11/19/04:
Fed. Chairman Alan Greenspan's Warning Does Wicked Things To Wall Street
SUSIE GHARIB: A warning from Alan Greenspan today triggered a sell off on Wall Street. The chairman of the Federal Reserve said the U.S. must deal with the causes of the weak dollar or the economy could run into problems in the future. In a speech in Frankfurt, Germany, he said that unless the U.S. addresses its swollen trade and Federal budget deficits, foreign investors will have quote, diminished appetite for American securities. Greenspan's comments and a renewed surge in oil prices worried investors, causing stocks to end the day and the week on a down note. The Dow slipped 115 points and the NASDAQ fell 34. Is this the beginning of the end for the post-election rally? Suzanne Pratt reports.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The last month or so has been a pretty good one for most stock investors. Not only did all of the major stock indexes tack on healthy gains, the Dow finally returned to positive territory for the year. After today's losses, the blue chip index is once again about flat for the year and a growing number of market firms are questioning whether stocks can hold on to all of their recent gains.
MARY FARRELL, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, UBS WEALTH MANAGEMENT: I do think that there could be some more strength down the road. But, with the election behind us, I think investors are now focusing on the fundamentals again.
PRATT: The recent rally, which began in late October, was fueled by a big drop in energy prices and rising employment growth. Some experts are concerned a lot of that good news has now been discounted by the market. As a result, many expect stocks will trade sideways for the next several months. Others worry a weak dollar will be the biggest hurdle to the stock market in the coming months. As the greenback falls, it makes dollar-denominated securities, including stocks, less attractive to foreign investors.
KEVIN BANNON, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BANK OF NEW YORK: I think the new wildcard in the equation is the dollar which is getting a lot of headline attention of late. It's been weak for a while, but it's getting to the point now where people are wondering whether it will have an impact on interest rates.
PRATT: Nevertheless, some market experts are still fairly optimistic about the long-term future for stocks. But rather than predicting the usual and historic return of 10 to 12 percent, they are forecasting growth for the major indexes of about 6 to 8 percent.
FARRELL: As we look to 2005, the fundamentals are good, but they're moderating. Economic growth is slowing, corporate earnings are slowing. And, I think that's going to weigh on the potential performance.
PRATT: It may be a bit early for investors to start dreaming of a Santa Claus rally. But, it could be important to note that historically, stocks usually do well in election year Decembers. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/19/04:
"Wheels of Fortune" -The Future of NASCAR
SUSIE GHARIB: The stock car racing season reaches its grand finale this weekend in Florida, where drivers will compete for the NASCAR Nextel cup and its $5 million top prize. It also marks another year of growth for NASCAR. In part three of our series, "wheels of fortune," Jeff Yastine looks at NASCAR's expansion from a southern sport into a national one and where NASCAR goes from here.
JEFF YASTINE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It is race night in Charlotte, North Carolina. 167,000 fans fill the grandstands and thousands more occupy the infield, all of them intent on watching 43 cars reaching top speeds of 180 miles per hour, for four hours, on a chilly October night. And watching it all from his personal skybox is track owner Bruton Smith. He and a partner built what is now called Lowe's motor speedway in Charlotte, back in 1960.
O. BRUTON SMITH, CHMN. & CEO, SPEEDWAY MOTORSPORTS: It is a moneymaker. It's big business and we generate huge dollars, economic base. We only keep about $0.10 on the dollar. The rest goes to all the hotels and all the other entities around but it's huge for the area. But if we can keep $0.10 on the dollar, we're doing a great job.
YASTINE: One of the key trends in NASCAR's growth in recent years has been the expansion of the tracks it uses. In past decades, most of its tracks were located in the south. But in recent years, it's been expanding, going as far west as Los Angeles and Las Vegas, as far south as Miami and also building a track in the Chicago area.
Executives also have their eye on future markets. NASCAR-Mexico, and NASCAR-Canada, were both set up to extend the NASCAR brand and racing events into both countries. There's even talk of building a track in the New York City area that could host NASCAR events - considered a crown jewel for NASCAR's expansion plans.
BRIAN FRANCE, CHAIRMAN & CEO, NASCAR: We did go to the Los Angeles market for a second time this year and next year we'll be in Phoenix for a second time, Dallas for a second time. So we'll be doing some of that in the future and New York is on the radar screen, as another tracks (ph) or a track that's trying to get built, and that would be a huge benefit to NASCAR for sure in the nation's number one media market.
YASTINE: But there are challenges. Fans are finding higher ticket prices at the track gates and the costs of sponsoring a race team have been rising as well. Some longtime fans have been alienated by all the changes, while others wonder if new fans will have the same loyalty. Still others question whether there's enough interest in the rest of the country to support further growth. The season already lasts 10 months with three-dozen races. NASCAR sees it differently.
MARK DYER, V.P. LICENSING, NASCAR: We did not have a full event on live TV until 1979. So we're a very young sport. We did not have a comprehensive broadcast TV package until four years ago, with Fox and NBC and our cable partners. So sometimes we chuckle when people say, well, have you peaked yet? There's no way we could have peaked yet, because we're so young among professional sports.
YASTINE: For NASCAR executives, the race is on for future growth, a race they're confident of winning. Jeff Yastine, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Charlotte, North Carolina.
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Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/19/04:
"Market Monitor"- Mark Leibovit of Vrtrader.com
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist for vrtrader.com. Welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT Mark. Good to see you.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Glad to be here Paul. Thank you.
KANGAS: In your recent visits with us, you have been a proponent of owning gold stocks, a strong proponent and since your first recommendations, they have done well indeed. Are you still bullish on that sector? Gold hit a 16-year high just last week.
LEIBOVIT: As I said in my previous appearance in April, big picture, I think we're in a 20-year up leg. We were down for 20, I think basically we're going to go up for a long time. It's going to be zigs and zags which you have to be worried about here. If the dollar suddenly starts staging a short-term rally, there might be a pullback. But we're cheap relative to where we've been and to sit here and predict numbers, whether it's going to $600 an ounce or some say 2 or 3,000 in many years is very tough to say, but there's a big catch up going on in commodities worldwide. There is inflation despite what we're hearing from the Feds. And it's just a matter of time as it continues to appreciate.
KANGAS: So you're still very bullish on the sector. Way back in September of 2003, you gave us four gold stocks which you didn't own, and I assume you don't now, but they did very well. Anglo Gold, Hecla (ph) Mining, which is also silver, Harmony Gold and ASA Limited. For those that want to stay around for the big picture, would you recommend holding those?
LEIBOVIT: Absolutely, and I would even add a name like Newmont Mining, which is really the blue chip and the new one we're going to talk about in a second.
KANGAS: That's right. Well, do you own any of these now?
LEIBOVIT: No, I don't own them personally, but I do recommend them in my news letter.
KANGAS: OK, now I would like to get your thoughts about the new exchange traded fund that just began trading on the New York exchange yesterday. It's called the Street Tracks Gold Trust, the symbol GLD. Give us your thoughts about this.
LEIBOVIT: Well, again, we're talking about bullion and where we think gold's going to do. It trades effectively for one tenth the price of what bullion is trading for. So if you think gold's going to $500 an ounce, It's a $44 stock now. It's going to go to 50.
KANGAS: So you multiply the 44 by 10 to get a rough idea where the price of gold is per ounce, right.
LEIBOVIT: It's a very cost effective way of getting into the gold market. You don't have to worry about hoarding coins. You don't have to worry about futures market or taking delivery. It's really a break through. The next thing that we need Paul though, is an ETF for the gold shares themselves, so hopefully that's coming next.
KANGAS: You think it will come along pretty soon?
LEIBOVIT: I'm hoping. I haven't heard about it yet, but in the meantime, we have to create a surrogate basket of gold stocks to emulate the XAU or the HUI or the GOX, which are the three gold indexes, but that would be very exciting.
KANGAS: We have a chart that's tracking the Philadelphia gold and silver index and we can see that it made quite a major move up since this past summer.
LEIBOVIT: Only beginning. We have measurements I would say 150, 160 on an intermediate basis. What does that mean? Six months, one year, year and a half. It's tough to make a exact time projection. So we're sitting around the 110 level now. We have a long way to go and then we may get higher projections well beyond that. So long term, looks terrific. In my previous interview I mentioned we may get a shakedown to the 70s in the XAU, which we did in the May period.
KANGAS: You made some very good calls there. I'll compliment you on that.
LEIBOVIT: Even "Timer Digest" during the course of the year had me ranked number one gold timer, but that was probably my call and learning to take profits, which we did during the year. But we set a base there in that 77-80 are and I think it will move up to at 120, 130 is not unreasonable here, 150 down the road.
KANGAS: Right, right. What about silver? Do you think it's going to follow the same general trend as gold?
LEIBOVIT: It should. They track together over the years Paul. I can't give you a number on silver, but we are in some silver stocks in terms of a recommendation and they all move together, platinum as well.
KANGAS: Right. OK. How about the market in general, where do you think it stands now? Your volume reversal survey should give us a pretty good idea.
LEIBOVIT: OK. Well, we took off like a rocket October 25. We went up fast and furiously as you know and we're in the course of a need retracement here. So let's talk about the S&P for example. It went from 1090 to 1190, I think we can pull back to about 1140. We dropped down to about 1170 or so today. So there's a little bit more coming here.
KANGAS: But you're not overly bullish, obviously?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, I don't know if this is a bull market or just a correction, technical correction of the three-year bear market we had. I think the S&P can get up to about 1250, 1260 in the course of the next year.
KANGAS: Do you have any recommendations, specific stocks that you'd buy in here? We just have 30 seconds left.
LEIBOVIT: I go for the ETFs, Paul. I like the exchange traded funds, minimizes risk. When you come in on a Tuesday morning and you see a Merck or a Coca-Cola or a Colgate down 20 percent, I would buy the Spyders, Diamonds.
KANGAS: Safety in diversity, I understand, I'm afraid our time has run out, but thanks very much Mark. Appreciate your comments.
LEIBOVIT: Thank you.
KANGAS: My guest, Mark Leibovit of vrtrader.com.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are available
on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks.
Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests
and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent
the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented
on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered
as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms
of use.
11/19/04:
"Commentary"-What's In A Name? Respect
SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator, Irving R. Levine, says it's time people called him that, Irving R. Levine, that is. He's the dean emeritus Lynn University and former chief economics correspondent of NBC News.
IRVING R. LEVINE, DEAN EMERITUS, INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, LYNN UNIVERSITY: The philosopher William James wrote that the deepest principle of human nature is the craving to be appreciated. These words of wisdom appear lost on many purveyors of goods and services. Does a company really appreciate you when its sales-pitch letter is addressed impersonally to "resident" or "occupant"?
Some enterprises make a feeble attempt at showing appreciation for your business by addressing you as "valued customer" or "preferred customer." But you know very well that the same letter is mailed to deadbeats, which depreciates the compliment somewhat. There are attempts at personalizing direct-mail advertising that fizzle, like the recent sales pitch addressing me as "dear investor," which, in the case of that particular company, was wishful thinking.
And then there was a mailing from Dominoes addressing me as "dear pizza lover." Dominoes, I am not a pizza lover. I am a no-fat chocolate frozen yogurt lover. I find attempts at intimacy off- putting in mailings that presume by calling me "Dear Irving." Look, we've never even met. Until we get to know each other better, we're not on a first-name basis. If you want my business, at least address me by my full name. I am Irving R. Levine.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/19/04:
"Last Word"-Why Maximus Is Nothing To Wine About
SUSIE GHARIB: And finally tonight, if you're looking for that something special to add to your holiday table next week, how about the world's largest wine bottle. The bottle, named Maximus will be auctioned at Sotheby's tomorrow. It's a Beringer vineyards 2001 private reserve Napa valley cabernet sauvignon. It measures 4 1/2 feet high, 4 1/2 feet around. It weighs 340 pounds and holds the equivalent of 1,200 glasses of wine. The Maximus was created for the Morton's steakhouse chain to mark its 25th anniversary. And Paul, proceeds from the sale will go to one of the nation's largest hunger-fighting organizations, Share Our Strength. And by the way, Sotheby's wine department estimates that the Maximus will sell for between $25,000 to $75,000.
KANGAS: A bottle that size, you need a jackhammer to pop the cork, a monster.
GHARIB: 1200 glasses. You'd have to have a lot of friends over for that.
KANGAS: That's for sure.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/19/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street sold off sharply this morning, plagued by everything from a spike-up in oil prices to a Goldman Sachs downgrade of the semiconductor equipment sector and of course that warning that we just mentioned from Fed chief Greenspan to prepare for higher interest rates. The broad sell off sent the Dow to a 112 point loss by noon, while the NASDAQ was off 27 points. Persistent weakness in the dollar against the yen and the euro kept stocks broadly lower for the rest of the day.
So the Dow Industrial Average closed down 115 2/3 points at 10,456.91. This week, the Dow fell twice and rose three times, had a net loss of 82 1/10 points. The NASDAQ Composite fell 33 2/3 points, ending at 2,070.63 today. It also fell twice and rose three times this week and had a net loss of 14.71 points. Standard & Poor's 500 down 13.21, ending at 1170.34 today.
Over in the bond market, the 10-year note fell 24/32 and lifting the yield to 4.21 percent.
Big board volume leader on 24.8 million shares, Lucent Technologies (LU) down $0.12.
Followed by Pfizer (PFE) with a $0.54 loss.
Mylan Laboratories (MYL) bucked that trend, up $1.72 and traded as high as $20 a share on news its big investor, Carl Icahn, is bidding $20 a share on the takeover and meanwhile, he said that Mylan's offer to buy King Pharmaceutical an egregious mistake.
General Electric (GE) down $0.56.
Citigroup (C) fell $0.76, fifth in big board volume.
UNUMProvident (UNM) moved up $1.62. Some of the company's insurance units have settled with regulators on various disability claims.
NorTel Networks (NT) $0.03 drop there.
EMC Corp. (EMC) fell $0.36.
And so did Motorola (MOT).
Time Warner (TWX) down $0.09, tenth in big board volume.
Disney (DIS) edged up $0.17. After the close yesterday, as we reported, fourth quarter earnings at Disney were $0.19, a penny above the Street estimate and today, Prudential Securities repeated an "overweight" rating on the stock.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down $1.15. Goldman Sachs downgraded it from "outperform" to "in line" as it did most of the semiconductor equipment stocks as I mentioned earlier.
And then Actuant (ATU) up $2.15. The company will acquire Key Components Incorporated for $315 million and Actuant says that should add $0.40 a share to its earnings in the first 12 months after the acquisition.
MAXIMUS (MMS) up $2.51. The consulting firm was upgraded by Legg Mason from a "hold" to a "buy" recommendation.
And then JLG Industries (JLG) up, down $1.76. Company had a first quarter loss of $0.20 a share versus an earnings of $0.01 a year ago and today, CS First Boston downgraded the stock from "outperform" to just a "neutral" rating.
Brilliance China Automotive (CBA), the auto maker, down $2.82. Pricewaterhousecooper has resigned as the company's auditor.
Then we see Hughes Supply (HUG) rising $2.12. Third quarter earnings jumped 90 percent to $0.54 a share and that was $0.02 above the Wall Street estimate.
And finally a really high-priced issue, White Mountains Insurance (WTM) up $71 to 629. Standard & Poor's rating service has revised the outlook for the company from "stable" to "positive."
NASDAQ's most active, Microsoft (MSFT) fell $0.21.
Intel (INTC) $0.64 drop.
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) moving up $0.45. After the close yesterday as we reported, the company named Mel Karmizen (ph) or Karmizen as its new chief executive officer.
Google (GOOG) up $1.86. After the close however, the stock fell $1.50 on word that co-founder Larry Page (ph) and Serge Grinn (ph), along with CEO Eric Schmidt (ph), planned to sell collectively 16.2 million shares over the next 18 months for diversification purposes.
OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) down $6.09. The company did get FDA approval for its new cancer treatment called Tarciva (ph), but there's concern among analysts about pricing and competitive pressures.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.51 loss.
TASER International (TASR) down nearly $6 on profit taking.
$0.66 drop in Applied Materials (AMAT).
Apple Computer (AAPL) $0.22 loss there.
And eBay (EBAY) down $2.16.
KMG Chemicals (KMGB), look at that move, up $4.76. First quarter earnings more than doubled, $0.09 versus only $0.04 last year. Sales jumped 62 percent.
And Electronics Boutique (ELBO) a $3.09 loss there. Piper Jaffray brokerage downgraded it from "outperform" to just a "market perform" rating due to the rather high valuation.
And an initial public offering today, PortalPlayer (PLAY) was offered to the public, 6 ¼ million shares priced at $17, opened at $25.60, the high of the day $27.61. This company makes components for Apple Computer's iPod.
And those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be
posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
11/19/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10456.91 -115.64 - 1.1
HIGH 10573.74
LOW 10438.58
NASDAQ COMP. 2070.63 -33.65 -1.6
HIGH 2102.60
LOW 2070.63
VOLUME 1,524.0
PREVIOUS 1,460.8
UP VOLUME 365.2
DOWN VOLUME 1,152.6
DOW TRANSPORTS 3567.65 -44.57 - 1.2
DOW UTILITIES 324.79 -.61 - .2
CLOSING TICK +399
S&P 500 1170.34 -13.21 - 1.1
S&P 100 560.44 -5.53 - 1.0
MIDCAP 400 627.23 -7.39 - 1.2
REUTERS/CRB 288.98 +.96 + .3
NYSE COMPOSITE 6947.19 -55.72 - .8
VALUE LINE 384.08 -3.86 - 1.0
RUSSELL 2000 615.51 -6.55 - 1.1
DJW 5000 11494.00 -114.55 - 1.0
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.375%
Oct. 15,2009 99 21/32 -14/32 + 3.57
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2014 100 11/32 -24/32 + 4.21
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 107 4/32 -1 8/32 + 4.89
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1757.04 -12.79
DOW CLOSE 10456.91 -115.64 - 1.1
ADVANCES 949
DECLINES 2391
NEW HIGHS 134
NEW LOWS 11
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
LU Lucent Tech 4.01 -.12 -2.9
PFE Pfizer 27.23 -.54 -1.9
MYL Mylan Labs 18.88 +1.72 +10.0
GE GE 36.27 -.56 -1.5
C Citigroup 45.15 -.76 -1.7
UNM UnumProvident 15.35 +1.62 +11.8
NT Nortel Networks 3.30 -.03 -.9
EMC EMC Corp 13.48 -.36 -2.6
MOT Motorola 17.94 -.36 -2.0
TWX Time Warner 17.42 -.09 -.5
NASDAQ CLOSE 2070.63 - 33.65 - 1.6
VOLUME 2,040.4
PREVIOUS 2,231.0
ADVANCES 1007
DECLINES 2118
NASDAQ ACTIVES
MSFT Microsoft 26.86 -.21 -.8
INTC Intel 24.16 -.64 -2.6
SIRI Sirius Satellite 5.17 +.45 +9.5
GOOG Google 169.40 +1.86 +1.1
OSIP OSI Pharmaceutical 58.16 -6.09 -9.5
CSCO Cisco Systems 19.01 -.51 -2.6
TASR Taser Intl 52.16 -5.94 -10.2
AMAT Applied Matl 16.99 -.66 -3.7
AAPL Apple Computer 55.17 -.22 -.4
EBAY eBay 108.34 -2.16 -2.0
AMEX CLOSE 1364.81 - .55 - .0
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 104.57 -1.09 -1.0
QQQ NASDAQ 100 38.68 -.61 -1.6
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 117.42 -1.32 -1.1
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
DIS Disney 26.66 +.17 +.6
AMD Advance Micro 20.81 -1.15 -5.2
ATU Actuant 46.90 +2.15 +4.8
MMS Maximus 31.01 +2.51 +8.8
JLG JLG Industries 17.30 -1.76 -9.2
CBA Brilliance China 19.93 -2.82 -12.4
HUG Hughes Supply 32.26 +2.12 +7.0
WTM White Mountain 629.00 +71.00 +12.7
KMGB KMG Chemicals 8.65 +4.76 +122.4
ELBO Electronic Boutiq 38.26 -3.09 -7.5
PLAY PortalPlayer 25.80 +8.80 +51.8
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