12/09/04:
The Outlook For Oil & OPEC
SUSIE
GHARIB: Oil prices rebounded for a second straight day on
concerns that OPEC may slash output. January crude futures rose $0.59 to
$42.53 in New York trading. OPEC ministers meet tomorrow in Cairo, where
they`ll decide on production levels for the next three months. Several are
lobbying the cartel to cut daily production by half a million barrels. But
as Stephanie Woods reports, it`s not just OPEC that`s worrying the oil
markets.
STEPHANIE WOODS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Traders in the oil
pits sent crude prices higher today in advance of tomorrow`s OPEC meeting.
RAYMOND CARBONE, OIL TRADER, PARAMOUNT OPTIONS: I think right now we are at
the mercy of OPEC to a degree. We are losing our North Sea Bretton
production. Although the U.S. still produces quite a bit of oil, the other
sources of oil outside of OPEC are withering away.
WOODS: But demand is growing. The Energy Information Administration is
forecasting U.S. petroleum demand will grow 37 percent in the next two
decades. That means instead of importing 56 percent of our oil as we do
now, we would have to import 68 percent. Still, the agency says the oil we
will import then should be cheaper than the oil we import now.
GUY CARUSO, ADMINISTRATOR, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION: Our view is
that these prices will come down, partly because it will attract supplies
from other sources at these prices, but it takes time. It`s an investment
issue.
WOODS: Still, the agency says there are some factors that could affect
demand. Currently, two-thirds of oil is used in transportation.
Eventually new hybrid cars and trucks and conservation measures will lower
demand for gasoline. Translated at the pump EIA expects an average price
per gallon of $2.00 in 2005, falling to $1.50 in 2010 and $1.60 in 2025.
But it is the near term that worries OPEC. So far this winter has been a
warm one, keeping the demand for heating oil weak. With crude oil prices
high, OPEC is pumping flat out, which means more good news from Mother
Nature could send prices sharply lower, just what OPEC wants to avoid.
ROBERT EBEL, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: They have run out
of spare producing capacity. They can produce right up to the maximum,
maximize their earnings and yet when they do that, prices still stay high.
So they`ve got the best of both worlds and the question is how can they
keep the best of both worlds?
WOODS: Some OPEC members say there`s an informal agreement to cut
production early next year. But experts say, watch what OPEC actually
does, not what it says it`ll do. Stephanie Woods, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT,
Washington.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/09/04:
Cyber Sites Are Spinning Irresistable Web Deals
PAUL KANGAS: With just 15 shopping days left until Christmas, many Americans are
finally getting serious about their holiday spending. Stores and malls are
getting crowded, so the Internet continues to draw its fair share of
shoppers. But while the experts are predicting a solid year for online
sales, online sales growth is slowing. Suzanne Pratt explains.
SUZANNE PRATT, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: It just wouldn`t feel
like the holidays without free shipping, exclusive online deals and in some
cases even complimentary gift wrapping. Internet retailers have been
decking their web sites, doing their best to draw in shoppers. For the
most part it seems to be working.
According to Jupiter Research, online shoppers are on track to spend nearly
$22 billion in November and December. That`s an impressive 19 percent jump
over the same period last year. Nevertheless, online sales growth has
slowed significantly this year, when you consider the 31 percent increase
shoppers rang up in 2003.
So what gives? Are Americans simply tiring of the net? Or are they using it
more for price checks rather than purchases? Experts say neither. Instead,
some believe fewer new households are shopping online. Others blame
softness in the overall economy, the same factor that is hampering holiday
sales at bricks and mortar retailers.
STEVE WEINSTEIN, INTERNET ANALYST, PACIFIC CREST SECURITIES: We also are
seeing a somewhat weaker retail environment in general. We have had higher
fuel costs, which impacts your consumers. They have less money in their
wallet. E-commerce is starting to go fairly mainstream so there`s some
impact of those variables now in hitting their overall growth rate.
PRATT: And even though online sales growth is slowing this holiday season,
many experts believe the outlook for e-commerce is still quite promising.
Not only is online shopping still less than 5 percent of overall retail
sales, but new broadband applications are improving the shopping
experience. On top of that, for some retailers, online sales have become
more of a complement to traditional sales and less of a threat.
PATTI FREEMAN EVANS, ANALYST, JUPITER RESEARCH: Consumers will shop in
whatever channel seems to make sense to them in whatever time. And so
retailers are working towards being available in store, available by
catalogue, available by phone and available on line. So that whatever the
consumers needs best is where they are going to be.
PRATT: By many calculations, e-commerce is expected to grow by 20 percent a
year for the next few years. That`s not too shabby when you consider that
overall retail sales barely grow at all. Suzanne Pratt, NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT, New York.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/09/04:
Beware The Holiday Shopping Abyss
SUSIE GHARIB: Now that we`re in the thick of the holiday
shopping season, some food for thought as you`re happily spending.
Debt specialists point out that 54 percent of us are still
paying off last year`s gifts. Add on all the new purchases
this year, and, well, you get the picture. Tonight, some words
of wisdom from our home economist Brett Graff on how to prevent
another post holiday hangover.
BRETT GRAFF, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Ah, the
crisp air of the holidays, throngs of people filling the malls,
lines at the registers and near chaos in the parking lot.
Everyone driving themselves crazy finding those perfect gifts.
But how do we stop all this holiday cheer from sending us
into near bankruptcy? Most of us are already carrying revolving
debt anywhere from $2,500 to $8,000. So convincing ourselves,
no, no, no, I`ll be sensible this year really!" is likely
just a few credit card swipes away from another broken financial
new year`s resolution.
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: Whatever I see I want to buy I`m going
to buy.
GRAFF: And that`s fine or are you going to regret it in January?
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: I`ll regret it in January like I always
do every year.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: It`s a big budget every year that gets
bigger and bigger and bigger at 20 percent credit.
GRAFF: Do you have a budget?
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: My husband does.
GRAFF: Do you follow the budget?
UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN: No but he doesn`t know that.
GRAFF: Now here`s what home finance guru`s suggest. Agree
on a limit with gifts for your family or buy something small,
but personal and include a handwritten note or buy a token
gift and surprise them with the real present once all the
big sales start after the holiday. And my personal favorite,
buy only things that fit into the Christmas stocking.
UNIDENTIFIED MAN: I have teenage girls. They`re way past
that trick right now.
GRAFF: The National Retail Federation, which clearly did
not include my husband in its research, predicts the average
American adult consumer will spend $700 on gifts this holiday.
And Cardweb, which monitors credit card spending, anticipates
most of that shopping will end up on our plastic, $130 billion
worth. Despite our best efforts, those ho-ho-ho`s will turn
into no-no-no`s come January. So let`s admit the red we`ll
be seeing won`t just be the glow of the lights we never took
down. And after it`s over and the "had to have it" hangover
is pounding, now what? Here`s some advice from debt specialist
Howard Dvorkin.
HOWARD DVORKIN, FOUNDER, CONSOLIDATED CREDIT: The first thing
you do is you need to sit down at the kitchen table and go
through and spread out your bills and on a piece of paper,
write down who you owe, what you owe, what the interest rates
are. That`s the first step, knowing where you are. Then you
can device a plan to get yourself out.
GRAFF: So when you hear the holiday music piping through
those retail speakers and you`re overcome with the warmth
of holiday giving, remember, the chill sneaking through is
likely from those impending January bills. Brett Graff, NIGHTLY
BUSINESS REPORT, home economist.
To Learn More about this topic, click
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Nightly Business Report
transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program
is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at
a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are
their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community
Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/09/04:
"Commentary"-Washington Math Gets Even More Fuzzy
PAUL KANGAS:
Here`s a look now at what`s happening for tomorrow. November`s
producer price index comes out and the University of Michigan`s preliminary
consumer sentiment reading for December.
Tonight`s commentator says when it comes to Washington, often times the math
just doesn`t add up. Here`s Allan Sloan, Wall Street editor of "Newsweek."
ALLAN SLOAN, WALL STREET EDITOR, NEWSWEEK: You`ve got to love how
politicians in Washington talk one way but act another. It`s do as I say,
not do as I do. After the Enron scandal broke three years ago, Congress
passed laws designed to stop companies from issuing phony numbers. But
Congress never cleaned up its own budget act. And now, with the Social
Security debate heating up, there`s an attempt to make Washington math even
more ridiculous than it already is.
People pushing personal Social Security accounts don`t want to just cook
the books. They want to burn them beyond all recognition. The idea is to
not charge the Federal budget for the money that would get diverted from
the Treasury into personal accounts. The argument is that these accounts
would reduce the government`s Social Security spending in the future, so
they`re really an investment, not an expense. But every dollar going into
these accounts would be another dollar the government has to borrow.
The foreign central banks keeping Uncle Sam afloat would know about this
bogus math, of course. The only ones who might be fooled would be American
taxpayers who might think the deficit is smaller than it really is.
Washington already understates the deficit by more than $200 billion a year
with misleading accounting for Federal trust funds. But who`s counting?
Certainly not the politicians who insist on honest numbers for
shareholders, but want to peddle phony numbers to taxpayers. Washington
math, I just love it. I`m Allan Sloan.
Nightly Business Report
transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program
is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at
a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are
their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community
Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/09/04:
"Last Word"-Holiday Hazards
SUSIE GHARIB: Finally tonight, you`d better watch out: decking the halls can be
dangerous. The Centers for Disease Control says 5,800 people end up in
emergency rooms in the U.S. during the holidays and that`s due to
decorating injuries. The most serious are falls from roofs and ladders
while putting up or taking down, lights. But there are indoor mishaps as
well. People get hurt tripping over ornaments or falling off couches and
chairs while trimming trees. Men are more likely to get hurt than women.
They make up for 58 percent of ER visits due to decorating disasters. So
Paul, I`m worried about you. Be careful when you`re hanging those
stockings.
KANGAS: You know it`s the eggnog that makes that such a dangerous job.
Nightly Business Report
transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program
is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at
a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are
their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community
Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/08/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Wall Street opened lower as oil prices moved higher and new weekly
jobless claims unexpectedly rose 8,000. Then the tech sector was
undermined by warnings from chip makers Xilinx and Altera. So the Dow
Industrial Average fell 73 points early on and the NASDAQ Composite lost
29. The market rebounded this afternoon on that news of the president
refusing to raise taxes to pay for Social Security reform, so the Dow
Industrial Average came with a closing gain of 58 1/2 points at 10,552.82.
The NASDAQ Composite was up almost 3 points, closing at 2129.01. Standard &
Poor`s 500 rose just about 6 1/2 points to 1189.24. In the bond market,
the 10-year note fell 14/32 to par and 20/32, putting the yield at 4.17
percent.
Big board volume leader on 31.9 million shares, Lucent Technologies (LU)
moving up $0.11.
Followed by Pfizer (PFE) with a $0.13 loss.
Sprint FON (FON) Group gained $1.78. The company is going to consider
giving cash dividends and share buybacks. The company had no comment on a
"Wall Street Journal" report today that it may form a business combination
with Nextel.
Texas Instruments (TXN) in a week semiconductor group down $0.35.
Motorola (MOT) lost $0.07 in that group.
Then we see Foundation Coal (FCL) a new issue coming to market today, 23.6
million shares offered to the public at 22. It opened at $23.35, the high
of the day $23.40 (ph) and then it slipped back to close $0.25 below the
offering price.
Time Warner (TWX) next in volume was a $0.23 gainer. Smith Barney upgraded
it from "hold" to "buy."
National Semiconductor (NSM) a $0.79 gain. Company out with high second
quarter earnings, $0.21 up from $0.17 last year and the chief exec of
National Semi says inventory problems are now under control.
NorTel Networks (NT) moved up $0.07.
ExxonMobil (XOM), tenth in volume, $0.30 gain there.
Procter & Gamble (PG) gained $1.35 after the company said it`s comfortable
with second quarter Wall Street earnings estimates of $0.72 per share.
Toll Brothers (TOL), the big home builder, up $6.88. Fourth quarter
earnings soared to $2.22 versus $1.19 last year. Revenues shot up 62
percent. Company sees 2005 earnings rising 40 percent. Let`s see what the
other home builders look like on that news.
Beazer Homes (BZH), Centex Corporation (CTX), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)
and Ryland Group (RYL) all major gainers today on that news from Toll
Brothers.
The Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company (GAP) gained $1.17. The company
will cut its overhead costs by an estimated $50 million in 2005 and another
$25 million in the year 2006.
DreamWorks Animation (DWA) losing $2.51. It did report third quarter
earnings of $0.18 versus a loss of $0.47 a share last year, but it delayed
the release of its "Shrek 3" movie from November of 2006 all the way back
to May of 2007 and investors didn`t like it.
HDFC Bank Limited (HDB), this is a bank based in India. It plans a $300
million offering of American Depository shares.
General Maritime (GMR) plunging $3.41. Hibernia brokerage downgraded it
from "buy" to "hold." Of course yesterday, the stock was up 5 1/4.
Barnes & Noble (BKS) up $2.41. The chairman this week bought 684,700 shares
at an average price of $27.64.
And then another new issue, Symmetry Medical (SMA). This is an 8 million
share offering priced at 15, opened at 17 1/4. The high is where it closed,
$18.60.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) topped the active list up $0.24.
Intel (INTC) $0.25 loss.
Microsoft (MSFT) down $0.13.
Google (GOOG) did well, up nearly 3 1/2.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) $0.40 loss. That was fifth in dollar volume.
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) on the up track again, up $0.27.
eBay (EBAY) gained $1.61.
Nextel Communications (NXTL) up $1.84. Speculation that the company may
form a business combination with Sprint as I mentioned.
And then Xilinx (XLNX) down $1.01, predicting third quarter revenues will
fall 5 to 8 percent.
And Altera (ALTR) also predicting lower revenues than expected.
And finally Northeast Pennsylvania Financial (NEPF) up 5.79. KNBT (ph) Bank
Corp. will acquire this company for cash or stock worth $23 a share.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly Business Report
transcripts are available on-line post broadcast. The program
is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at
a later date. The views of our guests and commentators are
their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Community
Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business
Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business
Report is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/09/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10552.82 +58.59 + .6
HIGH 10562.51
LOW 10418.63
NASDAQ COMP. 2129.01 +2.90 +.1
HIGH 2134.23
LOW 2097.86
VOLUME 1,624.1
PREVIOUS 1,525.0
UP VOLUME 945.6
DOWN VOLUME 655.0
DOW TRANSPORTS 3709.21 -14.72 - .4
DOW UTILITIES 318.77 +.41 + .1
CLOSING TICK +687
S&P 500 1189.24 +6.43 + .5
S&P 100 566.37 +2.56 + .5
MIDCAP 400 640.50 +2.79 + .4
REUTERS/CRB 278.23 -.58 - .2
NYSE COMPOSITE 7048.10 +18.13 + .3
VALUE LINE 390.33 +.59 + .2
RUSSELL 2000 629.19 -1.96 - .3
DJW 5000 11691.39 +54.38 + .5
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.50%
Nov. 15,2009 99 24/32 -8/32 + 3.55
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Nov. 15,2014 100 20/32 -14/32 + 4.17
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 107 31/32 -27/32 + 4.84
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1766.48 -5.39
DOW CLOSE 10552.82 +58.59 + .6
ADVANCES 1776
DECLINES 1519
NEW HIGHS 141
NEW LOWS 46
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
LU Lucent Tech 3.84 +.11 +3.0
PFE Pfizer 27.37 -.13 -.5
FON Sprint Fon Group 24.28 +1.78 +7.9
TXN Texas Instrument 23.70 -.35 -1.5
MOT Motorola 17.72 -.07 -.4
FCL Foundation Coal 21.75 -.25 -1.1
TWX Time Warner 18.38 +.23 +1.3
NSM Natl Semiconduct 16.79 +.79 +4.9
NT Nortel Networks 3.83 +.07 +1.9
XOM Exxon Mobil 50.32 +.30 +.6
NASDAQ CLOSE 2129.01 + 2.90 + .1
VOLUME 2,301.7
PREVIOUS 2,401.3
ADVANCES 1373
DECLINES 1749
NASDAQ ACTIVES
QQQQ Nasdaq 100 40.05 +.24 +.6
INTC Intel 22.76 -.25 -1.1
MSFT Microsoft 27.23 -.13 -.5
GOOG Google 173.43 +3.45 +2.0
CSCO Cisco Systems 19.40 -.40 -2.0
SIRI Sirius Satellite 7.17 +.27 +3.9
EBAY eBay 116.22 +1.61 +1.4
NXTL Nextel Comms 29.81 +1.84 +6.6
XLNX Xilinx 29.72 -1.01 -3.3
ALTR Altera 20.47 -1.73 -7.8
AMEX CLOSE 1386.57 - .05 - .0
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 105.38 +.37 +.4
QQQ NASDAQ 100 40.05 +.24 +.6
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 119.22 +.49 +.4
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
PG Procter & Gamble 56.38 +1.35 +2.5
TOL Toll Brothers 60.99 +6.88 +12.7
BZH Beazer Homes 132.51 +4.19 +3.3
CTX Centex 54.60 +3.59 +7.0
HOV Hovnanian Enterp 42.10 +2.22 +5.6
RYL Ryland Group 52.55 +2.08 +4.1
GAP Great A & P 8.91 +1.17 +15.1
DWA DreamWorks Anim 37.69 -2.51 -6.2
HDB HDFC Bank Ltd 38.60 -2.51 -6.1
GMR Genl Maritime 45.80 -3.41 -6.9
BKS Barnes & Noble 30.41 +2.41 +8.6
SMA Symmetry Medical 18.60 +3.60 +24.0
NEPF Northeast Pa Fncl 22.60 +5.79 +34.4
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