| 12/31/04:
One Down Day But Overall A Positive Year
SUSIE GHARIB:Some late day sellers crashed the party on Wall Street today. On this last trading day of 2004, the Dow fell 17 points and the NASDAQ slipped about three. But both posted solid gains for this year. They are also hovering near three and a half year highs. Scott Gurvey reports.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Stock markets ambled their way through this last trading day of the year. Volume was light. Most traders were more interested in how the year ended than concerned about today`s trading. And for the second year in a row, the major averages posted gains. The 30 Dow Jones industrials gained 3.2 percent, significantly less than last year, but good news for bulls just the same. Merck and Pfizer helped restrain the Dow. The broader averages did better. The S&P 500 gaining 9 percent. The NASDAQ composite up 8.6 percent and the Russell 2000 gaining 17 percent for the year.
RALPH ACAMPORA, CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, PRUDENTIAL EQUITY GROUP: I was looking for an up year. It didn`t get quite as high as I wanted, but I have to tell you, its one of the best years I`ve ever seen. And people find that hard to believe, but when you look under the surface and not the leading averages, but you look -- we technicians look at breadth, the advancing-declining issues, they`re at record highs. So we go into the year, the New Year, 2005 with what I call a fully in-gear market. Most of the leading averages are at new highs and most breadth measures are at all time new highs.
GURVEY: Internet stocks, those that survived the collapse of the Internet bubble, did well in the year. So did steel makers and energy companies. But there are signs some of this momentum is slowing, and analysts who concentrate on fundamentals are not so optimistic about 2005.
MICHAEL METZ, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, OPPENHEIMER & CO.: The fundamentals get worse from here. I believe interest rates will go up. I think inflation is going to be a problem, and last but not least, Wall Street expects a big double digit gain in earnings next year. I don`t think that`s going to happen because for earnings to gain that much, you`ll have to have further expansion of corporate profit margins. I don`t think that`s in the cards.
GURVEY: Volatility was unusually low in 2004. Analysts expect it to rise in 2005 due to market uncertainty about energy prices, interest rates and the dollar. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and
do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report,
or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/31/04: The Termination of Textile Import Quotas
JEFF YASTINE: America`s textile and retail industries are in the midst of a legal battle tonight over something that happens tomorrow. That`s when, after more than a decade of planning, textile import quotas imposed more than four decades ago will finally be lifted. Domestic textile makers want the government to impose emergency restrictions on imports from China, claiming a flood of cheap Chinese-made clothes could destroy American businesses. But the nation`s retailers made a preemptive strike to head that off and a Federal judge has now temporarily barred the Commerce Department from imposing those emergency restrictions. As Darren Gersh explains, this is a fight with a lot riding on the outcome.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Retailers are so eager to see global textile quotas expire, one trade group is literally counting down the seconds on its web site. The U.S. Association of Importers of Textiles and Apparel represents retailers like JC Penney and Sears.
JULIE HUGHES, V. P. INTERNATIONAL, USAITA: We started the countdown clock a few years ago, I think in part because many companies weren`t sure this day was ever going to come.
GERSH: But it will come tomorrow. On January 1, quotas on 80 percent of textile and apparel trade will expire for all the World Trade Organization member countries. The U.S. textile industry says it has been a countdown to economic disaster, made worse now that China has joined the WTO.
ROBERT DUPREE, V. P., NATIONAL COUNCIL OF TEXTILE ORGANIZATIONS: At the time it was drawn up, nobody envisioned China coming in with its predatory pricing practices and being prepared to literally dominate the market in all of these categories.
GERSH: For 30 years, quotas have capped imports on hundreds of products. But when those limits were removed in 2002 on baby clothes, bras and pajamas, China`s share of the U.S. market went from 10 percent to 72 percent. China says it has succeeded through a combination of high quality and low costs. U.S. textile makers see it differently. The say Chinese manufacturers have an unfair advantage due to the undervalued Chinese currency. American textile makers are warning of massive job losses once the quotas expire.
DUPREE: The U.S. government has the tools at its disposal to act against unfair and illegal Chinese imports. They just need to use them.
GERSH: Everyone agrees prices will fall when textile quotas expire, but they disagree on who will benefit. U.S. textile makers say it will be importers and other middlemen. But retailers and some analysts predict consumer will see prices cuts of up to 40 percent for pants, suits, underwear and many other products.
HUGHES: In the short term, obviously there is anxiety. But in the long term, I think it is going to be good for all successful companies around the world to do more business, because people will buy more at the stores.
GERSH: U.S. textile makers doubt that, but in the end it seems to be just a matter of time. In a recent report, the World Trade Organization predicts by 2008, China will have sewn up half of the world`s trade in textiles and apparel. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and
do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report,
or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/31/04:
Rewriting The Barcode
SUSIE GHARIB: You probably didn`t even notice them anymore, but for years now, just about everything you buy has had a bar code, those black lines and numbers that are read by electronic cash registers. But beginning tomorrow, those registers and bar codes will be changing, moving from the U.S. standard of 12 digits to the European standard of 13. As Angela Terrell Heath explains, that small change will affect every retailer in the country large and small.
ANGELA TERRELL HEATH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Magruder`s grocery just outside Washington, D.C., spent close to $400,000 upgrading its systems to meet Saturday`s deadline.
GLENN GIBSON, CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER, MAGRUDER`S: Quite frankly, we were not looking forward to making such an investment to accommodate a longer barcode and we really had no choice in terms of not being able to do it.
HEATH: There is a large Russian community here so the store now imports Russian wine and beer, all of which carry the 13-digit barcode.
GIBSON: With our base of customers that`s more international, we buy a lot of products from outside the United States, so we had to accommodate that.
HEATH: For years, retailers have had to re-label imported goods in order for scanners to read them at the checkout. But as of Saturday, all U.S. and Canadian companies are encouraged to upgrade scanners to read the European standard 13-digit barcode at the point of sale. The change was meant to save time and money, but for Magruder`s and many small and medium sized retailers, it`s been an expensive way to ring in the New Year. The upgrade effort varied for retailers depending on their size and the complexity of their systems. Larger stores, like Wal-Mart and Target, upgraded their systems years ago. The Uniform Code Council is the keeper of barcodes and urged all stores to be ready.
AL GARTON, DIRECTOR OF RETAIL, UNIFORM CODE COUNCIL: Retailers that haven`t addressed this could begin to see, over the course of time, some customer service issues and they may find themselves having to do some manual inputs into their systems at point of sale. And in today`s competitive retail environment that certainly is not something that most retailers are prepared to deal with or want to deal with.
HEATH: The National Retail Federation says most stores are ready and say both retailers and customers will benefit from the change.
DAVE HOGAN, CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER, NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION: The most important thing is that it`s going to reduce the cost for manufacturers and retailers to do business and ultimately it`s going to speed up product going from manufacturer to the customer.
HEATH: The barcode upgrade is expected to be transparent to customers, except of course in those stores that haven`t invested in the software to read that 13th digit. Angela Terrell Heath, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and
do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report,
or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/31/04:
Paul Cherney of Standard & Poor's On The Year's Biggest Winners & Losers
JEFF YASTINE: It`s the last day of the year and the last day of the quarter, so it`s time to see which stocks were the biggest gainers and the biggest losers on Wall Street and joining me now is Paul Cherney, Standard & Poor`s chief market analyst. Paul welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.
PAUL CHERNEY, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, STANDARD & POOR`S: Hi, Jeff, nice to see you.
YASTINE: Now let`s talk about the fourth quarter. It didn`t have a promising start but what an ending here these last couple of months.
CHERNEY: The turnaround really was accentuated to the upside, the rebound after October 25. It coincided with a turn down in the price of oil.
YASTINE: Let`s take a look at how the major indexes then did over, here over these last three months. You have the Dow had a 7 percent gain, S&P 8 percent, 8.7 percent and the NASDAQ clearly the big winner of the three.
CHERNEY: A lot of that out performance in the NASDAQ is due to good rebounds in the software stocks on speculation of merger and acquisition.
YASTINE: All right. Now let`s move on to the best performing stocks within the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the quarter and Altria Group leading the way, tobacco stock.
CHERNEY: Well, a tobacco stock, but in November it rose about 10 percent in one day after the CEO suggested that shareholders might benefit from splitting the company into two or three parts.
YASTINE: So really it wasn`t so much a dividend play there as much as news about this breakup or potential breakup of the company.
CHERNEY: It does have a good dividend, too though.
YASTINE: Tell us a little bit about Disney and Caterpillar.
CHERNEY: Disney advertising and theme park businesses have been rebounding. Caterpillar, end of September, they raised their 2004 sales forecast and they expect a 10 percent revenue rise due to the great demand for their equipment.
YASTINE: All right. How about on the Dow for I`d guess we`d call them the dogs of the Dow here for the fourth quarter? We had Pfizer leading the way there with Alcoa and General Motors coming in behind.
CHERNEY: Pfizer, the concerns about Celebrex, a Cox two inhibitor like the Vioxx, December 17, it took a real hit. Alcoa not really down that much but during the quarter, brokerage downgrades of the company cited concerns about margin pressure hurting earnings. And GM, October 14 they cut their profit forecast after posting disappointing numbers.
YASTINE: Moving on to the best performing stocks on the S&P 500 we have one leading the way here that given all the negative news on this sector, unless you were looking at this one particular stock, you never would have guessed it, Delta Airlines.
CHERNEY: It`s kind of amazing. Near the end of October though, the company had secured a line of credit and reached a tentative agreement with its pilots. The drop in fuel prices I think also helped a little.
YASTINE: And then we have the two worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 leading the way, Marsh & McClennan down when the Spitzer reports had came out and then also the other stock there Chiron.
CHERNEY: Chiron, Chiron they had flu vaccine manufacturing was halted in Britain. We all remember that at the beginning of October. And Marsh & McClennan, Spitzer filed charges about insurance companies might be steering business to preferred underwriters.
YASTINE: It`s worth noting, Marsh & McClennan was up 44 percent since that announcement came out, since the low. It`s really rebounded nicely even though it is obviously still down for the quarter. Let`s move on to the fourth quarter NASDAQ 100, the best two stocks there. Of course Verisign and then Apple Computer riding high.
CHERNEY: Verisign, you know, it`s a security software. In October it swung to a profit on a sales rise of 21 percent. And Apple, you only need to say one word, iPod.
YASTINE: And then moving on to the two worst performers of that group.
CHERNEY: Chiron we talked about. Sandisk, they make flash storage cards used in digital cameras and cell phones. In October, it reported a sales rise, but it missed Street expectations by a wide margin and it took a one-day hit of 27 percent.
YASTINE: Paul, we`ve got about 15 seconds left or so here but what do you think about 2005 as we head into a new trading year?
CHERNEY: I think the easiest way for people to gauge the prospects for the year to look at the S&P at the end of January. If it is higher than it was at the end of December, odds are almost nine in 10 that we`ll have higher prices by the end of December of 2005.
YASTINE: All right. We`ll have to see how January comes out then. Paul, thank you for your time.
CHERNEY: My pleasure.
YASTINE: Our guest Paul Cherney, chief market analyst at Standard & Poor`s.
Nightly Business Report transcripts
are available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date.
The views of our guests and commentators are their own and
do not necessarily represent the views of Community Television
Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report,
or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly Business Report
is not and should not be considered as investment advice.
Copyright (c) 2003 Community Television Foundation of South
Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
12/31/04:
Paul Kangas' "Stocks In The News"
JEFF YASTINE: I guess the phrase of the day on Wall Street might have been let`s just get it over with. The Dow traded sideways for the first half of the session, hovering just above 10,800. But with the New Year celebrations tonight and a lot of people out, trading was quiet. The bond markets closed at 2:00 p.m. and afterwards stocks staged a small rally and it looked like they`d end the day nicely in the green, but in the last hour, it was cut and run. The Dow ended down over 17 points at 10,783.01. This week the Dow fell in four out of this week`s five sessions for a net overall drop of 44 points. The NASDAQ Composite falling about three points to 2,175.44 and this index was up in two sessions this week for a net gain of almost 15 points. And the S&P 500 falling 1 2/3 points to 1211.92. In today`s shortened bond trading session, the 10-year note rising 9/32 to 100 7/32, putting the yield down to 4.22 percent.
Pfizer (PFE) falling $0.12. The FDA approved Pfizer`s new Lirica (ph) pain drug for use in diabetes and shingles treatments, but not for epilepsy. Lirica is intended to curb Pfizer`s shrinking sales for its Nurontin (ph) product which is being hurt by generic competition.
General Electric (GE) dropping a dime. The conglomerate selling a 60 percent stake in its back office operations in India with Atlantic Partners and Oak Hill Capital paying $500 million. GE will use that money for other expansion plans and GE also reaffirmed its fourth quarter earnings target of $0.48 to $0.51 a share.
And shares in insurance brokerage giant Marsh & McLennan (MMC) rising $0.39. You may recall the stock nose diving back in October when New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer launched a widespread probe into the company`s business practices but shares appear to be on the mend from its October low of $24 a share.
ExxonMobil (XOM) gaining $0.23 and for the year that stock gained 25 percent.
Wal-Mart (WMT) falling $0.24.
Time Warner (TWX) up three pennies.
EMC Corp. (EMC) gaining a nickel.
SBC Communications (SBC) up just a fraction there.
And J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) losing $0.07.
And here`s Eli Lilly (LLY) sliding $0.75. A British medical journal received documents linking Lilly`s anti-depressant Prozac to suicidal behavior in some users. The clinical study papers had been missing for years, part of a 10-year old lawsuit against the company. Lilly says it was not aware of the missing documents.
Boeing (BA) ending off $0.13 but posting a 23 percent gain for the year. The plane maker confirming the country of Vietnam has placed orders for four new 7E7 jetliners which are expected to be completed in the coming months.
Alcoa (AA) slipping $0.03. The aluminum producer closing out 2004 with a 17 percent loss on the stock, but today the Russian government approved its plans, Alcoa`s plans to acquire two fabricating plants from a Russian aluminum maker.
And here`s a look at shares in steel stocks, rebounding after yesterday`s sell off. AK Steel Holding (AKS) rising $0.58 after a 12 percent drop yesterday. That was on a "Wall Street Journal" article detailing concerns about excess steel supplies. Well today, a Bradford (ph) research report called that article overblown and said look for improvement still in the first half of 2005.
And here`s the reaction looking at steel stocks with Insteel Industries (IIIN), Novamerican (TONS), Nucor Corporation (NUE), Oregon Steel Mills (OS), U.S. Steel Group (X) all up nicely on the day.
Over on the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) tracking stock down $0.08.
A nearly $5 drop for Google (GOOG).
Microsoft (MSFT) losing out on the day.
And Intel (INTC) gaining $0.14.
Oracle (ORCL) up, excuse me, down $0.16.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) falling a dime.
And eBay (EBAY) down $1.43. Symantec (SYMC) up $0.31.
And Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) gaining $0.14.
Apple Computer (AAPL) closing out the year down $0.40.
Here`s a look at Dialysis Corporation Of America (DCAI) surging a little over $5. Dialysis Corp. said last week that it opened a new center in Virginia. And Mikron Infrared (MIKR) rising $3.74. The company makes electronic temperature measurement devices. It was a $4.50 stock until the middle of this month, when it announced record sales and operating profits and the stock has been sailing higher ever since. And those are our stocks in the news tonight. Susie.
Nightly Business Report transcripts are
available on-line post broadcast. The program is transcribed
by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may be posted at a later date. The
views of our guests and commentators are their own and do not
necessarily represent the views of Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. Nightly Business Report, or WPBT. Information
presented on Nightly Business Report is not and should not be
considered as investment advice. Copyright (c) 2003 Community
Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Terms of use.
12/31/04:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10783.01 -17.29 - .2
HIGH 10832.52
LOW 10781.01
NASDAQ COMP. 2175.44 -2.90 -.1
HIGH 2185.56
LOW 2174.63
VOLUME 786.1
PREVIOUS 828.7
UP VOLUME 387.9
DOWN VOLUME 389.8
DOW TRANSPORTS 3798.05 -10.55 - .3
DOW UTILITIES 334.95 -1.91 - .6
CLOSING TICK +834
S&P 500 1211.92 -1.63 - .1
S&P 100 575.29 -.81 - .1
MIDCAP 400 663.31 -1.19 - .2
REUTERS/CRB 283.90 unch. unch.
NYSE COMPOSITE 7250.06 -3.50 - .1
VALUE LINE 404.43 -.41 - .1
RUSSELL 2000 651.57 -1.49 - .2
DJW 5000 11971.14 -16.68 - .1
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.50%
Dec. 15,2009 99 16/32 +4/32 + 3.61
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Nov. 15,2014 100 7/32 +9/32 + 4.22
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 108 1/32 +21/32 + 4.83
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1760.28 +10.02
DOW CLOSE 10783.01 -17.29 - .2
ADVANCES 1766
DECLINES 1489
NEW HIGHS 280
NEW LOWS 6
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
LU Lucent Tech 3.76 +.01 +.3
PFE Pfizer 26.89 -.12 -.4
GE GE 36.50 -.10 -.3
MMC Marsh & McLennan 32.90 +.39 +1.2
XOM Exxon Mobil 51.26 +.23 +.5
WMT Wal-Mart 52.82 -.24 -.5
TWX Time Warner 19.44 +.03 +.2
EMC EMC Corp 14.87 +.05 +.3
SBC SBC Comms 25.77 +.01 +.0
JPM JPMorgan Chase 39.01 -.07 -.2
NASDAQ CLOSE 2175.44 - 2.90 - .1
VOLUME 1,369.4
PREVIOUS 1,404.3
ADVANCES 1608
DECLINES 1504
NASDAQ ACTIVES
QQQQ Nasdaq 100 39.92 -.08 -.2
GOOG Google 192.79 -4.81 -2.4
MSFT Microsoft 26.72 -.04 -.2
INTC Intel 23.39 +.14 +.6
ORCL Oracle 13.72 -.16 -1.2
CSCO Cisco Systems 19.32 -.10 -.5
EBAY eBay 116.34 -1.43 -1.2
SYMC Symantec 25.76 +.31 +1.2
SIRI Sirius Satellite 7.62 +.14 +1.9
AAPL Apple Computer 64.40 -.40 -.6
AMEX CLOSE 1434.34 + 4.27 + .3
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 107.51 -.33 -.3
QQQ NASDAQ 100 39.92 -.08 -.2
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 120.87 -.26 -.2
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
LLY Eli Lilly 56.75 -.75 -1.3
BA Boeing Co 51.77 -.13 -.3
AA Alcoa 31.42 -.03 -.1
AKS Ak Steel Hldg 14.47 +.58 +4.2
IIIN Insteel Inds 18.06 +.06 +.3
TONS Novamerican 56.15 +5.20 +10.2
NUE Nucor 52.34 +.96 +1.9
OS Oregon Steel 20.29 +.95 +4.9
X US Steel Corp 51.25 +1.21 +2.4
DCAI Dialysis America 24.43 +5.22 +27.2
MIKR Mikron Infrared 13.02 +3.74 +40.3
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