9/22/05: Hurricanes Rita & Katrina Are Wreaking Havoc With The Economy
PAUL KANGAS: Hurricane Rita is barreling through the
Gulf of Mexico tonight, and people along the Texas coast are getting out of
her way. This afternoon the storm was downgraded to a category four, still
very dangerous and still liable to cause huge economic repercussions after
she makes landfall. Scott Gurvey reports.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Even as
residents flee the Texas coast ahead of hurricane Rita, the economic impact
of hurricane Katrina is still being tallied. While repairs are under way
in New Orleans, the Labor Department said today that 214,000 people have
now filed unemployment claims because they lost their jobs in Katrina`s
aftermath. On the future`s markets, the price of gasoline and heating oil
rose today as traders anticipated more refinery damage due to hurricane
Rita. The nation`s largest concentration of refineries is along the Texas
coast and oil companies have been shutting down operations across the
region. Four refineries are still out of service in Louisiana. Analysts
say higher energy prices resulting from supply disruptions will cut growth
in the near term but they expect a balancing boost to growth next year.
BRIAN FABBRI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BNP PARIBAS: We can expect to spend
more on energy, less on everything else. But at the same time, government
is coming in with a windfall, if you like, of fiscal stimulus to the
effected area. And my guess would be there`ll be some going to Texas if
Rita is very damaging and as a result we wind up seeing GDP growth surge in
the first half of 2006.
GURVEY: The Conference Board`s index of leading economic indicators
showed a decline last month, and it was measured before hurricane Katrina.
The drop was due to a decline in consumer sentiment. Economists say
consumers` buying decisions in the months ahead are likely to be most
influenced by the inflation effects of the hurricanes.
ANIRVAN BANERJI, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH
INSTITUTE: Consumers tend to build up precautionary savings because they
don`t know what`s going to hit them in terms of prices and even more so
when we are talking about food and energy inflation, because people don`t
have a choice about spending money on food and energy. When that happens,
consumer spending growth takes a hit and that is what we do expect in the
aftermath of these two hurricanes.
GURVEY: The New York Mercantile Exchange will hold a rare Sunday
daytime electronic trading session after Rita makes landfall. The idea is
to take a proactive approach to help manage risk. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY
BUSINESS REPORT, New York.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05:Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman On The Hurricane Impact
SUSIE GHARIB: A strong warning today from the American Petroleum
Institute. It said that hurricane Rita poses quote an unprecedented
situation for the oil industry. When I talked with Energy Secretary Samuel
Bodman a short while ago, I asked him how the administration is preparing
the nation`s refineries for the menace of Rita.
SAMUEL BODMAN, ENERGY SECRETARY: First of all this is a massive
storm and we are taking it very seriously. We are doing everything that we
can do throughout the government but particularly here in the Energy
Department. We have deployed people to the region, both to the FEMA offices
as well as to the state emergency operation offices that are located there.
These are very experienced people who have been through this just three
weeks ago getting ready for the advent of Katrina. So I`m very comfortable
with that. We`re working with other agencies within the government to get
appropriate waivers. The EPA has already waved regulations on gasoline
formulation for this region in advance of this storm. So I would say that
we`re doing everything we can do. More importantly, frankly, the companies
who own these assets are responding extraordinarily well. They are very
comfortable, not that there`s not going to be damage, because they don`t
know that, but that they have prepared for it very well.
GHARIB: Now exactly to that point, Secretary Bodman, we have seen a
lot of the oil companies shutting down the refineries along the Texas
coast. What can you do to minimize the impact of them being off line?
BODMAN: There is nothing that anyone can do over the next couple of
days until we find out what the damage was that has been caused by this
hurricane. In many cases the refineries have been closed because no one
was quite sure where this hurricane was going to go. For example, the
refineries in Corpus Christi which now seems to be outside the line of fire
are now closed and all of the employees have evacuated. So all of these
refineries are going to be closed for the next few days.
GHARIB: And we saw when that happened after Katrina that gasoline
prices skyrocketed after that because refineries were damaged or shut down.
What can we expect after Rita?
BODMAN: We can expect that first of all, that the companies
themselves are going to respond very rapidly and responsibly which they did
the last time in my view so that I think we`ll find that the response will
be effective. We can`t forecast specific prices or volumes until we see
what the damage is that`s caused by this hurricane.
GHARIB: You said today that the administration is prepared to
release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. Is there any trigger
point of where crude prices reach or gasoline prices that you would begin a
release program?
BODMAN: We will respond using the petroleum reserve for the
purposes for which it was intended Susie and that would mean if there is an
interruption in supply of crude oil, a number of the offshore platforms
have been closed down in anticipation of this hurricane depending upon what
their situation is and what the availability of crude oil is, we will
certainly try to respond to whatever the demands are from the marketplace.
It will be made available if required.
GHARIB: Now oil experts say that between these supply disruptions
that we have been seeing and the high prices in crude and gasoline,
whatever, that this is a new paradigm for energy prices unless there is a
recession. And the prices are going to stay at these high levels. Do you
agree with that?
BODMAN: Well, we have certainly for the first time, at least in my
lifetime, seen a situation where the suppliers of crude oil have had
difficulty keeping up with the demand. Now there will be a response to
these higher prices. We have seen high prices before we had Katrina, before
we had Rita. And the question will be, can the industry respond? I believe
that it`s likely they will be able to do that, but it`s going to take time.
This is not an industry that can turn on a dime. Some time is required.
GHARIB: We hear over and over again that Americans have got to
start conserving energy, using less and less. Are you going to be -- do you
have any plans for a conservation program for Americans?
BODMAN: We will certainly be advocating that and that something
that falls in the province of the Energy Department and I will be taking
the lead on that. The president has been advocating conservation and I
will be on the road myself trying to deliver that message. It`s very
important that our citizens respond appropriately to the situation that
confronts all of us.
GHARIB: All right, sir, thank you so much, Secretary Bodman. We
appreciate your time.
BODMAN: I`m happy to be here.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05: The Retroactive Flood Insurance Policy Option
SUSIE GHARIB: Insured losses from hurricane Katrina and already estimated
between $40 and $60 billion. Billions more will be covered by the Federal
flood insurance program. Still, many Americans hurt by Katrina never
bought flood insurance. And as Darren Gersh reports, there`s an
unconventional plan in the works tonight to let them buy it after the fact.
DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Much of
Congressman Gene Taylor`s Mississippi district was washed off the map by
Katrina. In many towns every home was destroyed.
REP. GENE TAYLOR (R) MISSISSIPPI: It`s not like there is still a
roof there or walls. They are just gone.
GERSH: Now, Taylor is working to rewrite the rules of the national
flood insurance program to let homeowners who weren`t required to buy it to
purchase retroactive flood insurance coverage. The help comes at a price.
GEORGE BERNSTEIN, FORMER FEDERAL INSURANCE ADMINISTRATOR: Pay a
penalty for not actually belonging on the day, pay a 10-year premium back
premium, and then promise to stay in the program so that they`re not gaming
it, that they don`t just get a check and run off.
GERSH: Federal flood insurance is designed as a tradeoff. Local
governments agree to enforce building standards that reduce flood damage
for new construction and in return the Federal government covers older,
more vulnerable homes with subsidized flood insurance. George Bernstein
helped develop the program in the Nixon administration. He says it makes
no sense to let people buy in retroactively.
BERNSTEIN: Why don`t you just call it welfare? That`s not
insurance. Don`t call it insurance. That is one of the things that has
always bugged me when you try to disguise one program as another program.
If the Congress wants to do that, that`s fine, but don`t call it insurance.
GERSH: Taylor calls it fairness. He says, for example, the Gulf
coast helped New York recover after 9/11.
TAYLOR: I, along with all the people of Mississippi, all the
people of Louisiana, all the people of Alabama, paid our tax dollars to
help make them whole. I am asking for these folks to help make Mississippi
and Louisiana whole.
GERSH: Flood insurance is only required for homes that are in a
floodplain and carry a mortgage. Taylor wants to extend retroactive
coverage to homes located outside the floodplain, which experts say could
be a major change.
REBECCA QUINN, LEGISLATIVE OFFICER, ASSOCIATION OF STATE FLOODPLAIN
MANAGERS: In a sense, there is a possibility that policy holders all across
the country could end up subsidizing reconstruction in areas where there is
no land management.
GERSH: Talk of expanding the program comes as the losses in the
flood insurance program are sure to mount. The threat from Rita stretches
from Corpus Christi to Port Arthur and up into Houston. It`s an area that
covers more than a quarter million flood insurance policies with a total
value of more than $43 billion. By comparison, in the New Orleans area,
216,000 homes carried flood insurance with a total coverage value of $28
billion. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
To learn more about this topic, click
here.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05: One On One With John Castellani, President of the Business Roundtable
SUSIE GHARIB: While the nation braces for hurricane Rita, the CEOs
of America`s biggest companies say in a new survey that hurricane Katrina
will hurt their operations and the repercussions could last a year. The
survey was done by the Business Roundtable and when I spoke with the
group`s president, John Castellani, I asked him to explain the negative
impact of Katrina on American business.
JOHN CASTELLANI, PRESIDENT, BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE: Put this into
perspective. We had done the CEO economic outlook just before Katrina, so
we came back and did it this week, last week and this week so that we could
gauge the effect. And what we saw overall is where we thought the economy
was going to grow at about 3.5 percent GDP growth rate for the next six
months. It`s come down slightly. It`s come down to 3.3 percent is the
outlook and that has been driven primarily by changes in capital
expenditure plans for the next six months.
GHARIB: You`re going to have to go back to your membership and do
another survey given what`s going on with hurricane Rita. If you were to
go back and talk to them, what do you think that they would say of how much
hurricane Rita is going to weigh down on their operations?
CASTELLANI: Well, we know this historically and both Katrina and
Rita are similar to what has happened in some other very devastating
hurricanes and natural disasters in the past. We know in addition to the
very devastating effect for the people, the homes and the businesses in the
area where it hits, that overall the economy will take a hit for about the
first three months. Then we see actually a rebuild and an uptick in the
economy as people replace the homes that were lost, as they buy cars that
were lost, as they replace durable goods and their household goods and then
that probably will last about three to six months, maybe even a year and
then long term the effect does have a -- it is dampening because after all
wealth has been lost. People have lost some of their possessions and some
of their own personal wealth. We would expect the same thing for Rita.
GHARIB: Now looking at the survey results a little more closely,
the outlook for spending, capital spending and sales expectations were down
sharply so what do you think are the implications of that for economic
growth?
CASTELLANI: Well, we still think that the economy was strong
before Katrina. It`s strong still overall before Rita hits, so it`s able to
withstand the kind of effects, the national kind of effects that these
hurricanes have on the economy. Cap ex, capital expenditures were down the
most in the categories we looked at. They dropped by 14 percentage points.
But the good news is we didn`t see a contraction of capital expenditure
plans. What we saw were those 14 points go to the category of it`s going to
stay the same as it has been in the last six months rather than increasing.
I think the real problem is going to be watching natural gas prices,
particularly. That`s what we`re watching.
GHARIB: And what did the CEOs say about energy prices?
CASTELLANI: Well, if you - if we looked at what were the sources of
the negative impacts on businesses, energy prices, 29 percent of our CEOs
said it was energy costs, 27 percent said it was physical damage to the
infrastructure that was affected in the hurricane area. Energy costs are
something that we`re going to have to watch very carefully particularly
natural gas costs. When we`re looking at natural gas more than 13, almost
$14 a million cubic feet as a feed stock, as an industrial fuel, as a
process fuel, as well as a heating -- source of heating fuel for many, many
homes in the country, it`s going to, if it stays at a high level, it`s
going to have a dampening effect.
GHARIB: Real quickly because we`re running out of time, what is the
Business Roundtable`s reaction to the hike by the Federal Reserve this
week? Do they support that in view of this feedback?
CASTELLANI: I think everyone expected it. A quarter of a point
keeps it on target. I think the Fed`s view of the economy was remarkably
similar to the Business Roundtable CEO`s view of the economy and that is
underlying, the underlying economic signs were strong. They continue to be
strong and we should be able to maintain the effects.
GHARIB: All right. We`ll have leave it there. Mr. Castellani,
thank you very much.
CASTELLANI: You`re welcome.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05: Commentary: Democracy Gone Global
SUSIE GHARIB: Tonight`s commentator is looking at democracy around the globe and
how elections in far-flung places can affect us here at home. Here`s
Barbara Hackman Franklin, president of Barbara Franklin Enterprises and
former secretary of Commerce under President George H. Bush.
BARBARA HACKMAN FRANKLIN, PRES. & CEO, BARBARA FRANKLIN
ENTERPRISES: Within weeks of each other, two of the world`s largest
economies, Japan and Germany, have had elections. Both countries need
structural change to stay competitive and economic reform was in the mix of
both elections. Japan`s economy has been sluggish for years and there is a
huge budget deficit. Prime Minister Koizumi has pushed for reforms, but
ran into trouble in his own party. When his latest proposal was defeated,
he called for elections. In a stunning result, he and his party won big,
minus those who opposed his reforms and now he has a mandate.
In Germany, high unemployment and low growth prevail, even though
Chancellor Schroeder and his social Democrats have made limited progress.
Angela Merkel and the Christian Democrats proposed more aggressive
reforms, but Sunday`s election resulted in a stalemate and negotiations to
form a new government have begun. Whatever coalition emerges, meaningful
reform is probably out the window.
Here are two different responses to the same global competitive
environment. In Japan, a positive result, though how far and fast Koizumi
can push remains to be seen. In Germany, a negative, and that is a setback
for Europe. Meanwhile, competition becomes tougher every day, as China and
India emerge. Time may be running out. Let`s hope the politicians and the
voters get the message. I`m Barbara Hackman Franklin.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05:
"Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: Stocks opened modestly higher on bargain hunting after
three days of steep losses. The Dow rebounded 30 points at the outset of
trading, while the NASDAQ was up two. Even solid earnings from General
Motors and KB Homes couldn`t offset higher oil prices, so by noon, the Dow
fell to a 15 point loss. NASDAQ off ten. As oil prices eased this
afternoon, stocks recovered. Dow industrial average in with a 44 point
closing gain at 10,422.05. NASDAQ rose 4.14 at 2110.78. Standard & Poor`s
500 gained 4.42 to 1214.62. In the bond market, the 10-year note fell 4/32
to par and 18/32, putting the yield at 4.18 percent.
The most active New York exchange issue on 28.7 million shares,
Genworth Financial (GNW) losing a dime from where it closed yesterday.
General Electric is selling 80 million of its shares it owns at a price of
$29.50, right where it closed.
ExxonMobil (XOM) edging a penny higher.
Pfizer (PFE) down $0.06.
Calpine (CPN) gained a penny.
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) up $0.70, fifth in big board volume.
Then Corning (GLW) down $1.04. A research outfit called I Supplies
predicting a market glut for LCDs, liquid crystal displays. That`s one
of Corning`s major products of course.
General Electric (GE) itself was down $0.03.
Motorola (MOT) an $0.11 loss.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) down $0.20.
Lucent Technology (LU) fell a penny, tenth in volume.
Alcoa (AA) down $0.18. After the close, the company issued a third
quarter earnings warning, saying it will only earn about $0.29 a share
versus the Street estimate of $0.43. In after hours trading, I saw the
stock as low as $24.26 a share.
McDonald`s (MCD) up $1.67. Yesterday the company said it plans to take
its Chipotle Mexican restaurant chain public. It also is boosting its
annual dividend by 22 percent to $0.67 a share.
Sprint Nextel (S) up $0.76. The company says its post-merger
integration is running ahead of schedule and the cost savings are better
than expected.
General Mills (GIS) moving up $1.51. First quarter earnings $0.68,
$0.12 above the Street consensus. The company said its higher food prices
are beginning to pay off.
The home builder KB Homes (KBH) up $2.98. Third quarter earnings
$2.55, $0.16 better than the Street expected and way up from $1.42 last
year. Revenues shot up 44 percent and on top of that, the company boosted
its 2005 earnings estimate from $9 to $9.30 a share.
Fleetwood Enterprises (FLE) edged up $0.45, but it did trade as high
as $13.50 today. The company`s accepted orders from FEMA for 7500 travel
trailers and 3,000 single section manufactured homes in the wake of the
damage caused by hurricane Katrina.
Shaw Group (SGR) up $2.86. The company has been awarded a construction
contract worth $680 million to build electric generating plants for Cleco
Power.
Then Corn Products International (CPO) off $3.21. The company cut its
2005 earnings estimate from the range of $1.34 to $1.44 all the way down to
$1.16 to $1.22. The company cited higher taxes and higher fuel costs.
NASDAQ`s most active Google (GOOG) down $0.53.
Followed by Microsoft (MSFT) $0.15 loss.
Sears Holdings (SHLD) however, up $6.76. Retirees under the age of 65
will be required to handle most, if not all of their health care premiums
beginning next year.
Intel (INTC) $0.06 gain.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) up $0.26. That was fifth in dollar volume.
Apple Computer (AAPL) down $0.21.
Sandisk (SNDK) fell $1.51.
Dell (DELL) up $0.63.
Ebay (EBAY) rose $0.87.
And Qualcomm (QCOM) a $0.27 gain.
Engineered Support Systems (EASI), a huge gain of $7.58. DRS
Technologies will acquire this firm for $43 a share in cash and stock. DRS
stock was down $0.94.
And then Oracle (ORCL) up $0.23. After the close, first quarter
earnings $0.14 a share, in line with estimates, but revenues were lower
than expected. In after hours trading, I saw the stock as low as $12.90 a
share.
Those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
09/22/05:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10422.05 +44.02 + .4
HIGH 10444.51
LOW 10350.96
NASDAQ COMP. 2110.78 +4.14 +.2
HIGH 2114.59
LOW 2093.06
VOLUME 1,866.5
PREVIOUS 1,933.8
UP VOLUME 948.1
DOWN VOLUME 896.9
DOW TRANSPORTS 3610.58 +13.53 + .4
DOW UTILITIES 418.38 -3.40 - .8
CLOSING TICK -370
S&P 500 1214.62 +4.42 + .4
S&P 100 562.85 +2.07 + .4
MIDCAP 400 697.89 +1.52 + .2
REUTERS/CRB 328.29 +1.25 + .4
NYSE COMPOSITE 7519.86 +4.84 + .1
VALUE LINE 401.00 +.52 + .1
RUSSELL 2000 651.16 +1.22 + .2
DJW 5000 12106.89 +34.99 + .3
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 3.875%
Sept. 15,2010 99 14/32 -3/32 + 4.00
10-YEAR NOTE 4.25%
Aug. 15,2015 100 18/32 -4/32 + 4.18
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 113 26/32 -4/32 + 4.46
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1805.45 +6.53
DOW CLOSE 10422.05 +44.02 + .4
ADVANCES 1470
DECLINES 1864
NEW HIGHS 109
NEW LOWS 166
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
GNW Genworth Finl 29.50 -.10 -.3
XOM Exxon Mobil 64.98 +.01 +.0
PFE Pfizer 25.25 -.06 -.2
CPN Calpine 2.66 +.01 +.4
WMT Wal-Mart Stores 43.19 +.70 +1.7
GLW Corning 18.75 -1.04 -5.3
GE GE 33.30 -.03 -.1
MOT Motorola 22.15 -.11 -.5
TSM Taiwan Semi 7.94 -.20 -2.5
LU Lucent Tech 3.04 -.01 -.3
NASDAQ CLOSE 2110.78 + 4.14 + .2
VOLUME 1,771.2
PREVIOUS 1,822.7
ADVANCES 1435
DECLINES 1585
NASDAQ ACTIVES
GOOG Google 311.37 -.53 -.2
MSFT Microsoft 25.34 -.15 -.6
SHLD Sears Holding 121.91 +6.76 +5.9
INTC Intel 24.56 +.06 +.2
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.11 +.26 +1.5
AAPL Apple Computer 51.90 -.21 -.4
SNDK Sandisk 43.79 -1.51 -3.3
DELL Dell 33.99 +.63 +1.9
EBAY eBay 37.72 +.87 +2.4
QCOM Qualcomm 44.00 +.27 +.6
AMEX CLOSE 1720.50 - 10.93 - .6
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 104.05 +.30 +.3
QQQ NASDAQ 100 38.64 +.14 +.4
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 121.34 +.43 +.4
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
AA Alcoa 25.90 -.18 -.7
MCD McDonald's 33.09 +1.67 +5.3
S Sprint Nextel 24.31 +.76 +3.2
GIS General Mills 46.19 +1.51 +3.4
KBH KB Home 73.70 +2.98 +4.2
FLE Fleetwood Enterp 12.89 +.45 +3.6
SGR Shaw Group 24.86 +2.86 +13.0
CPO Corn Prod Intl 18.05 -3.21 -15.1
EASI Engineered Sup 40.93 +7.58 +22.7
ORCL Oracle 13.52 +.23 +1.7
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