a 7 percent stop below today`s price. If you are using
mutual funds, a 50 day moving average is the stop loss.
KANGAS: And speaking of averages, we have a chart of the American exchange
oil index. Let`s have a look at that and what does that tell us?
JIMERSON: That tells us that we did get that extension. I was expecting
about a third of the rally we got between May and now and to me it looks
really great but I`m a trend follower and I would be watching now to see if
that peaks and starts to turn down.
KANGAS: Time to take money off the table.
JIMERSON: So then you just use those stops. That`s all you have to do at
this time.
KANGAS: In these oil stocks that you`ve recommended.
JIMERSON: I would expect by the next time I`m back with you in six months
or so, that we are going to be in cash with those positions. So people
need to be careful.
KANGAS: What is your current allocation cash via stocks and bonds?
JIMERSON: Well, we`re heavily in cash. We have 20 percent in those energy
funds. We moved out of the bond funds recently.
KANGAS: And moved out of the defense stocks as well.
JIMERSON: That`s right. And as far as other funds, we`ve had positions
during the summer in growth funds, but we`ve stood aside. Now we are
waiting, if there is a breakout, we`ve got a key level here on the NASDAQ.
It`s 2055.
KANGAS: OK, NASDAQ is another thing, 2055 and 1172 on the S&P. If it
breaks above, you become a bull.
JIMERSON: Got to go with the trend.
KANGAS: There we go. Thanks very much for being with us again Doug.
JIMERSON: Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: My guest Douglas Jimerson, president of National Investment
Advisors.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/05/04:
"Last Word"-New York Isn't In A Credit Card State of Mind
SUSIE GHARIB: And finally tonight, if you were hoping to be able to tuck an official New
York City credit card in your wallet forget about it. Today, Mayor Michael
Bloomberg scrapped plans to sell the city`s name for use on a credit card.
Bloomberg was hoping banks and other financial institutions might be
interested in using the big apple`s name and image. But the idea was
killed when the numbers just didn`t add up. Bloomberg said it wouldn`t
have generated enough cash to make it worthwhile. But Paul, all is not
lost. Our mayor is now looking into other ways New York can make money by
marketing its name. Maybe you`ve got a suggestion.
KANGAS: How about the pothole capital of the world? That wouldn`t work
right. No.
GHARIB: I don`t think... Somehow, I don`t know, I can`t put me finger on
it but I don`t think that`s what he had in mind.
KANGAS: Probably not.
\
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/05/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: That strong employment report helped Wall Street extend its gains
into the third straight session this morning as the Dow jumped another 100
points at the outset while the NASDAQ rose 22. Undermining the market
during mid session were profit takers, a rise in oil prices and that weak
dollar, but they weren`t enough to keep stocks from closing with solid
gains. The Dow industrial average ended up 72 3/4 points at 10,387.54.
This week, the Dow rose in four of the five trading sessions, for a net
gain of 360 points. That`s 3.6 percent. The NASDAQ Composite today was up
15 1/3 points ending at 2038.94. It advanced every day this week for a net
gain of almost 64 points or 3.2 percent. This Standard & Poor`s 500 Index
was up 4 1/2 points today exactly at 1166.17. In the bond market, the 10-
year note fell 26/32, boosting the yield up to 4.18 percent.
New York exchange volume leader on 34.4 million shares, Merck & Company
(MRK) down $0.81, traded as low as $0.26. The medical journal called
"Lancet" reports on a study that shows there was enough evidence to justify
removing the Vioxx pain killer from the market about four years ago.
Pfizer (PFE) down $0.27. Still lingering concerns about side effects of its
Celebrex drug. The company insists it`s safe.
There you see Sears (S) up $8.70 on that Vornado news and it`s traded as
high as $49.90 during the day.
Time Warner (TWX) fell $0.21.
And General Electric (GE) gained a dime. That was fifth in big board
volume.
Viacom B (VIA.B) fell $0.51.
Citigroup (C) $0.04 gain.
No change in Lucent Technologies (LU).
Motorola (MOT) a $0.02 gainer.
And NorTel Networks (NT), tenth in volume, was up $0.04 per share.
Univision Communications (UVN), the A stock, down $4.01. Third quarter
earnings were a bit higher, $0.21 versus $0.16 last year, but the company
sees fourth quarter earnings coming in around $0.18 to $0.20 and that`s
below the $0.23 Street estimate. Meanwhile, CIBC World Markets brokerage
downgraded the stock from "outperform" to "sector perform." Merrill Lynch
downgraded it from "buy" to just a "neutral" rating.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) up $1.57. The company sees third
quarter earnings of as much as $0.21 a share, nicely above the $0.19 Wall
Street estimate.
Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY), which makes adhesives had kind of a rough
day here, got into a sticky situation overseas. The company expects to be
fined materially by the European Commission for anti-competitive
activities. Lehman Brothers brokerage downgraded the stock from
"overweight" to "equal weight," down nearly $7.
Magna International (MGA) which makes vehicle parts, up $5.99, nice move
there. Company had sharply higher third quarter earnings, $1.55 versus only
$0.44 last year. Revenues jumped 34 percent.
And a little slip up on Chiquita Brands International (CQB) here. Chiquita
Brands down $2.05. The company had a third quarter loss of $0.49 versus
earnings of $0.25 last year, but excluding one-time items, it earned a
nickel a share during the period.
And Wabash National (WNC) which makes truck trailers was upgraded by Bear
Stearns from "peer perform" to "outperform," a gain of $1.48 as a result.
And Brush Engineered Materials (BW) up $1.24. Jeffries brokerage upgraded
it from "hold" to "buy."
Arlington Tankers (ATB). Then we had a new issue, initial public offering.
This is a tanker outfit. It has a number of vessels and 11.45 million
shares offered to the public at 20, opened at 22.30. The high of the day,
$22.84, then it backed down $0.80 on the close, but still had a good first
day.
Google (GOOG) tumbling $15.35. UBS Securities issued a "reduce" rating.
Microsoft (MSFT) down, up $0.31.
Research In Motion (RIMM) tumbling $10.33. There`s speculation the company
may lose a patent infringement case that`s currently on appeal.
Intel (INTC) $0.48 gain.
eBay (EBAY) down $1.19, fifth in dollar volume.
Apple Computer (AAPL) was up $0.27.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.45 gain.
Yahoo! (YHOO) down $1.31.
Amgen (AMGN) gained $1.66, tenth in volume.
Dell (DELL) a $0.68 rise there.
NVIDIA (NVDA) up $2.23 gain. NVIDIA had a really good third quarter, much
better than expected, $0.15 in earnings versus only $0.04 a year ago.
And then another initial public offering today MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX),
this is a company that`s involved in the electronic trading mostly of
bonds, 5 million shares offered to the public at $11, stock opened at
$12.75 and had a high of $17.61 and back down just a few cents from the
best level of the day, nice debut.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/05/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10387.54 +72.78 + .7
HIGH 10416.67
LOW 10316.98
NASDAQ COMP. 2038.94 +15.31 +.8
HIGH 2046.92
LOW 2025.63
VOLUME 1,725.0
PREVIOUS 1,790.0
UP VOLUME 1,100.8
DOWN VOLUME 595.4
DOW TRANSPORTS 3572.50 +9.66 + .3
DOW UTILITIES 320.07 -1.47 - .5
CLOSING TICK +914
S&P 500 1166.17 +4.50 + .4
S&P 100 557.90 +2.28 + .4
MIDCAP 400 619.98 +1.65 + .3
REUTERS/CRB 283.66 +.99 + .4
NYSE COMPOSITE 6906.23 +21.03 + .3
VALUE LINE 377.62 +2.34 + .6
RUSSELL 2000 604.29 +2.16 + .4
DJW 5000 11409.59 +38.39 + .3
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Oct. 15,2009 99 18/32 -17/32 + 3.47
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 100 19/32 -26/32 + 4.18
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 106 31/32 -1 10/32 + 4.90
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1753.59 -18.84
DOW CLOSE 10387.54 +72.78 + .7
ADVANCES 1695
DECLINES 1700
NEW HIGHS 461
NEW LOWS 7
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
MRK Merck & Co 26.21 -.81 -3.0
PFE Pfizer 28.79 -.27 -.9
S Sears Roebuck 45.88 +8.70 +23.4
TWX Time Warner 16.73 -.21 -1.2
GE GE 35.19 +.10 +.3
VIAb Viacom "B" 36.49 -.51 -1.4
C Citigroup 46.13 +.04 +.1
LU Lucent Tech 3.58 unch. unch.
MOT Motorola 17.07 +.02 +.1
NT Nortel Networks 3.44 +.04 +1.2
NASDAQ CLOSE 2038.94 + 15.31 + .8
VOLUME 1,916.7
PREVIOUS 1,833.4
ADVANCES 1858
DECLINES 1235
NASDAQ ACTIVES
GOOG Google 169.35 -15.35 -8.3
MSFT Microsoft 29.31 +.31 +1.1
RIMM Rsch In Motion 77.75 -10.33 -11.7
INTC Intel 23.36 +.48 +2.1
EBAY eBay 99.68 -1.19 -1.2
AAPL Apple Computer 54.72 +.27 +.5
CSCO Cisco Systems 19.97 +.45 +2.3
YHOO Yahoo! 36.35 -1.31 -3.5
AMGN Amgen 60.66 +1.66 +2.8
DELL Dell Inc 37.49 +.68 +1.9
AMEX CLOSE 1327.18 - 2.30 - .2
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 104.22 +.90 +.9
QQQ NASDAQ 100 37.96 +.34 +.9
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 117.28 +.72 +.6
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
UVN Univision Comm 28.79 -4.01 -12.2
GT Goodyear Tire 11.80 +1.57 +15.4
AVY Avery Dennison 54.90 -6.99 -11.3
MGA Magna Intl 78.24 +5.99 +8.3
CQB Chiquita Brands 16.99 -2.05 -10.8
WNC Wabash Natl 26.33 +1.48 +6.0
BW Brush Engineered 17.50 +1.24 +7.6
ATB Arlington Tankers 22.04 +2.04 +10.2
NVDA Nvidia 17.64 +2.23 +14.5
MKTX MarketAxess Hldgs 17.49 +6.49 +59.0 |
