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Program: Tuesday, November 30, 2004

The First Secretary of Homeland Security Calls It Quits
Investors Are Taking A Shine To Gold
One On One with O.E.C.D. Senior Economist, Vincent Koen
China's Middle Class Is Getting Revved Up
Commentary-The Delicate Balance Known As Supply & Demand
Last Word-H & R Block Puts Ken Jennings In Jeopardy
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
Market Stats

 

11/30/04: The First Secretary of Homeland Security Calls It Quits

PAUL KANGAS: An alert today from Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge: he's resigning his job, a job created after the September 11 terrorist attacks. He's the seventh departure from President Bush's second-term cabinet. Ridge will be remembered for setting up the color-coded terror alert system. But as Stephanie Woods reports, the department he leaves behind still faces challenges.

STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Tom Ridge's biggest challenge as the first secretary of homeland security was the huge task of folding 22 government agencies into one. President Bush first appointed Ridge in the wake of the September 11 attacks. Ridge told reporters the U.S. is now safer.

TOM RIDGE, SECRETARY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY: I'm confident that the terrorists are aware that from the curb to the cockpit we've got additional security measures that didn't exist a couple of years ago, that from port to port, we do things differently with maritime security.

WOODS: This year, the Department of Homeland Security has a $40 billion budget. So far, the agency has granted more than $18 million to state and local governments to better prepare for emergencies. Analysts expect a shift under the next homeland security chief, with more of the money going to business rather than government.

BRETT LAMBERT, DFI INTERNATIONAL: I would expect to see an increased pace of expenditures for both the large defense contractors, the traditional defense contractors, but more interestingly some of the non-traditional providers, particularly in areas like biomedical defense.

WOODS: Possible successors to Ridge include his top deputy, Asa Hutchinson, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or California Congressman Chris Cox, who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee. Whoever it is, analysts say the next secretary should have a good working relationship with Congress in order to prevent the department from becoming a haven for pork barrel projects. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.

Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: Investors Are Taking A Shine To Gold

SUSIE GHARIB: Also from Washington today, a new government report showing the economy grew faster than previously thought in the third quarter. Thanks to strong consumer spending, the gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.9 percent in the quarter, up .2 percent from the first estimate. But consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month to 90.5 according to the Conference Board. Even though economists were forecasting an increase, they don't expect an impact on the economy.

WILLIAM DUDLEY, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, GOLDMAN SACHS: What's more important to me is what consumers are doing as opposed to what consumers are feeling and we can see that in the third quarter GDP figures, consumer spending rose 5.1 percent which is a very robust result. So even though confidence seems to be weakening a bit, consumers are still going out and spending.

GHARIB: There's also a lot of confidence in gold these days. Even though gold prices fell $2.60 today to $453.20 an ounce, they have gained nearly $22 this month alone. But investors are now wondering if gold has peaked or is there still room for a rally? Suzanne Pratt talked to the experts and got some answers.

SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In the last few months, gold has quietly been regaining its luster as an investment vehicle. Even with today's pullback, the precious metal is up about 7 percent this year, trading at a 16-year high. Experts say there are a number of reasons for gold's newfound popularity. First and foremost is the dollar.

VINCENT YACAVINO, INDEPENDENT GOLD TRADER, COMEX: The prime mover of the gold market recently is the fact that the dollar got weak and the European community doesn't seem to be interested in coming into on any intervention.

PRATT: Experts also point to rising oil prices and growing demand for gold jewelry in India, China and the Middle East. On top of those factors is the recent introduction of the first gold-backed exchange traded fund, which trades on the big board. Since its launch November 18, the gold ETF has gained only marginally, but has attracted billions of new dollars into gold. The fund lets people invest in gold bullion without taking delivery of the actual commodity. Experts say the tremendous interest it has generated has helped push gold prices to new highs.

JOE FOSTER, GOLD FUND MGR., VAN ECK ASSOCIATES: There's a limited number of ways you can invest in gold. And as we see that fund, I think it broadens the gold market and it opens it up to a broader range of investors. So, it just creates an additional vehicle for investors to access the gold market.

WOODS: Still, many traders are nervous about gold's ability to move significantly higher. While most agree a correction is need, they are worried prices will level off. Others, however, believe it's just a matter of time before the yellow metal hits $500 an ounce.

JAMES STEELE, COMMODITIES ANALYST, REFCO: Longer term, the market is going higher. I think medium to longer, probably $480. The $500 mark certainly could be attained into 2005 if we continue to see a weaker dollar.

WOODS: One other factor helping to rejuvenate interest in gold is geopolitical tensions. Because such global instability is unlikely to go away anytime soon, many experts believe gold prices will stay elevated. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.

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Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: One On One with O.E.C.D. Senior Economist, Vincent Koen

SUSIE GHARIB: A global economic think tank isn't holding out much hope for strong growth next year worldwide. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said today the world's industrial powers are expected to grow only 2.9 percent in 2005, down from 3.6 percent projected growth for this year. The reason: rising oil prices and a falling dollar. Earlier, I talked with the OECD's senior economist, Vincent Koen, in Paris and asked him to elaborate on the outlook for 2005.

VINCENT KOEN, SENIOR ECONOMIST, ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION & DEVELOPMENT: For 2005 we're cautiously optimistic. We see growth remaining at or slightly above potential in the U.S., in China as well and we see growth recovering in Japan and in (INAUDIBLE) after some slowdown in the course of 2004 due to the oil shock.

GHARIB: Mr. Koen, we have seen oil prices surge this year. And here in the states, we get a forecast that in 2005 it could be as low as $40 and some people are saying as high as $70. What is your outlook for oil prices for 2005?

KOEN: We don't predict oil prices, nor do we predict exchange rates. We have the technical assumption which is oil prices at around 45, $50 per barrel throughout the projection period, so it's in the lower part of the range that you cite and we recognize that if oil prices were to increase much further above this level, this would have additional negative effects, depressing activity and pushing up inflation, both in the U.S. and more broadly in the global economy.

GHARIB: As you know, there is quite a bit of concern in the U.S. about the economic consequences of a weak American dollar. From your perspective, where do you see the dollar trading in the new year?

KOEN: Well, as I mentioned, we don't try to second guess markets, foreign exchange markets and we don't try to forecast the dollar. We just keep it wherever it is when we freeze our projections. In this case we froze them at around current levels for the dollar, so that means that the dollar is not excessively weak in the long run perspective, although it's a bit on the weak side. The difference is which currency you're comparing it to, if you look at vis-à- vis the euro, the yen or vis-à-vis some other Asian currencies. But the point is that the huge current account imbalance building up in the U.S., which has now reached historically high levels of 5 ¾ percent of GDP as the latest statistic, this current account imbalance is a serious worry. Chairman Greenspan has recently more than alluded to it and it may trigger further movement in the exchange rate.

GHARIB: As you mention about the trade deficit here in the states, one way out of it would be the ability to sell more American made goods overseas. From what you know about, well, how would you characterize consumer confidence and consumer demand for these kind of products?

KOEN: Well, consumer confidence is fragile in most OECD countries these days partly because it has been affected by the oil shock which was unexpected. So buyers around the world for American goods are not all eager to pile up those U.S. exports. Nevertheless, I should point out that U.S. exports on the whole on average are doing quite well and project them to continue to grow quite rapidly, especially with a relatively weak dollar.

GHARIB: Do you anticipate that central banks, international central bank, will be cutting your interest rates to stimulate growth in the new year?

KOEN: Well, Japan cannot cut any further. In the (INAUDIBLE), interest rates are already very low. So I would say that they are already a commodity and if the ECB keeps them low it will be a form of stimulus. In England we've seen the Bank of England raise their rates, but they may stop doing so in light of the slowdown in output. In the U.S., the Fed has embarked on a measured withdrawal of stimulus. The issue is at what pace it will continue, not whether it will continue. Central banks have done a lot in recent years to support growth. They continue to do a lot and core inflation is low so they've been able to do this, but we cannot ask them to do much more, I believe.

GHARIB: Well, we're going to have to leave it there. Mr. Koen, thank you very much for speaking with NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

KOEN: My pleasure. Thank you.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: China's Middle Class Is Getting Revved Up

SUSIE GHARIB: Just a few decades ago, the idea of a middle class was unheard of in a communist country, a country like China. But today, that Asian nation has a growing middle class and it is beginning to exert a growing influence on the economy there. Tonight, from Beijing, reporter Steve Nettleton takes a closer look at the changes now underway.

STEVE NETTLETON, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: At this VW showroom in Beijing, shoppers come to dream about what they could soon be driving. More than four million new cars were sold in China last year, making it the world's third largest car market. Along with owning an apartment, buying a car has become synonymous with moving into the middle class. According to BNP Paribas Peregrine, some 10 to 12 percent of Chinese belong to the middle class, but it says they account for 40 to 50 percent of the country's consumption growth. And with researchers projecting the middle class could balloon to more than 300 million people by 2010, this emerging group may soon become an engine for economic growth. What this means for China's social and political fabric is a subject of wide debate. The author of the BNP study predicts the middle class will at first stick to the status quo.

CHEN XINGDONG, CHIEF ECONOMIST/CHINA, BNP PARIBAS PEREGRINE: From a government point of view, the middle class is a stabilizer for society. The middle class wants to see reform, evolution. Middle class does not want to have revolution. So the middle class basically they want to move ahead step by step. They do not want to change overnight.

NETTLETON: Some researchers say the middle class is still too small a sector to have a major impact on society.

TRANSLATION OF: MAO YUSHI, CHAIRMAN, UNIRULE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICS: The middle class is not a main component of society, he says, therefore Chinese society is not a stable one. It looks like a pyramid in terms of income structure. The low income composes the larger part of society, while the rich take a small percentage.

NETTLETON: Xiao Guang An was once a chef at a Beijing restaurant. Now he's unemployed and can't find a new job. He has watched as China's development boom has razed his neighborhood and replaced it with glistening new office buildings, but he says there's no place for him in the dynamic new economy.

TRANSLATION OF: XIAO GUANG AN UNEMPLOYED CHEF: If your work ability is not strong enough, he says, then a doctor's degree cannot guarantee a good job. Even if your work ability is strong, you still need opportunity. There are many young talents working in low positions nowadays.

NETTLETON: With tens of millions of people leaving the countryside for the cities in search of a better life, competition to reach the middle class is growing tighter, and the divide between the rich in the cities and the poor in the provinces is getting wider.

YUSHI: Now we see two countries in China, a rural country and an urban country. Rural people pay a high cost to migrate to the cities. Just like the Chinese need a visa to go to America, the rural people need a city ID to live in the cities.

NETTLETON: The Chinese government has started talking about improving the incomes of rural workers and nursing the growth of the middle class. But analysts say there's still a way to go before the middle class becomes a social majority and takes the wheel of China's political and economic future. Steve Nettleton, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Beijing.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: Commentary-The Delicate Balance Known As Supply & Demand

SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight's commentator takes a look at one of the basic principles of economics: the law of supply and demand and he says it applies even in the most ordinary of circumstances. Here's Tom Stewart, editor of the "Harvard Business Review."

TOM STEWART, EDITOR, HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW: Last week, my wife and I went shopping for some electronics. It was a tale of two stores: one rushed, crowded, with salespeople who couldn't help because they were already trying to help other people and, at the end, out of stock on the biggest item. So we left, and just down the street, we found what we wanted, and the big item was on sale. Our first-choice store lost out on 1,000 bucks. You never want your customer to find an empty shelf, but at the same time, you don't want to hold more inventory than you absolutely need. That's why supply-chain management is delicate, gritty and getting a lot of top- executive attention. Customer satisfaction and, in the end, profits, depend on how well you manage supply chains. Hau Lee, a Stanford professor and one of the most innovative thinkers about the topic, says supply chains must be triple A -- agile, adaptable and aligned from end to end. That's a wide, strategic focus and a purchasing department can't do that. Top executives must. They must because of what I found on my shopping trip. The competitor is just down the street or a couple of mouse clicks away or his catalogue is in your customer's mailbox. Jeffrey Rayport, a consultant with the Monitor Group, observes that companies present many faces to the customer and each one must be as good as the others. That's a daunting management challenge. Over the next weeks of holiday shopping, as we all head out to the stores, the web or the phone, we'll see which companies are up to the task. I'm Tom Stewart.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/29/04: Last Word-H & R Block Puts Ken Jennings In Jeopardy

SUSIE GHARIB: And finally tonight, on the topic business and industry, here's the answer. Most of this firm's 70,000 seasonal, white collar employees work only four months a year. And the question? Well, the question was wrong for the long-running winner on the TV show "Jeopardy." And getting it wrong snapped Ken Jennings' winning streak at 74 games and $2.5 million in cash. Jennings hits the wall on the show tonight. So if you don't want to know the correct question, turn the TV volume down right about now. And Paul I'll bet you know the answer. It's: "what is H&R Block?"

KANGAS: H&R Block wants Jennings to remember it in the future, Susie, so it's offering him free tax preparation services for life and boy is he going to need it for tax year 2004.

GHARIB: $2.5 million, he sure will.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"

PAUL KANGAS: Stocks opened mixed, with the Dow rising five points on that better than expected GDP number, while the NASDAQ Index fell two. But then the consumer confidence slide sent the market into a mid-morning sell-off. At noon, the Dow was off 45 points and the NASDAQ down five and that's pretty much where the day ended as the Dow Industrial Average came in with a closing loss of 47.88 at 10,428.02. The NASDAQ Composite off just over 10 points to 2,096.81. Standard & Poor's 500 down exactly 4.75 points at 1,173.82. Over in the bond market, the 10-year note fell 8/32, putting the yield up to 4.35 percent.

Big board volume leader on 37.1 million shares today, Pfizer (PFE) moving up $0.44. The company will seek FDA approval early next year for an inhaled insulin drug called Exubera (ph).

Then Wal-Mart (WMT) down $1.09, just heard the story.

Calpine (CPN) moved up $0.24. The company was awarded a contract to operate and maintain two power plants in Indiana and also along with GE, the company agreed to build a 775 megawatt natural gas-fired power plant in North America, but it didn't get any more specific than that, where it was.

Lucent Technologies (LU) a $0.06 drop.

General Electric (GE) moved up $0.06. It was fifth in big board volume.

Then NorTel Networks (NT) gained a nickel.

Time Warner (TWX) down $0.11.

Citigroup (C) $0.21 drop.

Qwest Communications (Q) up $0.19.

And News Corp. (NWS) B stock lost $0.02, tenth in volume.

Allergan (AGN) down $3.27. As I touched on, there is a report that a couple have been hospitalized with botulism poisoning after getting Botox injections, but the company is investigating the validity of that report.

King Pharmaceuticals (KG) edged up $0.86. Perry Corporation, which has a stake in this company and Mylan Labs, supports Mylan's takeover of King Pharmaceuticals, but investor Carl Icahn who owns nearly 10 percent of Mylan says it's a mistake for Mylan to try to take over King. It's like a soap opera going on.

Donaldson Company (DCI) manufacturer of engine products, down $2.97. First quarter earnings were a bit higher, $0.31 versus last year's $0.28 but that was $0.02 below the Street estimate and the company blamed higher steel prices for that shortfall.

Barrick Gold (ABX) off $0.80. Gold stocks on the weak side today. UBS however, did downgrade Barrick from "buy" to "neutral" and of course you saw earlier February gold in New York was down $2.60 an ounce.

Aeropostale (ARO) off $1.16. A lot of the apparel retailers weak today, but Prudential downgraded this one in particular from "over weight" to just a "neutral" weighting, rating.

And then RadioShack (RSH) off $1.91. Lehman Brothers has a "sell" rating on this stock, citing the company's just mediocre sales over the holiday weekend.

And Benchmark Electronics (BHE) losing $1.82. Bank America downgraded it from "buy" to "neutral" on a valuation basis.

NASDAQ's most active, Intel (INTC) lost $0.68.

Followed by Microsoft (MSFT) with a $0.04 gain.

Google (GOOG) edging up $0.93.

Apple Computer (AAPL) down $1.39, a little profit taking after sharp recent gains.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell $0.19.

TASER International (TASR) up nearly $2. Now this is the first day of trading on the 2 for 1 split stock and also the company disputing, as you might imagine, the human rights group Amnesty International's call for suspending sales of the company's stun gun.

eBay (EBAY) down $0.35.

Dell (DELL) $0.30 loss there.

Sirius Satellite (SIRI) some minor profit taking, $0.06 loss.

And Applied Materials (AMAT), tenth in volume was down $0.30.

Syneron Medical (ELOS) plunging $10.15. The FDA has delayed approval for the company's cellulite treatment called VelaSmooth.

And over on the American exchange, a major loser, VendingData (VNX) off $1.11 or 37 percent. A Nevada district court has enjoined the use in the United States of the company's PokerOne shuffler for dealing card hands, because of a patent dispute with Shuffle Master Corporation.

And those are the stocks in the news tonight.


Nightly Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2004 Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.

11/30/04: Market Stats


                                      NET    PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE DOW CLOSE 10428.02 -47.88 - .5 HIGH 10483.14 LOW 10428.02 NASDAQ COMP. 2096.81 -10.06 -.5 HIGH 2107.45 LOW 2096.81 VOLUME 1,554.4 PREVIOUS 1,378.1 UP VOLUME 649.9 DOWN VOLUME 879.3 DOW TRANSPORTS 3658.71 +8.58 + .2 DOW UTILITIES 325.79 -4.73 - 1.4 CLOSING TICK +440 S&P 500 1173.82 -4.75 - .4 S&P 100 557.47 -2.68 - .5 MIDCAP 400 637.27 -1.76 - .3 REUTERS/CRB 290.94 -.16 - .1 NYSE COMPOSITE 7005.72 -26.51 - .4 VALUE LINE 390.05 -1.38 - .4 RUSSELL 2000 633.77 -.69 - .1 DJW 5000 11568.54 -41.26 - .4 U.S. TREASURIES 5-YEAR NOTE 3.375% Oct. 15,2009 99 4/32 +1/32 + 3.70 10-YEAR NOTE 4.25% Aug. 15,2014 99 6/32 -8/32 + 4.35 30-YEAR NOTE 5.375% Feb. 15, 2031 105 13/32 -17/32 + 5.00 LEHMAN BROS. LONG BOND INDEX 1731.26 -5.95 DOW CLOSE 10428.02 -47.88 - .5 ADVANCES 1406 DECLINES 1932 NEW HIGHS 283 NEW LOWS 11 NET PERCENT NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE PFE Pfizer 27.77 +.44 +1.6 WMT Wal-Mart Stores 52.06 -1.09 -2.1 CPN Calpine 3.88 +.24 +6.6 LU Lucent Tech 3.93 -.06 -1.5 GE GE 35.36 +.06 +.2 NT Nortel Networks 3.47 +.05 +1.5 TWX Time Warner 17.71 -.11 -.6 C Citigroup 44.75 -.21 -.5 Q Qwest Comm 4.00 +.19 +5.0 NWS News Corp "B" 18.09 -.02 -.1 NASDAQ CLOSE 2096.81 - 10.06 - .5 VOLUME 1,900.3 PREVIOUS 1,852.7 ADVANCES 1417 DECLINES 1720 NASDAQ ACTIVES INTC Intel 22.38 -.68 -3.0 MSFT Microsoft 26.81 +.04 +.2 GOOG Google 181.98 +.93 +.5 AAPL Apple Computer 67.05 -1.39 -2.0 CSCO Cisco Systems 18.75 -.19 -1.0 TASR Taser Intl 27.44 +1.99 +7.8 EBAY eBay 112.30 -.35 -.3 DELL Dell Inc 40.52 -.30 -.7 SIRI Sirius Satellite 6.63 -.06 -.9 AMAT Applied Matl 16.64 -.30 -1.8 AMEX CLOSE 1406.08 - 2.70 - .2 INDEX SHARES DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 104.33 -.14 -.1 QQQ NASDAQ 100 39.15 -.04 -.1 SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 117.89 +.06 +.1 STOCKS IN THE NEWS AGN Allergan 73.50 -3.27 -4.3 KG King Pharma 12.45 +.86 +7.4 DCI Donaldson Co 31.00 -2.97 -8.7 ABX Barrick Gold 24.59 -.80 -3.2 ARO Aeropostale 28.50 -1.16 -3.9 RSH RadioShack 31.57 -1.91 -5.7 BHE Benchmark Elect 35.05 -1.82 -4.9 ELOS Syneron Medical 27.05 -10.15 -27.3 VNX Vendingdata 1.89 -1.11 -37.0

 

 

 

 

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