1/06/06: Interest Rates & The Jobs Report Send The Bulls Running
PAUL KANGAS: The bulls were running on Wall Street
today. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite
index closed at their highest levels in four-and-a- half years, with the
blue chips up 77 points and the tech index up 28. Traders were encouraged
by a weaker than expected employment report for December and the
speculation it generated that the Fed may soon end its string of interest
rate hikes. Scott Gurvey reports.
SCOTT GURVEY, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Employers added
108,000 jobs in December, fewer than expected. But the number of jobs
added in November was revised upward by 90,000. That trend economists say,
paints a picture of an economy which continues to grow at a manageable
pace. Several sectors added jobs in December, including food services,
professional and business services, health care and manufacturing. The
jobs gain was the smallest of the year other than September and October,
when the impact of hurricane Katrina slowed hiring. The unemployment rate
fell 0.1 percent in December, down to 4.9 percent.
DAVID RESLER, CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES: The two months
together were not too much different than we had expected. And with the
weather probably holding down employment gains in the construction
industry, I think that this is overall a pretty constructive report and in
fact the manufacturing sector posted one of its largest gains in almost two
years and that increase is suggestive of a manufacturing industry that`s
going to be expanding pretty rapidly.
GURVEY: For the year, the economy added two million jobs and the
unemployment rate fell by half a percentage point. Average wages rose 3.1
percent. Economists say those higher wages should not be a concern for the
Federal Reserve at this time, since they are still less than the current
inflation rate of 3.5 percent. In fact many economists believe today`s
report makes it more likely that the central bank will end its current
round of interest rate hikes earlier than previously expected.
DAVID KELLY, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PUTNAM INVESTMENTS: I hope what they see
is an economy which is basically balanced, because if they see that, then
monetary policy ought to be balanced. And we do expect them to raise
interest rates one more time at the end of this month to 4.5 percent. I
hope they realize that`s enough and leave things there for the rest of the
year.
GURVEY: The markets are uncertain about that forecast. Futures prices
are indicating at least a fifty-fifty chance of another interest rate hike
at the Fed`s March meeting. Scott Gurvey, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, New
York.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright
(c) 2005 Community Television Foundation of South Florida,
Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
01/06/06: Congress Is Ready To Rewrite The Rules On Pension Plans
LINDA O'BRYON: Shares of IBM rose almost 3 percent today on the news we told
you about yesterday that it is freezing its defined pension plan. Private
sector employers have been turning away from traditional pension plans for
years. But as more and more public companies are making the move, Congress
is moving as well to change the current pension rules. Stephanie Dhue
reports.
STEPHANIE DHUE, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: Employees at
IBM now join workers at Verizon, Motorola, Hewlett Packard and other
companies who have seen their defined benefit pension plans frozen. The
companies blame global competition and rising benefit costs. But experts
say lawmakers are also responsible for not clearly defining pension rules.
SYLVESTER SCHIEBER, VICE PRES, WATSON WYATT: They are partly here to
protect the general public, but they are also here to help establish a
business environment in which companies can operate on an effective and
efficient basis. They are not doing their job.
DHUE: It`s a delicate balancing act for congressional lawmakers. On
one hand, they need to shore up the Federal agency that guarantees
pensions, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. It currently has a $23
billion and growing, deficit. On the other hand, they want employers to
keep defined benefit plans. But companies say defined benefit plans have
become too dicey. Swings in interest rates and investment performances
help determine the amounts businesses must contribute to their pension
funds in a given year. Proposed legislation would require companies to
fund plans at a higher rate and pay higher premiums to fund the PBGC, which
insures the plans.
LYNN DUDLEY: Any time you change -- you increase cost and you increase
risk for an employer voluntarily maintaining a benefits program, you are
really forcing them to reconsider that program and it is a factor.
DHUE: Companies now don`t know how much to fund their plans since
Congress has yet to pass new pension legislation.
RON GEBHARDTSBAUER, AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ACTUARIES: If they don`t pass
this by around April, employers have to put money into their pension plan
on April 15 by law, and they need to know how much that is, so they really
need Congress to pass it before then.
DHUE: Experts say if companies continue bailing out of defined benefit
plans, Congress may have even bigger problems down the road. Retirement
risk under 401(k) plans falls on the individual and many retirees may
outlive their savings and turn to the government for help. Stephanie Dhue,
NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
1/06/06: Middleby Corporation Is Anything But Middle Of The Road
LINDA O`BRYON: Quite a day it was. A 120-year-old company in the Midwest is
proof that old dogs can learn new tricks and make money doing it. You`ve
probably never heard of it, but the Middleby Corporation is one of the
leading restaurant equipment manufacturers in the U.S. Diane Eastabrook
profiles the company that says technology is its recipe for success.
DIANE EASTABROOK, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: In the
commercial pizza making business, natural gas is currently one of the
priciest commodities. But it wasn`t so expensive four years ago when Elgin
Illinois-based Middleby Corporation rolled out it`s first energy efficient
conveyor oven.
SELIM BASSOUL, CHAIRMAN & CEO, MIDDLEBY CORP: It took almost 18 months
to convince people that energy is a big thing and finally we got a boost
from first the prices of energy going up. The other thing is auto makers
like Toyota and Honda helped us with their hybrid cars.
EASTABROOK: Innovation has helped make Middleby one of the most
successful restaurant equipment manufacturers. Its brands include Marshal,
Southbend, and Blodgett. Analysts expect the company`s 2005 sales to be up
roughly 16 percent over the previous year, more than triple the industry
average. Its stock is up nearly 80 percent year over year. For Bassoul,
innovation begins with spotting trends. When he joined Middleby less than
a decade ago, he focused the company`s attention on designing equipment for
quick serve restaurants instead of mom and pop shops.
BASSOUL: We see a lot of menu changes. You see it also at TGI
Friday`s or at the Papa Johns where they continue introducing addition to
pizza, chicken wings, chicken strips and we see those driving the demands
of our equipment.
EASTABROOK: Currently Middleby is demanding more from its products.
It will soon begin selling a convection oven that doubles as a dishwasher
and a stove with self-cleaning burners.
So if I spill spaghetti sauce on one of these burners what would happen?
BASSOUL: It will de-clog itself. It will self clean itself.
EASTABROOK: Middleby also looks for ideas from its customers, like the
culinary school at nearby Elgin Community College.
MIKE ZEMA: We have a piece of equipment for example, that`s used
primarily for pasta cooking, but we found we could also use it for cooking
vegetables in.
EASTABROOK: Middleby says it is proof that customers will pay for
technology and that has helped it keep nearly all of its manufacturing in
the U.S. But analysts says maintaining that strategy could become harder.
JAMES CLEMENT: What we think bears watching, particularly looking
forward is you know to what extent does international competition come up?
To what extent do competitors decide to perhaps leverage a lower cost
workforce in for example Asia?
EASTABROOK: What`s up next for Middleby? Bassoul says the company is
developing new technologies that will focus on automation, safety and even
faster cooking and baking times. Diane Eastabrook, NIGHTLY BUSINESS
REPORT, Elgin, Illinois.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
1/06/06: "Market Monitor"-Robert Drach, publisher of the "Drach Weekly Research Report"
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Robert Drach, publisher
of the "Drach Weekly Research Report" based in Tallahassee, Florida.
Welcome back to NBR Bob.
ROBERT DRACH, " DRACH WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT": Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: Gee, I hope you didn`t break your arm today reaching for Dow
11,000.
DRACH: Yes I did, but next week I`ll use the other one.
KANGAS: OK. Judging by the nice rally in stocks today, investors
apparently believe the weaker than expected December employment report is a
plus because it will give the Federal Reserve more incentive to stop
boosting interest rates. Do you buy that argument?
DRACH: I think what you have seen the last week is just buy and demand
from earlier pension funding. But interest rates are going to play a
dominant role looking ahead and the Fed I think will pause. After two full
years of interest rate increases at every FOMC meeting, I think they are
due to pause not in the January meeting, but probably in March, very close.
KANGAS: And when the yield curve gets back to normal, long rate`s a
little higher than short rates, then you`ll be a happy camper, right?
DRACH: Yeah, you have two elements here. One is you first need the
Fed to pause on short rates, but the yield curve is going to go back to a
normal slope. It always has. So you are going to have long-term rates
going up. So you can get a lot of euphoria off people about the short-term
rates, but they still have the problem of the long-term rate increases.
That`s coming.
KANGAS: When normalization comes, the market will resume an upturn is
what you`re saying.
DRACH: Yeah, but you`re going to go through a choppy period before you
get there.
KANGAS: I understand. A lot of people do know that you`ve been running
a model and strictly a model portfolio for nightlybusinessreport.com Web
site for quite a while now, over 10 years. Let`s have a look how it
compared to last year and the first time in a long time one of the averages
beat you and that was the Standard & Poor`s 500.
DRACH: We couldn`t shake loose of them last year unfortunately.
KANGAS: OK, now, let`s take a look at how that portfolio, the model
portfolio has been doing since its inception in 1995. Look at that, 277
percent, very good. I congratulate you, much better than the other major
averages.
DRACH: Hopefully we`ll take more advantage this year.
KANGAS: OK. Now on your last visit with us, this past July 8th, you
gave us four recommendations from the buy side. Let`s have a look to see
how they fared since then. First to Alberto and Culver and Cintas, not
bad, nearly 9 percent and nearly 5 percent appreciation. And the other
two, Family Dollar Stores and McCormick were down less than the others were
up. So not a bad combination really.
DRACH: Yeah, but it was a very tough year, held hostage with the Fed
all year.
KANGAS: I understand. It was a tough year. Bob, I want to know if you
have any new recommendations for our viewers at this time.
DRACH: I would say you have to stay with the highest quality stocks
that are lagging or discounted. You can have GE in there.
KANGAS: OK. Let`s have a look at that chart. It is well below its
recent highs is it not?
DRACH: You want them lagging.
KANGAS: You like them when no one else does, right.
DRACH: Absolutely.
KANGAS: OK, let`s have - we`ve got time for another few.
DRACH: Home Depot.
KANGAS: Home Depot, there it is, similar chart to GE actually.
DRACH: Yeah and this don`t look bad, Applebee`s would be the next
choice.
KANGAS: Let`s have a look at Applebee`s chart and oh boy, that one is
well down, down for reasons that can`t be corrected, I assume. That`s why
you like it?
DRACH: We want to stay with the highest A plus quality and I would say
MDC Holdings if you want to see something really out of favor.
KANGAS: OK, now that`s a home builder. Why should that be so out of
favor, although it did get a downgrade by the Friedman Billings brokerage
today from outperform to market perform.
DRACH: We usually buy them when the other people downgrade them and
then sell them back to them on the upgrade.
KANGAS: OK, I guess MDC is not typical of the other stocks in the home
building group.
DRACH: Well, the P/E is much lower. Its P/E is only six.
KANGAS: Bob, do you own any of these stocks that you`re recommending
personally?
DRACH: No, this is all based on a model which is educational, which
is.
KANGAS: Right.
DRACH: It`s pretty elemental, but to demonstrate to people how easy it
is and to understand how easy it is to beat the averages over time.
KANGAS: In other words, don`t buy them when they are bidding them up
big time. Buy them when no one wants them.
DRACH: Buy low, sell them high.
KANGAS: There you got, Bob as always, thank you for your insight. We
appreciate it.
DRACH: Thank you Paul.
KANGAS: My guest, Robert Drach, publisher of the "Drach Weekly
Research Report."
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
1/06/06: "The Week Ahead"
LINDA O'BRYON: Here`s a look at what`s happening next week. Our Friday
"market monitor" guest is James Grant, editor of "Grant`s Interest rate
Observer." On the economic calendar, Tuesday, it`s November`s wholesale
trade figures; Wednesday, it`s the weekly crude oil and gasoline inventory
numbers; Thursday, the November trade deficit, December import prices and
weekly jobless claims; and then on Friday, it`s November business
inventories and the December reports on retail sales and producer prices.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
1/06/06: "Paul Kangas' Stocks In The News"
PAUL KANGAS: As we said, Wall Street viewed the weaker than expected jobs
report as positive because it reinforced the belief the Federal Reserve
would end its rate hikes soon. Strong holiday sales at Best Buy and upbeat
comments about Google and Yahoo! stocks also helped the Dow post a 50 point
gain at noon when the NASDAQ was up 19 points. Well, the bulls had the
bears running to cover short positions which helped stocks surge higher
this afternoon.
The Dow industrial average closed with a gain of 77.16 at 10,959.31.
That`s a four-and-a-half year high. It rose in all of this week`s four
trading days for a total advance of 241.81 points. The NASDAQ Composite was
up 28 3/4 points exactly today at 2305.62. It also rose every trading day
this week for an overall gain of 100.30 points. The Standard & Poor`s 500
was up 11.97, ending at 1285.45 today. Over in the bond market, the 10-year
note closed down 5/32 at par and 31/32, putting the yield at 4.38 percent.
Volume leader on the New York exchange, Verizon Communications (VZ) on
33.6 million shares, the company completed its merger with MCI today.
Then came EMC (EMC) with a $0.25 loss. The company disclosed its
profit outlook for the fourth quarter is about $0.06 a share in earnings.
That`s after charges and about in line with most Wall Street estimates.
Nortel Networks (NT) was up a dime.
No change in Lucent Technologies (LU).
Ford Motor (F) up $0.17, fifth in big board volume.
Then Pfizer (PFE) with a $0.27 gain.
Motorola (MOT) was up $0.82. The Piper Jaffray brokerage boosted its
price target from $23 to $25 a share. It`s just about there, but is saying
that there should be some strong near-term results from Motorola. Motorola
also announced it`s in a cell phone pact with Yahoo!.
United Micro Electronics (UMC) was up $0.14.
And then Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) up $0.19, but late today, the "Wall
Street Journal" reported former Vice Chairman Tom Coughlin will plead
guilty to Federal fraud and tax evasion charges.
General Electric (GE), tenth in volume, was up $0.25 a share.
Best Buy (BBY), there you see it, up $3.55. December same store sales
up a respectable 5.8 percent. The company said its fourth quarter earnings
as a result of that will be near the top of its earlier guidance.
On the other hand, Circuit City (CC) was up only $0.15, even though
its December same store sales were up a whopping 10.8 percent, but I think
Wall Street was expecting even bigger sale boost for Circuit City.
Laidlaw International (LI), which is in the busing business, had good
first quarter earnings, $0.58, up from $0.24 last year, $0.17 better than
the Street consensus. Also the company said its 2006 earnings estimates
will be boosted from $1.20 to $1.35, all the way up to as much as $1.50 a
share, good news for Laidlaw shareholders there.
Parker-Hannifin (PH) up $3.73. The company says its North American
industrial orders rose 13 percent in December. The company makes fluid and
control systems.
Ashland Incorporated (ASH) up $5.05. The company sees first quarter
earnings above Street estimates, which range as high as $0.71 a share.
Great Atlantic & Pacific (GAP) losing $2.92. Third quarter loss,
$1.74, not as bad as the loss of $1.96 last year, but the Street estimate
was for a loss of only $0.56 a share and the company`s third quarter sales
tumbled 37 percent.
Delta and Pine Land (DLP) off $0.93. The cotton seed producer had a
first quarter loss of $0.27 a share, much bigger than the $0.12 loss last
year and revenues down 44 percent.
Borg Warner Incorporated (BWA) down $1.55. KeyBanc brokerage
downgraded it from "aggressive buy" to just a "hold" rating.
NASDAQ`s most active, Google (GOOG), hitting another record closing
high, up $14.42. Today Goldman Sachs boosted its price target on the stock
from $400 to $500 a share.
Microsoft (MSFT) on the other hand, down $0.08 after CS First Boston
downgraded it from "out perform" to just a "neutral" rating.
Cisco Systems (CSCO) up $0.42.
Apple Computer (AAPL) rising $1.92, no doubt on optimism over the
company`s Mac World Exposition next week.
Sandisk (SNDK) up $4.92, doing very well, fifth in dollar volume.
Yahoo! gained $1.68. Goldman Sachs today boosted Yahoo!`s 2006
earnings estimate by $0.06 and also boosted its price target from $42 to
$50 a share.
Qualcomm (QCOM) in there with a $2.15 gain.
Intel (INTC) $0.04 rise.
Oracle (ORCL) up $0.33.
Tenth in volume was Dell (DELL) down $0.11.
Advanced Magnetics (AVM) on the American Exchange, up $2. Think
Equity brokerage began covering the stock with a "buy" recommendation and a
$24 a share target, well above where it is.
And those are the stocks in the news tonight.
Nightly
Business Report transcripts are available on-line post broadcast.
The program is transcribed by eMediaMillWorks. Updates may
be posted at a later date. The views of our guests and commentators
are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Community Television Foundation of South Florida, Inc. Nightly
Business Report, or WPBT. Information presented on Nightly
Business Report is not and should not be considered as investment
advice. Copyright (c) 2005 Community Television Foundation
of South Florida, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Terms of use.
01/06/06:
Market Stats
NET PERCENT
CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
DOW CLOSE 10959.31 +77.16 + .7
HIGH 10968.84
LOW 10875.45
NASDAQ COMP. 2305.62 +28.75 +1.3
HIGH 2306.72
LOW 2281.01
VOLUME 1,775.1
PREVIOUS 1,793.7
UP VOLUME 1,394.2
DOWN VOLUME 339.6
DOW TRANSPORTS 4214.28 -19.66 - .5
DOW UTILITIES 415.15 +4.24 + 1.0
CLOSING TICK +595
S&P 500 1285.45 +11.97 + .9
S&P 100 585.02 +4.26 + .7
MIDCAP 400 762.78 +8.48 + 1.1
REUTERS/CRB 339.47 +3.67 + 1.1
NYSE COMPOSITE 8031.66 +87.60 + 1.1
VALUE LINE 425.71 +4.30 + 1.0
RUSSELL 2000 699.39 +7.62 + 1.1
DJW 5000 12901.69 +121.87 + 1.0
U.S. TREASURIES
5-YEAR NOTE 4.375%
Dec. 15,2010 100 8/32 -5/32 4.32
10-YEAR NOTE 4.50%
Nov. 15,2015 100 31/32 -5/32 4.38
30-YEAR NOTE 5.375%
Feb. 15, 2031 112 2/32 -8/32 4.56
LEHMAN BROS.
LONG BOND INDEX 1774.80 -4.01
DOW CLOSE 10959.31 +77.16 + .7
ADVANCES 2520
DECLINES 823
NEW HIGHS 373
NEW LOWS 13
NET PERCENT
NYSE MOST ACTIVES 4PM CLOSE CHANGE CHANGE
VZ Verizon Comms 31.35 +.12 +.4
EMC EMC Corp 13.73 -.25 -1.8
NT Nortel Networks 3.40 +.10 +3.0
LU Lucent Tech 2.77 unch. unch.
F Ford Motor 8.52 +.17 +2.0
PFE Pfizer 24.85 +.27 +1.1
MOT Motorola 24.34 +.82 +3.5
UMC United Microelec 3.26 +.14 +4.5
WMT Wal-Mart Stores 45.88 +.19 +.4
GE GE 35.48 +.25 +.7
NASDAQ CLOSE 2305.62 + 28.75 + 1.3
VOLUME 2,335.5
PREVIOUS 1,948.7
ADVANCES 2021
DECLINES 1037
NASDAQ ACTIVES
GOOG Google 465.66 +14.42 +3.2
MSFT Microsoft 26.91 -.08 -.3
CSCO Cisco Systems 18.77 +.42 +2.3
AAPL Apple Computer 76.30 +1.92 +2.6
SNDK Sandisk 73.95 +4.92 +7.1
YHOO Yahoo! 43.21 +1.68 +4.1
QCOM Qualcomm 47.36 +2.15 +4.8
INTC Intel 26.31 +.04 +.2
ORCL Oracle 13.12 +.33 +2.6
DELL Dell 30.64 -.11 -.4
AMEX CLOSE 1804.46 + 22.84 + 1.3
INDEX SHARES
DIA DIAMONDS TRUST 109.50 +.65 +.6
QQQ NASDAQ 100 42.68 +.76 +1.8
SPY S&P DEP.RECEIPTS 128.44 +1.06 +.8
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
Display Name
BBY Best Buy 47.05 +3.55 +8.2
CC Circuit City 22.94 +.15 +.7
LI Laidlaw Intl 25.50 +3.00 +13.3
PH Parker-Hannifin 71.69 +3.73 +5.5
ASH Ashland Inc 64.11 +5.05 +8.6
GAP Great A & P 29.31 -2.92 -9.1
DLP Delta & Pineland 22.72 -.93 -3.9
BWA Borg-Warner 58.21 -1.55 -2.6
AVM Adv Magnetics 13.60 +2.00 +17.2
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